Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,962 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

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  2. There is plenty of examples of why the media plays important role to spread the message, but instead of helping, they are too fucking busy slagging Labor.

  4. Sally McManus
    @sallymcmanus
    ·
    4m
    The top coronavirus super-spreaders are casual work and sub-contracting.

    But how to prevent it?

  7. Player One says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 11:03 am

    Maybe in the last 20 years the media control who’s party is in power ? Just like the US elections? Russians, Murdoch Media, etc?

  10. Oh oh, NSW up to 17 cases today. It’s starting to creep up like Vic’s was just before their second wave. Let’s hope it doesn’t go the same way.

  11. Zerlo @ #107 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 11:05 am

    Player One says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 11:03 am

    Maybe in the last 20 years the media control who’s party is in power ? Just like the US elections? Russians, Murdoch Media, etc?

    That’s a bit simplistic, but it is not entirely untrue. But my point was that it is quite idiotic for Labor to simply continue doing the same thing and just hope the media will suddenly change.

    Remember, they may have as little as 12 months till the next election, and they don’t even have any policies yet.

  12. Federal Labor’s strength at the moment is they are keeping out of the way. They are letting Morrison sink himself. Opposition have never won elections, governments lose them.

  13. Player One says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 11:11 am

    Policies don’t win power, too many policies, and Media just play the same ball last time.

  14. P1 Don’t get too excited just yet – there seems to be a weekly cycle in these numbers. We may have to wait another week to make sure which way the trend is going

    The numbers do seem to jump around a lot. On weekends they seem to be lower. Cases identified might be reported on the following day or later.

    Re Victorian numbers, I put these into a spreadsheet. The five day moving average has crept up from about 300 a day on the 19th to 500 a day on the 31st.

  16. ”Oh oh, NSW up to 17 cases today. It’s starting to creep up like Vic’s was just before their second wave. Let’s hope it doesn’t go the same way.“

    Will, I’d rather it were below 10 or better still zero, but 17 means holding the line (or, glass half empty, dancing on the precipice without falling).

  17. PeeBee, sadly death by train is a very common happening, it is a rare day when some line or other is not affected by “self harmers” and on many days it happens multiple times. And it also takes a toll on the rail workers who have to clean up the mess left when they are successful.

  18. Socrates @ #92 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 10:38 am

    Steve
    “I remember talking to AGL engineers and they say the more the renewables expand the more robust the system becomes, basically because the deficit of wind at times or sunlight in particular areas are compensated for by sun/wind in other areas.”

    I attended a lecture at Adelaide Uni where an expert in renewable power engineering explained exactly that ten year ago! 🙁 It has been understood by those who know for some time. That was also around when new wind turbine power became cheaper than new coal power. The big battery accelerated the cost effectiveness of new renewable power even further. New wind power plus big battery is now cheaper than existing (old) coal power. There is no technical or economic excuse for building new coal or gas power generation. Grid changes are required, but that was always the case, and they are comparatively cheap.

    Everything since Gillard left office has been a giant stall by the coal and gas industries, enabled by some giant lies.

    Just in case some lurkers are joining us at the weekend after work and missed this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/30/climate-denier-shill-global-debate

  19. Oh oh, NSW up to 17 cases today. It’s starting to creep up like Vic’s was just before their second wave. Let’s hope it doesn’t go the same way.

    I cant figure out if that is successful suppression or a dangerous indicator it is about to go bang. Or both.

    My opinion has always been that elimination is worth the trouble – socially and economically. Just bang the nails in and counter sink them…. damn it.

  23. Just an observation from being out and about this week on the Central Coast in NSW. Virtually no one is wearing a mask. Most people still seem to be behaving like the old days pre-COVID-19, with a kind of minimalist social distancing. Not cheek-by-jowl but not really far enough away from each other to be effective against COVID-19. I even had a sub-contractor water meter reader come to my house the other day to ask me where the water meter was. He didn’t have a mask (this is a guy who has been going from house to house in the area) and he stood barely a foot away from my face to speak to me, for an extended period. So, I think NSW, if it is succeeding at all, is succeeding in keeping numbers relatively low because of lots of testing and great contact tracing.

    But, we’ll see.

  24. C@t

    Yes NSW has done lots of testing which is really good.
    Only thing that doesnt correlate, and has me scratching my head. There are current 8 people in ICU in NSW with covid.

