The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:
• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.
• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.
• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.
• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.
• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.
• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.
• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.
The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.
Older, non-uni educated, males living in Queensland and South Australia, thanks for nothing.
It is enough to turn you off politics all together. That anyone could vote for the Lib and Nat Coalition is about as plausible as a horse knitting a tie.
But guess what? The old cart horse has ordered more blue wool.
These results show a dire need for Labor to appeal to low income low educated people.
Take a policy that appeals to both One Nation voters and Greens voters. Do a people’s bank. Think about Universal Basic Income. Two policies that appeal to both left and right.
Continue with the aged care attacks. Starting with raising aged care and housing to a senior cabinet position.
Make your case economic security. It’s a narrow focus that will blend in to providing virtual power plants in public housing and other social housing projects.
As Queensland has shown if you do that you can progress social inclusivity with things like banning gay conversion therapy. Secure economically happy people will support changes to support all human rights not least Indigenous rights.
Edit: Remember 1 million people are now elegible to be represented by the ACTU affiliated Unemployment Union
Yes Labor you can move left. You can be in an official alliance with the Greens (not claiming this is true) and still win over North Queensland voters.
For those that doubt see Jacinda Adern’s Policy platform and campaign. The only adjustment is to counter the Palmer Newscorp propaganda supporting the LNP.
How very Trumpy those figures are for the Coalition. The Tradie focus is paying in spades for Morrison.
Yep, “Greensplaining” will fix it. No worries!
“ Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.”
For an outfit that has given native popularism a solid run for the last decade and assiduously cultivated the tradie – anti intellectual cult since 1996 those numbers are not Trumpian (over even at Pre-Trump Republican Party levels) and are not far out of whack with the national 2PP polling.
Polling by gender or age remains depressing however. Especially I suspect in Queensland and WA.
Democrats 1 Trump, a big fat zero:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-postal-cost-cutting-measures-shelved-until-after-election-20200819-p55n12.html
Bluebottle
Demonise the Greens means Labor loses. Adern won by not doing that. It’s also worth remembering Julie Bishop and Newscorpse did intervene in the NZ election as it looked like Adern would win.
Yes that’s how desperate the right became.
Your “Greensplaining” comment is exactly the demonisation I am talking about
Polling by gender or age remains depressing however. Especially I suspect in Queensland and WA.
I suspect a lot of the Sunshine State Golden Oldies, a vast majority in fact in their high rise apartments and canal estate homes, are solidly in the corner of the Coalition as they are the other assiduously-cultivated demographic, the Self-Funded Retirees.
Pleading to authority. Fail.
The Greens were always going to support Labor and Jacinda Ardern, she didn’t have to win them over at all. The fact of the matter is that Jacinda Ardern was able to come to government because she gained the support of Winston Peters from the Right.
https://www.trendswide.com/germany-to-extend-coronavirus-furlough-to-24-months-world-news/
“ I suspect a lot of the Sunshine State Golden Oldies, a vast majority in fact in their high rise apartments and canal estate homes, are solidly in the corner of the Coalition as they are the other assiduously-cultivated demographic, the Self-Funded Retirees.”
There are also a lot of older farmers and manual workers in Queensland. An issue in itself.
The retiree set mainly live in conclaves on the Gold-coast and Sunshine coasts, so that doesn’t explain why Labor does poorly in the outer Northern burbs of Vegas or these days in traditionally labor regional centres like Gladstone, Bundaberg, Rockhampton, McKay, Townsville …
And that’s it from me. I don’t have enough time to go around the mulberry bush with guytaur.
Cat
Unlike Australian Labor Ardern did not demonise the Greens.
There is a lesson there
Cat
It’s very simple. If you can pursue economic policy that can get Mark Latham and Bob Brown to vote for it you wedge the LNP from the left.
A_E,
And it looks like the Miners and their associated small business support network, still haven’t forgiven federal Labor either.
