It is apparently the case that Essential Research will, at long last, be including voting intention when it publishes its next survey next week. I also gather that it’s back to a fortnightly publication schedule after going to weekly for the first few months of the coronavirus crisis.
Also:
• My Newspoll post on Sunday night noted that the sample was an unusually high 1850, compared with the more normal 1500 to 1600. It turns out that this was done to juice up the New South Wales and Victorian sub-samples to 601 and 605 respectively, allowing The Australian to run a follow-up yesterday on the respective state governments’ handling of coronavirus. This predictably found a decline in Daniel Andrews’ numbers, though they remain high in absolute terms, with his approval down ten since a June 24-28 poll to 57%, and disapproval up the same amount to 37%. However, Gladys Berejiklian was also down four on approval to 64% and up four on disapproval to 30%, suggesting part of Andrews’ fall was purely gravitational. Andrews is still rated as having handled the virus well by 61% and poorly by 36%, compared with 72% and 25% from June 24-28 and 85% and 11% from April 21-26. However, the decline has been concentrated in the “very well” response, which has progressed from 51% to 32% to 27%. Berejiklian is at 68% for well (down eleven) and 26% for poorly (up ten). Scott Morrison is now doing better than both, at 72% well (down seven) and 24% poorly (up six) in New South Wales and 77% well (down four) and 20% poorly (up three) in Victoria. Results at national level found 76% saying they were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, up four from May 13-16, compared with 20% saying they were more concerned about moving too slowly, down four. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday.
• An academic survey conducted by the Democracy 2025 project, encompassing the United States, United Kingdom and Italy as well as Australia, records a dramatic increase in trust in the federal government (54%, compared with 29% in last year’s post-election Australian Election Study survey) and the public service (up from 38% to 54%), with smaller improvements recorded for the media (television up seven to 39%, newspapers up eight to 37% and radio up three to 41%). The survey was conducted from a sample of 1059 in May and June – small-sample state breakdowns provide another increment of evidence that Western Australia’s government is doing best of all out of the crisis.
• The Victorian Liberals have been spruiking internal robo-polling, apparently commissioned by Senator James Patterson, showing 65% to 70% disapproval of state government agreements with China as part of the latter’s “Belt and Road” initiative, based on a sample of 7000 respondents across seven marginal Labor-held seats.
• South Australian Attorney-General Vickie Chapman has confirmed the government will proceed with an attempt to introduce optional preferential voting in the state. Labor and the Greens are opposed, which will leave the fate of the proposal in the hands of upper house cross-benchers elected under the Nick Xenophon banner. A blog post by Antony Green tackles the issue with characteristic thoroughness. I gather they have thought better of clamping down on the dissemination of how-to-vote cards at polling booths, contrary to earlier reports.
laughtong says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:14 am
Is it absolutely life critical that everyone is able to receive the information in a COVID19 Presser live? They can’t wait for a different format an hour or so later?
S777 says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:19 am
We have friends and relatives who we tell times half an hour early and they still turn up late.
If you aren’t there 5 minutes before then you are late.
Bucephalus @ #203 Wednesday, July 22nd, 2020 – 11:23 am
Can’t say I blame them!
porotisays:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:14 am
Re Victoria. Is the WuFlu spreading geographically or is it remaining concentrated in the known ‘hot spots” ?
__________________
It’s all over Melbourne but most heavily spread out all over the west and northern suburbs. There are thousands, probably tens of thousands with it by now. I suspect that alot of the people getting tested are doing it every week. So largely the same people doing it constantly. Millions would not be getting tested at all. It’s a disaster.
It’s obvious from this punctuality discussion that some here wouldn’t survive in certain parts of Asia! 🙂
Spray @ #204 Wednesday, July 22nd, 2020 – 9:25 am
The surprising thing is that they turn up at all. 🙂
A criminal syndicate recruited banking and finance experts to help it scam more than $17 million from the Australian Tax Office, federal police will allege.
