Preselections, defections and state elections

Jockeying begins in earnest for Liberal preselections in Warringah and for the Tasmanian Senate ticket, and a new milestone in the decomposition of Nick Xenophon’s party.

There probably won’t be any polls this week, with the fortnightly Essential Research and tri-weekly Newspoll having dropped last week. But there will of course be a Northern Territory election on Saturday, which is the subject of its own thread here.

Other news:

• Sue Bailey of the Launceston Examiner reports that Eric Abetz is expected to retain the top position on the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate ticket at the next election, contrary to earlier reports that Jonathan Duniam was planning to topple him, after the two “kissed and made up”. However, the report further says that “another senior Liberal” is doing the numbers for the third candidate who will be seeking re-election, Wendy Askew, who filled the Senate vacancy created last year when her brother, David Bushby, took up a diplomatic post in the United States. Also: “It is believed Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants the pre-selection delayed until next year so as not to be a distraction during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

• Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald has a story on the willing Liberal preselection contest in Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall at last year’s election. Abbott loyalists are said to be advancing the claim of Sacha Grebe, a former Scott Morrison staffer and employee of lobbying firm DPG Advisory, whose principal is David Gazard, a Morrison ally and candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2010. Grebe backer and local party activist Walter Villatora is engaged in a seemingly forlorn bid to have the preselection held as soon as possible. Others said to be in the hunt are “state MP Natalie Ward, state executive member Alex Dore and Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James”.

• There has been a change in the party balance of the Senate with Rex Patrick’s resignation from the Centre Alliance to sit as an independent. The Advertiser ($) has also reported the party’s two remaining members, Stirling Griff in the Senate and Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, are the subject of approaches from Liberals to defect to the party, although the notion is meeting bitter resistance from conservatives.

• The results of Tasmania’s recent upper house elections have been finalised, and as expected have resulted in the election of Labor’s Bastian Seidel in the seat of Huon south of Hobart, and of Liberal candidate Jo Palmer in Rosevears. The former was achieved over independent incumbent Robert Armstrong by the comfortable margin of 7.3% at the final count (12,284 votes to 9,152), but the latter proved a close run thing, with Jo Palmer landing 260 votes clear of independent candidate Janie Finlay, 11,492 votes (50.6%) or 11,232 (49.4%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,622 comments on “Preselections, defections and state elections”

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  1. Bonza
    Political party labels don’t apply to supporting issues like gay marriage because i know someone that was all upset Liberals were going to sink gay marriage and i warned him not to get ahead of the result and sure enough they went strongly yes.

  3. And we wont go into why the US didnt get a more progressive president in 2000.

    Nicholas, firstly, Clinton significantly reduced poverty in the US during his term. Secondly, I posted earlier about a lecture given by Reich where he answered questions for ages afterwards. The focus was on the Clinton administration and why they did what they did.

    Mistakes were made. Decisions were made that had delayed adverse consequences. Compromises, many compromises were considered necessary purely to right the myth that the left were bad economic managers. They believed it essential, after 12 years of Republican rule (20 of the previous 24 years?), that the Democrat party improve its standing in this area. I am not going to defend all their policies. But if you tie progressive policy with legislative achievement… then Clinton is probably the most successful in living memory and his economic achievements during his term have increased the Democrats electability in a generally very conservative and very capitalist nation.

  4. GG
    Well, the Dems think he can influence the vote in their favour.

    All Kasich does is give rusted on Republicans the green light to vote for Biden.

    Which means he is worth his weight in gold (if not more).

  6. Wholly bejebus batman! When you get the opportunity to have an elder statesman of the GOP offer to come to the DNC conference and back the Democrat candidate you give the man as much time as you can.

    But yes. More AOC would be good.

  9. poroti:

    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 3:44 pm

    Mavis

    [‘I take it Sean and Tucker think the US is in danger of having extreme left-communist-socialist-stalinist policies inflicted upon the nation should those Democrats win .’]

    You’re on the money.

    _________________________________________________________

    I’m pleased that WB has allowed nath back albeit with supervision.

    __________________________________________________________

    Cat:

    I’d like to see you back posting too.

  10. Dan Andrews will be breathing a sigh of relief tonight.

    Not only has there been an infection of a security guard in NSW but he also worked at… drumroll… Flemington Markets, which has had its own cases.

  11. Greensborough Growler @ #1450 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 4:56 pm

    All Kasich does is give rusted on Republicans the green light to vote for Biden.

    In theory, yes. The fact that the Republican Party has morphed from the party of Lincoln to the party of Reagan to the party of Trump may well undo that theory.

    Lincoln Republicans would already be doing just that or staying at home.

