Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August

A still greater Coalition lead in Queensland underwrites its modest ascendancy in Newspoll over recent months, according to newly published breakdowns.

The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.

• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.

• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.

• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.

• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.

• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.

The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,230 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August”

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  1. The ferries were heaps cheaper than Aussie made ones so a few passenger decapitations is acceptable collateral damage for the savings.

    With any luck they will be “pre-palliative” aged care residents, in God’s Waiting Room already. If the bridge doesn’t get them, the virus would have.

    The Economy Needs their sacrifice.

  2. “There’s nothing more amusing on PB than someone stuck on stupid who repeats the same thing over and over again and thinks they have political insight.

    But, you’re a special case because you actually think that you are relevant to mainstream politics.”

    ***

    You actually think I want to be part of your mainstream establishment politics? lol I stopped voting for Labor long ago mate. That’s not really my go, in case you hadn’t noticed…

  3. The interesting thing in the NT is only 65% of the electorate voted.

    If you take 40% of the 65% who voted as Labor votes and 30% as CLP that tells me the 2 party conservative duopoly represents about 45% of the total NT population.

    Its actually the most decayed political system in the nation!

    The Labor PV is about 25% – its a portent of the future!

  4. Lars Von Trier @ #3102 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 7:35 pm

    The interesting thing in the NT is only 65% of the electorate voted.

    If you take 40% of the 65% who voted as Labor votes and 30% as CLP that tells me the 2 party conservative duopoly represents about 45% of the total NT population.

    Its actually the most decayed political system in the nation!

    You’re not including the postals and pre-polls. ben Raue estimates that will bring the number up to ~ the usual 75%. Listen to the podcast I linked below.

  5. Well I checked the NTEC website – it said 93,000 votes received out of 140,000 electors.

    Cant imagine there’s still 14000 postals to be counted but I am happy to be corrected c@t!

  6. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 7:43 pm

    Still one of the funniest routines ever.
    _________
    Ever heard of Dave Chappelle?

  7. Bucephalus

    “ No, it’s not. The two bridges on one leg are very low. The choice was have no seating at all on the upper deck or ask passengers to come down for one leg. It’s an excellent compromise.”
    ————
    The fact that foreign built trains and ferries are unfit for purpose is “an excellent compromise” to meet the Liberal Party objective to move manufacturing jobs off shore.

  8. Firefox @ #3102 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 7:30 pm

    “There’s nothing more amusing on PB than someone stuck on stupid who repeats the same thing over and over again and thinks they have political insight.

    But, you’re a special case because you actually think that you are relevant to mainstream politics.”

    ***

    You actually think I want to be part of your mainstream establishment politics? lol I stopped voting for Labor long ago mate. That’s not really my go, in case you hadn’t noticed…

    But, like a moth to a flame you’re attracted to what normal people do and need to to keep coming back.

  9. “But, like a moth to a flame you’re attracted to what normal people do and need to to keep coming back.”

    ***

    Someone has to hold the establishment to account. Not that I’m the only one who does that mind you. What’s wrong? Don’t like listening to points of view that don’t align with the establishment’s narrative, do you.

  10. Seven News is warning Victorians that the Premier wants to impose lock down conditions for another 12 months.

    Deliberate scaremongering.

  11. Mavis
    Some terrible stories. For me the saddest was the guy He went through a horror in Afghanistan and thought he had found safety in NZ,as he should, yet had to suffer so much more tragedy.
    ……………………………………………………………………………
    Ata Taj Mohammad Kamran

    Ata Taj Mohammad Kamran has about 1000 bits of shrapnel throughout his body that will be a constant reminder of the day he was shot at Al Noor mosque.

    Kamran moved to New Zealand in 2007 as a refugee from Afghanistan after his house was bombed and most of his family killed.

    “My mother and I survived… my father died a short time after the bombing,” he told the court during this morning’s sentence.

    “New Zealand was a safe place for me.”
    He survived the 2011 quake but lost his house and had to live in his car for several months.

    But his friendship with fellow Afghani refugee Matiullah Safi helped him.

    The pair were best friends – more like brothers.

    “We met each Friday… he, that day, became a martyr.

    “At the time of the shooting Matiullah was shot there in front of me. I was listening to the Imam when the shooting started.
    “It is too hard for me… because of my best friend being shot dead there in front of me,” he said.

    “I miss my best friend, he was like a brother to me. We knew each other for 13 years… We met here in New Zealand… we did a lot of things together.