Construction identity George Alex, 49, is accused of leading the syndicate and allegedly recruited finance industry specialists to set up the sophisticated money-laundering operation.
Commander Kirsty Schofield from the Australian Federal Police (AFP) said it was a complex, multinational operation.
“This syndicate specifically included a mix of financial industry experts to provide the level of expertise required to commit the fraud and keep it ongoing,” she said.
“We will allege that these people were part of the syndicate and they have been charged.”
AFP officers arrested 12 people yesterday during coordinated raids on 10 properties across Sydney, the Gold Coast and the ACT.
Mr Alex has been charged with conspiring with the intention of dishonestly causing a loss to the Commonwealth and conspiring to deal with the proceeds of crime.
Nine other men are facing similar charges.
Two women, aged 50 and 30, have been charged with recklessly dealing with the proceeds of crime and face a maximum of 12 years in prison if found guilty.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-22/experts-brought-in-over-$17-million-tax-scam-police-allege/12479534
..or Fiji
Oh the Ad Hominem attacks are just so cutting.
13 11 14
Paul Bongiorno
@PaulBongiorno
·
11h
Nothing is certain in politics but @ScottMorrisonMP performed strongly on @abc730 ..His political opponents underestimate him at their risk.
I agree with Bongiorno here. Morrison is the best political leader the Libs have had since Howard. His recovery from the bushfires debacle has been stunning. Like Howard, he has used a crisis (in Howard’s case, Port Arthur) to grow his stature. He is seen to have managed the first wave of COVID very well. Now we are in a second phase, he is letting Andrews plough through his own political capital. Very clever politics.
With Labor’s vote continuing to loll in the mid 30s, it is very difficult to see them getting enough PVs to consistently be a chance of winning government. I find it very depressing.
Tell me Barney, outside of unforeseeable delays (Iliostomy Bag leak for example), exactly why is the late people’s time so much more valuable than all of those waiting for them?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #166 Wednesday, July 22nd, 2020 – 10:38 am
That’s one way of putting it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8r-tXRLazs
You lost me. A caffeinated beverage can be as important a meeting preparation as warming up your thumbs.
Or the NT. (Not Today, Not Tomorrow; Not Tuesday, Not Thursday…)
Oh no!!!!!!!!
If you go to the home page of the Guardian right now, in their photo slideshow there’s one of Daniel Andrews walking in a public space by himself …
wearing a mask.
https://www.theguardian.com/au
Jaeger says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:37 am
You forgot Next Truck, Next Time.
When I was in the NT there were only two Specialist Doctors- Doctor QANTAS and Doctor Ansett
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:41 am
Oh no!!!!!!!!
If you go to the home page of the Guardian right now, in their photo slideshow there’s one of Daniel Andrews walking in a public space by himself …
wearing a mask.
https://www.theguardian.com/au
I don’t particularly care what he does in private.
Has anyone posted Stephen Colbert’s latest Trump piss-take using the maths problem from Good Will Hunting? I laughed.
Yesterdays Numbers (Active Cases)
Wyndham 370
Hume 308
Brimbank 289
Melbourne 272
Moonee Valley 212
Moreland 191
Whittlesea 166
Melton 135
Banyule 130
Yarra 119
Casey 103
Maribynong 95
Darebin 88
Hobsons Bay 65
Whitehorse 48
The data is from here:
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiODBmMmE3NWQtZWNlNC00OWRkLTk1NjYtMjM2YTY1MjI2NzdjIiwidCI6ImMwZTA2MDFmLTBmYWMtNDQ5Yy05Yzg4LWExMDRjNGViOWYyOCJ9
Apparently 484 new cases in Vic, and 251 in nursing homes.
Bucephalus @ #212 Wednesday, July 22nd, 2020 – 9:33 am
Maybe they stopped and smelt the roses.
Why is your time more important than theirs?