You can also see why the Coalition are attempting to crush the University sector and liberal arts disciplines in particular, except for those who can afford it and would likely have a predisposition towards the Coalition inherited from their wealthy parents.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Rob Harris reports that every Australian will get a free coronavirus vaccine dose as the Morrison government confirms on Wednesday an agreement to secure at least 25 million doses with a British pharmaceutical giant if trials prove successful.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/free-dose-for-every-aussie-agreement-to-buy-oxford-vaccine-if-it-works-20200818-p55mz7.html
This pair of medicos says that if we were to impose mandatory vaccination, we would need a scheme to look after the very few who may have a serious vaccine reaction. Many other countries have such a scheme to underpin their vaccination programs.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/vaccine-injury-compensation-is-the-moral-thing-to-do-20200817-p55mex.html
Chris Uhlmann believes that this pandemic has revealed the authoritarian streak in Australian governments. Sure thing Chris – let it rip!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-pandemic-has-revealed-the-authoritarian-streak-in-australian-governments-20200818-p55mrh.html
And Paul Kelly says that the fortress states are locking out the national interests.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/coronavirus-fortress-states-locking-out-the-national-interests/news-story/99e1c78213df82313a15018592b199f3
Kate Aubusson writes that a Sydney hotel quarantine guard has tested positive to coronavirus he most likely contracted from an international traveller staying at the Marriott Hotel in Circular Quay, before he went on to work at two other venues. Intensive investigations have been started.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-health-says-a-quarantine-hotel-guard-caught-covid-19-from-us-traveller-20200818-p55mwr.html
Cruise and quarantine mistakes happen. But finding a villain is less important than being upfront and learning from it quickly says the editorial in the AFR.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/learn-lessons-fast-to-bend-the-covid-19-curve-20200818-p55mp6
Ross Gittins tells us why he thinks we’ve been electing governments that damage our children’s future.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/we-ve-been-electing-governments-that-damage-our-children-s-future-20200818-p55mrj.html
Michael Pascoe opines that the National Cabinet has not worked and is not working.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/08/18/michael-pascoe-national-cabinet/
In criticising the federal government’s tardy management of aged care, Paul Bongiorno says that older Australians have every right to be very afraid.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/08/18/paul-bongiorno-older-australians-afraid/
A single mobile detection camera has raised almost as much during its first four months in operation as the NSW Police did for the same offence last financial year, with the opposition referring an excuse used by drivers to avoid fines to the Auditor-General. Money for jam!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mobile-phone-camera-loophole-referred-to-nsw-auditor-general-20200818-p55mth.html
According to Chip Le Grand, the Australian Defence Force COVID-19 taskforce commander has told a Senate inquiry that Victoria was offered the same support as NSW and Queensland to establish and maintain hotel quarantine regime.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/general-pulls-rank-on-premier-s-quarantine-claims-20200818-p55myl.html
Superannuation giants are warning investments in Australia’s economic recovery will be curtailed if the super guarantee increase does not go ahead as planned. And would you believe, it will all come down to the consideration of the intellectual giant Pauline Hanson.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/hanson-looms-as-key-vote-if-government-tries-changing-super-guarantee-20200817-p55mil.html
Dana McCauley reports that private hospitals are saying the loading designed to encourage young people into private health is deterring many from signing up after their 31st birthday.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/push-to-raise-age-of-lifetime-health-cover-penalty-to-35-20200818-p55muu.html
Pensioners won’t get the automatic boost to their bank balances they’re used to in September because inflation went backwards in the June quarter. The only welfare benefit that will go up in the regular six-monthly review is the single parenting payment, which will rise by $3 a fortnight on September 20, Department of Social Services officials confirmed to a parliamentary committee yesterday.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-pension-increase-in-september-20200818-p55mym.html
The Prime Minister’s sorrowful words over the deaths in aged care homes could hardly be described as those of a sincere man, writes John Lord.
https://theaimn.com/when-sorry-seems-to-be-the-hardest-word/
Peter Hannam explains how another season of mass fish-kills looms across the Murray-Darling Basin unless more water is released into the system.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/threat-of-more-mass-fish-kills-across-murray-darling-basin-20200818-p55mwz.html
Jennifer Hewett goes behind Clive Palmer’s showdown with WA and looks at his chances.
