Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

  1. I keep remembering that – wasn’t it in 2019? – Dutton’s department decided that it wasn’t worth planning for a likely pandemic, because it would cost too much.

  2. What I find disappointing about those in the blame game is that they try so hard to sheet it down to one person or one group.
    I have no truck with Trump, Morrison, Bojo, Andrews or any other political leader having to take the full responsibility/hate stuff…………..Sure they all make mistakes – some very stupid – some the result of calculated actions – but no leader is omnipresent. What worries me is the rank stupidity and selfishness is that coming from some of my fellow citizens…………………..It is just so easy to blame the leader as once one can demonise then one can destroy………………………….Mind you, a few here with axes and poison to spread, but hey this lot is of no account………………………

  3. Spot News
    @SPOTNEWSonIG
    Level 6:
    Replying to
    @SPOTNEWSonIG
    Is it confirmed that the ATF agent discharged his weapon?

    Yes, the ATF agent discharged his weapon. We have shell casings from 23-27 S Austin.
    #Chicago #ChicagoScanner

  4. Victoria records 397 new cases, three deaths
    Premier reveals infections among Victoria’s health workers have soared to more than 1000 as state records overall drop in daily cases.

  5. When Sooty Morrison gives a press conference the MSM hacks simply lap up every comment without question or throw out Dorothy Dixers to further promote whatever idea he is pushing. For Dan Andrews, not so much. So many questions imply that he is either lying, or withholding information and thereby being evasive. They are a disgrace.

  6. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/nervous-wait-for-almost-2000-linked-to-queensland-covid-duo-20200731-p55hdi.html

    Contact tracers have tracked down almost 2000 people who might have been exposed to the coronavirus after two COVID-positive women spent eight days mingling in Brisbane while infectious.

    Before the virus reached Queensland, the state had 200 people trained in contact tracing, but that number has increased to 1213, including 524 public servants who have been trained up to help during the pandemic.

    Queensland might be the next hot spot.

  7. VIC update:

    Annie Kearney
    @anniemaykearney
    ·
    44m
    VIC #COVID19 update:
    – 397 new cases
    – 37 linked to outbreaks
    -360 under investigation
    -3 more deaths, death toll now 116.
    -5919 active cases
    – 379 people in hospital
    – 41 people in ICU (24 of those are on ventilators)
    -1,008 active cases in aged care
    @10NewsFirstMelb

  8. Canberra update:

    ACT Health
    @ACTHealth
    ·
    11m
    ACT COVID-19 update (1 August 2020)

    Zero active cases of COVID-19 in the ACT
    ▪️
    Cases today: 0
    ▪️
    Active cases: 0
    ▪️
    Test results (past 24 hours): 858
    ▪️
    Negative tests: 51,601
    ▪️
    Total cases: 113
    ▪️
    Recovered: 110
    ▪️
    Lives lost: 3
    ℹ️
    http://covid19.act.gov.au

  9. Ingrid M
    @iMusing
    ·
    18h
    incredible* that the guff from AG Porter in these quotes gives exactly zero indication that the case has been brought under a Chapter IV (Finance and Trade) section of the constitution.
    Clive Palmer’s legal challenge to bring down WA’s hard border supported by Attorney-General
    A document released by the West Australian Government shows Christian Porter intervened “in support of the position” of Clive Palmer in the Queensland businessman’s bid to remove WA’s hard border.
    abc.net.au

  10. Josh Lederman
    @JoshNBCNews
    Level 1:
    BREAKING: Trump tells reporters aboard Air Force One he is banning TikTok
    12:20 PM · Aug 1, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

    Now he’s done it.

  11. Firefox @ #110 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 11:10 am

    Oh oh, NSW up to 17 cases today. It’s starting to creep up like Vic’s was just before their second wave. Let’s hope it doesn’t go the same way.

    NSW new cases for the last 15 days:
    15, 18, 20, 13, 16, 19, 7, 15, 14, 17, 14, 19, 18, 21, 17.

    Still on a knife edge as it has been for weeks, but I can’t see how “oh oh, up to 17” fits this data.

