Miscellany: Newspoll state leaders ratings, trust in goverment and more

A second tranche of Newspoll results finds Daniel Andrews taking a coronavirus-related popularity hit but still doing well in absolute terms, with Gladys Berejiklian also down from earlier peaks.

It is apparently the case that Essential Research will, at long last, be including voting intention when it publishes its next survey next week. I also gather that it’s back to a fortnightly publication schedule after going to weekly for the first few months of the coronavirus crisis.


• My Newspoll post on Sunday night noted that the sample was an unusually high 1850, compared with the more normal 1500 to 1600. It turns out that this was done to juice up the New South Wales and Victorian sub-samples to 601 and 605 respectively, allowing The Australian to run a follow-up yesterday on the respective state governments’ handling of coronavirus. This predictably found a decline in Daniel Andrews’ numbers, though they remain high in absolute terms, with his approval down ten since a June 24-28 poll to 57%, and disapproval up the same amount to 37%. However, Gladys Berejiklian was also down four on approval to 64% and up four on disapproval to 30%, suggesting part of Andrews’ fall was purely gravitational. Andrews is still rated as having handled the virus well by 61% and poorly by 36%, compared with 72% and 25% from June 24-28 and 85% and 11% from April 21-26. However, the decline has been concentrated in the “very well” response, which has progressed from 51% to 32% to 27%. Berejiklian is at 68% for well (down eleven) and 26% for poorly (up ten). Scott Morrison is now doing better than both, at 72% well (down seven) and 24% poorly (up six) in New South Wales and 77% well (down four) and 20% poorly (up three) in Victoria. Results at national level found 76% saying they were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, up four from May 13-16, compared with 20% saying they were more concerned about moving too slowly, down four. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday.

• An academic survey conducted by the Democracy 2025 project, encompassing the United States, United Kingdom and Italy as well as Australia, records a dramatic increase in trust in the federal government (54%, compared with 29% in last year’s post-election Australian Election Study survey) and the public service (up from 38% to 54%), with smaller improvements recorded for the media (television up seven to 39%, newspapers up eight to 37% and radio up three to 41%). The survey was conducted from a sample of 1059 in May and June – small-sample state breakdowns provide another increment of evidence that Western Australia’s government is doing best of all out of the crisis.

• The Victorian Liberals have been spruiking internal robo-polling, apparently commissioned by Senator James Patterson, showing 65% to 70% disapproval of state government agreements with China as part of the latter’s “Belt and Road” initiative, based on a sample of 7000 respondents across seven marginal Labor-held seats.

• South Australian Attorney-General Vickie Chapman has confirmed the government will proceed with an attempt to introduce optional preferential voting in the state. Labor and the Greens are opposed, which will leave the fate of the proposal in the hands of upper house cross-benchers elected under the Nick Xenophon banner. A blog post by Antony Green tackles the issue with characteristic thoroughness. I gather they have thought better of clamping down on the dissemination of how-to-vote cards at polling booths, contrary to earlier reports.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,045 comments on “Miscellany: Newspoll state leaders ratings, trust in goverment and more”

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  1. In USA Trump is now stacking the US Fed Board with questionable candidates. These people will influence US (and world) monetary policy until 2024. It can only happen if all republican senators go along with Trump, so some pretty appalling behavior here. Looks like they know they are going to lose so are planning to wreck the joint on the way out.

  2. This bit of local SA news deserves some publicity. Three SA State MPs – Liberals of course – are repaying tens of thousands of dollars in country MP travel expenses they claimed. There is no admission of wrongdoing, and Transport Minister Stephen Knoll refers to “ambiguity” in the regulations in deciding to repay exactly $29,574.

    Knoll acknowledged he stayed with his parents while visiting Adelaide. Sounds like we have a budding Angus Taylor on our hands.

  3. Cat

    Then they are appointing the keystone cops to the clean-up crew. Euphoria of booting Trump aside, unless the Democrats win the Senate in November, Biden faces a daunting challenge. Most of the republican Senators are as bad as Trump. Consider the judges they have approved, and the laughable impeachment vote.

    Have a good day all. Good luck Victoria. I would wish small business owners good luck too, but its your own fault most of you voted for Scomo, so adios financial support. Fools.

  4. Scott Morrison is now doing better than both, at 72% well (down seven) and 24% poorly (up six) in New South Wales and 77% well (down four) and 20% poorly (up three) in Queensland.


    What is Morrison rating in victoria ?

    Lower than Andrews ?

