Preselections, defections and state elections

Jockeying begins in earnest for Liberal preselections in Warringah and for the Tasmanian Senate ticket, and a new milestone in the decomposition of Nick Xenophon’s party.

There probably won’t be any polls this week, with the fortnightly Essential Research and tri-weekly Newspoll having dropped last week. But there will of course be a Northern Territory election on Saturday, which is the subject of its own thread here.

Other news:

Sue Bailey of the Launceston Examiner reports that Eric Abetz is expected to retain the top position on the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate ticket at the next election, contrary to earlier reports that Jonathan Duniam was planning to topple him, after the two “kissed and made up”. However, the report further says that “another senior Liberal” is doing the numbers for the third candidate who will be seeking re-election, Wendy Askew, who filled the Senate vacancy created last year when her brother, David Bushby, took up a diplomatic post in the United States. Also: “It is believed Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants the pre-selection delayed until next year so as not to be a distraction during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald has a story on the willing Liberal preselection contest in Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall at last year’s election. Abbott loyalists are said to be advancing the claim of Sacha Grebe, a former Scott Morrison staffer and employee of lobbying firm DPG Advisory, whose principal is David Gazard, a Morrison ally and candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2010. Grebe backer and local party activist Walter Villatora is engaged in a seemingly forlorn bid to have the preselection held as soon as possible. Others said to be in the hunt are “state MP Natalie Ward, state executive member Alex Dore and Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James”.

• There has been a change in the party balance of the Senate with Rex Patrick’s resignation from the Centre Alliance to sit as an independent. The Advertiser ($) has also reported the party’s two remaining members, Stirling Griff in the Senate and Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, are the subject of approaches from Liberals to defect to the party, although the notion is meeting bitter resistance from conservatives.

• The results of Tasmania’s recent upper house elections have been finalised, and as expected have resulted in the election of Labor’s Bastian Seidel in the seat of Huon south of Hobart, and of Liberal candidate Jo Palmer in Rosevears. The former was achieved over independent incumbent Robert Armstrong by the comfortable margin of 7.3% at the final count (12,284 votes to 9,152), but the latter proved a close run thing, with Jo Palmer landing 260 votes clear of independent candidate Janie Finlay, 11,492 votes (50.6%) or 11,232 (49.4%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,622 comments on “Preselections, defections and state elections”

Comments Page 29 of 33
1 28 29 30 33
  1. Reading through, if anyone is paying to watch the DNC on some network, there is no need. It is streamed live on youtube. I linked to it earlier this morning.

    As for Clinton’s victory, I was at the Democrat Party party at the Boston Park Plaza on the night. It was sumthin’ else. As the polls closed across the country, and the big number screen kept leaping up toward the magic 270, state by state, it was bigly red white and blue, and very brass bands, three of.

    (edit: love=live)


  2. Danama Papers says:
    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    frednk @ #1369 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 1:28 pm

    “This is not the time to hold our votes, or vote for candidates that have no chance of winning”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Linx1XLUbYo

    ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT!

    Not bad is she. The pendulum swings left and right, I think she might have got out the sledge hammer and given it a good belt to the left.

    Talks to the thing that really matters “family”. It is the thing I have noticed traveling around the world, black brindle or blue we all care about our kids.

  3. Katy Gallagher
    @SenKatyG
    · 30m
    The Social Services Department just told the Senate COVID Committee that there will be no increase to the pension this September.

    Australian pensioners will have to wait 12 months until March 2021 for any increase and even that’s uncertain. #auspol #COVIDcommittee

    No deduction? :sighs with relief:

  4. Linda Burney MP
    @LindaBurneyMP
    ·
    48m
    #BREAKING: DSS officials have confirmed Morrison Government is still pressing ahead with plans to double liquid assets waiting time for JobSeeker to up to 26 weeks – six months. Now is not the time to be making it harder for people who have lost their jobs to get help.

  5. “This is not the time to hold our votes, or vote for candidates that have no chance of winning”

    That’s for progressives to determine with each other. Won’t appreciate moderates preaching to them.

  6. Zerlo @ #1408 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 5:19 pm

    Linda Burney MP
    @LindaBurneyMP
    ·
    48m
    #BREAKING: DSS officials have confirmed Morrison Government is still pressing ahead with plans to double liquid assets waiting time for JobSeeker to up to 26 weeks – six months. Now is not the time to be making it harder for people who have lost their jobs to get help.

