Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

  1. poroti says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:09 pm

    Mexicanbeemer

    PlayerOne
    My comment was in response to Rex and many Chinese people do not eat Bat so its not cultural.

    ‘Chinese people’ are not a monolithic culture.
    —————————————–
    Poroti
    It was PlayerOne that brought up the Chinese by talking about culture.

  2. Blobbit
    The point I was trying to make is that yes this may be happening but there are valid reasons for it.
    Cash is using it as an excuse to blame workers who are not helping the boss and are bludging off the government.
    The media are more than happy to accept that contention.
    Why can’t the media come up with some examples of people declining the extra work and the reasons, added Childcare, second job, no access to transport at night, caring for elderly family, study obligations. There are numerous good reasons for people not to want to work extra hours.

    Maybe some people are refusing to help out because of the relationship with their employer. If someone has been requesting additional hours or full time work and the employer just keeps employing casuals then you may not want to suddenly change your life because he wants to save money.

  3. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:16 pm

    Frednk
    Issuing bonds and issuing currencies are not related.

    Bingo.

    If the government choose not to pay bond investors then that government is failing its obligations that would undermine the whole economy because the government is central to the economy and foreign held debt is a liability.

    Why would the Australian government issues bonds in a foreign currency?
    If the debt is in the Australian currency why would it not pay? In the end it is no more than a bit manipulation in a computer.

  4. frednk says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:10 pm

    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    Frednk
    The debt wont just be cancelled because that would be classed as a default.

    If the debt is in the local currency, it won’t be cancelled, it will be paid as promised.
    ————————–
    Frednk
    If a bond is called in ahead of its maturity or the coupon rate is cut then that is classed by some as a default and there is little reason for the government to default.

  5. @annierun
    ·
    Jul 30
    Replying to
    @MichaelWestBiz
    @RonniSalt

    Bupa wanted $360,000 as a bond from my father. The community based aged care in the same town charged $190,000 and the care is 1000% better. When I told bupa dad did not have that much money I was told to see a financial planner. I fear for others put in this position.

  6. Mexicanbeemer @ #230 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 4:49 pm

    C@T
    There is a case for greater regulation of companies like Facebook but whether that leads to breaking them up needs to be looked at against what are the benefits because in some cases it isn’t a simply break up.

    Mexican,
    I receive a regular newsletter from the editor of the Tech section of The New York Times, and I value her perspective enormously. I don’t think it’s a breach of copyright to reprint it because it’s never in the NYT itself and I have paid to own it/receive it. This week it was about the Big 4 Tech companies and their appearance before Congress and it provides much food for thought and insight:

    Big Tech’s backlash is just starting

    By Shira Ovide

    Wednesday’s five-plus-hour congressional probing of the bosses of America’s tech giants did not reveal a singular “gotcha” moment or smoking gun email. We’ve heard many of these examples of Big Tech abuse before.

    But the power of this hearing and others like it was the cumulative repetition of tales of abusive behavior, and evidence of the harm this has had on people’s lives.

    The spectacle also showed that the impact of congressional investigations is the digging that happens when the C-SPAN cameras are turned off.

    Worries about America’s tech stars have swirled for years. It’s clear now that this isn’t going away. In world capitals, courtrooms and among the public, we are wrestling with what it means for tech giants to have enormous influence on our lives, elections, economy and minds.

    And while what happens to the future of Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook is anyone’s guess, it was clear from Wednesday’s hearing that Congress was pointing the way for other branches of government to pick up the digging from here.

    We saw on Wednesday old emails and texts from Mark Zuckerberg, worried about Facebook losing ground to Instagram and suggesting that buying competing apps is an effective way to take out the competition. The big deal here: Trying to reduce competition by purchasing a rival is a violation of antitrust law. (Zuckerberg said that Instagram’s success wasn’t assured when Facebook bought it.)

    Representatives said that their interviews with former Amazon employees backed up news reports that the company used private data from its merchants to make its own version of their products.