    “He was more to me than my best friend – he was better than having my own brother.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12358346

  12. Firefox @ #3112 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 7:50 pm

    “But, like a moth to a flame you’re attracted to what normal people do and need to to keep coming back.”

    ***

    Someone has to hold the establishment to account. Not that I’m the only one who does that mind you. What’s wrong? Don’t like listening to points of view that don’t align with the establishment’s narrative, do you.

    You think you’ve got all the answers and especially like to mansplain to the women posters of PB. You’ve even posited you’re owed an apology for people having alternative points of view to you.

    You’re a classic tosser, but only of mild amusement.

    But, no one takes you seriously in the real world.

  13. Apparently Trump is announcing a major breakthrough for therapeutic treatment for covid 19 in 12 hours (6pm Washington DC time). As the Americans say make of that what you will.

  14. I know a bit about the two bridges and why the NSW Transport Minister is in hot water. The bridges are the last that ferries pass under before reaching the end of the line at Parramatta wharf. The Parramatta River traversed by ferries is actually a tidal estuary (salt water) which is very shallow for the last few km to Parramatta.

    Incidentally, just beyond the Parramatta wharf is an old weir marking the salt/fresh water divide and the river upstream through Parramatta CBD was converted many years ago to pass along a concrete channel with flat grass either side in a sort of artificial canyon. This is the spot where Gladys wants (wanted?) to move the Power House museum and is subject to flooding in heavy rain.

    Modern day ferry services were only extended to Parramatta in 1993 (Wikipedia) when the last few km of the river were dredged to provide a channel and the service on this section is very slow (about 4 knots I think) to minimise turbulence and prevent the ferry running aground. There is no service on this section at times of very low tide (which, being predictable, is built into the timetable). Due to the slow journey, the service to and from Parramatta has been more for tourists than for commuters and the latest proposals by the private operator Transdev are for a general downgrading of through Parramatta services, that is, those impacted by the two bridges in question. https://yoursay.transdev.com.au/49980/widgets/267263/documents/120123

    My suspicious nature suggests that Transdev was fully aware of the two bridge problem on the approach to Parramatta when ordering the new ferries and this may provide them with an excuse to axe or severely curtail that service.

    The problem for Constance (and Gladys) of course is that the Parramatta City Council and business lobby would not be happy and would be very vocal in saying so. Not to mention the Opposition being given another transport related sledgehammer to attack the Government with.

  15. A very sad song for a country lad reflecting on what has happened to childhood memories (agriculture has been mechanized). I suppose this is what happens when your in your 60’s. you start reflecting. The country side now empty house after empty house, some new when I was in my youth. I don’t think I will go and look again.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9IUj1mDENg

    This is going to happen to coal mining towns. You can understand the hoping that things will not change. You can understand their dislike of Greens coming to promise to destroy ( on reflection, the lack of empathy is unbelievable), you can understand one clutching to the Liberal’s false promise. You can understand why rational voices are not listened to. In reality what is there to offer? The country party could not save country towns, the national l party will not be able to save coal mining towns.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-27/adani-carmichael-mine-greens-clermont-convoy-qld/11051390

  16. poroti @ #3123 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:11 pm

    Greensborough Growler

    And, you believe this why?

    Well apart from being true. Fuck all reason.
    .
    Donald Trump walked out on reporters after a question about his “major historic coronavirus breakthrough” in a press conference.
    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/donald-trump-to-reveal-major-virus-breakthrough/news-story/dba669603b2c6b854a322b342efda718

    I love to see Liberal supporters flusterd.

  17. The Food and Drug Administration on Sunday gave emergency approval for expanded use of antibody-rich blood plasma to help hospitalized coronavirus patients, allowing President Trump, who has been pressuring the agency to move faster to address the pandemic, to claim progress on the eve of the Republican convention.

    Mr. Trump cited the approval, which had been held up by concerns among top government scientists about the data behind it, as welcome news in fighting a disease that has led to 176,000 deaths in the United States and left the nation lagging far behind most others in the effectiveness of its response.

    At a news briefing, he described the treatment as “a powerful therapy” made possible “by marshaling the full power of the federal government.”

    The decision will broaden use of a treatment that has already been administered to more than 70,000 patients. But the F.D.A. cited benefits for only some patients. And, unlike a new drug, plasma cannot be manufactured in millions of doses; its availability is limited by blood donations. Mr. Trump urged everyone who has recovered from the virus to donate plasma, saying there is a nationwide campaign to collect it.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/world/covid-19-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  18. Kelly Anne Conway’s daughter tweeted this yesterday, it had its effect with Mommy ditching Dotard, and Daddy ditching Lincoln Project..