    Question for Burney – What should the Jobseeker rate be ?

    Answer – I’m not telling you.

  7. TEN TV news.

    Google accused of misleading the public.

    That caint be right – that’s the Gummint’s job – although, come to think about it, the Gummint is apparently just the IPA outsourced – or something.

    Goodnight all. 📺💤

    Channel 10 has, the last couple of days given Mr. S. Morrison and the Gummint a really good serve about aged and disability non care.

  8. Greens Councillor Jonathan Sri led a Marxist organised march through the centre of Brisbane this morning causing major disruption to peak hour traffic. As usual the mainstream media remained silent on the nature of the extremists behind the rally.
    Generally speaking if the person arguing that Australia’s border protection laws should be weakened is doing so because he believes Australia is an illegitimate social construct which needs to be destroyed it might be considered newsworthy. If a Neo-Nazi was organising a march against Kosher slaughter techniques I’m betting the Brisbane media wouldn’t have described him as an animal rights activist.
    It would be nice to find out if the Councillor for the Gabba, rainbow scarves and Alpha Centuri even realizes who exactly the Marxist maniacs he’s thrown his lot in with really are.

  9. Redlands Mowerman @ #1417 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 5:40 pm

    Greens Councillor Jonathan Sri led a Marxist organised march through the centre of Brisbane this morning causing major disruption to peak hour traffic. As usual the mainstream media remained silent on the nature of the extremists behind the rally.
    Generally speaking if the person arguing that Australia’s border protection laws should be weakened is doing so because he believes Australia is an illegitimate social construct which needs to be destroyed it might be considered newsworthy. If a Neo-Nazi was organising a march against Kosher slaughter techniques I’m betting the Brisbane media wouldn’t have described him as an animal rights activist.
    It would be nice to find out if the Councillor for the Gabba, rainbow scarves and Alpha Centuri even realizes who exactly the Marxist maniacs he’s thrown his lot in with really are.

    How’s he go with dog poo and whether the rubbish is being properly collected.

  10. Rex Patrick:

    That’s for progressives to determine with each other. Won’t appreciate moderates preaching to them.

    Michelle Obama wasn’t talking to “progressives” with that.

  11. Redlands Mowerman @ #1417 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 5:40 pm

    Greens Councillor Jonathan Sri led a Marxist organised march through the centre of Brisbane this morning causing major disruption to peak hour traffic. As usual the mainstream media remained silent on the nature of the extremists behind the rally.
    Generally speaking if the person arguing that Australia’s border protection laws should be weakened is doing so because he believes Australia is an illegitimate social construct which needs to be destroyed it might be considered newsworthy. If a Neo-Nazi was organising a march against Kosher slaughter techniques I’m betting the Brisbane media wouldn’t have described him as an animal rights activist.
    It would be nice to find out if the Councillor for the Gabba, rainbow scarves and Alpha Centuri even realizes who exactly the Marxist maniacs he’s thrown his lot in with really are.

    Cue “Twilight Zone” theme tune …

  12. I just logged on to the Courier-Mail site, and you could have bowled me over with a feather when one of the first things I saw on the front page was a column excoriating Jonathan Sri over this morning’s protest.


  13. caf says:
    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 5:49 pm
    Rex Patrick:
    That’s for progressives to determine with each other. Won’t appreciate moderates preaching to them.
    Michelle Obama wasn’t talking to “progressives” with that.

    Unless of cause your definition is those who throw away their vote instead of voting for change. IN my world it is hard to see how that is progressive but so be it. In the US why would you even bother to go to the polling booth.

  14. William Bowe @ #1425 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 6:03 pm

    I just logged on to the Courier-Mail site, and you could have bowled me over with a feather when one of the first things I saw on the front page was a column excoriating Jonathan Sri over this morning’s protest.

    A slightly swinging ball outside off was always your downfall.

  15. Bill Clinton is out of touch with what Democratic voters want today. They overwhelmingly want Medicare-For-All, free education and training, big investments in public infrastructure, and non-carceral criminal justice policies. He’s a relic. The main association that most people will make with him now is his link to a serial sex offender. He’s an odd choice for an event that is supposed to be about presenting the Democratic Party in a favourable light.

  16. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 6:19 pm

    He’s a relic. The main association that most people will make with him now is his link to a serial sex offender.
    _____________
    Either that or the 1996 Crime Act which was a disaster for many people caught up in it’s unfair provisions.