    The subcommittee discussed their conversations with companies that claimed Google funneled web searches to services it owned rather than to rivals like Yelp. Through company documents and questioning, members of Congress picked apart Apple’s stance that it treats all app developers the same.

    My colleague Kevin Roose wrote that the tech bosses seemed to be “taken off guard by the rigor and depth of the questions they faced.”

    The Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission are also investigating whether these companies abuse their power, and I bet they watched closely. The U.S. government’s antitrust case against Microsoft more than 20 years ago was built, in part, on the emails of Bill Gates and other Microsoft executives discussing how they planned to kill upstart competitors.

    Here’s one more sign that the backlash against Big Tech has only just begun: The shouty tech critics in Congress and the tech bosses all seemed to agree that these four companies have a meaningful impact on many people’s lives.

    The tech bosses focused on the good that comes from their companies’ size, reach and influence. A New York bakery finds customers by buying advertisements on Google. Merchants can thrive by selling their products or apps on Amazon or Apple.

    The representatives pointed out examples of the dark side of Big Tech’s size, reach and influence. In the pin drop moment of the hearing, a House member played an audio recording of a book seller saying her family was struggling because of a change Amazon apparently made that dried up her sales there.

    The subcommittee chairman said these tech powers can pick the winners and the losers. That might be stretching it. But both sides demonstrated that these four companies have a profound say in who wins or loses.

    Lawmakers of all political stripes seemed uncomfortable with the knowledge that four companies have this much influence. Beyond the legal antitrust questions at issue, it’s this feeling of discomfort that makes it hard to imagine that nothing will change for these tech superpowers.

  7. lizzie @ #255 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 5:21 pm

    @annierun
    ·
    Jul 30
    Replying to
    @MichaelWestBiz
    @RonniSalt

    Bupa wanted $360,000 as a bond from my father. The community based aged care in the same town charged $190,000 and the care is 1000% better. When I told bupa dad did not have that much money I was told to see a financial planner. I fear for others put in this position.

    I wish Bupa would bugger off back to England. They are a cancer on our Health and Aged Care systems.

  8. Why do they have to issue bonds to issue currency?

    They don’t. They don’t. They don’t.

    That’s a key point.

    Bond issuance by a currency issuer is a purely voluntary exercise. It is an asset swap for the private sector. Not a borrowing operation for the government.

    Bond issuance by currency issuers is a relic from the Bretton Woods system that disintegrated in 1971, when the US Government stopped promising to convert its currency into gold on demand at a fixed rate of exchange.

    It would be best to abandon the practice of currency issuer bond issuance because all it does is confuse people. It makes people think that the currency issuer borrows its own currency from the non-government sector. It doesn’t, not in substance, even if voluntarily adopted accounting procedures create that appearance.

    When the currency issuer makes payments into the non-government sector, it is creating currency. When the currency issuer receives payments from the non-government sector (taxes, fees, fines etc), the government is effectively destroying currency. Deleting it. The main purpose of requiring payments from the non-government sector is to create demand for the currency.

    In no meaningful sense can it be said that a currency issuer earns, saves, or borrows its own currency. After all, the currency is something that it creates at at will, using keystrokes on a computer.


  9. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:21 pm

    Frednk
    If a bond is called in ahead of its maturity or the coupon rate is cut then that is classed by some as a default and there is little reason for the government to default.

    All true, as the debt is in the currency the government can generate at will, why would they bother to buy it back or reduce the coupon rate.

    The question is, why was the debt issued in the first place?

    We have agreed issuing debt and currency are not related.

  10. “Assantdjsays:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:18 pm
    Blobbit
    The point I was trying to make is that yes this may be happening but there are valid reasons for it.”

    I know. I wasn’t saying you’re wrong, all I’m saying is that getting worried about something that’s as common as seeing a real Bunyip is at best pointless, at worst a distraction from real concerns.

  11. Frednk
    The government has a number of tools for raising revenue and for influencing the economy which is why government should keep those tools available.

  12. I like Micheala Cash. I like Malaria and war as well.
    Once, I imagined waking up next to her. After headbutting the mirror I dealt with my shame.

