Preselections, defections and state elections

Jockeying begins in earnest for Liberal preselections in Warringah and for the Tasmanian Senate ticket, and a new milestone in the decomposition of Nick Xenophon’s party.

There probably won’t be any polls this week, with the fortnightly Essential Research and tri-weekly Newspoll having dropped last week. But there will of course be a Northern Territory election on Saturday, which is the subject of its own thread here.

Other news:

Sue Bailey of the Launceston Examiner reports that Eric Abetz is expected to retain the top position on the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate ticket at the next election, contrary to earlier reports that Jonathan Duniam was planning to topple him, after the two “kissed and made up”. However, the report further says that “another senior Liberal” is doing the numbers for the third candidate who will be seeking re-election, Wendy Askew, who filled the Senate vacancy created last year when her brother, David Bushby, took up a diplomatic post in the United States. Also: “It is believed Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants the pre-selection delayed until next year so as not to be a distraction during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald has a story on the willing Liberal preselection contest in Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall at last year’s election. Abbott loyalists are said to be advancing the claim of Sacha Grebe, a former Scott Morrison staffer and employee of lobbying firm DPG Advisory, whose principal is David Gazard, a Morrison ally and candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2010. Grebe backer and local party activist Walter Villatora is engaged in a seemingly forlorn bid to have the preselection held as soon as possible. Others said to be in the hunt are “state MP Natalie Ward, state executive member Alex Dore and Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James”.

• There has been a change in the party balance of the Senate with Rex Patrick’s resignation from the Centre Alliance to sit as an independent. The Advertiser ($) has also reported the party’s two remaining members, Stirling Griff in the Senate and Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, are the subject of approaches from Liberals to defect to the party, although the notion is meeting bitter resistance from conservatives.

• The results of Tasmania’s recent upper house elections have been finalised, and as expected have resulted in the election of Labor’s Bastian Seidel in the seat of Huon south of Hobart, and of Liberal candidate Jo Palmer in Rosevears. The former was achieved over independent incumbent Robert Armstrong by the comfortable margin of 7.3% at the final count (12,284 votes to 9,152), but the latter proved a close run thing, with Jo Palmer landing 260 votes clear of independent candidate Janie Finlay, 11,492 votes (50.6%) or 11,232 (49.4%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,622 comments on “Preselections, defections and state elections”

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  1. BB
    What a stupid post. If Daniel Andrews is breathing a sigh of relief as a result of a security transmission in NSW then he is so fucked in the head that he does not deserve to be a state leader. Hundreds have died, thousands have lost thier jobs, but thats all ok, NSW have a security case too.

  2. Lars Von Trier:

    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 7:39 pm

    [‘I think the point was c@t chose to defend the indefensible in BB.’]

    Please stop piling it on, cobber.

  3. Davidwh:

    Lately there are too many commenters who want to talk about other commenters which just mires the discussion (as it were) in tedious inanity. Or worse in outright childishness.

  4. It’s pretty sobering to realize the current Covid outbreak, 90% of cases, in Victoria originated from one family living in secured isolation.

  5. sprocket_ :

    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 7:57 pm

    [‘William checking nath’ s posts in moderation…’]

    Really, pal. You need to lift your game!

  6. There will be no increase on the pension this September, forcing those reliant on the payment to wait until March 2021 for a potential boost, the Department of Social Services revealed on Tuesday.

    Speaking to a parliamentary committee, DSS deputy secretary Nathan Williamson said inflation had gone backwards, meaning if the payment was indexed as it usually is on September 20, there would be a drop in the amount.

    “Based on the calculation for indexation, if it’s negative, we don’t reduce the pension, but we also don’t increase it,” he said.

    Mr Williamson was not able to give any indication as to when there might be a payment boost, noting the uncertain economic climate.

    A 95 per cent drop in the cost of childcare during the June quarter, a significant fall in the price of petrol and a drop in the price of preschool and primary education were to blame for the drop in the consumer price index (CPI) according to Australian Bureau of Statistics chief economist Bruce Hockman.

    “Excluding these three components, the CPI would have risen 0.1 per cent in the June quarter,” he said.

    Mr Hockman said the recent drop, which took inflation to -0.3 per cent was “the largest quarterly fall in the 72-year history of the CPI”

  7. And Mr William Bowe I won’t be back any time soon due to your bullying and belligerent behavior either.

    You sir, are a bully but it it is your blog. You say and do what you what you want.

    You have history.

    BK, Lizzie and others leave this toxic cesspool and move to other more pleasant outlets.

  8. Grant:

    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 8:11 pm

    [‘And Mr William Bowe I won’t be back any time soon due to your bullying and belligerent behavior either.’]

    Oh, please get over yourself; you’ll be back. To moderate a blog such as this is fraught. You’ll be lurking though -of that I have no doubt.

  9. Grant

    Without wishing to pretend I have any real influence, I believe that a few of us provide a stable base over over which all the sound and fury ebbs and flows.

  10. Grant @ #1512 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 8:11 pm

    And Mr William Bowe I won’t be back any time soon due to your bullying and belligerent behavior either.

    You sir, are a bully but it it is your blog. You say and do what you what you want.

    Of all the people around here you might legitimately call out for bullying others, you instead decide to start with WB. Odd choice. Odd and incorrect.

  11. Martini indeed and yet almost daily we still hear of people breaking quarantine restrictions. The latest two young people in Perth.

  12. Have discovered a really impressive HD YouTube channel: Declassified Spy Stories.

    Told from an American Intelligence point of view, admittedly, but well researched, not overtly jingoistic, with high production values and high relevance interviewees.