  5. William Bowe says:
    Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 7:10 am
    Queensland should have said Victoria. Now corrected.


    thank you

  6. One last comment before starting a long day. Xanthippe put me onto this blog of US politics written by some US labour lawyers, which reports on a lot of US topics probably familiar to bludgers. This article highlights that the Fox News sexual harassment complaints have not stopped with the departure of Roger Ailes. How many more?

  7. Socrates @6:59
    This bit of local SA news deserves some publicity. Three SA State MPs – Liberals of course –

    Well had they been Labor or Green the noise would have been deafening.

  8. The IPA and Murdoch press think legal advice from a QC is as good as a guilty conviction: yeah, nah.

    The Oz (paywalled): Police refusal to punish BLM protesters ‘unlawful’, QC says
    Sky News: Lack of action against BLM protesters in Melbourne may be unlawful

    “If you’re weak on the facts and strong on the law, pound the law. If you’re weak on the law and strong on the facts, pound the facts. If you’re weak on both, pound the table.”

  9. The corrupt foreign media own and controlled Libs/nats want

    1- Borders to be open – it doesnt matter how many Australians get sick or die , infected by the corona virus , to Morrison and his cronies their corrupt donors only matter

    2- Schools to be open – it doesnt matter how many Australians get sick or die , infected by the corona virus , to Morrison and his cronies their corrupt donors only matter

    3- The every day Australian – it doesnt matter how many Australians get sick or die , infected by the corona virus , to Morrison and his cronies their corrupt donors only matter

  10. With those figures of Morrison’s ratings, it just shows the influence of the media. Just look at how they portray Dictator Andrews.
    This is why the ALP cannot get through, it’s up to the Media to follow through on the LNP corruption and dysfunction of the LNP government.

  11. Trump ‘mismanaged’ America and now we’re being ‘stretched to the breaking point’: Ex-Republican Rick Wilson

    “Lincoln Project” co-founder, and former Republican, Rick Wilson, penned a Miami Herald column attacking President Donald Trump for bringing the United States to the brink of a “breaking point” by “mismanagement” of every crisis he has faced.

    “Does Trump’s America feel great to you?” he asked, harkening back to Trump’s infamous slogan “Make America Great Again.”

    “Many members of our nation’s dwindling Greatest Generation have spent the months since March imprisoned in their homes for fear of COVID-19’s fatal consequences,” Wilson continued. “Many are spending the twilight of their lives lonely, isolated and afraid. For them, Trump’s plan is a grim calculus no American leader should accept.”He considers the very people who saved America from fascism and communism to be expendable. If they have to die for the Dow Jones to go up a few points, it’s all worth it. And it doesn’t stop there.”

    He said that Americans are abandoning hope for a normal life because Trump failed in his leadership to calm the death rate. Instead, he appears on Fox News and lies that the U.S. is the best in the world with the lowest mortality rate.

    “How many more lives must be lost and dreams shattered before we realize that the only way to truly restore America to greatness is by removing this failed president from office?” Wilson closed.

    MORE : https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/trump-mismanaged-america-and-now-were-being-stretched-to-the-breaking-point-ex-republican-rick-wilson/

  12. Paul Bongiorno
    Nothing is certain in politics but @ScottMorrisonMP performed strongly on @abc730 ..His political opponents underestimate him at their risk.

    Cheryl Kernot
    “Strong” in the sense that he “slipperied” his way through it, unscathed? As usual.

  13. The other day Leigh Sales was promoting the idea that pollies who don’t answer questions should be pursued for the truth until they do. A fine idea, Leigh.

  14. Trump’s daily coronavirus briefings are back!

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    Children don’t even know that they are ill, because “they recover almost immediately”

  15. “It is apparently the case that Essential Research will, at long last, be including voting intention when it publishes its next survey next week.”


    Finally! Does this also mean we can look forward to a reintroduction of the BludgerTracker for voting intention now that you will have more to work with?