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/behind-clive-palmer-s-showdown-with-wa-20200818-p55mwn
The president of the Australian Medical Association has slammed governments’ “head-in-the-sand attitude” towards ill-fitting face masks, which are disproportionately endangering female and racially diverse healthcare workers.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/19/ama-condemns-governments-appalling-approach-to-face-masks-for-covid-healthc-workers
Although most hospitals are coping right now, COVID-19 has brought up many questions about how health-care resources should be rationed during a pandemic. This article in The Conversation reveals how various health services are to make decisions on who gets ICU resources in the event they become overwhelmed.
https://theconversation.com/in-victoria-whether-you-get-an-icu-bed-could-depend-on-the-hospital-144209
Joel Gibson has some advice on how to avoid being ripped off by the spivs that have moved in on essential pandemic supplies.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/saving/how-to-avoid-being-ripped-off-when-buying-your-pandemic-essentials-20200817-p55mhf.html
Jennifer Wilson explains why we must confront the racism of ‘The Australian’ cartoon.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/why-we-must-confront-the-racism-of-the-australian-cartoon,14216
Advocacy groups say up to one million retirees could suffer an income hit after Westpac became the first major bank to scrap its first-half dividend payment.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/banking/2020/08/18/retirees-incomes-westpac-dividends/
Three million Australians have now applied to the Super Early Release Scheme, with $30 billion already paid out and more than 500,000 members emptying their accounts. Harry Chemay takes a look at the nation’s retirement system, which costs 10 times more to run than the Tax Office and has enabled the highly paid to accelerate their wealth precipitously.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/snouts-in-the-superannuation-trough-turbo-charging-paul-keatings-legacy/
The AFR hits out at China’s blatant commercial attack after its dumping accusation about Australian wine.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/china-s-blatant-commercial-attack-20200818-p55mw0
Jacinda Ardern has hit back at idiot Trump after he trumpeted NZ’s “big surge that the US doesn’t want to have”.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/patently-wrong-ardern-fires-back-at-trump-as-mystery-auckland-case-found-among-new-infections-20200818-p55mrf.html
A US Senate intelligence panel has found that Russia used Republican political operative Paul Manafort, the WikiLeaks website and others to try to influence the 2016 US presidential election to help now-US President Donald Trump’s campaign.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/putin-ordered-democratic-hack-to-boost-trump-in-2016-senate-committee-finds-20200819-p55n0s.html
Matthew Knott tells is how Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders brought focus to a sprawling online Democratic Party convention
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/obama-and-sanders-bring-focus-to-sprawling-online-convention-20200818-p55mvd.html
Cheating is a way of life for Donald Trump – and now it’s his election strategy declares Arwa Mahdawi.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/18/cheating-is-a-way-of-life-for-donald-trump-and-now-its-his-election-strategy
Cost-cutting measures across the US Postal Service that could have affected the integrity of the presidential election will be shelved until after the poll, reports Farrah Tomazin.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-postal-cost-cutting-measures-shelved-until-after-election-20200819-p55n12.html
Cartoon Corner
Cathy Wilcox
David Rowe
Mark Knight
David Pope
Simon Letch
Matt Golding
Fiona Katauskas
Peter Broelman
Johannes Leak
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
From the US
Morning all. Thanks BK Beyond the WA Premier proving Clive Palmer lied in a radio interview about his $30 billion claim on WA, why exactly was the Federal government supporting him in court? He is hardly acting in the national interest.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-18/clive-palmer-seeking-tens-of-billions-documents-reveal/12570338
Remember, there’s no collusion!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/18/us/politics/senate-intelligence-russian-interference-report.html
Biden’s poll lead is amazingly narrowing! Needs to shift from the let Trump sink himself stratergery.
New covid 19 cases are down to 40,000 per day in the States. There may also be a correlation between declining covid cases and trump’s rating improving?
As for Labor – the zero target stratergery is delivering the expected results!
Lars
I disagree with you on a lot of things. However the polling numbers are clear.
What Labor is doing now is failing.
It’s why I suggested a change. Demonising both the Greens and zone Nation has not won voters to Labor’s cause.
Lars Von Trier @ #24 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 7:29 am
Lars Von Trier @ #23 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 7:27 am
It’s Ground Hog day, again!
guytaur @ #25 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 7:40 am
GG
Your comment is Groundhog Day. So is the polling.
You have been saying the same thing from before Gillard was PM.
The coalition leading with men and among English speakers but not with women is very Trumpy 😀
Professor #ScottyFromMarketing Farnsworth, out from under the doona to announce “Good news, everyone!”
