After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.
Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition
After a long period of stasis, Newspoll credits the Coalition with its biggest lead since the first post-election poll a year ago.
Morrison won’t be around for the next Federal election. It’s Morrison’s way. Travelling showman, grab the money and run. When the clowns finish turning their heads from side to side its all over.
Barney
I thought I heard that “the Regulator” would not be independent, but part of Sussan Ley’s department. There’s the sweet spot for Morrison, right there.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/environmental-laws-dated-and-inefficient-review-finds/news-story/01cee9cba52361afe89303ca10f22cec
So that’s all right folks. No wukking furries.
An additional benefit would appear to be the hastening of the rapture.
I guess we’ll all be translated to Heaven or Hell just that little sooner than expected.
Fresh coffee.☕
Goll @ #750 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 5:20 am
I don’t know where you got that idea.
His history suggests that his main reason for moving on from a job was that he was booted out.
Classic Gollism straight off the bat at 720am.
Sadly no one is talking about a revolving door prime ministership anymore except old Goll.
lizzie @ #751 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 5:20 am
Not surprising.
It should be managed at a State level, with independent authorities established to do so.
Thanks Kayjay.
With the Liberals turning their attention to ‘overhauling’ environmental laws, this should be the moment the Greens find their voice on the destructive intent of this coalition govt. I shan’t hold my breath.
Have you considered conducting a dirty protest confessions ? Demonstrate your outrage towards the Greens ?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/07/19/newspoll-53-47-coalition-2/comment-page-16/#comment-3449787
Given all the snoozing, skiving off, bumbling and stumbling be it Wuflu, fires, flooding, PR of C …, I reckon the LyingN(C)P will remove PM 5/ 6 since 2007, and go for another, about 2021 …
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
David Crowe reckons he has the info on the future of JobKeeper and JobSeeker.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jobkeeper-will-be-extended-until-march-but-split-into-two-tiers-20200720-p55dri.html
JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments will live on beyond September, but payments will be trimmed and fewer people may be eligible. JobKeeper will also change to a two-tiered system, rather than a flat amount for all recipients, as the federal government looks to claw back from those industries that no longer need as much assistance, explains Josh Butler.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/07/20/jobkeeper-jobseeker-extended/
Retaining the JobKeeper wage subsidy in its current form would leave Australia with zombie businesses and jobs, a Treasury review of the program found, while warning the scheme had unhealthy incentives which could hold back the economy’s recovery. It’s quite a balancing act all round.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-will-be-left-with-zombie-firms-without-jobkeeper-change-treasury-20200720-p55dp5.html
On this subject Elizabeth Knight says tottering small businesses need more than another loan guarantee scheme.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/tottering-small-businesses-need-more-than-another-loan-guarantee-scheme-20200720-p55dqt.html
Meanwhile Cait Kelly tells us how hundreds of Australian businesses are under investigation for allegedly exploiting employees through JobKeeper. The spivs were always going to step up.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/07/21/jobkeeper_rorts/
The Australian says that the federal government must act urgently to reform insolvency processes for businesses to help better manage a wave of collapses set to hit when COVID-19 support and protections end, industry players and advocates have warned.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/leadership/calls-for-urgent-reform-of-insolvency-process/news-story/395f98059ac3cf1ee1acf113990bc3d5
Kevin Rudd has seven questions that he says Scott Morrison must answer on this crisis.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/seven-questions-scott-morrison-must-answer-on-this-crisis-20200720-p55dpr
Paul Bongiorno writes that the Prime Minister is riding high, but it’s not getting any easier in the next phase.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/07/21/paul-bongiorno-pm-approval-coronavirus/
Construction of utility-scale renewables projects, new public transport infrastructure and the restoration of threatened ecosystems could see as many as 76,000 new jobs created during Australia’s COVID-19 recovery, writes the AFR’s Tm McIlroy.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/bang-for-stimulus-buck-new-plan-for-76-000-recovery-jobs-20200720-p55dkx