  16. Bk got caught out. 🙂
    From the previous, minus cartoons.

    BK (Block)
    Wednesday, July 22nd, 2020 – 5:35 am
    Comment #1242
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Shane Wright tells us that Scott Morrison concedes some people will move to unemployment support as JobKeeper is wound back, but says the economy is mending.
    Ross Gittins tells us that a good test of the adequacy of Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg’s mini-budget tomorrow will be how much it focuses on the needs of women.
    David Crowe thinks Scott Morrison has made a crucial decision about income support on the basis of an optimism other Australians may struggle to feel.
    Kirsten Lawson reports that Treasury warned the government that its two-tiered JobKeeper payment would be complicated and potentially unfair, especially given the summer bushfires.
    The editorial in the AFR says that now we must grow our way out of this debt.
    Pontificating Paul Kelly gets right behind Morrison and Frydenberg.
    The Guardian has assembled the views of several economists who explain why it’s dangerous to cut the coronavirus supplement and why Jobseeker should be permanently raised
    Should the government keep running up debt to get us out of the crisis? Overwhelmingly, economists say yes, writes Peter Martin.
    The Morrison government has business and RBA backing for extending JobKeeper payments for another six months, but Victoria will be the test of whether economic recovery is possible by then, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has quashed any suggestions it will start printing cash to cover federal government debts, saying “helicopter money” would ultimately unleash inflation taxes on the country.
    Whether a ratings chase or ideological war, News Corp’s coronavirus coverage is dangerous, warns journalism academic Denis Muller.
    Marie Stopes’ Dr Catriona Melville declares that telehealth roll-backs are short-sighted and dangerous.
    The Age reports that there are almost 3000 people in Victoria with coronavirus who remain at home, often isolated from their families and unable to visit their doctors.
    There are indications that by the end of this week NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian may face some tough choices. The question is, will she make a similar mistake to Victoria. Asks Peter van Onselen who does not want to see ideological fervour trumping good public policymaking response
    Clive Williams explores the subject of espionage and the race for a coronavirus vaccine.
    Melissa Davies tells us that Medibank Private has accused consumer advocacy organisation Choice of making “irresponsible claims” and said it should “stick to reviewing baby prams,” after the release of a report that said Australia’s two largest health insurers had failed Australians during Covid-19. Bupa is also unhappy.
    Super fund members are long accustomed to bumper returns but need to temper their expectations for a post-COVID-19 world, warns John Collett.
    Katharine Murphy writes about a Muslim group telling a Senate committee that it fears Australia is importing rightwing extremist content via Facebook.
    Clancy Yeates looks at the way households are clamping down on debt and wonders if this will last.
    James Massola reports on the latest warnings from the US about China’s increasingly assertive stance with regard to India, Taiwan, Hong Kong and in the South China Sea.
    Meanwhile the United States has declared it is Australia’s most important economic partner as it reinforces the benefits of the relationship between the two countries amid escalating tensions with China.
    The number of people infected with the coronavirus in different parts of the US was anywhere from two to 13 times higher than the reported rates for those regions, according to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
    More than $1 billion will be needed to help community sporting clubs across Australia recover from the destructive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, a national campaign has revealed. I can certainly attest to this, based upon the experience of our local community-owned sport and recreation facility.
    Yet again there are calls for a federal ICAC. This time from Ross Jones.
    Several members of the mainstream media are remaining unquestioning over Scott Morrison’s undemocratic Parliament closure, writes Jennifer Wilson.
    It is simply implausible that the Queen did not know that John Kerr was planning to sack Gough Whitlam, writes John Menadue. She may not have known the detail of the coup in progress, but she knew the substance.
    Patrick Hatch reports that the government thinks the process of sale of Virgin Australia is on the right track.
    The British Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee has blasted the government for failing to conduct any rigorous analysis of whether or not Russia tried to influence the EU referendum campaign.
    On this subject the acerbic John Crace accuses Boris Johnson of being asleep on the job.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that, after several failed attempts, Trump looks like getting a plant onto the board of the US Federal Reserve.
    Nine Media’s Farrah Tomazin tells us why Trump threatens to turn American cities into a ‘dystopian movie set’,
    David Sirota describes how Republicans are forcing Americans to return to dangerous workplaces.
    Awra Mahdawi explains how Trump distracts people from his incoherence.
    Bloomberg examines the obstacles that will face a US economic and social recovery.
    Ibraham connections provide us with a number of nominations for “Arseholes of the Week”.

  17. “I’m being followed by ads for face masks…”


    That’s probably Google tracking you with a tracking cookie. If you’ve done a search for masks or gone and looked at a page about masks which has Google Analytics or Adsense code on it then that would be why. They know where you’ve been lol. William uses both those Google services here on PB, as do countless other websites. If it bothers you just disable tracking cookies. You can also opt out using a Google account or just block the ads outright using ad-blocker addons.

  18. Got me William! Thanks Barney.
    And here are the cartoons.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    John Shakespeare

    Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding

    Fiona Katauskas

    Simon Letch

    Johannes Leak earns his paycheck

    Mark Knight

    From the US

  19. Looking at the ‘highlights’ of Dotard’s press conference, wishing paedo enabler Ghislane Maxwell well is probably the low point.