    Leaves ample room for the viewer to make up their own mind.

    Recommended.

    Currently watching the one on the hunt for Zarqawi, founder of ISIS. Very well presented.

  13. Fyi, I haven’t been placed in moderation. I’m just taking a break as I was told this morning that my home for the last 25 years has been sold and I need to find a new one, pack up and move out by November 9. It will be a fraught time for me so probably best if I don’t bring my overt stresses and strains here. My fuse is too short as it is! Especially if Mr Bowe allows nath out of the dog house to run around nipping at people’s heals.

  14. Gee that’s terrible c@t, never a decision you want forced upon you.

    I do understand it is a renter’s market, with a lot of vacancies at present. So don’t be shy in making low ball offers.

  15. sprocket_ @ #1523 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 9:40 pm

    Gee that’s terrible c@t, never a decision you want forced upon you.

    I do understand it is a renter’s market, with a lot of vacancies at present. So don’t be shy in making low ball offers.

    sprocket_,
    Not where I live/want to keep living! 😆

    I’ve put in an offer on a really nice cottage down the road and around the corner already. Not too expensive, so fingers crossed. I find out in a couple of days and if I don’t get it then it’s back to schlepping around. 🙂

  16. Along with various character tics, Grant turns out to have IP address commonalities with a chap called Steven who pops in from time to time to wash his head at me, Marvin-the-Paranoid-Android style.

  17. lizzie @ #1242 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 9:54 am

    Was this ever proven? I was never sure.

    We all know why the Ruby Princess was allowed to disembark – because a federal LNP’s wife was among the passengers and her life had priority over everyone else.

    Quite a few references to it today, consistent with the references as it occurred, but if it is true it is one of those corruptions the rupert / stokes / costello media is very happy to hide to protect the families of the guilty as sin.

  18. Rex Douglas @ #1365 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 1:22 pm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01xMO_6dajQ

    There really is NO LEGITIMATE REASON for progressives in the US to sit this election out.

    I tend to agree, and in the event there is an election and most people who want to are allowed to vote, and they count the vote and the counted votes aren’t overturned by the White Supremacist Court, and assuming Trump hasn’t got the joint chiefs so he could ignore that too, then if Biden becomes President I still think the four years of Biden are going to be a shit show followed by a republican nominee knowing exactly what they can get away with, and a lot smarter than Trump.

  19. Samantha Maiden posted this about the Alex Hawke/Ruby Princess rumour in April. She was working for The New Daily at the time.

  20. William Bowe @ #1533 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 7:57 pm

    Samantha Maiden posted this about the Alex Hawke/Ruby Princess rumour in April. She was working for The New Daily at the time.

    I have checked out the Alex Hawke rumour – claim his in laws were on board and it’s complete baloney. The fact it was allowed to dock is bizarre but Hawke rumour is a twitter fantasy

    — Samantha Maiden (@samanthamaiden) April 3, 2020

    Was she one of the many who checked and was sure that Morrison was not on holidays in Hawaii?

  21. C@t, so sorry about your impending move. All I can say is, I hope you can find a place that is even better than where you are now. Good luck.

  22. This account suggests Samantha Maiden was relatively ahead of the press gallery curve in relation to the Hawaii matter. I don’t think anyone who followed her Twitter account during her New Daily tenure would describe her as right-wing. I also don’t think it’s incumbent on Alex Hawke to prove a negative. There is no evidence to suggest that his brother-in-law was on the Ruby Princess.

  23. Although I must say I’m not sure I believe the Alex Hawke thing, usually when this Govt is doing so much to hide and distract the corruption is a lot bigger than getting someone’s family off a boat in a pandemic.

  24. Samantha Louise Maiden is an Australian political journalist. Until June 2018, she was a political reporter for Sky News Australia and was previously the political editor for a number of Sunday News Corp Australia newspapers including The Sunday Telegraph, Sunday Herald Sun and Sunday Mail.

    Judge for yourself. Is she not a right winger?

  25. William Bowe @ #1542 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 8:06 pm

    This account suggests Samantha Maiden was relatively ahead of the press gallery curve in relation to the Hawaii matter. I don’t think anyone who followed her Twitter account during her New Daily tenure would describe her as right-wing. I also don’t think it’s incumbent on Alex Hawke to prove a negative. There is no evidence to suggest that his brother-in-law was on the Ruby Princess.

    Almost of all twitter was ahead of the the main stream media on the Hawaii thing, and all it had to do was know the PMO lied more often than it tells the truth, still I agree there is no hard evidence on the Hawke thing, but the Govt is covering up something, we just don’t know exactly what.

  26. Mexicanbeemer @ #1538 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 8:01 pm

    If a politicians family member was really on the Ruby Princess then surely that persons identify would be known by now.

    I’m not sure, in the absence of a passenger manifest, and a very obvious and deliberate decision by the Govt NOT to cooperate with the inquiry or let officials even testify, that that logic is far ahead of the ‘if he didn’t have family on board we’d know by now’.

    I kinda understand that ‘no need to prove a negative point’ but I don’t think it applies to a Government with as a strong and deep a history of corruption as this one.

  27. Your naivety about Sam Maiden astonishes me William.

    She wrote the “Alex Hawke” piece in March, and then returned as Political Editor, news.com.au the very next month: April 2020.

    Join the dots.

    If you’re going take anyone’s word for it at face value, Sam Maiden, keen for a job back in familiar territory, ain’t that person.

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