  17. Nicholas @ #1430 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    Bill Clinton is out of touch with what Democratic voters want today. They overwhelmingly want Medicare-For-All, free education and training, big investments in public infrastructure, and non-carceral criminal justice policies. He’s a relic. The main association that most people will make with him now is his link to a serial sex offender. He’s an odd choice for an event that is supposed to be about presenting the Democratic Party in a favourable light.

    Yeah, but you also told us they wan’t Bernnie Sanders.

    How’d that work out?

  18. Pre-emptive clarification: Nath’s in moderation. His comments will get cleared if they seem fair enough and I happen to be on board at the time. Though right now as it happens, I’m off down the pub pretty shortly.

  19. Bill Clinton is out of touch with what Democratic voters want today.

    Is he? He implemented tax increases to big business and the wealthy and a partial fossil fuel tax while overseeing the biggest economic upturn in modern history.

  20. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 5:21 pm
    frednk @ #1407 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 5:18 pm

    Rex
    So for you Clinton is the US shorten.
    Have you ever seen Clinton speak? He is a very smart man.
    He’s a lowlife.

    On this basis, if Clinton is a lowlife, then Trump would be a life form way down a deep pit of sewage.

  21. Bill Clinton’s financial deregulation laid the foundations of the Global Financial Crisis that wrecked the lives of hundreds of millions of people worldwide; he enacted welfare “reforms” that increased the amount of poverty in the United States and treated low income people in an extremely punitive way; he enacted criminal justice reforms that massively expanded the carceral state and did nothing to actually address crime; he did little about climate change; he naively thought that market mechanisms would improve public services. Most Democratic voters today want something very different from the neoliberal corporatist agenda promoted by Bill Clinton.

    It is a disgrace that AOC was only given a 60 second pre-recorded slot at the convention, while John Kasich, a Republican, got the chance to deliver a full length speech in real time. AOC is much more reflective of where Democratic voters are today than Bill Clinton or John Kasich.

  22. Nicholas
    “AOC is much more reflective of where Democratic voters are today than Bill Clinton or John Kasich.”

    Yeah but Kasich is more reflective of where moderate and Independent voters are today. You know, the kind of voters a Dem presidential candidate needs to win.

  23. Nicholas
    AOC is representative of a safe district and is yet to prove her electability in key swing states while Bill Clinton did win two elections and would have beaten Bush in 2000.

  24. Nicholas @ #1443 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 6:44 pm

    Bill Clinton’s financial deregulation laid the foundations of the Global Financial Crisis that wrecked the lives of hundreds of millions of people worldwide; he enacted welfare “reforms” that increased the amount of poverty in the United States and treated low income people in an extremely punitive way; he enacted criminal justice reforms that massively expanded the carceral state and did nothing to actually address crime; he did little about climate change; he naively thought that market mechanisms would improve public services. Most Democratic voters today want something very different from the neoliberal corporatist agenda promoted by Bill Clinton.

    It is a disgrace that AOC was only given a 60 second pre-recorded slot at the convention, while John Kasich, a Republican, got the chance to deliver a full length speech in real time. AOC is much more reflective of where Democratic voters are today than Bill Clinton or John Kasich.

    Yeah, well maybe the Democrats have worked out where the votes are to win the Election.

  25. Nicholas’ acumen regarding US politics is legendary. He predicted a Sanders victory in both the Dem primary and the presidential election. So when he says AOC is what the Dems need to win over swing voters, be sure to take heed.

  26. “Yeah but Kasich is more reflective of where moderate and Independent voters are today. You know, the kind of voters a Dem presidential candidate needs to win.”

    Does this mean most moderate independent Americans are anti-abortion/gay marriage/unions/social security?

  27. Bonza
    “Does this mean most moderate independent Americans are anti-abortion/gay marriage/unions/social security?”

    Quite a lot of them are, yes. Welcome to America.

  28. Bonza @ #1448 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 6:53 pm

    “Yeah but Kasich is more reflective of where moderate and Independent voters are today. You know, the kind of voters a Dem presidential candidate needs to win.”

    Does this mean most moderate independent Americans are anti-abortion/gay marriage/unions/social security?

    Well, the Dems think he can influence the vote in their favour.

    All Kasich does is give rusted on Republicans the green light to vote for Biden.

Comments Page 29 of 33
1 28 29 30 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *