Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

After a long period of stasis, Newspoll credits the Coalition with its biggest lead since the first post-election poll a year ago.

After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

  1. Hard to see Canberra public servants voting Coalition. They know that the Liberals hate them, that they want to abolish, outsource or privatise whatever job they do.

  2. Seat-belts, we had the dickheads claiming they could kill you because you couldn’t get out of the car.

    Having said that in four days we have gone from getting looks for wearing, to dirty looks for not wearing and we are one suburb out of the zone that has to wear them.

    Alan Jones is just a serious annoyance. A little worse than the yappers.

    Adam Bandt can’t help himself but I have forgiven him for yesterdays early Q and A effort; his put down of Sarah Henderson was a good watch. Michael O’Brien has no redeeming quality.

  3. Just checked the 2pp for Wamberal booth in 2019 election.
    59-41 to Libs.

    Hardly a lefties suburb.

    The other side of the bridge is Robertson which is almost becoming safe Liberal if 2019 is any guide.

  4. Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein
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    abc.net.au

  5. Sky News Australia
    @SkyNewsAust

    Sky News host @AlanJones says it is high time to regain the country’s freedoms, breathe easily, and condemn the alarmists and their coronavirus fear mongering.

    Breathe in ‘easily’ potentially deadly germs!?!

    What a loudmouthed dimwit.


  6. Victoria says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 10:31 pm

    Frednk

    What was Adam Bandts put down?

    He pointed out the Liberals had pushed for opening up and had started the Chairman Dan crap. The icing, he managed to get a dig in over their last great election strategy, black gangs.

    The best line, we need more Jacinda Ardern and less TRUMP.

    It was a very nice effort.

  7. BOB LYNCH @ #1203 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 10:32 pm

    Just checked the 2pp for Wamberal booth in 2019 election.
    59-41 to Libs.

    Hardly a lefties suburb.

    The other side of the bridge is Robertson which is almost becoming safe Liberal if 2019 is any guide.

    Wamberal has ever been thus. Wankers who have pretensions of living in Malibu grandeur.

    Robertson just needs the right Labor candidate. The one we had was, literally, a Doctor’s Wife. No one could relate to her and she couldn’t relate to the electorate. It was no wonder we went backwards in 2019.

  8. “Maude Lynne says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 10:24 pm
    filr
    and in 1996 Howard tore the Canberra Bureaucracy house down”

    It seems to have made little difference after 25 years:

    “Canberra has a unique employment market – here you’ll find the best educated workforce and the highest per capita income in Australia. Our economy is sophisticated and knowledge based, orientated towards service delivery and public administration. The Commonwealth Government is our largest employer and also our biggest customer.” Posted 2017

    https://canberra.com.au/key-act-industries/

    $1542 – Melbourne median weekly household income
    $2087 – Canberra median weekly household income

    https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/

  9. “frednk says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 10:37 pm

    Victoria says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 10:31 pm

    Frednk

    What was Adam Bandts put down?

    The best line, we need more Jacinda Ardern and less TRUMP.”

    She certainly didn’t muck around when it came to quarantine:

    “New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has assigned a top military leader to oversee the nation’s quarantine measures after what she described as an “unacceptable failure” by health officials.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-17/jacinda-ardern-coronavirus-new-zealand-travellers-britain/12364838

  10. Some security guards were hired to work at Melbourne’s COVID-19 quarantine hotels through WhatsApp messages, in a process so murky that some didn’t even know who they were actually working for.

    Shayla Shakshi was one of the guards who received a WhatsApp message offering her work as a quarantine security guard in a Melbourne hotel. “I just got told that you need to be here at a certain time and you’re going to dress in a certain way and this is your pay rate. That’s it.”

    Ms Shakshi also claimed there were no infection-control protocols at the Stamford Plaza when she worked there in May.

    “We didn’t get any training when I got there,” she said.

    “They just didn’t tell us what training we had to do, we just had to put a mask on, put gloves on, and that’s it.

    “They had no training of how to use PPE (personal protective equipment), how to sanitise hands, nothing. No training at all.”

    “Then some levels didn’t have sanitisers, so it was really tricky.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/quarantine-hotel-security-guards-recruited-by-whatsapp-message/12476574

  11. Meanwhile why did Morrison appoint someone on the Crown Board to oversee the National review into hotel quarantine………….

    If there’s one question all Australians want answered, it’s how our hotel quarantine program failed so badly that it allowed the coronavirus back into the community, sending Melbourne into another lockdown and spreading fear to the rest of the country.

    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews wasted no time announcing an inquiry into the botched Victorian scheme earlier this month. And on Friday, Scott Morrison launched a nationwide review of all hotel quarantine arrangements, led by the former health department secretary Jane Halton.

    Halton seems like an obvious choice to lead the nationwide inquiry — an experienced bureaucrat and public servant who was already on the government’s National COVID-19 Coordination Commission and has weathered such storms as the children overboard scandal when she was head of John Howard’s people smuggling task force.

    She is also the chair of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a group leading the global race to find and distribute a COVID-19 vaccine.

    But among Halton’s many hats is a glaring, potential conflict of interest.

    Halton sits on the board of Crown Resorts, which owns several hotels being used in quarantine schemes,

  12. A ”bureaucrat” is someone who works in an office who’s job / function / position is held in disdain by the person calling them a bureaucrat. Simples (if a bit circular).

  13. “Maude Lynne says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 11:13 pm
    filr
    I guess it depends on your definition of ‘bureaucrat’.
    Generally I’d say they’re Clerical and Administrative workers. That group constitute just 19% of those employed.
    The biggest single group is the Professionals, at 29.3%”

    Thanks for the figures, and yes to a degree it depends on definitions, and also I think we were talking about slightly different things. I guess I was trying to make the point about the “values” distance between upper middle professionals (loosely “inner city” types, but including those in Canberra) and lower middle/working classes in the suburbs.

    Incidentally I’ve lived in the inner city practically all my life, and way back worked 10 years in the federal public service (including 10 months in Canberra).

  14. From the Crikey article linked by Victoria:

    “Conflict of Interest: Crown is part of Australia’s hotel quarantine story, so why is a board member running the hotel inquiry?“

    Obviously a rhetorical question.

  15. If that median was for the electorate of Melbourne then the reason why it seemed to be some distance behind Canberra is because Melbourne has a mixture of wealthy areas that wouldn’t be out of place in Higgins or Kooyong while it also has areas of disadvantage.

  16. “Mexicanbeemer says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 11:27 pm
    If that median was for the electorate of Melbourne then part of the reason why it seemed to be some distance behind Canberra is because Melbourne has a mixture of wealthy areas that wouldn’t be out of place in Higgins or Kooyong yet it also has areas of disadvantage.”

    I’m pretty sure that the median refers to the entire metro area of Melbourne, but your point is still true. My point is trying to set out that places with “progressive values” like Canberra (reflecting its voting patterns) are no less considering their hip pocket than poorer areas…

  17. Re Ged,
    I’m suprised that Labor isn’t running left on the environment. Its the biggest issue that we face. The economic devastation will be greater than this pandemic and it’s going to happen to our kids.
    I’d love to vote for a labor party that loved the environment as much as me.
    In fact I’d love to vote for the greens that loved the environment, but there don’t seem to be too many of those around anymore.
    Greens people like Adam Bandt are all about ‘issues’ but he’s not the sort of guy you’d see walk the Western Arthur range. He just doesn’t seem authentic green, and neither did RDN and that’s probably why the greens are stuck at 10%.

  18. Filr
    No doubt more financially secure people do think about their hip pocket but their relationship with money is different as in they are less worried about the day to day bills and more about lifestyle experiences and investment opportunities. Job security matters to most people and there are many now experiencing their first taste of economic loss.

  19. Bucephalus says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 7:58 pm
    The fact that both major parties at State and Federal level have created Local Planning laws that have led to massive land value increases meaning a family requires both parents to work in order to pay rent or a mortgage is Australia’s greatest political failing.

    Land prices are inversely related to the real rate of interest. We’ve had a very long boom in land values because interest rates have been falling. If real interest rates start to rise again then land prices will decline.

    We also subsidise losses in real estate, to the considerable detriment of new home buyers and renters. These subsidies serve as discounts on the interest rate and inflate land prices.

    Planning laws are not responsible for the price of land. This is most obvious in locations that are well-established, where planning laws on development have little effect other than to increase the supply of (subdivided) lots. The increase in supply has the effect of reducing upward pressure on prices.

    In the postwar era policy was directed at keeping house prices low. This was abandoned with the deregulation of the banking sector.

  20. Quasar says:
    Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 2:01 am

    How crazy is it to insist on applying for 4 jobs a week during a pandemic?
    ———————————-
    I thought it was 4 per month but depending on the industry it could be possible because there are jobs available which is how the 13 applications per job opening came about. A job seeker only needs to phone four recruiters and ask about jobs in that persons field to comply.

  21. Victoria
    “And on Friday, Scott Morrison launched a nationwide review of all hotel quarantine arrangements, led by the former health department secretary Jane Halton.

    Halton seems like an obvious choice to lead the nationwide inquiry — an experienced bureaucrat and public servant who was already on the government’s National COVID-19 Coordination Commission and has weathered such storms as the children overboard scandal when she was head of John Howard’s people smuggling task force.”

    Putting Jane Halton, of “children overboard” fame or infamy in charge of the inquiry says it all. No training or PPE for quarantine guards? Will we ever find out who is responsible for that? I am not confident.

    This time it will be bio-security overboard.

  22. The corrupt foreign media , going into overdrive propaganda attack on Labor this week

    Because the corrupt foreign media own and controlled lib/nats are going to show their incompetence on Thursday , Australia is in deep recession.

  23. ‘Roll out the barrel!
    Roll out the barrel of pork!’

    More than $1 billion will be needed to help community sporting clubs across Australia recover from the destructive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, a national campaign has revealed.

    The Australian Sports Foundation has released the results of a five-week survey aimed at quantifying the damage caused by the shutdown of sporting activity, with nearly a quarter of the country’s 70,000 community clubs at risk of closure if they do not receive funding support within the next six months.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/national-crisis-more-than-1-billion-needed-to-save-community-sport-clubs-20200721-p55e4u.html

  24. Cat

    If they give each one of those clubs $13,000 each it will be a jobs bonanza. Imagine how many people you can employ with $13k?!!

