Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

  1. KJ
    As a kid I was told Greece did that to all the commie northern Greeks and Masso’s. Made them change their Slavic names and forced 1st Jan as their birthdays.

  2. The virus is well adapted to being spread by humans. Only by changing our behaviour can spread be prevented. Behavioural change can be achieved by the use of normative examples and by involuntary copying. But likewise, people will also involuntarily copy self-defeating behaviours just as readily as they will adopt useful behaviours. So it’s very important that behaviours that prevent spread be practiced publicly and reinforced by repetition. Politicised contradiction of positive behaviours will certainly undermine reinforcement and the adoption of preventative behaviours.

    Considering the role of copying in behavioural development, I think the critics of Andrews carry a heavy responsibility for propagating the virus. They have licensed dysfunctional, anti-social, clinically dangerous behaviours.

    The self-indulgent, self-gratifying big noting exaggerations of the critics is a serious factor. They should shut up.

  3. nath @ #50 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 7:38 am

    Goll says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 9:33 am

    By George you do it well Nath!
    _______
    All I am doing is expressing my opinion. PB is the only place I have seeing that in my house, Saint Dan cannot be spoken against. And if I do, I suffer in various ways. So, thankyou WB for the chance to peak my mind.

    Maybe you should start listening to those around you instead of always looking for someone to blame!

  4. BB, I think Rex is trying for the most childish contribution. Which is strange as he normally contributes sensible posts.

    Must be the lockdown.

  5. NonSequitur @ #52 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 9:43 am

    The virus is well adapted to being spread by humans. Only by changing our behaviour can spread be prevented. Behavioural change can be achieved by the use of normative examples and by involuntary copying. But likewise, people will also involuntarily copy self-defeating behaviours just as readily as they will adopt useful behaviours. So it’s very important that behaviours that prevent spread be practiced publicly and reinforced by repetition. Politicised contradiction of positive behaviours will certainly undermine reinforcement and the adoption of preventative behaviours.

    Considering the role of copying in behavioural development, I think the critics of Andrews carry a heavy responsibility for propagating the virus. They have licensed dysfunctional, anti-social, clinically dangerous behaviours.

    The self-indulgent, self-gratifying big noting exaggerations of the critics is a serious factor. They should shut up.

    The virus comes in many forms – Covid19, neo-liberalism, climate change denial…

  6. The Spectator Index
    @spectatorindex
    ·
    4m
    BREAKING: Alaska state legislator Gary Knopp and six other people killed as two planes collided in mid-air

  7. BK thanks for the roundup this morning. I found this link particularly interesting:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/31/australias-trilemma-of-providing-good-fast-and-cheap-energy-finally-has-a-clear-solution

    I think Buce will be happy as it solves all his concerns while reducing emissions.

    I was surprised that only 11% of generation needs to stored, the rest is consumed as it is generated. Which apparently will make gas peakers redundant.

    I remember talking to AGL engineers and they say the more the renewables expand the more robust the system becomes, basically because the deficit of wind at times or sunlight in particular areas are compensated for by sun/wind in other areas.

  8. Zerlosays:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 9:50 am
    PeeBee

    I wouldn’t surprise me if the lockdown has made people go insane.
    _____________
    6 months without yum cha. OF course it has.

  9. Simon Katich @ #51 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 9:40 am

    KJ
    As a kid I was told Greece did that to all the commie northern Greeks and *Masso’s. Made them change their Slavic names and forced 1st Jan as their birthdays.

    What’s a “Masso*” I wondered as I pondered the advisability of appropriating the most excellent photo of Mr. Andrews for myself.

    *Greece gained the southern parts of the region with Thessaloniki from the Ottoman Empire after the First Balkan War, and expanded its share in the Second Balkan War against Bulgaria. The boundaries of Greek Macedonia were finalised in the Treaty of Bucharest. In World War I, Macedonia became a battlefield.

  10. Zerlo, that is a serious statement. We had a tragedy on our local train line a few weeks ago. It may have happened ‘anyway’, but the lockdown would not have helped.

  11. It would be nice if journos were more precise when reporting numbers. I’m thinking particularly of the “multiple doctors now testing positive”.

    Multiple means more than one.
    Several means more than two but fewer than many.
    Many is a large number.

    If they have better information, they should say so.

