Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus

The Melbourne coronavirus takes its toll on the standing of the Andrews government, and a small amount of gloss comes off Scott Morrison’s still-impressive ratings.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research, which a fortnight ago published its first coronavirus-free poll since January, has naturally revived its interest in the subject. The poll finds 36% of respondents rating themselves very concerned about the virus, up from 25% when the question was last asked three weeks ago. The state breakdowns have it at 46% in Victoria, though New South Wales isn’t far behind at 42%.

The poll also finds approval of the federal government’s handling of the matter down from 70% when the question as last asked three weeks ago to 64%, while small sample breakdowns concerning state governments’ responses have the Victorian government’s favourable rating slumping from 65% to 49%. Below are charts recording the progress of these results since the pollster first asked the question in relation to the federal government in March and the state governments in April, although at this stage I only have “good” and not “poor” ratings from the latest poll. Keep in mind that the sample sizes for the Victorian results is only around 275.

The poll also features the pollster’s monthly (actually a bit longer than that on occasion, the previous result having been from May 28-31) leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 63% and up one on disapproval to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 44% and down two to 28%. The latter numbers are rather a lot different from Newspoll, whose poll a fortnight ago had Albanese on 42% for both approval and disapproval. Morrison holds a lead of 50-27 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 53-23 last time.

The BludgerTrack aggregates have been updated with these numbers. Essential Research should publish the full report for the poll later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s poor rating on COVID-19 is up four to 16%, while the Victorian government’s has doubled to 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,482 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus”

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  1. 5.6% is all the Greens need to know about Eden Monaro: Bandt did not connect with the farmers, the fishers, the foresters, small businesses, large businesses, the scientifically inclined, bong users, workers, or the unemployed. In fact it seems as if he did not connect with the LGBTIQ peeps either.

    5.6% + deflection is all the Greens want to do about Eden Monaro.

    Extreme lefties have convinced themselves that the only way to win an electorate which just recorded a Right primary vote of 51% is to move further to the …. left…
    uh huh
    McBain and Albanese did well but not well enough to indicate that Labor is going to pull back a swag of the regional seats needed to reliably form government.

  7. So I’m predicting a magnificent victory for Albanese in 2022 ….after he expresses political love and fortune to the cranks, the crackpots, climate deniers et al in regional NSW/Qld

  10. There seem to be a lot of people pushing the meme that the Black Lives Matter marches triggered the latest Virus outbreak. They were in the days following the marches but when nothing happended in the next few weeks they quietened down. Now they’re coming back.

    I thought that the BLM marches were that right message delivered the wrong way at the wrong time. They were a risk, like a football crowd, a packed disco (do they still have those?) or the cinema. However, no one who actually knows about public health or epidemology is making the link between the marches and the current outbreak. Good luck, perhaps. But lots of people apparently desparately want the link to be there. It would help shift blame onto class enemies.

  11. The question now is – if Biden wins off the back of reaching out to environmentalists, will Albanese reverse his reach out to the cranks, crackpots and denialists …?

  13. S777
    It is an on-balance thing.
    Ordinary day-to-day interactions with the Australian ‘justice’ system has, to date, killed far more Indigenous people than the Virus.
    Whether the BLM marches achieved any of their political objectives is moot, IMO.
    Perhaps the opposite?

  14. How many senators might the Greens lose at the next federal election if they emulate their 5.6% outcome in Eden Monaro?
    Bandt does not seem like the right person for the job.

  15. Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison:

    Gutted TAFE

    Destroyed 140,000 apprenticeships.

    Now fucking around with a penny ante crony capitalist lame arse ‘fix’ ripe for exploitation.

    Morrison: utterly unfit for getting Australia out of the Virus hole.

  16. Geoff Lemon
    Lemon
    @geofflemon
    ·
    11m
    Scott Morrison is getting his Job programs marketed by the guy who shot to fame for naming the McDonald’s menu

  17. Rex Douglas @ #1313 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    The question now is – if Biden wins off the back of reaching out to environmentalists, will Albanese reverse his reach out to the cranks, crackpots and denialists …?

