Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

After a long period of stasis, Newspoll credits the Coalition with its biggest lead since the first post-election poll a year ago.

After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  3. Labor needs to go to slow learners school. They seem to fall for the same trick over and over again.

    Still Labor doesn’t seem to mind losing….

  6. Almost rates a Crikey. But perhaps also a wake-up for Labor and Greens spear throwers to get into some political analysis and strategy rather than sloganeering.

  12. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 9:48 pm
    33% PV – enough Labor vote to stop progressive change but not enough to take government.
    ____________
    Lars, about time we commenced Dissolution proceedings followed by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. We can then begin to create a new Social Democratic Party. Us two can write the party constitution one weekend over a few bottles of Grange and the odd line of coke.

  14. For some reason, the particular poll makes me mad. Albo is a big disappointment. Difficult environment but so what he is not cutting through. He needs to get hungry again, and soon.

  16. To be fair Labor has managed 47 without saying or doing anything for a long time that could be construed as opposition business.
    So Mundo says good on you Labor!
    Well done Albo and the team!

    Scrooter is toast!
    Toast I tells ya!!!

  18. Historyintime:

    53-47, will the ALP ever win a federal election again?

    Is that a question, or a leak of tomorrow’s front page headline from The Australian?

  19. Unless you completely get it wrong, like Trump or Bolsanaro, the general trend worldwide seems to be a poll improvement for democratic governments around the world, thanks to the Covid emergency. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Australia’s govt has finally got a poll boost out if it. Let’s see how it looks in a year.

  20. Actually Lars, Labor’s PV is 34%
    Benson’s article states:

    Labor’s primary vote of 34 per cent recorded in the latest poll is only marginally higher than its election result of 33.3 per cent,

    as does William’s article above.

    Frankly I’ll wait for a poll from another pollster before I’ll believe the 53:47.
    Benson’s article reads like a rallying cry, not a report.

  21. I didn’t predict this because I’ve tuned out to politics though I gotta say I am not surprised. When the ALP decided to stop showing up it makes it pretty easy for the PM to fill the room.

    The EM win…..really wasn’t, it was a line ball result and Absent Albo is letting the government off the hook for everything. I saw Jim C on the news and …. he’ll do. Time for a change i think.

    Remember Albo’s the kind of guy who can be chummy with Christopher Pyne, there really should be questions on judgement here.

    The ALP has essentially taken a really good attack with sports rorts and fires and CC and wasted it by letting things like parliament be delayed during this time.

    Morrison is going to be in for a while, he’s just smart enough to do it.

    Sigh…..

  23. Bludgers, like political journalists, should know better than to read too much into a single opinion poll result – while this small change seems strikingly significant, it is within the standard margin of error (+/- 3%) for any poll. This poll might mean something, or it might just be statistical noise, and we won’t really know the answer to that for a few months, when we can look back and see the trend. If these numbers hold firm until October, then it’s clear that the government has secured a decent and lasting benefit from their handling of the crisis. But history suggests that Newspoll will slip back again in a few weeks.

    It is probably the case the Coalition is holding a small but significant polling lead, and that they also likely command a stronger primary vote than Labor. If an election was being held this weekend, the government would most probably be returned (quite possibly with an increased majority), but of course the election is not being held this weekend, and it won’t be held until late next year at the earliest. By then, the pandemic crisis will more than likely be under control, but unemployment will still be close to 10%, and this poll will be long forgotten. Kevin Rudd was boasting even bigger leads than this throughout 2009, but it didn’t do him much good by the time the rolling election rolled around. It always pays to heed Harold Wilson’s oft-quoted truism that a week is a long time in politics – and so 15 months is a lifetime.

  26. Bludgers may not realise that:

    The results, marking a three-week interval between surveys, mirrored similar gains for the ­Coalition at the Eden-Monaro by-election on July 4, which saw a swing towards the government of two percentage points and a fall in support for Labor.

    The government only narrowly fell short of picking up the seat, which Labor managed to keep with a swag of minor-party preferences.

    (final paragraphs of Benson’s rabble-rousing article)

    Strange how Labor retained the seat against such a massive swing to the gov’t, don’t you think?
    Benson ignores the fact that many voters know how to use the preferential system to send messages to major parties. The voters allocate the prefs, not the “minor-party”. And they didn’t give them to Scotty (it was his picture on the corflutes).

  27. steve davis @ #1 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:40 pm

    Let the punters enjoy Smokos fantasy world of handouts until they run out and austerity returns.