  12. PeeBee

    It is, and not making like a joke or anything, because I was being serious, this whole thing has most likely flipped a few people’s heads recently, I know this situation well, since I work with Department of Health, people have short temper these days and want things done yesterday.

  13. NonSequitur
    The critics you complain about were saying exactly the same thing as you in the leadup to the BLM protests.
    Whats the difference now ?

  14. ”I remember talking to AGL engineers and they say the more the renewables expand the more robust the system becomes, basically because the deficit of wind at times or sunlight in particular areas are compensated for by sun/wind in other areas.”

    Exactly. Saying that the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow is a red herring, usually cited by those opposed to renewable power.

  15. Paul Bongiorno on private aged care….

    “According to a 2018 report by the Tax Justice Network Australia, between them the six largest private aged-care companies received more than $2.17 billion in annual government subsidies, which made up 72 per cent of their revenue. Their combined annual profit was $210 million.

    The interim report of the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety – tabled last October, almost six months before Covid-19 struck here – was a grim harbinger of an unfolding disaster that could only get worse.

    It found the aged-care system failed to meet the needs of its older, vulnerable citizens: “It does not deliver uniformly safe and quality care for older people. It is unkind and uncaring towards them. In too many instances, it simply neglects them.”

    These findings in 2019 are sad testimony that nothing much – if anything – has changed in 14 years. In 2006, an aunt of mine, despite paying thousands of dollars for her care, died in pain with suppurating bedsores. She was in a Moran Health Care facility in Victoria. The place looked like a six-star hotel; the care was virtually non-existent. A caller to Radio National’s Life Matters midweek recounted a similar experience. She described the “home” in which her mother died as “a chandeliered mausoleum”.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2020/08/01/aged-care-failings-hurt-morrison/159620400010202

  16. Massos – Macedonians.

    I am thinking my memory has played tricks and you are right. It wasn’t the commies. It must have been well before that as you have stated. I have conflated two related things but separated by decades!

    But they definitely Greekified the names and records of birthdates were simplified. It would have been fertile ground for germinating the ugly civil war that was to come.

    Yet it is never as simply as what an expat community make out as I was to discover when I travelled through there. The Greek Macedonians are more closely related to Bulgarians than FYROMacedonia (or whatever they r now called) and has lots of Greek influences from food to religion to language and many many others.

    And… many there are more than happy to be associated with Greece rather than FYROM. There is a rather large mountain range to the north creating a more southerly focus


  17. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 10:05 am

    ”I remember talking to AGL engineers and they say the more the renewables expand the more robust the system becomes, basically because the deficit of wind at times or sunlight in particular areas are compensated for by sun/wind in other areas.”

    Exactly. Saying that the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow is a red herring, usually cited by those opposed to renewable power.

    And marks them as a cultural worrier playing the Liberal/Green wedge, not a serious player.

  18. nath @ #59 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 9:52 am

    Zerlosays:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 9:50 am
    PeeBee

    I wouldn’t surprise me if the lockdown has made people go insane.
    _____________
    6 months without yum cha. OF course it has.

    Why don’t you take a few hours to learn how to make it yourself?

    I taught myself how to make Char Siu Pork, and if I don’t say so myself, the results are better than at almost any restaurant I have been to and ate it at. Great also in steamed pork buns. You can even buy ready made Wanton pastry. Learn a new skill. Easy as!

    …Or you could turn your lack of same in your life into a complaint.

  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 9:49 am
    NonSequitur @ #52 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 9:43 am

    The virus is well adapted to being spread by humans. Only by changing our behaviour can spread be prevented. Behavioural change can be achieved by the use of normative examples and by involuntary copying. But likewise, people will also involuntarily copy self-defeating behaviours just as readily as they will adopt useful behaviours. So it’s very important that behaviours that prevent spread be practiced publicly and reinforced by repetition. Politicised contradiction of positive behaviours will certainly undermine reinforcement and the adoption of preventative behaviours.

    Considering the role of copying in behavioural development, I think the critics of Andrews carry a heavy responsibility for propagating the virus. They have licensed dysfunctional, anti-social, clinically dangerous behaviours.

    The self-indulgent, self-gratifying big noting exaggerations of the critics is a serious factor. They should shut up.

    The virus comes in many forms – Covid19, neo-liberalism, climate change denial…

    The contra-copying modelling is evident wherever we look. But it is obviously not correct to say that covid and climate change are the same when they are not the same.