Paul Karp writes that Australian unions are concerned the National Covid-19 Coordination Commission’s focus on gas is too narrow to achieve the energy transformation needed for sustainable manufacturing.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/20/covid-19-commission-should-focus-on-carbon-neutral-manufacturing-projects-not-just-gas-actu
Alexandra Smith describes the anxiety being felt by the NSW cabinet over Covid-19. Sydney could be headed for mask wearing.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/tighter-restrictions-and-masks-more-likely-than-full-lockdown-20200720-p55ds7.html
Professor Nick Talley outlines his ideas on how NSW can stop the virus dead in its tracks.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-nsw-can-stop-the-virus-dead-in-its-tracks-20200720-p55dkw.html
Josh Butler explains how Victoria’s face masks order became instantly politicised. He mentions the Trump playbook.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/07/21/politicisation-face-masks/
The town of Colac has launched its own contact tracing program amid complaints state authorities have been “woefully slow” on containing an outbreak at its Australian Lamb abattoir.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/victoria-can-t-keep-up-with-massive-tracing-task-20200720-p55dnl
We dodged a bullet in March and April but any sense of relief has been wiped away in the last couple of weeks, writes emergency doctor Stephen Parnis
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/20/in-28-years-as-an-australian-emergency-doctor-this-is-the-most-stressful-period
Bevan Shields reports that British scientists have made a breakthrough in the race to find a coronavirus vaccine, with the first round of human trials showing the shot induces the strong immune response needed to fend off infection.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-triggers-strong-immune-response-trial-shows-20200720-p55dtl.html
An Australian manufacturer of medical masks says it is operating around-the-clock to fulfil its contract to boost the Commonwealth stockpile and has no capacity to meet increased demand from the Victorian public.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/mask-demand-crashes-websites-creates-shortage-of-elastic-20200720-p55dlp.html
Josh Taylor reports that at the opening of the inquiry yesterday it was said that nearly all coronavirus cases now in Victoria may have link to hotel quarantine failure.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/20/nearly-all-coronavirus-cases-now-in-victoria-may-have-link-to-hotel-quarantine-inquiry-told
Jennifer Duke tells us about the second “avalanche” of people withdrawing money from their super and the resultant retail spending spike.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mind-blowing-retail-spending-soars-with-super-withdrawals-stimulus-payments-20200720-p55dm3.html
John Durie suggests that there IS a way to make Google pay its way for media content.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/leadership/how-to-make-google-pay-its-way-for-media-content/news-story/8d5db7985ba38318eebe2e91fa09e2e8
Christopher Knaus points to some correspondence that shows that Tim Wilson provided direct assistance to the Institute of Public Affairs and solicited endorsement for his looming 2016 Liberal preselection battle while in the office of human rights commissioner.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/21/tim-wilson-human-rights-commissioner-institute-public-affairs-ipa-solicit-liberal-party-endorsement
Peter Hartcher explains how the world is likely heading into a population crisis, but it’s just not the one we were long told to expect.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-world-is-heading-for-a-population-crisis-but-not-the-one-it-was-expecting-20200720-p55dl1.html
The SMH editorial urges the Coalition to not abandon the federal role in managing the environment.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/coalition-must-not-abandon-federal-role-in-environment-20200720-p55drs.html
And Katie Burgess writes that a landmark review found enforcement of Australia’s environmental protection laws was “too weak” and called for a new independent watchdog.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6840225/landmark-review-of-weak-environment-laws-calls-for-independent-watchdog/?cs=14350
Noel Towell reports that the Victorian Liberals are preparing to fight the state Labor government on its Belt and Road deal with China all the way to the next election after internal opposition research showed the agreement was deeply unpopular in key Labor-held marginal seats.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/liberals-to-hammer-andrews-on-dodgy-belt-and-road-deal-all-the-way-to-2022-20200720-p55drt.html
Parliament not meeting, even remotely, sets a bad example says Michell Grattan. She’s not wrong!