    I honestly think that Scott Morrison would rather keep handing out the lollies until his government loses, then leave it to Labor to clean up the mess. That’s what the Coalition normally does.

  28. The results, marking a three-week interval between surveys, mirrored similar gains for the ­Coalition at the Eden-Monaro by-election on July 4, which saw a swing towards the government of two percentage points and a fall in support for Labor

    Jesus, he’s full of bullshit.

  29. Yes maude lynne – my bad – 34% rounded up PV is clearly a winning position for Labor.

    It’s a numbers blog, Lars. Best to stay accurate, don’t you think? 🙂

  30. Lars Von Trier @ #25 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:05 pm

    We need bob sprockets urgently for some vigorous and intensive “whatabout ” therapy for Labor hacks!

    Give the dog a bone, LvT! This juvenile schtick is fast becoming tired. Do you honestly think anyone other than nath and Player One find it at all amusing?

  31. The worst govt in history still got elected last time. Its not much of a bar to jump for the punters to back Smoko.

  33. Anyhoo, rubber hits the road for the first time this Thursday. There WILL be losers.

    Enjoy your day in the sun, Scott.

  34. The other thing about the Eden Monaro votes was that the minor / indie candidates were mainly left of centre, so of course the left vote was split, but went back to Labor on preferences. There was really only the Libs for the right voters, with the Shooters roughly taking the place of the absent Nats.

  36. steve davis @ #31 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:12 pm

    The worst govt in history still got elected last time. Its not much of a bar to jump for the punters to back Smoko.

    That was back when Morrison could still throw money at the punters like confetti. It won’t be so easy next time. Unless, as I say, he’s prepared to bankrupt the country to win again. Other than that scenario he will have to make some tough decisions between now and 2022.

  37. Its sad how some Labor supporters seem to be willing the Liberals to withdraw financial support on the basis that this will generate support for Labor. Why not try and win arguments?

  38. South is right, time to tune out politics for a while. Scrooter has a few years to run. Labor has to burn through Albo to get to the next leader so that’s the 22 election in the bag for Scrooter then we have to hope Charlmers has the right stuff to take it up to Scrooter in 25…not sure Mundo can maintain the enthusiasm that long let alone the rage.
    What has happened to Labor?

  39. C@t
    If Smoko reverts to Liberal ideology then a massive austerity campaign is going to be just round the corner.

  40. Am watching Supervolcano on SBS.

    It’s amusing to scare the pants off one’s self to imagine how much worse things would be with a “Trump” as President.

  42. steve davis says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:17 pm
    C@t
    If Smoko reverts to Liberal ideology then a massive austerity campaign is going to be just round the corner.
    ____________________
    Hoping for your opponent to fall over – isn’t much of a political strategy. What positive agenda does Labor have to offer? Its endorsed every major policy of the Liberals in the last 12 months.

  46. steve davis @ #38 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:17 pm

    C@t
    If Smoko reverts to Liberal ideology then a massive austerity campaign is going to be just round the corner.
    _______________________
    Anyone who thinks Morrison is going to return to any sort of austerity campaign is fooling themselves I believe.

  48. Benson is sniffing the cheap glue.

    In E-M the liberals PV was up 1.32%. The Nationals PV was down 0.57%.

    Re the Newspoll result. It is what it is at this point in time. A snap shot of what a random sample of 1850 voters are thinking.

    Perhaps Newspoll has at last awoken from its moribund state and is getting it right with its methodology and as a result random sampling is acting as random sampling should.

  49. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:20 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #36 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:17 pm

    Its sad how some Labor supporters seem to be willing the Liberals to withdraw financial support on the basis that this will generate support for Labor. Why not try and win arguments?
    Why bother when that’s the best YOU can do.
    ________________________________
    I’m feeling pretty good – I can see the final Labor collapse coming – most likely before the 100th anniversary of the formation of the UAP.

  50. Lars Von Trier @ #41 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:19 pm

    steve davis says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:17 pm
    C@t
    If Smoko reverts to Liberal ideology then a massive austerity campaign is going to be just round the corner.
    ____________________
    Hoping for your opponent to fall over – isn’t much of a political strategy. What positive agenda does Labor have to offer? Its endorsed every major policy of the Liberals in the last 12 months.

    Twisting the argument to suit a pre-determined ideological position by putting words into people’s mouths isn’t much of an argument either.

    Or do you believe that Scott Morrison has discovered a Magic Money Tree that will cause a painless and frictionless return to national prosperity?

    I’m just stating economic facts. You are just denying (economic) reality.

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