  12. Yep. Something that needs to be discussed more

    Rafael Epstein
    @Raf_Epstein
    ·
    51m
    “I used to go to the gym 3 times a week.”

    39 y.o. says “Now my physical activity is bed to couch, maybe couch to kitchen.”

    She’s had just 3 weeks since March when her body temperature was normal.

    Long term COVID. You DONT want this
    From ‘brain fog’ to heart damage, COVID-19’s lingering problems alarm scientists
    Some COVID-19 survivors are still sick months later. Doctors want to learn why and what they can do
    sciencemag.org
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

  13. Hmmm

    Media
    Likes
    Heidi Murphy’s Tweets
    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    31m
    Premier says he is unable to comment on reports that some industries and particularly transport sector been told to prepare for a shutdown from Monday 3rd.
    Only that “we have lots of conversations” and “I wouldn’t characterise it that way.”

  14. I can see why it appeals to Nicky!

    Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    19m
    If MMT is such a wonderful concept, thoroughly researched as it is and carefully analysed, why no govt in the world is embracing its key premises?
    Could it be because it is a series of unworkable & at the end of the day impractical platitudes?

  15. Some smart punters starting to hedge their Trump book.

    John Hewson
    @JohnRHewson
    ·
    28m
    Betting sites in US have seen money coming in on Pence (even Pompeo) for President obviously presuming that such a weak individual as Trump may quit unwilling to face the prospect of losing due to damage he has done to America and Americans

  16. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 12:51 pm

    I can see why it appeals to Nicky!

    Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    19m
    If MMT is such a wonderful concept, thoroughly researched as it is and carefully analysed, why no govt in the world is embracing its key premises?
    Could it be because it is a series of unworkable & at the end of the day impractical platitudes?

    If governments around the would haven’t embraced the concept why are the successful economies running deficits greater than 100% of GDP. Why does Japan have a deficit of 237% of GDP, why does the USA have a deficit of 107% and Singapore 126% for example.

  17. Why Private Aged Care and not State run Aged Care has borne the brunt of COVID19:
    _______________
    One reason there are more coronavirus cases in private and non-profit aged care is that most residences in Victoria are not run by the state.

    There are 800 aged care facilities in Victoria, comprising 56,000 beds.

    Of those, 622 facilities are privately run and not-for-profits — regulated by the Commonwealth — and 178 are run by the Victorian Government.

    About 10 per cent of all aged care beds in the state are publicly-owned…..

    Another key factor is geographical location.

    The vast majority of aged care facilities in metropolitan Melbourne are run by the private and non-profit sector, whereas most of the state’s aged care homes are in regional areas.

    The majority of COVID-19 cases in Victoria are centred in the city — of the 10,577 cases recorded since the pandemic began, 595 are from regional Victoria.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-01/why-more-covid-19-cases-in-private-aged-care-than-public-sector/12503212


  18. Victoria says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 12:56 pm
    GG
    What are the odds of Victoria shutting down in terms of transport, distribution, etc?

    From what I am hearing pretty dam good.

  19. Player One @ #95 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 10:44 am

    Jack Waterford with some sensible advice for Albo …

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6858118/the-courage-deficit-will-albanese-die-wondering

    Labor’s present sotto voce criticisms are not being heard by the public – scarcely even by that part of the political class consumed by the day-to-day exchanges. An effective opposition has to be heard. It ought to have an alternative approach – one which, one might hope, was guided by its philosophical fundamentals. Such criticisms might be respectful but firm. They might be scathing or divisive. But they ought to let the public knows where Labor stands at the most critical moments since the end of World War II.

    Morrison has never been so vulnerable to fundamental attack. It is about time the Albanese army began probing his defences.

    Let’s hope someone in Labor is listening.

    It’s not possible for Albanese to attack when Labor is essentially in policy lockstep with the Govt.

  20. Victoria @ #172 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 1:03 pm

    GG

    So no Woollie Coles deliveries?

    I am sure there will be arrangements for food deliveries and other emergency services.

    However, with 25% of people supposedly self isolating but instead out and about in the community possibly spreading the virus, they have to take the next step. I’m sure their will be a hard focus on enforcement too.