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-parliament-not-meeting-even-remotely-sets-a-bad-example-143002
The Coalition’s debt blowout was well on its way before the pandemic and makes Labor’s debt during Global Financial Crisis pale into insignificance, writes Alan Austin.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/coalition-trebles-labors-debt–in-triple-quick-time,14119
The tax paid by superannuation funds on their earnings is often less than 10%, much lower than the headline rate of 15%, according to research by the University of Technology Sydney. And in an industry worth $2.7 trillion, this means a huge difference in the tax take for government. Callum Foote reports.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/australias-super-funds-pay-up-to-33-less-tax-than-advertised/
Peter Burnett tells us why he is concerned that Environment Minister Sussan Ley is in a tearing hurry to embrace nature law reform.
https://theconversation.com/environment-minister-sussan-ley-is-in-a-tearing-hurry-to-embrace-nature-law-reform-and-thats-a-worry-141697
Nick Bonyhady reveals that Australia Post is paying for a confidential security program to protect its sensitive information amid a series of leaks that revealed the company was considering slowing letter delivery times and replacing post offices with automated kiosks.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/highly-irregular-australia-post-discloses-security-program-20200720-p55dp3.html
In another instalment of the saga Patrick Hatch writes that bondholders trying to derail the bankrupt airline’s sale to Bain Capital have lodged a draft deed of company arrangement to its administrators.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/virgin-bondholders-push-to-meet-airline-management-and-unions-20200720-p55dqk.html
In one of his better efforts Stephen Bartholomeusz looks at the pushback against Chinese goods and how things might change with Biden and the Democrats in charge.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/made-in-china-on-the-nose-as-push-to-tame-beijing-gathers-pace-20200720-p55dm7.html
Due to international border restrictions and the very high rate of unemployment, Australia’s 2020-21 migration and humanitarian programs are likely to be fewer than since the start of post-war migration explains Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australias-migration-and-humanitarian-programs-at-record-lows,14121
If you are using a free VPN service you should read this.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/liberals-to-hammer-andrews-on-dodgy-belt-and-road-deal-all-the-way-to-2022-20200720-p55drt.html
The combination of anti-vaxxers on the march and a government with woeful health messaging could be lethal for Britain writes Polly Toynbee as UK researchers announce positive results from a Covid-19 vaccine trial
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/20/coronavirus-vaccine-anti-vaxxers-britain
Greg Sheridan describes Trump’s latest bout on “nuttiness”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/strangest-and-most-grotesquely-untrue-statement-of-donald-trumps-life/news-story/c272cb4cd01481cf33e0fac732d61180
As cases soar and poll numbers drop, Trump will resume virus briefings, so stand by for even more “nuttiness”!
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/vaccine-hopes-rise-after-promising-results-from-oxford-trial-20200721-p55due
Trump’s sweaty Fox News interview shows his 2020 chances melting away writes Richard Wolffe. He says that with every new interview, it sounds like he’s just asking his mommy to please take him home.
https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2020/jul/20/trump-interview-fox-news-election-polls-chances-melting-away
It seems Joe Biden has endorsed the Green New Deal in all but name.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/20/joe-biden-has-endorsed-the-green-new-deal-in-all-but-name
The New York Times examines the failure of leadership on the pandemic in the US.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/inside-trump-s-failure-the-rush-to-abandon-a-leadership-role-on-the-virus-20200720-p55doo.html
And now the Trump administration has been consulting the former government lawyer who wrote the legal justification for waterboarding on how the president might try to rule by decree.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/20/trump-john-yoo-lawyer-torture-waterboarding
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
David Rowe
Cathy Wilcox
Mark David
Peter Broelman
Alan Moir
A Mark Knight catch up
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
Matt Golding
John Spooner
From the US
A great reminder:
– 1 month ago today Trump held an indoor campaign rally in Tulsa with nary a mask in sight and his peeps removing stickers off chairs that would’ve enabled physical distancing.
– 2 months ago today Trump visited a Ford factory sans mask despite pleas from Michigan AG that he wear a mask when visiting. Trump retorted that he didn’t want to give the media the satisfaction of seeing him in a mask.