    Covid is caused by a virus. Climate change has a different set of causes. Their solutions are different. Same/same remarks really trivialise both issues.

  20. Exactly. Saying that the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow is a red herring, usually cited by those opposed to renewable power.

    And marks them as a cultural worrier playing the Liberal/Green wedge, not a serious player.

    Yeah, it’s what they’re good at, Reductio Ad Absurdem. Problem is, too many people take it as fact.

  21. Re Peebee @9:52.
    ” I think Buce will be happy as it solves all his concerns while reducing emissions.”

    Unlikely, as his actual agenda is to support the continued use of coal.

  22. Morning all. Thanks for the excellent roundup as always BK.

    Cat
    “ Australia. Belgium. Hong Kong. Israel. Spain. Vietnam…. Places around the world that fought back novel coronavirus outbreaks in the spring are reporting record surges in new cases. In the United States, Arizona, Florida and Texas, along with other states, have become epicenters, whereas New York City bore the brunt in March and April.”

    It seems pretty clear that further outbreaks can easily happen with Covid and will continue to occur until there is a vaccine widely distributed. That will take two years best case (1 year to develop it, 1 year to fully apply it). So every state must retain social distancing and substantial testing and tracing resources in the mean time. Plus isolation for travelers.

    There is no “business as usual” in the mean time. Business has to deal with that, and support for financially vulnerable human beings has to continue as well. It might have been different if we had achieved elimination, but Professor Scomo never set us on that course.

  23. Taylormade says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 10:05 am
    NonSequitur
    The critics you complain about were saying exactly the same thing as you in the leadup to the BLM protests.

    Whats the difference now ?

    I think modelling/copying constitute easily demonstrated methods of behavioural learning. I think politicising the pandemic has been a disaster because of the normative effects it has on behavioural learning. I think the political critics are essentially agents of spread.

    I think it’s a terrible thing that BLM has been used to further promote/justify/propagate politicisation of the pandemic. I think the BLM rallies have been a gift to the pro-spread voices.

    I think that by further invoking BLM you are contributing to viral spread. I think you are an agent of the pandemic. I think you should shut up.

  24. The Virus and Climate Change Global Heating are very different but what they have in common is that they require concerted action on the part of Governments, cooperation across Governments and instituations and changes to the way we do things. Neither can be fixed by “free markets”, deregulation, privatisation or the sort of buccaneering capitalism that fans of Thatcher and Reagan want to promote. Indeed, these exacerbate both situations.

    Another situation that has many commonalities with both is War.

  25. ”Covid numbers in Victoria for today looking around mid to high 300 figure”

    And now that seems like a good number. It’s terrible of course, but not as terrible as the last few.

  26. DHS and US Security Agencies are more concerned about Journalists reporting:

    Benjamin Wittes
    @benjaminwittes
    Level 1:
    Today I obtained the three DHS I&A intelligence reports on which @shaneharris
    reported yesterday–two concerning my Twitter activity and one concerning that of @ByMikeBaker
    of the New York Times. I am deeply grateful to all of those who have reached out with words of support.

  27. NonSequitur says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 10:18 am
    Taylormade says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 10:05 am
    NonSequitur
    The critics you complain about were saying exactly the same thing as you in the leadup to the BLM protests.

    Whats the difference now ?

    I think modelling/copying constitute easily demonstrated methods of behavioural learning. I think politicising the pandemic has been a disaster because of the normative effects it has on behavioural learning. I think the political critics are essentially agents of spread.

    I think it’s a terrible thing that BLM has been used to further promote/justify/propagate politicisation of the pandemic. I think the BLM rallies have been a gift to the pro-spread voices.

    I think that by further invoking BLM you are contributing to viral spread. I think you are an agent of the pandemic. I think you should shut up.

    Further than this, on reflection, I think you’re using racist sensibility to advance the pandemic. I think you’re actually a disgrace.

  28. NonSequitur says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 10:10 am
    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 9:49 am
    NonSequitur @ #52 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 9:43 am

    The virus is well adapted to being spread by humans. Only by changing our behaviour can spread be prevented. Behavioural change can be achieved by the use of normative examples and by involuntary copying. But likewise, people will also involuntarily copy self-defeating behaviours just as readily as they will adopt useful behaviours. So it’s very important that behaviours that prevent spread be practiced publicly and reinforced by repetition. Politicised contradiction of positive behaviours will certainly undermine reinforcement and the adoption of preventative behaviours.

