Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August

A still greater Coalition lead in Queensland underwrites its modest ascendancy in Newspoll over recent months, according to newly published breakdowns.

The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.

• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.

• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.

• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.

• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.

• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.

The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,230 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August”

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  1. Because the Yellow rag, The Washington Examiner, is your go to source for the truth. Not.

    Anyway, anyone who knows anything about politcian’s speeches would know that speechwriters write the speeches for the politicians and the politicians approve them. So, if anyone should be condemned for being a plagiarist, it’s the speechwriter.

  2. Lars Von Trier @ #3148 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:39 pm

    frednk says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 8:35 pm
    LVT
    SO you think trump is going to win because someone else said:

    “Love is more powerful than hate. Hope is more powerful than fear. And light is more powerful than dark.”

    Yuo really are away with the unicorns.
    _______________________
    No frednk but Biden had an embarrassing episode some years ago where he was pinged for ripping off Neil Kinnock in a speech. Seems he hasn’t lost the habit?

    lars would have preferred:

    Power through strength.
    Strength through love.
    Love through sex.

  3. Boy was I wRONg.

    Bit early to confirm that he’s an empty suit but I admit it doesn’t look promising. I’m not inspired.

  4. C@tmomma
    So when you praised Joe Biden’s “powerful” speech you really should have said ‘Hail to the speech writer ?” 😆

  5. Sprocket ‘So a graceful ‘duck and cover’ would suffice to avoid the decapitation…’

    Collapsible chairs sounds the go to me.

    Captain issues a 10 second warning, klaxon horn sounds, everybody straps in, button is pushed, chairs unfold to the “FLAT” position.

    Pass under the bridge, klaxon sounds again, another button pressed, process is reversed until “UPRIGHT” position is restored.

  6. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 8:29 pm
    Alternatively, they could employ a barge for the last 2 stops, and return. Or a trireme, good employment idea from GladysB.

    I mentioned earlier my suspicion that Transdev really wants to cease serving Parramatta and terminate at Rydalmere due to the very slow speed necessary (and time taken) beyond Rydalmere. Having ferries that are a nuisance to take under the two bridges in this section gives them a perfect excuse to claim services should cease. It would be cheaper for them to substitute a Rydalmere to Parramatta bus which is done now at times of very low tide.

    I grew up in Parramatta and never saw this section of waterway until the ferries started so I have a bit of an attachment to the service.

  7. Poroti,
    Yep, they are playing a long game. I have fundy rels who believe much of that conspiracy stuff but that could just be coincidental.

  8. Exactly poroti, it’s almost like he is waiting for someone better to stand up. He knows he is not the man.
    Women seem to be dealing with stuff pretty good these days as leaders. Why doesn’t the ALP try it again.

  9. As Keating once said “its not the jockey its the horse”.

    Only 25% of the NT electorate support Labor as first pref. Thats the future in the States too.

    25% first pref vote nationally translates to about 50 seats in the HoR.

    Labor will govern in coalition or not at all – to invert Turtle Bowen’s dictum.

  10. Recently there have been some very promising stories about a peace deal in Afghanistan. Could a peace deal in Afghanistan be a big “game changer” for Trump ? The time line of recent events says a peace deal is possible before the election.

    After his election someone noted that the higher the % of people in an area who had been affected by war service, as in death and injury of people there, the more like they voted for Trump. For all his faults Trump has so far been the first president since ??? to have not started a new war. Could a weariness of the seemingly ‘forever wars’ be his ace in the hole ?

    Some recent news. Remember, until recently the Taliban would refuse to directly talk to the Government.

    Taliban set powerful negotiating team for intra-Afghan talks
    BY KATHY GANNON, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

    Posted Aug 23, 2020 12:42 pm MDT Last Updated Aug 23, 2020 at 12:44 pm MDT
    ISLAMABAD — The Taliban’s chief has finalized a negotiating team that is to have sweeping decision-making powers in upcoming intra-Afghan negotiations, the top Taliban negotiator told The Associated Press on Sunday.

    Maulvi Hibatullah Akhunzada hand-picked the 20-member team, 13 of whom come from the Taliban’s leadership council — around half of the council’s total members.

    https://www.660citynews.com/2020/08/23/taliban-set-powerful-negotiating-team-for-intra-afghan-talks/


  11. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 9:04 pm

    Labor will govern in coalition or not at all –

    What part of “Labor won a majority ” do you find difficult to understand?

  12. frednk says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 9:07 pm

    Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 9:04 pm

    Labor will govern in coalition or not at all –

    What part of “Labor won a majority ” do you find difficult to understand?
    __________________________________________
    If you don’t understand the point I’m trying to make I can’t help you!

  13. Yes, Lars, but the point you’re trying to make is marred by the fact that (using the same numbers) it’s worse for the Libs.