  19. GG
    What on earth has Trumpenstein’s latest flight of fancy got to do with Liberal party supporters let alone the ‘flustering’ of them ?

  20. For the benefit of C@t Dangar Island which is an island in the Hawkesbury River is in the federal electorate of Berowra and under Hornsby Council
    It is not in Robertson.

  21. Zerlo says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 8:18 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #3102 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 7:35 pm

    LVT using Trump numbers.

    96% from Republican Voter Support!
    __________________________-
    How impudent of you zoid! I’d give you a good horsewhipping if you were to hand!

  22. Lars Von Trier @ #3133 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:21 pm

    Zerlo says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 8:18 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #3102 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 7:35 pm

    LVT using Trump numbers.

    96% from Republican Voter Support!
    __________________________-
    How impudent of you zoid! I’d give you a good horsewhipping if you were to hand!

    Your form over time is that you’d prefer to be whipped than whip!

  23. Those who have been on the ferry from Parramatta to Circular Quay know that it goes slowly at about 2 knots for the first 2 stops, under the first 2 bridges. It is quite shallow, and they don’t want the wake to disturb the regrowing mangroves. After that, the ferry speeds up.

    So a graceful ‘duck and cover’ would suffice to avoid the decapitation…

  24. Andrew Stafford
    @staffo_sez
    ·
    9h
    Sydney is an episode of Utopia
    Low blow: Sydney’s new ferries won’t fit under bridges while passengers on top deck
    Commuters will have to move before boats can travel under Camellia Railway Bridge and Gasworks Bridge on Parramatta River
    theguardian.com

  25. I live at a station where you have to move to to the front of the train if you want to go on because they split it. I am sure the clear the top deck for the last two stops.

  26. Alternatively, they could employ a barge for the last 2 stops, and return. Or a trireme, good employment idea from GladysB.

  27. Sprocket ‘So a graceful ‘duck and cover’ would suffice to avoid the decapitation…’

    All you need it a unco’ed person to get the timing wrong and into court you go.

    I think it would work in WA, they seem the attitude that if you want to do some thing stupid and kill yourself, go right ahead. I am thinking of the Glouster Tree as an example. Very refreshing attitude of the Government.

  28. LVT
    SO you think trump is going to win because someone else said:

    “Love is more powerful than hate. Hope is more powerful than fear. And light is more powerful than dark.”

    Yuo really are away with the unicorns.

  29. Maori peeps have been in Parramatta since the late 1700s. There is still a bucket load there. They have the ideal transport solution for the upper reaches. BYOP (Bring your Own Paddle).

  30. PeeBee @ #3142 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:31 pm

    Sprocket ‘So a graceful ‘duck and cover’ would suffice to avoid the decapitation…’

    All you need it a unco’ed person to get the timing wrong and into court you go.

    I think it would work in WA, they seem the attitude that if you want to do some thing stupid and kill yourself, go right ahead. I am thinking of the Glouster Tree as an example. Very refreshing attitude of the Government.

    I do love that aspect of the Gloucester Tree, and the Bicentennial Tree. Hard to reconcile with all the restrictions in place at most tourist attractions these days.

    Having said that, I think the actual risk in climbing these trees is very low. But it feels dangerous and that’s part of the fun.

  31. frednk says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 8:35 pm
    LVT
    SO you think trump is going to win because someone else said:

    “Love is more powerful than hate. Hope is more powerful than fear. And light is more powerful than dark.”

    Yuo really are away with the unicorns.
    _______________________
    No frednk but Biden had an embarrassing episode some years ago where he was pinged for ripping off Neil Kinnock in a speech. Seems he hasn’t lost the habit?

  32. Spray @ #3147 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:37 pm

    PeeBee @ #3142 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:31 pm

    Sprocket ‘So a graceful ‘duck and cover’ would suffice to avoid the decapitation…’

    All you need it a unco’ed person to get the timing wrong and into court you go.

    I think it would work in WA, they seem the attitude that if you want to do some thing stupid and kill yourself, go right ahead. I am thinking of the Glouster Tree as an example. Very refreshing attitude of the Government.

    I do love that aspect of the Gloucester Tree, and the Bicentennial Tree. Hard to reconcile with all the restrictions in place at most tourist attractions these days.

    Having said that, I think the actual risk in climbing these trees is very low. But it feels dangerous and that’s part of the fun.

    Imagine taking some politicians out and suggesting they should pull their head in?

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