  21. Victoria
    “ Conversation
    Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    Aged care, security guards at quarantine hotels, some of the abbatoirs: all the same problem. Casualised workforce with no basic protections (sick leave). COVID shows us the toxicity & stupidity of this private profit/public liability model. Needs basic political change: vote!
    10:45 AM · Aug 1, 2020·Twitter Web App”

    Thanks Victoria for linking this. Everyone in non-fascist politics knows this. But its great to see a Nobel-prize winning doctor say it. Quite hard for Andrew Bolt or Scomo to say that they know better, though no doubt they will both try.

    Albo and Andrews should both cite this as the real cause of the problem.

  22. Socrates says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 1:44 pm
    Victoria
    “ Conversation
    Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    Aged care, security guards at quarantine hotels, some of the abbatoirs: all the same problem. Casualised workforce with no basic protections (sick leave). COVID shows us the toxicity & stupidity of this private profit/public liability model. Needs basic political change: vote!
    10:45 AM · Aug 1, 2020·Twitter Web App”

    Thanks Victoria for linking this. Everyone in non-fascist politics knows this. But its great to see a Nobel-prize winning doctor say it. Quite hard for Andrew Bolt or Scomo to say that they know better, though no doubt they will both try.

    Morrison won’t directly attack him but will leave it to some of the usual suspects in the LNP to do so.

    The lowlife at Murdoch media and Sky after dark will attack him viciously, claiming he knows nothing about employment conditions and should stick to medicine.

  23. Citizen

    We might say the same about the Murdoch and Sky pundits knowing nothing about medicine and that they should stick to journalism. Though for some genuine journalism would be a career change, since they have been full time media manipulators for the causes that pay them for some years.

  24. Socrates
    Mentally running through all the areas of society that are underpinned by a reliance on low paid insecure work makes one wonder why the government didn’t acknowledge these workers for support.
    With everything from cleaning of most public spaces, care for the most vulnerable, warehouse work of most commodities, food processing and even security how did the government not know that if these people had no financial support they would have to continue to work and thus spread the virus.

    This crisis needed everybody pulling together, instead the government set up a them and us narrative. The government said it was providing support and those that didn’t qualify had to fend for themselves. They are now spreading the virus far and wide and everyone is paying the price.

    I hope all the quite Australians learn the lesson that undermining and dividing society by ethnicity and status can be very damaging to everyone.

  25. Assantdj
    “ I hope all the quite Australians learn the lesson that undermining and dividing society by ethnicity and status can be very damaging to everyone.”

    Perhaps they will reflect on that as they bury their grandparents.

  26. frednk says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 12:56 pm
    Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 12:51 pm

    I can see why it appeals to Nicky!

    Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    19m
    If MMT is such a wonderful concept, thoroughly researched as it is and carefully analysed, why no govt in the world is embracing its key premises?
    Could it be because it is a series of unworkable & at the end of the day impractical platitudes?

    If governments around the would haven’t embraced the concept why are the successful economies running deficits greater than 100% of GDP. Why does Japan have a deficit of 237% of GDP, why does the USA have a deficit of 107% and Singapore 126% for example.

    I think the ratio is intended to be debt:GDP. Japan is not running a fiscal deficit of 237% of annual output, for example.

    There’s no particular reason to describe debt in this way. It’s a pointless convention.

    Annual surplus/deficits can be meaningfully measured against output and employment. This describes the extent to which an economy requires social spending to sustain full employment.

    Since social spending registers in the real economy but can be invoked at will, this measures the value we place on work and working people. We are not constrained financially in this. We are constrained by real resources and by ideological precepts. One constraint is real. The other is artificially imposed.

    We can already see that social spending has been frequent and widely invoked. It’s just not called social spending. It has been mystified. We should demystify social demand/social spending. The actual limits are related to supply, not to demand. We can adjust supply over time to match the level of demand that we think is necessary to sustain the labour force in work.

    None of this is theoretically problematic.

  27. Assantdj says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 2:24 pm
    Socrates
    Mentally running through all the areas of society that are underpinned by a reliance on low paid insecure work makes one wonder why the government didn’t acknowledge these workers for support.
    With everything from cleaning of most public spaces, care for the most vulnerable, warehouse work of most commodities, food processing and even security how did the government not know that if these people had no financial support they would have to continue to work and thus spread the virus.