    Considering the role of copying in behavioural development, I think the critics of Andrews carry a heavy responsibility for propagating the virus. They have licensed dysfunctional, anti-social, clinically dangerous behaviours.

    The self-indulgent, self-gratifying big noting exaggerations of the critics is a serious factor. They should shut up.

    The virus comes in many forms – Covid19, neo-liberalism, climate change denial…

    The contra-copying modelling is evident wherever we look. But it is obviously not correct to say that covid and climate change are the same when they are not the same.

    Covid is caused by a virus. Climate change has a different set of causes. Their solutions are different. Same/same remarks really trivialise both issues.

    On further reflection, I would add that the trivialisation of issues is the sine qua non of Rexology. It is the very purpose of Rexology.

  29. Victoria

    Xanthippe (works in public health) commented that we should probably take a more week-to-week and less “Day-to-day” view of the Victorian case numbers. They will vary up and down by randomness of the virus spread, and constraints on testing resources. So every Tuesday following a weekend will often be a bad day.

    When you consider the lag of up to two weeks in Covid transmission and testing, the results wee are seeing now represent the problem Melbourne had two weeks ago. So we do not yet know if the measures Andrews announced are working. We need to be patient. People failing to obey instructions and continuing to go to work has not helped, and needs to be stopped. But it is possible that the rate of spread has already slowed, and we have not yet got the testing to prove that. Melbourne will be locked down longer than six weeks, that is certain though. It will be at least ten weeks.

  30. C@t it’s probably more the social aspect to having a large family yum cha outing. Also the fact you don’t have to do anything but arrive is also special. And the tea, always the perfect temperature!

  31. Steve777 @ #66 Saturday, August 1st, 2020 – 10:05 am

    ”I remember talking to AGL engineers and they say the more the renewables expand the more robust the system becomes, basically because the deficit of wind at times or sunlight in particular areas are compensated for by sun/wind in other areas.”

    Exactly. Saying that the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow is a red herring, usually cited by those opposed to renewable power.

    Not entirely. There have been various studies that show just how widely geographically distributed your wind power would have to be (and how much overcapacity you would need) to guarantee to run from sun and wind alone. The figures are eye-watering, and we don’t (currently) have anything like the transmission network that would be required to support it.

    The answer, of course, is to “firm” the renewables, partly with Hydro (where possible) and partly with gas. Which is why I have always been in favour of both gas (only conventional gas, and only as a transition fuel) and also Snowy 2.0. Snowy 2.0 will go a long way to solving this problem, at least in South-East Australia.

  32. NonSequitur

    Actually both issues are caused by humans because :

    1. Pollution is caused by Humans burning the planet up.
    2. Climate Changed is caused by Humans through different activities (cutting trees e.g., animal diversity etc ).
    3. If the virus is man made, then humans are the fault, however, if the virus is not man made, but the spread of the virus is helped by humans lack of giving a shit.

    And so on and so on.

    In the end it’s the fault of the majority of species on this planet.

  33. … #dimtim is deleting his dictaor Dan tweets.

    There’s change in the air. The viciousness of the attacks on Andrews is starting to backfire (not that it was all that effective in the first place).

    There’s been a deliberate and palpably dishonest attempt out of the NineFax and Murdoch organizations to destabilize the Andrew’s government politically. “Dishonest” because he’s either doing too much or too little, but never the right thing.

    It’s obviously taken a toll on Andrews. The cruelty of the attacks must hurt personally. The man looks haunted at times. Nevertheless he fronts up every day and cops blame where it’s due. Rejects it when it’s not.

    His best allies have been deadheads like the Coronettes and the Karens, along with their fellow partiers, boozers and crazies like “world famous MMA fighter” Vic Grujik (“Vic Who?” asked my grandson, who’s going through an MMA stage at present). Combined, their dreadful antics have united the public in disgust. All Andrews then had to do was look “disappointed”, with that “sad puppy” face he does so well.

    There will always be doubters and fair weather friends in politics. Astronomical popularity levels can’t survive forever. Grumbles will grumble. The Naths and other bots of this world will take their cues from the Bolts and the Alan Joneses.

