Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

  1. And for the envy of others, or something else, walked passed my local coffee corner an hour or two ago………………….at least 40 people clustered together having a fine old time in Perth, Sandgropia……………. Lucky us or are we too living in a fool’s paradise?
    Palmer had a full two page spread in The West newspaper today………………… If he should show his face in Perth, a rotten egg thrown at him will be the least of his worries………………

  2. Cat

    Just be smug with the conclusion pointed out by Katherine Murphy and Peter Lewis. The polling shows constructive oppositions are doing better with voters than the purely partisan ones like Victoria’s Opposition.

    My conclusion is different. My conclusion is that voters are punishing science deniers and rewarding politicians that listen to science.
    Maybe that’s what is meant by constructive. It doesn’t sound like it to me.

    Edit: maybe be smug is the wrong expression so ignore that bit.

  3. Citizen – you commented above about bushfire alerts – already – for NSW. That’s been concerning me , given that last year’s fire season began in August. The thought that people will have to fight fires and possibly rescue and house people from fire affected communities, some of whom may need hospitalisation, all in the environment of the pandemic and while trying to maintain social distancing, is very sobering.

  4. Sorry should have written debt to GDP ratio.
    Why does Japan have a dept/GDP ration of 237%, why does the USA have a debt to deficit ratio of 107% and Singapore 126%.

    It has always struck me as odd. The successful economies have high debt/GDP ratios yet wankers like the Liberals successfully carry on with their debt truck.

    The sin; because of the rush to open the economy up the Liberals have pissed 60 billion dollars down the drain.

  5. FredNK

    That’s why Thatcherism and Reaganism commonly referred to as neoliberalism is so toxic.

    People are realising the government does not have a household budget.

    Edit: It’s why Kevin Rudd beat Howard. He talked about the government budget in how it affected the household budget.

  6. LvT, you’re normally remarkably adept at adding a veneer of plausible deniability to your stirring/trolling, but you’re stumbling right over the line with this “Labor should be ahead 60-40” bullshit.

  7. guytaur says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 4:05 pm

    …… pointed out by Katherine Murphy and Peter Lewis. The polling shows constructive oppositions are doing better with voters than the purely partisan ones like Victoria’s Opposition.

    Makes a lot of sense. The politicisation of widespread public illness and the fears that go with it is very unpopular with voters.

    ….which, thinking back, reminds me of the politicisation of the pandemic by Bandt some weeks ago, and invites the question….is Bandt an agent of viral transmission? Is he a co-author of the contagion and the deaths we now see?

    Is Bandt, along with the Victorian Liberals and the gang from News Corp, responsible for modelling resistance to behaviour that would arrest social spread of the virus?

    Are they problem?

  8. You saying Bandt was doing something different from Bill Shorten is you doing the partisan politcs of a pandemic.

    Your trolling problem in a nutshell.

  9. While I am devastated by what is happening especially in Victoria I have to admit a small part of me pleased that this is happening.
    I can’t help feeling that what was seen as initial success in fighting the virus meant that the underlying problems in our society would again be papered over as life returned to normal

    Morrisons rhetoric around being good fiscal managers, pushing for more tax cuts to business, the same old dole bludgers not wanting to work was indicating that from the governments point of view nothing needed to change. The discussions around industrial flexibility and the need to push through reforms that further disadvantaged the low paid were being accepted as good management.

    As Victoria has struggled, and more and more clusters are uncovered of people working because they have no security, hopefully more people are starting to question the status quo. If the government now tries to push industrial reform that further entrenches these issues who are the public going to side with. Will the union continue to be on a hiding to nothing or will more people be willing to acknowledge that the status quo has to change.

    So for now I feel guilty that part of me welcomes the disaster that I hope will be a catalyst for long term reform.

  10. Assantdj

    Don’t feel guilty. You are pointing out the hope for a silver lining. The hope that something better will come out of this.

  11. lizzie @ #204 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 3:55 pm

    C@t

    Michaelia made sure she pushed all the right buttons re people on jobxxx refusing to work.

    I think that Thatcherite helmet head of hair of hers will collide with reality and be shattered by the realisation that not everyone who is out of a job now is a shirker. And I think that the people that will be like that for a while to come yet will not be so silly as to fall for her schtick. They vote too. 🙂

  12. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 12:51 pm

    I can see why it appeals to Nicky!

    Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    19m
    If MMT is such a wonderful concept, thoroughly researched as it is and carefully analysed, why no govt in the world is embracing its key premises?
    Could it be because it is a series of unworkable & at the end of the day impractical platitudes?
    —————————
    GG
    MMT’s basic idea is that central banks can create money which they have been doing to support financial markets and the banks and the other theme is that a floating currency allows a country to carry more debt and the Australian Dollar has been rallying for months despite higher public debt.