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Shane Wright tells us that Scott Morrison concedes some people will move to unemployment support as JobKeeper is wound back, but says the economy is mending.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jobless-queues-to-grow-as-support-measures-are-wound-back-20200721-p55e26.html
    Ross Gittins tells us that a good test of the adequacy of Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg’s mini-budget tomorrow will be how much it focuses on the needs of women.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/frydenberg-s-mini-budget-needs-to-measure-up-to-this-test-20200721-p55dzx.html
    David Crowe thinks Scott Morrison has made a crucial decision about income support on the basis of an optimism other Australians may struggle to feel.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-s-jobkeeper-call-based-in-optimism-others-may-not-feel-20200721-p55e3a.html
    Kirsten Lawson reports that Treasury warned the government that its two-tiered JobKeeper payment would be complicated and potentially unfair, especially given the summer bushfires.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6843661/treasury-warned-two-tier-jobkeeper-would-be-complex-and-potentially-unfair/?cs=14225
    The editorial in the AFR says that now we must grow our way out of this debt.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/now-we-must-grow-our-way-out-of-this-debt-20200721-p55dwr
    Pontificating Paul Kelly gets right behind Morrison and Frydenberg.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/morrison-strives-to-get-balance-right-on-recovery-jobkeeper-and-jobseeker/news-story/66390edead015cf5d7e5a0a19433b346
    The Guardian has assembled the views of several economists who explain why it’s dangerous to cut the coronavirus supplement and why Jobseeker should be permanently raised
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/21/jobseeker-payment-economists-on-why-its-dangerous-to-cut-covid-19-welfare-subsidy
    Should the government keep running up debt to get us out of the crisis? Overwhelmingly, economists say yes, writes Peter Martin.
    https://theconversation.com/should-the-government-keep-running-up-debt-to-get-us-out-of-the-crisis-overwhelmingly-economists-say-yes-143089
    The Morrison government has business and RBA backing for extending JobKeeper payments for another six months, but Victoria will be the test of whether economic recovery is possible by then, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/victoria-tests-negative-for-economy-20200721-p55e35
    Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has quashed any suggestions it will start printing cash to cover federal government debts, saying “helicopter money” would ultimately unleash inflation taxes on the country.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/helicopter-money-rba-governor-shoots-down-push-to-print-cash-20200721-p55e2x.html
    Whether a ratings chase or ideological war, News Corp’s coronavirus coverage is dangerous, warns journalism academic Denis Muller.
    https://theconversation.com/whether-a-ratings-chase-or-ideological-war-news-corps-coronavirus-coverage-is-dangerous-143003
    Marie Stopes’ Dr Catriona Melville declares that telehealth roll-backs are short-sighted and dangerous.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/telehealth-roll-backs-are-short-sighted-and-dangerous-20200721-p55e21.html
    The Age reports that there are almost 3000 people in Victoria with coronavirus who remain at home, often isolated from their families and unable to visit their doctors.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/remote-monitoring-the-latest-weapon-in-virus-battle-20200721-p55dww.html
    There are indications that by the end of this week NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian may face some tough choices. The question is, will she make a similar mistake to Victoria. Asks Peter van Onselen who does not want to see ideological fervour trumping good public policymaking response
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-ideological-fervour-must-not-trump-good-public-policymaking-response/news-story/acaa17e9c1610614971e28f14726ce61
    Clive Williams explores the subject of espionage and the race for a coronavirus vaccine.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6841183/espionage-and-the-race-for-a-covid-19-vaccine/?cs=17318
    Melissa Davies tells us that Medibank Private has accused consumer advocacy organisation Choice of making “irresponsible claims” and said it should “stick to reviewing baby prams,” after the release of a report that said Australia’s two largest health insurers had failed Australians during Covid-19. Bupa is also unhappy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/22/medibank-and-bupa-dispute-choice-claim-they-failed-australians-during-covid-19
    Super fund members are long accustomed to bumper returns but need to temper their expectations for a post-COVID-19 world, warns John Collett.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/super-funds-returns-likely-to-be-lower-for-longer-20200720-p55dl7.html
    Katharine Murphy writes about a Muslim group telling a Senate committee that it fears Australia is importing rightwing extremist content via Facebook.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/21/muslim-group-fears-australia-is-importing-rightwing-extremist-content-via-facebook
    Clancy Yeates looks at the way households are clamping down on debt and wonders if this will last.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/households-are-now-more-debt-shy-but-will-it-last-20200717-p55d4e.html
    James Massola reports on the latest warnings from the US about China’s increasingly assertive stance with regard to India, Taiwan, Hong Kong and in the South China Sea.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/which-big-brother-does-south-east-asia-want-us-blunt-warning-on-china-led-global-order-20200721-p55e7h.html
    Meanwhile the United States has declared it is Australia’s most important economic partner as it reinforces the benefits of the relationship between the two countries amid escalating tensions with China.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-would-never-threaten-trade-us-ambassador-talks-up-australian-relationship-20200721-p55e0s.html
    The number of people infected with the coronavirus in different parts of the US was anywhere from two to 13 times higher than the reported rates for those regions, according to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/covid-19-cases-could-be-up-to-13-times-higher-than-reported-in-parts-of-us-study-20200722-p55e7v.html
    More than $1 billion will be needed to help community sporting clubs across Australia recover from the destructive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, a national campaign has revealed. I can certainly attest to this, based upon the experience of our local community-owned sport and recreation facility.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/national-crisis-more-than-1-billion-needed-to-save-community-sport-clubs-20200721-p55e4u.html
    Yet again there are calls for a federal ICAC. This time from Ross Jones.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/another-day-another-rort-the-case-for-a-federal-icac-now,14124
    Several members of the mainstream media are remaining unquestioning over Scott Morrison’s undemocratic Parliament closure, writes Jennifer Wilson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/journalists-should-question-scott-morrison-over-parliament-closure,14123
    It is simply implausible that the Queen did not know that John Kerr was planning to sack Gough Whitlam, writes John Menadue. She may not have known the detail of the coup in progress, but she knew the substance.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-queens-denial-on-the-palace-papers-beggars-belief/
    Patrick Hatch reports that the government thinks the process of sale of Virgin Australia is on the right track.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/too-early-to-call-virgin-sale-a-success-says-moore-20200721-p55e31.html
    The British Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee has blasted the government for failing to conduct any rigorous analysis of whether or not Russia tried to influence the EU referendum campaign.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/british-government-lacked-curiosity-to-see-if-russia-meddled-in-brexit-election-20200721-p55e6s.html
    On this subject the acerbic John Crace accuses Boris Johnson of being asleep on the job.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/21/boris-johnson-was-asleep-on-the-job-and-since-when-was-idleness-a-crime-
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that, after several failed attempts, Trump looks like getting a plant onto the board of the US Federal Reserve.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/only-in-trump-s-america-could-there-be-a-fed-nominee-like-this-one-20200721-p55e06.html
    Nine Media’s Farrah Tomazin tells us why Trump threatens to turn American cities into a ‘dystopian movie set’,
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/why-trump-threatens-to-turn-american-cities-into-a-dystopian-movie-set-20200721-p55e1e.html
    David Sirota describes how Republicans are forcing Americans to return to dangerous workplaces.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/21/americans-coronavirus-pandemic-workers-safety
    Awra Mahdawi explains how Trump distracts people from his incoherence.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/21/trump-greatest-trick-distracting-us-all-from-his-incoherence
    Bloomberg examines the obstacles that will face a US economic and social recovery.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/return-to-the-70s-the-us-economy-might-be-doomed-to-repeat-history-20200721-p55duu.html
    Ibraham connections provide us with a number of nominations for “Arseholes of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/from-high-life-to-handcuffs-alleged-major-fraud-syndicate-uncovered-20200721-p55e65.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    John Shakespeare


    Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding


    Fiona Katauskas

    Simon Letch


    Johannes Leak earns his paycheck

    Mark Knight

    From the US












  26. “Ged would destroy the Greens if she was leader. She’d take their policy ground from them leaving them with maybe 3 or 4% primary vote.”

    ***

    Nah, the Labor Right Faction would still be in control behind the scenes pulling the strings as they always are. Aside from that, I really don’t think she is as popular with the Greens as you think. Put Penny Wong in charge of Labor and then we might be talking. However nobody in the Labor Party right now would make a better leader than Adam Bandt, including the aforementioned Senator.

  27. How crazy is it to insist on applying for 4 jobs a week during a pandemic?

    In principle, I have no problem with unemployed people applying for jobs.

  28. Kronomex, Morrison also spoke highly of the covidsafe app. Very complicated explanation that sounded like it was the app that identified all the contacts.

  29. @steve:

    “ Hard to see Canberra public servants voting Coalition. They know that the Liberals hate them, that they want to abolish, outsource or privatise whatever job they do.”

    For many, their greatest fear is that the Liberal’s country cousins will send their jobs to some small National Party stronghold.

  30. So, that Newspoll result suggests that the campaign for an early Federal election has started…

    … But before that, there is the Queensland state election, remember?

  31. “However nobody in the Labor Party right”….

    Labor Right: Bill Shorten, accused to be a dangerous socialist by Murdoch because Shorten was offering the most Social Democratic program since Whitlam, but he was advertised as a dangerous Neoliberal by the non-ALP left. Same with Wayne Swan, an alleged “right-winger” who has been at the forefront of strengthening the Social Democratic and Keynesian direction of the ALP.

    Labor Left: Anthony Albanese, accused by Murdoch and the non-ALP left alike of being a non-entity, a yes-man, weak…. irrelevant…. after both the ALP left and the non-ALP left cried and shouted that Albo had been robbed when Shorten won the ballot for the ALP leadership in 2013.

    Rigth-is-left…. left-is-right…. but the nonsense and the propaganda are ambidextrous!

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