    But doubt and lost paint shouldn’t be confused with insanity: the insanity of urging Governors to sack Premiers and install Michael O’Brien types in their place (or, as an an alternative , a suitable Labor rat). They don’t want the job. They just want to troll and snipe, heckle like the brave little hyenas they are… from afar.

    Morrison is predictably beginning to come apart at the seams. His natural tendencies towards disloyalty, dismissiveness, secrecy, control freakery, playing one rival off against another and outright hubris are beginning to re-emerge. At times I think he actually believes that jolly bonhommie, that “Father Of The Nation” act he puts on is actually an attractive look.

    But his vacuuity always reasserts. His empty answers to serious questions, usually delivered with a condescending smirk on his face, can only defer the inevitable day when he exasperates his party colleagues, and has to be disposed of yet again. If you think he’s annoying on TV – a device that can be switched off – imagine what it must be like to be locked in a room with him trying to achieve an actual workable outcome!

    As the virus strengthens its grip and the public realises there is no miracle around the corner, and sees its savings and its jobs gone without compensation, the polls will reset to normal. What goes up must come down. After that only the soundness of the foundations counts for anything.

  34. Socrates

    And as i have previously mentioned in past few days, this time around there is more non compliance. In part due to finances for workers but also a growing cult about this pandemic. Even supposed rational people are buying into it.

    My daughters follow several community pages in different parts of Melbourne to keep abreast of what is happening in areas where they work have friends etc.

    The worst aspect of this pandemic has been the sheer volume of once considered normal people going far down the rabbit hole.

    These are not teenagers but people in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s and over.

    I am mortified to be quite honest

  35. Steve
    “I remember talking to AGL engineers and they say the more the renewables expand the more robust the system becomes, basically because the deficit of wind at times or sunlight in particular areas are compensated for by sun/wind in other areas.”

    I attended a lecture at Adelaide Uni where an expert in renewable power engineering explained exactly that ten year ago! 🙁 It has been understood by those who know for some time. That was also around when new wind turbine power became cheaper than new coal power. The big battery accelerated the cost effectiveness of new renewable power even further. New wind power plus big battery is now cheaper than existing (old) coal power. There is no technical or economic excuse for building new coal or gas power generation. Grid changes are required, but that was always the case, and they are comparatively cheap.

    Everything since Gillard left office has been a giant stall by the coal and gas industries, enabled by some giant lies.

  36. SMH blog

    Sounds like Victoria will report under 400 new cases today
    We are still awaiting the official update from the Victorian Government but we are hearing word that there are under 400 new cases today.

    That will be a relief should it prove correct.

    Premier Daniel Andrews and Police Minister Lisa Neville are scheduled to give a COVID-19 update at 11.30am. We hope to bring a live stream to you of the presser.

  37. Jack Waterford with some sensible advice for Albo …

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6858118/the-courage-deficit-will-albanese-die-wondering

    Labor’s present sotto voce criticisms are not being heard by the public – scarcely even by that part of the political class consumed by the day-to-day exchanges. An effective opposition has to be heard. It ought to have an alternative approach – one which, one might hope, was guided by its philosophical fundamentals. Such criticisms might be respectful but firm. They might be scathing or divisive. But they ought to let the public knows where Labor stands at the most critical moments since the end of World War II.

    Morrison has never been so vulnerable to fundamental attack. It is about time the Albanese army began probing his defences.

    Let’s hope someone in Labor is listening.

  38. Victoria

    Yes I agree with you on the psychological issues with Covid. Rationality in normal times is a separate thing. Sanity is not a black/white question. There is a spectrum of susceptibility, with some people likely to exhibit mental illnesses when under stress, some all the time, and some not. Right now a lot of people are under financial and personal health stress.

    Also, as we have all discussed, the creation of a foreign born underclass of insecure low skilled workers who need to work and get no assistance, is a large part of the problem. This has to be addressed nationally. Have a good day all.

  39. BB

    Morrison and his cronies at every opportunity were telling Australians about the snap back etc.
    Of course this is a furphy

    It was very easy to find a scapegoat. Particularly as he was a Labor leader.

    Karma always comes calling eventually

  40. I reckon this could be a scam by Rupert and his kids. Get James to be the ‘leftie’ – with a media presence to cater to that demographic, whilst Lachlan continues the true family disposition. And click bait all round, as ‘both sides’ get an airing..

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