– 3 months ago today Trump said the US had “tremendous testing capability” to “contain outbreaks”. Back then the US had had 40,000 deaths.
– 4 months ago today Trump said testing was going well and there was a low incidence of death.
https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1285308839303290880
Thanks BK!
Gee who saw that one coming apart from almost everyone?! 😆
Interesting to see the detail today around the jobkeeper and jobseeker payment changes.
Will eligible casuals have their payments reduced below full time workers even if working the same hours ? It has to be remembered casualization of the workforce is a huge problem and the hard hit hospitality and tourism sectors h@ve the highest levels of cadualization. How will casuals be treated? How will the two tier system work ? Will casuals working 10 hours a fortnight get the same payment as casuals working 60 hours a fortnight or will there be a hourly rate ? Will casuals working 60 hours a fortnight receive less than full time workers working the same hours ?
Casuals have already been hit hard by Morrison with over one million excluded from jobkeeper. Will the new jobkeeper now make eligible casuals worse off than permanent workers on the same hours ?
Huge number of questions and that is even before we get to jobseeker.
Cheers.
doyley,
You left out one important question. How many employers will transfer and make their permanent employees casual? My guess is a massive number.
It is also interesting that Morrison has decided to bring forward the release of the jobkeeper/ jobseeker ch@nges from Thursday to today.
Thursday was going to be Josh F. big day on centre stage. It now seems he will be left with all the shit news to deliver while Scott takes centre stage and delivers the “ good” news re extension of jobkeeper and gets th3voats on the back for the ongoing government “ largeness”.
Too bad Josh.
‘fess,
Just finished listening to the latest Bulwark podcast. Whoa!
C@t:
How did your focus group go yesterday?
cat,
Spot on.
Thanks as usual BK.
Roll out the xenophobia!
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Newcastle currently 6℃ Expected top of 16℃
Barney
I haven’t seen the questions (obviously) but it would be extremely easy to do a little gentle push-polling on questions over China.
Morning all and thanks BK for the excellent roundup. The cartoons nail it. Looking at the polls there has never been a better time to be a sociopath.
Jobkeeper is merely a gift to employers in too many cases. Proposed energy and infrastructure spending is the same for gas and construction companies.
Some of the recent Adelaide freeway projects worked out at around a million dollars per job. I suspect the workers got a bit less than that. We need government stimulus that is targeted on things we need (renewables and electric transport) and focused on smaller scale projects that actually spend the money employing workers, not giving huge commissions to lawyers and financiers.
Let the corruption roll on. Good luck Victoria.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #768 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 6:03 am
LOL I wondered what their plan was now that the culture war line of attack on Andrews to reopen has backfired.
Confessions @ #749 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 7:18 am
The NSW Coalition government destroying koala habitat for development. Scott Morrison and his new laws will only accelerate the destruction.
Confessions @ #767 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:01 am
It’s on Thursday.
C@t
I expected Emelia to win MasterChef from about 3 weeks ago. :pats self on back:
lizzie @ #777 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:29 am
I didn’t expect Laura to win. I was heartbroken that Reynold lost on a dessert. 🙁
I think this is the correct article link:
https://www.lifehacker.com.au/2020/07/avoid-these-no-log-vpn-services-that-leaked-millions-of-users-data/
C@t
I think that was why he was so devastated. Over confidence did him in.
C@tmomma @ #774 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 6:29 am
Ta.
Reynold would not have been that competitive in a final against Laura or Emelia.
They have too much training and variety of savoury dishes and sweets.
Scientists discover volcanoes on Venus are still active
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-scientists-volcanoes-venus.html
lizzie @ #780 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:33 am
Yep, and I think the point was well made that he was fine doing his own complex desserts which he had war-gamed but when it came to doing someone else’s intricate recipe for a dessert, he faltered badly. Whereas that’s what Emilia does all the time. Follow recipes to a tee. Then she hits the ball cleanly for a hole in one.