  26. Wow! Send the little Hunt a bunch of flowers.

    Revised warning for people who visited the Mounties club too – and authorities say they found two new cases through the COVID Safe phone app

  27. This is what happened last time Labor had many policies:

    I am becoming less convinced that Murdoch press headlines are the problem. It is the ripple effect into all other media. The Murdochtrination of Fairfax/Nine, 10, 7, WIN and the ABC.

  28. c@t, i observed the same sort of behavior in Melbourne after the initial wave of covid died down then positive numbers started ticking over until it seemed it reached a kind of critical mass and the virus exploded. Fingers crossed for the rest of the country.

  30. See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    Aged care, security guards at quarantine hotels, some of the abbatoirs: all the same problem. Casualised workforce with no basic protections (sick leave). COVID shows us the toxicity & stupidity of this private profit/public liability model. Needs basic political change: vote!
    10:45 AM · Aug 1, 2020·Twitter Web App

  33. Simon Katich @ #129 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 11:32 am

    It feels like the Central Coast hinterland winter here in the Adelaide Hills. Dry, sunny and cold nights/mild days.

    Tell me about it! 5 overnight, felt like about 2! Clear as a bell today, with that frigid winter way that sunshine has of making everything you look at seem cold as just by looking at it, and, after the East Coast Low and lots of rain last week, especially cold as you walk around the soggy cold ground. Love it. 😀

  34. martini Henry

    Here in Melbourne whilst still in midst of restrictions, the media, fiberals etc. went into full campaign mode to re open.
    It was going to be Mothers day after all.

    Anyhoo, the message to the public was yep business as usual. People flocked to the shops and went visiting their mum etc.
    And Who can forget those on this blog decrying the cruelty of Dan Andrews about it all.

  35. Victoria @ #130 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 11:34 am

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    Aged care, security guards at quarantine hotels, some of the abbatoirs: all the same problem. Casualised workforce with no basic protections (sick leave). COVID shows us the toxicity & stupidity of this private profit/public liability model. Needs basic political change: vote!
    10:45 AM · Aug 1, 2020·Twitter Web App

    Sonds like a policy area Labor could get some traction on, doesn’t it?

    I won’t be holding my breath.

  39. lizzie @ #126 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 11:29 am

    Wow! Send the little Hunt a bunch of flowers.

    Revised warning for people who visited the Mounties club too – and authorities say they found two new cases through the COVID Safe phone app

    If you just generated 1000 random mobile phone numbers and then tested the people who own them you’d probably find more cases 🙁

  40. C@t, I remember Central Coast hinterland winter mornings well. Waiting 2 hours for the school bus, in shorts, with frost up to my knees after a breakfast of warm bitumen.

    But at least the sun was out and the wattle was flowering.

  44. I agree with Trump. I dont like mail in voting. Obama has it right – make election day a national holiday and automatic voter registration (with lots of properly funded booths).

  46. Simon Katich @ #140 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 11:41 am

    C@t, I remember Central Coast hinterland winter mornings well. Waiting 2 hours for the school bus, in shorts, with frost up to my knees after a breakfast of warm bitumen.

    But at least the sun was out and the wattle was flowering.

    At least they let the kids wear school track suits in winter now. Though one of my kids is a human heater and he wears a short-sleeved t-shirt all year round. I just don’t understand those people. 😆

    Oh yeah, and the flowers have started popping up on my Azalea, and yes, the Wattle. Time to go and get some hayfever tablets. The ones I really love are the Flannel Flowers. Ghostly gorgeousness. 🙂

  47. C@t

    Well Tim Smith wannabe leader of the fibs has deleted all his old tweets referring to opening up etc. Cos now he demands that Andrews goes harder on locking up people

    You cant make this shit up

  48. Victoria @ #147 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 11:48 am

    C@t

    Well Tim Smith wannabe leader of the fibs has deleted all his old tweets referring to opening up etc. Cos now he demands that Andrews goes harder on locking up people

    You cant make this shit up

    Obviously thinks that people have the memory of a goldfish. How very condescending Liberal of him. Though I imagine Dan Andrews’ people have kept every last one of his Tweets. 😀

  50. C@t

    Tim Smith was trending on Twitter today with respect to this. And yes people have saved his old tweets.

    Tim doesnt realise the internet Is forever.

    Lol!

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