Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

After a long period of stasis, Newspoll credits the Coalition with its biggest lead since the first post-election poll a year ago.

After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Steve777 @ #1144 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:40 pm

    Re GG @8:31.
    You are no doubt right there. I don’t mind “investors” being burnt as prices crash in a deep recession. Speculation is supposed to be risky. Hopefully it will discourage others. The main problem is that it will affect lots of genuine homebuyers who brought in at the inflated prices of recent years.

    Fair comment. But, the housing market is not just one market. Traditional homes on property are holding up OK and will probably continue to do so.

    Re FHB, there are stamp duty rebates, First home owner grants of up to $20k and the the Government’s FHLDS which knocks out Lenders Mortgage Insrance. So, if you are looking at buying under $600k, you can buy a home with $30k plus about $3k of on costs.

    This is a very generous environment.

  2. A handy guide to compassion is to check the local booth whenever a natural disaster impacts on locals. If the booth has a positive ALP 2pp vote then sympathy can be expressed. If not. Then let them burn in hell.

    Ha. nath lecturing on sympathy.

    I thought Wamberal was a lefty town. Things may have changed.

    And I give my time to peeps around here who have been effected by fires. Peeps I dont know. In an electorate that hasnt ever had an ALP 2PP.

    Politics had nothing to do with my comment. What about yours?

  3. I know it’s a bit radical and everything but if I’m buying a house on a cliff top on the beach I’m making sure it won’t be washed away for at least the next 50yrs. Crazy eh ?

  4. Player One @ #1061 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 5:31 pm

    south @ #1047 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 4:31 pm

    Albo should listen to Ged.
    That’s where the next election’s going to be fought.

    I don’t know if Ged is quite ready to be leader yet, but hell … at least she stands for something.

    I’d be willing to give her a go, since she could hardly be any worse than Neville “Peace For Our Time” Albanese.

    Ged has leadership experience.

    She has a bit of fight in her it seems as well.

    She would need to move soon though to have enough time before Scotty from Marketing calls it.

  5. Nath
    The problem is there are times when the ALP deserves to lose an election so it is a bit harsh to punish an area because the ALP deserved to lose.

  6. Assuming a vaccine for Covid in 2021 the next election would be later that year (after August is the first date).

    If your ScoMo you go to an election asking the electorate to endorse your recovery program as soon as theirs an obvious improvement in the economy. Likely to be a huge boom – babies, travel , shopping etc once their is a vaccine.

  7. Rex Douglassays:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:09 pm
    “I know it’s a bit radical and everything but if I’m buying a house on a cliff top on the beach I’m making sure it won’t be washed away for at least the next 50yrs. Crazy eh ?”

    See if you can get a professional engineering/geophysical company with solid insurance to give you a report guaranteeing that.

  8. this Saturday our CFS brigade will be in the first group doing the redesigned Bunnings sausage sizzle.
    They have gone troppo over the requirements. For example –
    – now three tents as opposed to one
    – five people to be present at all times, no more, no less
    – one person to exclusively handle the cash
    – must have a portable EFTPOS capability
    – must hand sanitise every time cash is handled
    – aprons to be worn at all times
    – at least hourly surface cleaning
    – Bunnings will regularly check temperature of meat in coolers for being at 5 deg C or less
    – they want to know, on the day our exact turnover and input costs
    – and the list goes on

    A bit over the top I think.

  9. “Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:14 pm
    Player One @ #1061 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 5:31 pm

    south @ #1047 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 4:31 pm

    Albo should listen to Ged.
    That’s where the next election’s going to be fought.
    I don’t know if Ged is quite ready to be leader yet, but hell … at least she stands for something.

    I’d be willing to give her a go, since she could hardly be any worse than Neville “Peace For Our Time” Albanese.
    Ged has leadership experience.

    She has a bit of fight in her it seems as well.

    She would need to move soon though to have enough time before Scotty from Marketing calls it.”

    Does this mean that Adam Bandt isn’t cutting thru’ either? Otherwise if Albanese is a dud, shouldn’t Greens supporters be seeing a golden opportunity for Bandt to lead the Greens to take over from Labor, like Bob Brown said was the goal?

  10. Bucephalus @ #1160 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 9:26 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:09 pm
    “I know it’s a bit radical and everything but if I’m buying a house on a cliff top on the beach I’m making sure it won’t be washed away for at least the next 50yrs. Crazy eh ?”

    See if you can get a professional engineering/geophysical company with solid insurance to give you a report guaranteeing that.

    Any chance of an apology?

  11. Bucephalus @ #1158 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 9:26 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:09 pm
    “I know it’s a bit radical and everything but if I’m buying a house on a cliff top on the beach I’m making sure it won’t be washed away for at least the next 50yrs. Crazy eh ?”

    See if you can get a professional engineering/geophysical company with solid insurance to give you a report guaranteeing that.

    So it’s a massive gamble isn’t it.

    These people rolled the dice….

  12. filr @ #1160 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 9:27 pm

    “Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:14 pm
    Player One @ #1061 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 5:31 pm

    south @ #1047 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 4:31 pm

    Albo should listen to Ged.
    That’s where the next election’s going to be fought.
    I don’t know if Ged is quite ready to be leader yet, but hell … at least she stands for something.

    I’d be willing to give her a go, since she could hardly be any worse than Neville “Peace For Our Time” Albanese.
    Ged has leadership experience.

    She has a bit of fight in her it seems as well.

    She would need to move soon though to have enough time before Scotty from Marketing calls it.”

    Does this mean that Adam Bandt isn’t cutting thru’ either? Otherwise if Albanese is a dud, shouldn’t Greens supporters be seeing a golden opportunity for Bandt to lead the Greens to take over from Labor, like Bob Brown said was the goal?

    Bandt’s not cutting through either.

    Ged would destroy the Greens if she was leader. She’d take their policy ground from them leaving them with maybe 3 or 4% primary vote.

  13. BK

    Bunnings will regularly check temperature of meat in coolers for being at 5 deg C or less
    – they want to know, on the day our exact turnover and input costs

    Which have nothing to do with The Plague. I wonder what Bunnings are up to.

  14. The other weapon Ged has is she is seen as genuine.

    You can’t say the same for Scotty or Albo or Shorten or most others.

    I’d say she’d win the next election in a landslide.

  15. Italy to get 210billion Euro for covid recovery, that is 339 AUD. Over a third of Australia’s current debt.
    That is probably what is needed, will the Liberals be able to get over it spend the money and start the renewable revolution?

  16. Lars
    “endorse your recovery program”
    “Likely to be a huge boom”
    Jocular!
    Morrison will be well settled into his new assignment with WHO , having developed the necessary expertise.
    A thirty year non disclosure covenant in place to camouflage his misdemeanors and err ….. mistakes.
    “Booted out” with the “booty”. Again!
    Boom indeed….. in dissatisfaction rampant throughout a population up to their knees in it from the sheer incompetence and associated deception.
    Morrison , the father of a third world nation.
    Nath will be crying out for the return of Rudd, Gillard and Shorten to bring some reality back into his life.
    Before you dismiss my rambling have a squiz at some of the stuff posted lately.

  17. Seriously why doesn’t this f wit go quietly into retirement

    #MaskUpMelbourne
    @DanJCass
    ·
    11m
    This is irresponsible and nihilistic. Alan Jones has shifted from climate science denial to medical science denial? Big deal. Why does Sky run such childish, destructive rubbish? Serious question.
    Quote Tweet

    Sky News Australia
    @SkyNewsAust
    · 43m
    Sky News host @AlanJones says it is high time to regain the country’s freedoms, breathe easily, and condemn the alarmists and their coronavirus fear mongering.

    https://bit.ly/2OLnNDL

  18. ”That is probably what is needed, will the Liberals be able to get over it spend the money and start the renewable revolution?“

    Will fish be able to get over swimming and ride bicycles?

  19. “Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:35 pm

    Bandt’s not cutting through either.

    Ged would destroy the Greens if she was leader. She’d take their policy ground from them leaving them with maybe 3 or 4% primary vote.”

    Labor is already getting most of these votes anyway on preferences, so that still leaves the issue of where Labor is to get the votes in order to get past 51% – and I take your past comments about “yokels” to mean that Labor shouldn’t go after regional voters eg in Queensland.

    Plus would comments about “SDA” types mean Labor should also forget about some more traditional but lower middle class, suburban voters?

    I note that in the last year federal election the Greens did drop going after Labor voters in more older working class suburbs (Coburg, Preston) in favour of more “progressive” liberals in Kew & Hawthorn. Their candidate was an older, white, wealthy lawyer – Julian Burnside.

  20. Dr Sandro Demaio
    @SandroDemaio
    · 13h
    #MaskUpMelbourne:

    Customers in metro Melbourne & Mitchell Shire shopping at Bunnings, Officeworks, Kmart, Target, Myer, David Jones and the Country Road Group will NOT be able to enter if they are not wearing a mask, the companies confirmed — from Wednesday 11:59pm.

    #COVID19Au

  21. Ged could romp it in on a 2 part strategy.
    1. Pull the rug out from under the Greens.
    2. Bribe the hell out of outer urb battler.

  22. Gollsays:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:44 pm
    Lars
    “endorse your recovery program”
    “Likely to be a huge boom”
    Jocular!
    Morrison will be well settled into his new assignment with WHO , having developed the necessary expertise.
    A thirty year non disclosure covenant in place to camouflage his misdemeanors and err ….. mistakes.
    “Booted out” with the “booty”. Again!
    Boom indeed….. in dissatisfaction rampant throughout a population up to their knees in it from the sheer incompetence and associated deception.
    Morrison , the father of a third world nation.
    Nath will be crying out for the return of Rudd, Gillard and Shorten to bring some reality back into his life.
    Before you dismiss my rambling have a squiz at some of the stuff posted lately.
    ________________
    I don’t understand these words. Classic Gollism.

  23. Victoria
    Someone needs to ask Alan Jones why he felt the need to hide in his home in Kangaroo Valley instead of coming to work at 2GB.
    He has a studio set up at home.
    Has he emerged from his bunker yet?

  24. “Customers in metro Melbourne & Mitchell Shire shopping at Bunnings, Officeworks, Kmart, Target, Myer, David Jones and the Country Road Group will NOT be able to enter if they are not wearing a mask, the companies confirmed — from Wednesday 11:59”

    God, Melbourne really sucks doesn’t it. Good thing we don’t have any of this in Queensland.

  25. A lot of people have reduced income, a lot of people are risking their lives looking after people that will die if they don’t, and we have fuckwits like Alan Jones carrying on. To use a technical term; fuck them.

    The more people who follow the rules, the more people who wear the masks the faster this will be over. Ok the people that are trying to bring this under control aren’t perfect, but two things are for sure, there should be a special place in hell for those trying to undermine their efforts and CMO’s can’t do it on their own.

  26. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:29 pm

    I have nothing to apologise for- in particular to you.

  27. I am wearing a mask when I go into shops or other indoor public spaces. A significant minority of Sydneysiders are doing likewise. I’ve restocked my stash of tinned food, long life milk, etc.

    Meanwhile, regardless of whether they are open or not, I won’t be going to pubs, clubs or restaurants for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, the great outdoors – parks, beaches, local walks – They’re still safe. Small family gatherings are also safe – our birthdays bunch up in June and July.

  28. steve davis
    Many would be fans but there would be many that follow him either because they are in the media and politics or want to hear different views.

  29. Frednk

    Seatbelts were mandated in Victoria in 1970.
    Followed by SA in 1971

    I reckon Melbourne is up to the challenge of mask wearing

  30. “Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:56 pm
    Ged could romp it in on a 2 part strategy.
    1. Pull the rug out from under the Greens.
    2. Bribe the hell out of outer urb battler.”

    That presumes that outer suburban battlers never consider their personal values above their hip pocket.

    As just an anecdote, most of my wider family live in Melbourne’s north and are not professionals. They certainly consider their hip pocket, but also their values – and quite a few of them don’t like the implied snobbery to those values that seems to come from “progressive” – and wealthier – inner city types, both Labor and Greens.

    Also as another passing comment, the wealthiest city overall in Australia is Canberra, which currently has a Labor-Green coalition. That place does definitely vote hip pocket, because a Labor government would certainly mean an expanded public service. After all, while indigenous health still remains a national disgrace, the Canberra bureaucracy has done very well since Whitlam first set up a dedicated department nearly 50 years ago.

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