Morning all
Thanks BK for today’s news
Geelong to be in lockdown by the end of the week i reckon.
The drezner podcast URL. Yes it’s devastating.
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/daniel-drezner-on-trumps-chris-wallace-interview-disaster
All instances of hyperinflation were caused by a combination of:
1. the productive capacity of the nation falling off a cliff because of severe turmoil – revolution, civil war, world war. Zimbabwe and Weimar Germany clearly fall into this category. Zimbabwe’s land redistribution policy caused a severe contraction in the amount of agricultural output. In an economy that is chiefly agrarian this is a massive problem. Germany had much of its industrial capacity wiped out in WW1, and then when French troops occupied the Ruhr Valley it was deprived of an additional 25% of its industrial capacity.
2. financial obligations denominated in something other than the nation’s own currency e.g. gold, a foreign currency. Weimar Germany illustrates this – it was crippled by massive reparations requirements that were denominated in gold (well, denominated in a currency called “gold marks”, which were pegged to gold via a gold standard and therefore required Germany to accumulate gold reserves)
3. limited food security, limited energy security
A key point: No instance of hyperinflation was caused by the national government deciding to spend too much currency. It has never happened like that. It is always a combination of the above issues.
Other point: HYPERINFLATION IS AN EXTREMELY RARE PHENOMENON
Australia hasn’t just lost a world war, hasn’t had much of its productive capacity destroyed, isn’t facing reparations requirements priced in gold or a foreign currency, and it has access to enough food and energy. So what do you think the probability of hyperinflation is in Australia?
Adam Baudt said last night, more”Jacinda Ardern, less Tump”. The Liberals would do well to look at how trump is going.
Shellbell
I do get surprised at the excitement over the frequent use of the same few ingredients.
Was Shane Tuck’s Suicide caused by the lock down? How many other suicides aren’t we hearing about that are caused by the economic and social damage of the lockdowns?
Mohanad Elshieky
@MohanadElshieky
·
5h
I can’t believe that the feds who have been kidnapping immigrants for the past 3 years are now *checks notes* kidnapping protestors
Nicholas
I wasn’t talking about facts, I am talking about why we believe paper can store value. The reality is, it depends on the commonwealth, it has nothing to do with individualism. Not a good look for the neo liberals.
Bucephalus @ #789 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 6:52 am
Being as insensitive as always!
frednk,
That last question from Chris Wallace to the Toddler-In-Chief was a car crash! His reply was basically, ‘Wah! I was picked on the whole time!’ 😯
Do you have a subscription to The Washington Post? If you do you should read this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/18/covid-pandemic-store-clerk-north-carolina/
The amount of crazy that walks through the door of the lady’s shop is gobsmacking and the way she is treated, shocking.
If you don’t have a sub I get a free one every month and I could gift it to you if you like? 🙂
Confessions:’LOL I wondered what their plan was now that the culture war line of attack on Andrews to reopen has backfired.’
The Libs here in Vic specialise in grizzling about Andrews. I thought it was a pathetic strategy, but you must do something when you have nothing to offer.
But I realised when I saw Karen of Brighton (daughter of Mathieson,a pub and gambling empire owner and wife of one of the Grollo construction empire scions), that grizzling appeals to their base.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #794 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:55 am
Liberals are truly venal. When suicides are used for political point scoring and judged to be more important in the scheme of things than someone’s grandparent or parent catching COVID-19 and dying. Just so fucking businesses can start raking in the cash money again. 😡
Okay, so if Victorian suicides are Dan Andrew’s fault, same goes for NSW I guess:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/venue-forced-to-chase-health-officials-to-confirm-covid-19-exposure-20200720-p55dq2.html
I mean, you never know how depressed those businessmen or their patrons might get at the slack behaviour of NSW Health. 😐
Is anyone reacting to the billions of debt now? Surpluses are so last century when there is a pandemic to survive.
PeeBee @ #795 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 6:58 am
Professional victims. It’s always someone else’s fault.