  13. Mexicanbeemer @ #251 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 5:18 pm

    poroti says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:09 pm

    Mexicanbeemer

    PlayerOne
    My comment was in response to Rex and many Chinese people do not eat Bat so its not cultural.

    ‘Chinese people’ are not a monolithic culture.
    —————————————–
    Poroti
    It was PlayerOne that brought up the Chinese by talking about culture.

    I don’t recall mentioning Chinese.

  14. MeidasTouch.com
    @MeidasTouch
    Level 1:
    Oh my god. The comments on Trump’s Facebook ads are devasating. None of his supporters can afford to donate to him because they lost their jobs in the Trump Depression.
    4:42 PM · Aug 1, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

  15. Kate Evans
    @katiekins1978
    Level 3:
    Replying to
    @natalieresists3
    and
    @MeidasTouch
    I get TWELVE emails from the trump campaign every day, and I live in the U.K.
    Thinking face

    (Didn’t subscribe to it, and I enjoy the desperation tbh)

  16. Blobbit
    I think that when the media allows influential people, especially politicians make negative or untrue assertions and don’t call them out on it, they are in effect condoning it.

    People need to know the two sides of the story, it’s the reason we have to listen to the climate deniers, everybody should get a voice. So why don’t the media look for the second side of the government story.

    The irony of these kinds of stories are they are vilifying people who have a job, the lifters. So now the lifters are only lifters if they have a job and give up all their industrial rights as well. Jobkeeper is a government scheme, if it has a flaw it is of the governments making.

    Why are employment contracts not enforceable by workers, they didn’t ask for a set payment, they didn’t ask for government assistance. It is galling for many that they have to work 60 hours a fortnight, providing free labor to the boss when they could get almost as much staying at home. The government implemented this scheme to keep businesses going, the workers are putting in the effort, the government is using our taxes to maintain the scheme but the employer doesn’t have to make any guarantees that workers will be maintained after the scheme finishes. In fact some employers are already war gaming how too maximise the benefits over the next period and are talking about laying off staff.

  17. “Assantdjsays:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 5:45 pm
    Blobbit
    I think that when the media allows influential people, especially politicians make negative or untrue assertions and don’t call them out on it, they are in effect condoning it.”

    Absolutely agree.

    I guess all in trying to say is that it’s a bit pointless trying to justify something that isn’t happening.

    Anyway, we’re agreeing that people turning down jobs isn’t actually a problem.

  18. Zerlo @ #265 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 5:43 pm

    MeidasTouch.com
    @MeidasTouch
    Level 1:
    Oh my god. The comments on Trump’s Facebook ads are devasating. None of his supporters can afford to donate to him because they lost their jobs in the Trump Depression.
    4:42 PM · Aug 1, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    That photo of Trump reminds me of those people in America who used to drink a solution containing Mercury was it? and over the years they ended up with skin that had a metallic glow to it.

  19. I hope people remember about what happened to deductions to Trump’s charities before they believe that bulldust about their donations will be ‘600% matched’ by, who exactly? The begging letter doesn’t say.

  20. C@tmomma
    That photo of Trump reminds me of those people in America who used to drink a solution containing Mercury was it? and over the years they ended up with skin that had a metallic glow to it.

    If he stood still for a while, the pigeons might mistake him for a bronze statue and poop on him.

  21. why not nath?

    It made me laugh in the middle of a pandemic and the increasing risk of increased restriction on movement. The best therapy.

  22. Griff says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 6:20 pm

    why not nath?
    ______
    If it had been said of Gillard it would have gone down as heinous misogyny.

  23. That photo of Trump reminds me of those people in America who used to drink a solution containing Mercury was it? and over the years they ended up with skin that had a metallic glow to it.

    Put him in a jumpsuit and he’d look like an alien in Star Trek.

  24. The monthly trailer park party seemed to be going well tonight until I arrived with my cross Staffy/Labrador, who immediately went for the throats of the other canine attendees. It took all the strength I have to avoid a blood bath. Out to the Pet Barn tomorrow to buy her a muzzle. “Boogie” is a rescue dog, the former carer of which unequivocally saying that she hasn’t got an aggressive bone in her body – she lied.