    This crisis needed everybody pulling together, instead the government set up a them and us narrative. The government said it was providing support and those that didn’t qualify had to fend for themselves. They are now spreading the virus far and wide and everyone is paying the price.

    I hope all the quite Australians learn the lesson that undermining and dividing society by ethnicity and status can be very damaging to everyone.

    The LNP response to COVID has been conditioned by the political disposition/ideological impulses. They cannot help themselves. The last thing they believe in is the efficacy of a State action. The second last thing they believe in is the dignity of working people, especially of the least-well paid. They will not use State financial power to support the status/security/capacity of low paid workers. Consequently the pandemic will run harder and further than would otherwise be the case.

  28. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 1:26 pm
    Player One @ #95 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 10:44 am

    Jack Waterford with some sensible advice for Albo …

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6858118/the-courage-deficit-will-albanese-die-wondering

    Labor’s present sotto voce criticisms are not being heard by the public – scarcely even by that part of the political class consumed by the day-to-day exchanges. An effective opposition has to be heard. It ought to have an alternative approach – one which, one might hope, was guided by its philosophical fundamentals. Such criticisms might be respectful but firm. They might be scathing or divisive. But they ought to let the public knows where Labor stands at the most critical moments since the end of World War II.

    Morrison has never been so vulnerable to fundamental attack. It is about time the Albanese army began probing his defences.
    Let’s hope someone in Labor is listening.
    It’s not possible for Albanese to attack when Labor is essentially in policy lockstep with the Govt.
    ______________________
    Good post – the reality is in the midst of an enormous economic and health challenge Labor should be ahead 60-40. Its an indictment on them that they aren’t.

  29. Lars Von Trier
    Good post – the reality is in the midst of an enormous economic and health challenge Labor should be ahead 60-40. Its an indictment on them that they aren’t.

    Boring Troll alert.

    Btw, why isn’t Libs on 60-40 ?

  30. Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    Jul 30
    Since the start of the pandemic:

    — Jeff Bezos’ wealth has grown by $73,000,000,000

    — Mark Zuckerberg’s wealth has grown by $31,000,000,000

    — 30,000,000 Americans are unemployed

    — 29,000,000 Americans are at risk of eviction

    Break up Big Tech. Tax the rich.

  31. guytaursays:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 3:33 pm
    Victoria

    Oh dear. Quoting Robert Reich. Now you are of the hard left
    _______________
    It will pass. Give it a few minutes.

  32. So now, every time I look at a current news item, the issue is the stupid populace – not leadership errors…To turn it around, the leaders get the followers that have voted for them……How does any leader deal with “stupid”?

  33. This from today’s Fremantle Herald – together with a ‘nice’ pic of Ross Drennan shoulder to shoulder with Michaelia and the Liberal candidate for Freo. Not totally convinced slagging off your workers as lazy dole bludgers to the media is a wise business choice in this town……

    “Ms Cash was in town to promote the party’s state candidate for Fremantle Miquela Riley (left), spruik the Coalition’s first tranche of cuts to business tax, and talk to traders about their experiences with JobKeeper and Job Seeker. Ms Cash said the Morrison government wasn’t siding with mining billionaire Clive Palmer in his High Court challenge to WA’s border closures, but given it was a constitutional matter wanted to ensure its perspective was heard.

    However, she said WA’s unemployment rate was 8.1 per cent and would have been higher without JobKeeper, so the premier wasn’t being upfront pretending WA was doing fine without the rest of the country. Ms Cash was blown away by the rebirth of Freo’s synagogue into a foodie heaven; co-owner Ross Drennan (right) said JobKeeper had been helpful keeping staff on board during the shutdown, but said it had been difficult to convince people to come back to work when the $750 weekly payment was more than they’d been receiving before the pandemic.”

  34. As succinct and on the money as ever. Happy Birthday, Sally McManus:

    Sally McManus
    @sallymcmanus

    The top coronavirus super-spreaders are casual work and sub-contracting.

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