    However promoting the use of masks is the most dangerous for him. The significant part of base, the FU Wing, see masks as an affront to their god given liberty. What will they think if their pinup boy has succumbed to the wokes?

  20. Too funny. Trump succumbing to masks.
    Does that mean the likes of Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones have been left stranded like shags on a rock.

  21. Businesses are now taking the opportunity of having staff wear masks with their business logo.
    As the saying goes, never let a good crisis go to waste.

  22. Vic

    Perhaps Trump is setting the grounds for a presidential pardon of Maxwell? Even so, this is a sideshow in the bigger event and probably wouldn’t shift numbers much.

  23. For businesses, they see mask wearing as a means of getting the economy moving again.

    The directive to wear masks in public will be around for a long time here in Melbourne.

    Therefore the opportunity to make this a political issue here by the usual suspects isnt going to work.

  24. Galdys is holding out on masks.
    What would happen if Gladys mandated mask wearing?
    1. Transmission drops in all closed environments
    2. Probably no need for harsh stage 3 or 4 lockdown
    3. Most businesses survive
    4. People can’t eat or drink socially and still wear a mask, so
    5. Pubs, clubs, casinos, restaurants (indoor dining out, takeaway OK) will have to close.

    For Gladys, Point 5 beats all the others. Pubs (AHA), ClubsNSW, Casinos & Gambling companies are big donors to federal parties.
    Gladys will never mandate mask wearing everywhere – SfM would simply not allow it.

  25. RN Breakfast
    Ken Henry says he can’t understand why the Govt didn’t announce a new, permanent rate for JobSeeker yesterday #AusPol

    Because they want to retain “flexibility”, that is, the ability to lower the rate and punish the unemployed even more.

  26. Just some harmless errors. Nothing deliberate:

    Three South Australian Liberal MPs, including two Cabinet ministers, will be forced to repay more than $70,000 of taxpayers’ money claimed in accommodation allowances.

    SA Premier Steven Marshall said the payments were claimed in error and denied there had been any deliberate wrongdoing.


  27. Maude Lynne

    If NSW introduced mandatory masks starting now, it would dramatically decrease the risks that are now in the community.

    It is a no brainer.

  28. lizzie @ #19 Wednesday, July 22nd, 2020 – 7:48 am

    The other day Leigh Sales was promoting the idea that pollies who don’t answer questions should be pursued for the truth until they do. A fine idea, Leigh.

    Last Sales said to Morrison…wtte if Labor had wasted billions in overpayments the coalition would be screaming from the rafters..
    Morrison said, ‘Leigh, I’m not interested in the politics….’

    TRANSLATION; Leigh, if Labor a so stupid as to let an opportunity
    to gain political advantage go begging that’s their problem, we’ll take the free kick.

  29. lizzie @ #36 Wednesday, July 22nd, 2020 – 8:39 am

    RN Breakfast
    Ken Henry says he can’t understand why the Govt didn’t announce a new, permanent rate for JobSeeker yesterday #AusPol

    Because they want to retain “flexibility”, that is, the ability to lower the rate and punish the unemployed even more.

    ‘Because they want to retain “flexibility”, that is, the ability to lower the rate and punish the unemployed even more.’ Mr Albanese said this morning.

  30. Jonathan Bernstein@jbview
    Just to be clear: By real president standards, that was a horror show. Numerous wacky-false statements, undercut some of his own points, didn’t seem aware of multiple important issues, etc., etc., etc.

    So even when his advisors force him to read from the teleprompter and not stray from it, he still manages to stuff it up!

  31. Socrates says:
    Wednesday, July 22, 2020 at 6:46 am

    “If they give each one of those clubs $13,000 each it will be a jobs bonanza. Imagine how many people you can employ with $13k?!!”

    That’d employ a Canteen Manager and a helper which would lead to significantly improved Canteen Management and turnover – no need for a Coffee Van to come in and take revenue.

  32. I should add that myself and my family started wearing masks a few weeks ago.

    Which is when I think it should have been mandated, rather than just recommended and encouraged.

    I can see that they had to plant the seed, but sometimes better to be forceful about something that relates to a health crisis.

  33. @Bowenchris
    It’s always someone else’s fault with Scott Morrison. Now apparently the reason the the COVID app hasn’t traced a single contact is because not enough people in the “communities where the Melbourne outbreak emerged” have downloaded the app. Sure, blame the people.

    And especially blame “Melbourne”. Because Gladys is as pure as the driven…

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