Why do we have to be such prisoners to the clock?
The World still goes on!
Sensationalist headline on Sydney Morning Herald site just now:
“484 cases: Victoria recorded its highest daily coronavirus toll since pandemic began.”
Surely “infection rate” would be a far more appropriate word than “toll.”
Bucephalus @ #218 Wednesday, July 22nd, 2020 – 9:43 am
But he’s not, he’s in a public space, seemingly the equivalent to your middle of the footy ground.
“251 in nursing homes” – since the pandemic began.
Good point
Osman Faruqi
@oz_f
·
2h
The NSW position is pretty nonsensical. They don’t want to lockdown for the economy, very happy to have thousands in stadiums, but protests are banned.
Quote Tweet
News Breakfast
@BreakfastNews
· 2h
NSW Premier @GladysB says she cannot allow the planned Black Lives Matter march to go ahead in Sydney next Tuesday.
“It’s just not sensible at this time to expose yourself and others to the spread of the virus.”
sprocket_
That 251 is a shocker. There is going to be a heck of a death toll from it 🙁
I actually rate Dan Andrews highly on his leadership because once everyone has had it we can get back to behaving rationally again.
Sweden:
Daily New Cases 7-day moving average = 262
Daily New Deaths 7-day moving average = 3
Doing better than Victoria.
[Osman Faruqi
@oz_f
·
2h
The NSW position is pretty nonsensical. They don’t want to lockdown for the economy, very happy to have thousands in stadiums, but protests are banned.
Osman Faruqi can swear an affidavit and give it to the organisers to put before the court or he can tweet.
Jaeger
Phew ! For a moment there I thought that numbers was part of today’s tally.
These PM&C bureaucrats are very well trained. They just seem to agree with Eric Abetz as he leads them through their testimony.
I think the ALP should be asking for resignations form PM&C and the government. Yet! Absent Albo’s gotta take all his pay home and not do much for it.
Poroti, the number in nursing homes aside, this is a complete disaster. I’m sure the various inquiries will find mistakes made ‘on the day’, but the biggest mistake Australia has made is accepting the casualisation and de-unionisation of the workforce.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:46 am
“Why is your time more important than theirs?”
My time isn’t more important than anyone else’s- that’s why I show them the respect when we are sharing our time not to waste theirs.
I take the time to “smell the roses” but not on other people’s time.
Bucephalus
Well put your belief into action and do your bit by encouraging your older rellies to go out and get infected. After all the quicker they get it the quicker “we can get back to behaving rationally again”.
484 – What a fucking mass [WFM]
Lynchpin says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:30 am
I agree with Bongiorno here. Morrison is the best political leader the Libs have had since Howard. His recovery from the bushfires debacle has been stunning. Like Howard, he has used a crisis (in Howard’s case, Port Arthur) to grow his stature.
—
Morrison will lose his seat like Howard ?
Howards so called popularity did not last too long after Port Arthur , and as soon as Howards mean spirited policies were in the public minds it was over for Howard and his cronies , Morrison is following the same path with the foreign media own and controlled libs/nats policies
Don’t be late for anything in Japan. There is an obsession with punctuality and not only with timekeeping on the railways. Our daughter spent a year at university in Japan and rapidly learnt that being late for class was not the done thing.
meher baba says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:48 am
“Sensationalist headline on Sydney Morning Herald site just now:
“484 cases: Victoria recorded its highest daily coronavirus toll since pandemic began.”
Surely “infection rate” would be a far more appropriate word than “toll.””
Completely agree given it’s basically the Frail Flu. The vast majority will come through it fine.
Simon “You lost me. A caffeinated beverage can be as important a meeting preparation as warming up your thumbs.”
Fair enough – so they allow enough time to get the coffee before the meeting. Get any earlier train or leave home 10 minutes earlier.