  13. C@t

    I suppose we who follow the politics closely find it easy to recognise all the scripted speeches and wonder why everyone else doesn’t.

  14. frednk says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 4:15 pm
    Sorry should have written debt to GDP ratio.
    Why does Japan have a dept/GDP ration of 237%, why does the USA have a debt to deficit ratio of 107% and Singapore 126%.

    It has always struck me as odd.

    The figures described as “debt” are not debt in any meaningful sense of the word. If thought of as entries in a balance sheet, for every dollar lodged as a liability a dollar is lodged elsewhere as an asset. These numbers mostly describe asset creation in the private sector – financial assets that have been mobilised/deployed in the real economy. They signify the supply of fresh capital by the State sector. If the State wanted to recall the capital it could, but that would entail liquidation of assets in the real/private sector, so is not carried out.

    Some economies – Germany and China – create excess national savings. These balances represent under-consumption and/or under-investment in the home economy and are recycled/transferred to enable investment and consumption elsewhere. These imbalances are redeemable….and are inherently unstable.

  15. Victoria says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    Jul 30
    Since the start of the pandemic:

    — Jeff Bezos’ wealth has grown by $73,000,000,000

    — Mark Zuckerberg’s wealth has grown by $31,000,000,000

    — 30,000,000 Americans are unemployed

    — 29,000,000 Americans are at risk of eviction

    Break up Big Tech. Tax the rich.
    ——————————–
    Victoria
    That is a silly tweet from Robert because that wealth has come from rising share prices and from increased earnings and breaking up big tech will only make them richer as Rockefeller discovered after Standard Oil was broken up.

  16. lizzie @ #219 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 4:35 pm

    C@t

    I suppose we who follow the politics closely find it easy to recognise all the scripted speeches and wonder why everyone else doesn’t.

    That is true, we are ahead of the curve. However, eventually, in every politician’s and government’s life, reality catches up to them and all the slick lines in the world can’t cover up for the reality that people are experiencing in the real world away from politics.

  17. David Marler
    @Qldaah

    1 new Qld case. Woman is wife of man confirmed yesterday. She works at Bolton Clark aged care facility in Pinjarra Hills. The couple came into contact with the women who skipped quarantine after returning to Qld from Melbourne via Sydney. #covidqld #qldpol

  18. William Bowe says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 4:27 pm
    Briefly, on the other hand, has no aptitude whatsoever for adding a veneer of plausible deniability to his stirring/trolling.

    Troll? Who, me? I won’t attempt to deny that which is not there, William. Bandt was playing his usual Greenist tune. He encouraged refusal/contra behaviours….the opposite of what he should have been modelling. The results are in the infection numbers.

  19. Mexicanbeemer @ #221 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 4:41 pm

    Victoria says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    Jul 30
    Since the start of the pandemic:

    — Jeff Bezos’ wealth has grown by $73,000,000,000

    — Mark Zuckerberg’s wealth has grown by $31,000,000,000

    — 30,000,000 Americans are unemployed

    — 29,000,000 Americans are at risk of eviction

    Break up Big Tech. Tax the rich.
    ——————————–
    Victoria
    That is a silly tweet from Robert because that wealth has come from rising share prices and from increased earnings and breaking up big tech will only make them richer as Rockefeller discovered after Standard Oil was broken up.

    Well I hope that Big Tech IS broken up and the increased wealth of the individuals who control the companies is put to good philanthropic use by them. You can’t take it with you.

  20. There’s no way Labor should be up 60-40 given how corrupted and inept they are.

    When a self-described muppet show govt can dominate you, it’s all the evidence you need.

  21. Non says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 4:43 pm
    Troll? Who, me? I won’t attempt to deny that which is not there, William. Bandt was playing his usual Greenist tune. He encouraged refusal/contra behaviours….the opposite of what he should have been modelling. The results are in the infection numbers.
    _________
    Breifly demonstrates another ‘truth’ from the COVID situation. Not only do more cases each day demonstrate that Andrews is doing a great job, but also that everyone else is to blame for the disaster but Andrews. In this case, Bandt. But it could be Morrison, O’Brien, Tim Dim Sim, Mario the security guard, whoever.

  22. Cat

    Yes. Even the right wing media gets shafted by reality.

    Their rhetoric of science denial first with tobacco then with climate science denial and now with a pandemic looks like it will see a landslide win to Biden.

    Of course that fact denial applies even more to the “fuzzy science” of economics.

    The virus has exposed poverty is a huge risk factor for the virus. Poverty means insecure workers risking their lives to put food on the table. Poverty means more dense housing. That’s where people are lucky enough to have housing.

  23. William Bowe @ #185 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 4:20 pm

    LvT, you’re normally remarkably adept at adding a veneer of plausible deniability to your stirring/trolling, but you’re stumbling right over the line with this “Labor should be ahead 60-40” bullshit.