    Reagan Republicans (the never Trumpers, Lincoln Project, et al) may be swayed. Or not.

    Trump Republicans will continue to vote for “their” guy, and may well show up in record numbers.

    There’s no point in looking at polls showing a decisive Biden victory as they may well be as accurate as they were in 2016.

    Since Trump has turned American politics on its head, I’d be very cautious about making any predictions about any US election from here on.

  12. BB

    Dan Andrews will be breathing a sigh of relief tonight.

    I’m looking forward to Gladys fronting hostile pressers. Well, I can dream…

  16. Well steve davis – most people disappear without a trace on PB but nath was being talked about non stop on PB for days and weeks since the unfortunate events of that Saturday.

    Its a measure of nath’s high impact contribution.

  17. Now that Nath is being allowed back I’m leaving.
    Pity…
    William you need to get control of your blog. You are skating on very thin legal ice my friend.

  18. C@t you should come back too! Turn away from your craven embrace of the elder bully boy BB and come back towards the light!

    In William’s PB house there are many rooms!

  27. Danama Papers

    Thanks for the Sanders link. Really good speech.
    It was disappointing that he couldn’t go the extra mile for Hillary. We ended up with Trump.

  28. Lizzie says:
    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 7:29 pm
    LVT

    Throwing insults at C@t is very unlikely to entice her back. Why should she bother?
    ______________________
    How exactly was my comment an insult to c@t? She made a poor judgement call allying herself with BB. I was encouraging her to return and ditch the bully boy connection.

  33. The frasmotic pericombobulations last night was bad enough.
    A sock puppet convention is too much; catch you on the flip side.

  35. Lars

    Your comment was an insult, was intended as an insult and your denial it was an insult only shows it was.

    Same for most of your comments.

  39. well lizzie and mike hilliard read the posts at the end of last night.

    I think the point was c@t chose to defend the indefensible in BB.

    She made a bad call and it was craven. But we can all forgive and forget.

    Or are you actually going to argue BB’s derogatory comments are ok?

  40. Danama Papers:

    [‘There’s no point in looking at polls showing a decisive Biden victory as they may well be as accurate as they were in 2016.’]

    While a Biden victory’s not set in cement, the first day of the DNC went exceptionally well. The slight problem, however, may come in the four presidential debates, both protagonists exhibiting cognitive decline. On Biden’s side is his political experience, but it only takes one major mistake to stuff it up for either candidate – here I’m thinking of the Reagan’s -v- Mondale’s exchange when the latter referred to Old Ronnie’s age:

    [“Reagan responded: “Not at all, Mr. Trehwitt, and I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth, and inexperience. If I still have time, I might add, Mr. Trehwitt, I might add that it was Seneca, or it was Cicero, I don’t know which, that said, ‘If it was not for the elders correcting the mistakes of the young, there would be no state.”]

    Reagan was a B-grade actor, but with dear Nancy’s encouragement (a fellow B-grade actor), she instinctively knew of the importance of a punch-line. The rest is history.

  41. To clarify, Nath isn’t back because he was never gone in the first place. He’s been in moderation all along. Early indications are that his clearance rate will be pretty low.

  45. mikehilliard says:
    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 7:12 pm
    BB

    Dan Andrews will be breathing a sigh of relief tonight.
    I’m looking forward to Gladys fronting hostile pressers. Well, I can dream…

    I’m looking forward to The Australian publishing rants about Gladys’ failures to contain the virus similar to those they have done on Andrews.

    This one by John Ferguson could serve as a template:
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/hotel-quarantine-fallout-will-shape-victorian-politics-for-years/news-story/c93025087a9ecd5c7622e369933dde7f

    A catastrophic failure of the Andrews government’s hotel quarantine program is behind the nation’s second coronavirus wave.
    …………………………
    Monday’s evidence, which showed that security guards were given the wrong information in dealing with the infected, compounds the errors committed by the government in setting up the quarantine system.
    The system lacked leadership and accountability.
    Yes, it was formed at breakneck speed but on no measure is this an excuse for incompetence on such a grand scale.
    Alpren is clear: “….I am satisfied to conclude that, in my opinion, it is highly likely that a high proportion, approximately 99 per cent, of current cases of COVID-19 in Victoria have arisen from Rydges or Stamford.’’
    “It is likely that the large majority, approximately 90 per cent or more of current COVID-19 infections in Victoria, can be traced to the Rydges Hotel.”
    In other words, Australia’s second biggest state is on its knees because of hotel quarantine.

    And the rant continues for 8 more single-sentence paragraphs.
    It is followed by over 400 comments, mostly calling for Dan’s downfall.

    But I know she will be gently supported by kindly journalists full of understanding.
    Pass me the bucket.

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