“Howards so called popularity did not last too long after Port Arthur , and as soon as Howards mean spirited policies were in the public minds it was over for Howard and his cronies , Morrison is following the same path with the foreign media own and controlled libs/nats policies”
But he still kept being re-elected.
Was 2016 a high point for Labor, like 1998? Labor needs to take measures now to make that sure it isn’t, but that’s what it looks like at the moment.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:58 am
“Poroti, the number in nursing homes aside, this is a complete disaster. I’m sure the various inquiries will find mistakes made ‘on the day’, but the biggest mistake Australia has made is accepting the casualisation and de-unionisation of the workforce.”
There has been no significant increase in casual work in at least two if not three decades.
The Unions caused the de-unionisation by not giving value to their members, allowing massive corruption (HSU, CFMEU) and not adapting to changes in society.
I can’t see that you have made a direct link to standards of care in the Aged Care Sector but maybe the Royal Commission will.
Scott says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:59 am
“Morrison will lose his seat like Howard ?”
After 11 years as PM – I could live with that.
Bucephalus says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 11:52 am
I actually rate Dan Andrews highly on his leadership because once everyone has had it we can get back to behaving rationally again.
Sweden:
Daily New Cases 7-day moving average = 262
Daily New Deaths 7-day moving average = 3
Doing better than Victoria.
Sweden 5646 DEATHS in total
https://www.coronatracker.com/country/sweden/
15 jul 27
16 jul 21
17 jul 26
18 jul 0
19 jul 0
20 jui 2o
21 jul 7
22 jul 0
= 101 deaths
101/7 = 14 moving average 21 jul
16 jul 21
17 jul 26
18 jul 0
19 jul 0
20 jui 2o
21 jul 7
22 jul 0
= 74 deaths 74/7 equals 10 as moving average 22 jul
You really are a twit.
Yep. A political animal with smarts and can talk underwater. He knows his stuff (mostly) and knows how to babble about what he knows without having to answer the hard questions he occasionally gets. Howard is an excellent comparison although I woiuld argue Howard probably had more empathy and some respect for norms. Morrison has a nastier streak.
Not really. Plenty of people thought he was great during the bushfires. RW radio, TV, papers gushed over him endlessly – assuring their listeners/readers that any criticism was just raving lefties and greenies. Those that did question his ability to lead the nation were quickly brought back under the wing by not only the RW media but the rest as well with ‘we are in a crises, gather round the leader’ stuff. Which, well, is probably fair enough. Shame that leader is a knob.
Morrison has done OK. The ‘early mark’ BS, the urge to have footy crowds, the snide jabs at states trying to do the right thing with restrictions and the hypocrisy of postponing parliament aside.
BiTB @11:19.
Surely an investigation would be looking for the facts of the matter and not making their own assumptions.
That assumes that they want the facts found.
Received mail from AEC requesting confirmation on household voting eligibility. Is Morrison planning an early election?
Is a “construction identity” like a “racing identity”?
Bucephalus says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 12:11 pm
After 11 years as PM – I could live with that.
————-
Won’t happen
Buce
“There has been no significant increase in casual work in at least two if not three decades.
The Unions caused the de-unionisation by not giving value to their members, allowing massive corruption (HSU, CFMEU) and not adapting to changes in society.”
So I guess you have missed the Gig economy and zero hours contract revolution? Most people know this was driven by unscrupulous employers wanting to maximise profits and minimise worker conditions.
And here we are, with a pandemic being spread by the very same casualised workforce.
Frednk – I have twice posted a response with the website reference I use but it is not showing up:
Search Sweden New Daily Deaths Worldometers
S777 says:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 12:07 pm
“Howards so called popularity did not last too long after Port Arthur , and as soon as Howards mean spirited policies were in the public minds it was over for Howard and his cronies , Morrison is following the same path with the foreign media own and controlled libs/nats policies”
But he still kept being re-elected.
————
Lol sorry , don’t know why but i got port arthur mixed up with the illegal iraq war
Where Howard popularity was short lived