#WereGoingToDie
Early on in the year there were some who feared/claimed the lock down would cause as many or more deaths as covid 19. Their usual “winter peak” for deaths seems to have been cancelled this year
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122476223/coronavirus-while-covid19-takes-lives-around-the-world-new-zealands-response-has-led-to-fewer-deaths-from-all-causes
Good news everyone, says Scotty. We’re getting a vaccine. Underlying message: It won’t be long before you can all relax and get back to normal.
“I don’t have any responsibility for Victoria, mate.”
Who needs a vaccine ? Clive and Ghunt have already ‘saved the nation’ by securing a supply of the miracle drug Hydroxychloroquine, It was in all the papers, especially Rupert’s 🙂
How Trump gets elected.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/18/she-loved-sanders-she-watched-convention-see-if-biden-can-win-her-over/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_sandersfan-320pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
1. The election is not about policy, it’s a referendum on Trump.
2. Democrats casting a big tent to include people like Kasich and AOC is a good thing because it shows they are serious about appealing to a wide range of voters, not just voters who think like Kim.
Confessions @ #38 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 6:01 am
Ah the Rick Wilson model. So the model of the guy who leveraged racism and all things republican for decades, was in fact one of those responsible for the conditions that created Trump and yet people are following his advice. Great strategy.
Confessions @ #31 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 5:48 am
Trump was very very lucky to get Mueller.
lizzie @ #34 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 5:53 am
When?
And what happens if the trials are unsuccessful and someone else develops a vaccine?
And what happens if the trials are unsuccessful and someone else develops a vaccine?
It will be quietly forgotten, never to be mentioned again and no one will ever ask.
“Sounds like a nice lady.”
***
“Late last year I was also diagnosed for the first time with anxiety and depression, which although I still believe never stopped me from breaking big political stories, has not been fun.
“My psychologist has this crazy idea I’m a rather complex individual because of my dad’s suicide when I was three years old. She says I’m high functioning which is a polite way of saying I’m an annoying, relentless perfectionist. I am genuinely sorry if anyone has been bruised by this.”
– Samantha Maiden
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/samantha-maiden-announces-resignation-from-sky-news-20180628-p4zobn.html
lizzie @ #41 Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 – 6:06 am
Barrie almost got it.
“aged care and preventing you from getting sick while you’re there is a federal responsibility, but when it all goes to shit, it is the states’ responsibility.”
“The Greens were always going to support Labor and Jacinda Ardern, she didn’t have to win them over at all. The fact of the matter is that Jacinda Ardern was able to come to government because she gained the support of Winston Peters from the Right.”
***
Winston Peters is actually a left winger, he’s just socially conservative. Think Bob Katter except not quite as nuts lol. Left wing conservatives are a rare breed but they do exist.
Scrott used the word ‘pandemic’ .Doesn’t that make the issue a Fed one ? I checked out the Australian pandemic plan. It was what we used and most countries have one and like Australia was designed for ‘influenza’. Australia followed it ,as did NZ until they realised this virus was not like influenza and so switched to ‘elimination’. Anyway, here it is from 2019 and you will be interested to note that the ugly mug at the top of the document belongs to our Reichspud. Not Ghunt or the like but Dutton. So he should have been front and centre in this pandemic and yet he seems only to pop up for a chat with ‘Ray’ now and again.
edi Hmm document below on the covers says 2019 yet the pic is of Dutton. I suppose it is all in Ghunts lap now he is minister. The plan was Dutton’s.
.
Australian Health
Management Plan for
Pandemic Influenza
The Hon Peter Dutton MP
Minister for Health
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/519F9392797E2DDCCA257D47001B9948/$File/w-AHMPPI-2019.PDF
Despite the outbreak of weird Sam Maiden paranoia last night, everybody knows Labor will make peace with News Limited at some point.
I doubt they will want to go through another 2019.
The lack of air travel is a complicating factor but at some point there will be the audience with Rupert. If it was good enough for one K Rudd …
Firefox
It’s never too late for anyone. Resigning from Sky News May just be the best thing to help someone’s mental health.
This tells you a lot about what I think of Sky News. Australia’s Fox network