  25. Mavis @ #260 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 6:40 pm

    The monthly trailer park party seemed to be going well tonight until I arrived with my cross Staffy/Labrador, who immediately went for the throats of the other canine attendees. It took all the strength I have to avoid a blood bath. Out to the Pet Barn tomorrow to buy her a muzzle. “Boogie” is a rescue dog, the former carer of which unequivocally saying that she hasn’t got an aggressive bone in her body – she lied.

    As always, I’m sure our resident blackboard monitoring till tickler is probably in charge of the till.

  26. There does seem to be a correlation with people named “bill” and woman hating on PB.

    It’s not debate it’s just abuse.

    You never hear either of them say anything positive about Labor woman either.

    Troubling !

    To be fair it may be generational reflecting people who grew up in a less enlightened era.

  27. The Trump-Murdoch bromance hitting a rocky patch?

    Donald J. Trump Retweeted
    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    Jul 30.
    @FoxNews
    reported incorrectly what the Federal Government is doing with respect to Portland. We are demanding that the Governor & Mayor do their job or we will do it for them. To complicated to discuss in a Tweet, but bad reporting by Fox (possibly on purpose!).
    @DHSgov

  28. Lars Von Trier @ #263 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 6:48 pm

    There does seem to be a correlation with people named “bill” and woman hating on PB.

    It’s not debate it’s just abuse.

    You never hear either of them say anything positive about Labor woman either.

    Troubling !

    For a person that likes to change their identity so often , how do we know you’re not really a Bill?

    Troubling.

  29. Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 6:45 pm

    [‘…I’m sure our resident blackboard monitoring till tickler is probably in charge of the till.’]

    You can be shocking, GG, but I still like you, though subtlety – again – is not your strong suit.

  30. Mavis @ #266 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 6:54 pm

    Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 6:45 pm

    [‘…I’m sure our resident blackboard monitoring till tickler is probably in charge of the till.’]

    You can be shocking, GG, but I still like you, though subtlety – again – is not your strong suit.

    Like honesty is not yours?

  31. Katherine Murphy makes an important point:

    [ Officials have been telling me for some months there are underlying weaknesses in the public health infrastructure in Victoria, and those weaknesses became more obvious once the virus jumped the fence.]

    and then moves away from it…

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/01/daniel-andrews-and-scott-morrison-are-locked-in-an-argentinian-tango-on-coronavirus-but-their-grip-is-starting-to-slip

  32. Greensborough Growler:

    Mavis @ #266 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 6:54 pm

    [‘Like honesty is not yours?’]

    Being struck off the High Court and the Supreme Court of Queensland rolls is not enough punishment, plus a little time in the slammer? Surely Catholicism advocates forgiveness?

  33. Shellbell @ #268 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 6:58 pm

    Katherine Murphy makes an important point:

    [ Officials have been telling me for some months there are underlying weaknesses in the public health infrastructure in Victoria, and those weaknesses became more obvious once the virus jumped the fence.]

    and then moves away from it…

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/01/daniel-andrews-and-scott-morrison-are-locked-in-an-argentinian-tango-on-coronavirus-but-their-grip-is-starting-to-slip

    Hmm, the virus is rampant in Aged Care facilities which are a Federal responsibility.

  34. I wonder if the unelected union officals who made the call on rejecting the 850 ADF personnel will be hauled before the quarantine inquiry. Why they were involved in the decision making process i have no idea.

  35. Mavis @ #271 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 7:07 pm

    Greensborough Growler:

    Mavis @ #266 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 6:54 pm

    [‘Like honesty is not yours?’]

    Being struck off the High Court and the Supreme Court of Queensland rolls is not enough punishment, plus a little time in the slammer? Surely Catholicism advocates forgiveness?

    Surely, contrtition and your sacred promise to be a better person would disabuse you of casting aspersions on other posters on the way to redemption.

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