    If Labor gets less than 25% and Labor wins, Labor’s not going to be complaining.

  14. Lars Von Trier @ #3165 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 9:04 pm

    As Keating once said “its not the jockey its the horse”.

    Only 25% of the NT electorate support Labor as first pref. Thats the future in the States too.

    25% first pref vote nationally translates to about 50 seats in the HoR.

    Labor will govern in coalition or not at all – to invert Turtle Bowen’s dictum.

    Umm this Election Labor is about 40%.

    So, you’re living in the past again.

  15. Lars Von Trier @8.53pm.
    Yep.
    Morrison has been up to his knees in his own shit since before the bush fires. Morrisons falls headfirst into his own shit often. Showers metaphorically and blusters along. Delays parliament. Delays the budget. Delays taking responsibility for blatant corruption in his own ministry. Delays responsibility for the deaths of many older Covid fatalities.
    Just delays any responsibility, end of story.
    Five years Lars. Nah. Will pull the pin to spend more time with Jen and the girls after having secured his lifelong PMs pension and lurks, purchased the waterfront and lined up a sinecure with some dumbarse supporter with more money than sense.
    Lars, you’re full of it!

  16. No zoomster, the point is Labor commands 25% of the NT Electorate, the CLP or Libs command 20% and those who choose not to vote represent 35%.

    I don’t support either of the 2 party duopoly.

    Its people like you who either knowingly or unknowingly support an undemocratic system.

    Those who abstain are disproportionately indigenous in the NT. That’s a very telling thing about how unjust the NT electoral politics is.


  17. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 9:09 pm
    ..
    __________________________________________
    If you don’t understand the point I’m trying to make I can’t help you!

    Given the outcome perhaps your point needs to be reconsidered.
    x can’t win with more than 30% of first preferences is clearly nonsense.

  18. Lars

    Nice attempt at deflection, but you had moved on from NT and were applying the figures to Federal politics.

    And the nature of the NT population explains the voting turnout, not dissatisfaction with the two party system.

  19. davidwh
    I’m sure you did and for some things they deserved criticism. It is just the thought of uber mild mannered you ever being the subject of a j’accuse re being a troll . It is truly a LOL.

  20. Lars Von Trier
    Even the Liberal senator was more honest, they didn’t vote because their solution to corona virus was to disappear.

  21. Simon Katich @ #3003 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 5:09 pm

    Just like Parramatta is on the Northern Beaches.

    Nope. Double wrong because when you say “northern Beaches” I think you are referring to the “North Shore” in that comparison. Even then…. wrong. But anywhose, it would be more like saying people in Parramatta and Northern Beaches are from Sydney – people in Peats Ridge and Wamberal are from the Central Coast.

    You said it yourself, peeps up there go to Tuggerah Westfields for shopping instead of Hornsby. Even tho a similar distance. Damned if I know how anybody can go to Tuggerah regularly and stay sane. The place is a hell hole.

    And…. the cricket team from up there play at Adcock Park.

    And…. the Avon lady lived in Ourimbah.

    You are raving. Tell me how people who live in Glenbrook live in the ‘western suburbs’ rather than ‘up the Blue Mountains’. Just ask them.

    None of the tens of people I know in the Peats Ridge, Mangrove Mountain, Kulnura, Bucketty area think of themselves as being from ‘the Central Coast’. Just ask them. You, of course, know better. Just ask you. Prat!

    All of this is of course, completely beside the point. The ABC needlessly concerned a couple of hundred thousand Central Coast people with a misleading, beat up load of crap. That is the point. They failed in their main function. One of the two reporters involved has replied to my direct email complaint with an apology.

  22. What exactly do you mean zoomster by “And the nature of the NT population explains the voting turnout, not dissatisfaction with the two party system”

  23. Poroti it was in the early days of my arrival here. Back then there was a poster Richo I knew from another forum. He was a real lefty and spoke up on my behalf.

  24. I ‘ll let others read the article to discover whether RDN is referring to himself or other politicians:

    Departing di Natale bemoans ‘failure’ to take real action on climate change

    1 hour ago by Chip Le Grand (Age headline)

  25. In the NT 30% of the population is aboriginal. There would still be a percentage that could pack up shop and go bush. The Liberal senator said they did. It seems to me it would be a vary vary sane thing to do in a pandemic.

  26. Lars

    A % of the indigenous population is nomadic. Another % lives remotely.

    Not at all unexpectedly, sometimes people aren’t even aware an election is on.

  27. LVT
    You have tracked with your mob to some unknown spot to escape the pandemic. You going to come back to vote? Get real.

  28. So frednk you and this unnamed Liberal Senator share the same prejudices ?

    What next your going to say the Liberal Senator gave you this secret message through the Telly?

  29. I see zoomster and what do you base this assessment of the indigenous population on zoomster? Or is it your assumption?

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