    Maybe he has grown bored with his current skin and is up for a new start as something else.

  24. C@T
    There needs to be greater regulation of companies like Facebook but whether that leads to breaking them up needs to be looked at against what are the benefits because in some cases it isn’t a simply break up.

  25. I have noted an increase in the mention of jobkeepers refusing to work in various stories. The story or link that is not being made is that some people take part time work because that is best for their circumstances.

    This push to make jobkeepers work whatever hours their employer dictates will just push more people, predominantly women, into casual jobs. Many workers have part time hours because it allows them to minimise child care. Maybe it’s so some time is spent with their husband, maybe they also provide assistance to an elderly relative or are studying.
    These workers have negotiated hours that suit them and are now expected to reorganise all the moving parts of their life so the boss doesn’t have to re-engage the casual. For many of these workers this comes at a cost, increased Childcare being the most expensive part of the equation. If the business you are working in requires additional hours to run it would indicate that business is growing. This means at some point the employer needs to start reengaging its workforce.

    The employer groups that are selling this message are doing it for two reasons. One is to try and keep pressure on the government to make the IR rule changes permanent and the other is to cower workers into believing that the only choice they have is to give up any pretence they have a choice in when they provide labor and what it is worth.

  26. Davidwh @ #215 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 4:29 pm

    Probably most people are more concerned about C-19, families and jobs to be thinking about the politics.

    But it surely worth pointing out how “the politics” has made us uniquely vulnerable to natural catastrophes, such as the drought, the bushfires and the virus.

    Or, at least, you might think a decent opposition party would do so 🙁


  27. Non says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 4:37 pm

    The figures described as “debt” are not debt in any meaningful sense of the word. If thought of as

    Some economies – Germany and China – create excess national savings. These balances represent under-consumption and/or under-investment in the home economy and are recycled/transferred to enable investment and consumption elsewhere. These imbalances are redeemable….and are inherently unstable.

    Are you sure about Chine. China generates a trading excess for sure; but the internal debt is around 300%. The traditional argument, China has this is a problem. MMT says, so what, the government debt is in the local currency, no-one can call it in.

    Germany does not have it’s own currency. The European ratio is about 80%.

  28. Mexicanbeemer @ #232 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 4:53 pm

    Rex
    If only someone ate normal food instead of bat soup!

    Some people, myself included, find the idea of consuming pork distasteful, given how riddled with human-infecting diseases and parasites pigs generally are.

    Others find the idea of eating dog and horse meat disgusting.

    It’s a cultural thing.

  29. Popularising resistance to behavioural change will just make the pandemic worse. We can see this in Trumpland. We can see it in the cases involving the young women and the Karens of the world. Rather than modelling intransigence we have to model consent and collaboration. But people will indulge themselves. They like it. It’s plum pudding. They will feed themselves and feel they’ve done well.

  30. “Assantdjsays:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 4:53 pm
    I have noted an increase in the mention of jobkeepers refusing to work in various stories. ”

    Um, don’t believe these stories? Even if the individual anecdote is true, that Diane mean there are a sufficient number of people doing it.

  31. Well, at least I got to go see a local band the other night, before Clive screws it all up for everyone over here.

    Anyone in WA notice how our little branch on nine media (WAtoday) is already starting the anti-McGowan narrative.

  32. “The EU will never pay it’s debt off at this rate, neither will USA”

    They’ll pay off the current debt while accumulating new debt. And it won’t matter.


  33. Zerlo says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:02 pm

    frednk

    The EU will never pay it’s debt off at this rate, neither will USA.

    That is the point, they don’t have to.
    1) Who is going to call it in?
    2) As the debt is written in the currency they issue, what exactly is the problem if the planet vodo does?


  34. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:05 pm

    The debt does get paid when a new round of bonds are issued.

    Why do they have to issue bonds to issue currency? Mow the grass looking for the answer to that question. MMT deals with the reality, they don’t.

  35. Mexicanbeemer

    PlayerOne
    My comment was in response to Rex and many Chinese people do not eat Bat so its not cultural.

    ‘Chinese people’ are not a monolithic culture.

  36. The whole let’s use the lazy person rhetoric in regards to JobKeeper needs to be called out for putting partisan politics ahead of people’s health it is.

    Of course the LNP in pushing this cannot see how their ideology is a crucial part of spreading the virus. Trump at least was honest with openly declaring we will force people to work in abbatoirs at risk of their lives.


  37. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    Frednk
    The debt wont just be cancelled because that would be classed as a default.

    If the debt is in the local currency, it won’t be cancelled, it will be paid as promised.

  38. Frednk
    Issuing bonds and issuing currencies are not related. If the government choose not to pay bond investors then that government is failing its obligations that would undermine the whole economy because the government is central to the economy and foreign held debt is a liability.

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