    Probably not, because the two things aren’t comparable.

    A better question might be if support for LGBTIQ issues hurt Labor, as some have asserted, what response is being advocated? Is the assertion that Labor should abandon the LGBTIQ community because it hurts their vote in the regions? If so, isn’t that supremely unprincipled? Or if not, then what’s the remedy?

  19. Steve777
    The BLM protest march was 5 weeks ago, so, of course, if anyone had caught the virus on that march most likely they’d either be over it or dead by now.
    The fact that, despite the best efforts of the RW media, not a single such case was found, does not stop The Oz from fabricating a link to some cases in Victoria now.
    The ‘ confirmed link’ is, apparently, some people who attended the protest have now caught covid19, 5 weeks later.
    Words fail me.

  20. a r @ #1317 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 6:31 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1313 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    The question now is – if Biden wins off the back of reaching out to environmentalists, will Albanese reverse his reach out to the cranks, crackpots and denialists …?

    Probably not, because the two things aren’t comparable.

    A better question might be if support for LGBTIQ issues hurt Labor, as some have asserted, what response is being advocated? Is the assertion that Labor should abandon the LGBTIQ community because it hurts their vote in the regions? If so, isn’t that supremely unprincipled? Or if not, then what’s the remedy?

    Or maybe it’s just a talking point for vested interests to keep their issue to the forefront.

  21. ML
    One thing you can guarantee. The Liberal MSM will never change their attitude towards Labor, Unions, Asylum Seekers, Dole Bludgers,Black People,LGTBIQs, Greens, Enviromentalists and Scientists.

  22. One thing you can guarantee. The Liberal MSM will never change their attitude towards Labor, Unions, Asylum Seekers, Dole Bludgers,Black People,LGTBIQs, Greens, Enviromentalists and Scientists.

    Until it effects them financially. Then they will change.
    It’s all about the money.

  23. Steve Davis

    Hear hear.

    This in a country that the Palace letters have revealed how the Murdoch media in particular with the LNP regard all Labor government as illegitimate.

    A grave danger to our democracy.

  26. Maude Lynne @ #1316 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 6:37 pm

    Steve777
    The BLM protest march was 5 weeks ago, so, of course, if anyone had caught the virus on that march most likely they’d either be over it or dead by now.
    The fact that, despite the best efforts of the RW media, not a single such case was found, does not stop The Oz from fabricating a link to some cases in Victoria now.
    The ‘ confirmed link’ is, apparently, some people who attended the protest have now caught covid19, 5 weeks later.
    Words fail me.

    Clearly words also fail the Labor party.

  27. Maude @6:37.
    “The fact that, despite the best efforts of the RW media, not a single such case was found, does not stop The Oz from fabricating a link to some cases in Victoria now.”

    The Australian still pretends to be a quality newspaper. It has no more credibility that the far right bloggers who spread this rubbish. Or does the Australian get it’s news from ratbag bloggers? Fox News and the tabloids often do.

    Re my post @6:15 “But lots of people apparently desparately want the link to be there”, that isn’t quite right. They don’t care whether the link is there or not, they just want people to believe that there is.

  29. If Biden were to take the following Green plans to the POTUS election he would get thrashed by Trump.

    CLOSE DOWN:
    Beef feedlots
    Piggeries
    Poultry sheds
    Biofuel operations
    Native forestry industry
    Rodeos
    Camp drafts
    Dog racing
    Trots racing
    Jumps racing
    Live exports of beef
    Live exports of sheep
    Live exports of goats
    Circus animals
    Duck hunting
    Kennel breeding of dogs

    Rabbit hunting
    Kangaroo hunting
    Buffalo hunting
    Deer hunting
    Pig hunting
    Muttonbird harvesting
    Theme park animals
    Life exports of greyhounds
    All uranium mines
    Lucas Heights reactor/radiation medical production
    All uranium exports
    All coal mines
    All conventional gas production facilities
    All coal seam gas production facilities
    Deep sea bottom trawling
    All oil production facilities
    Beef farming
    Sheep farming
    Cotton industry (on current indications, might as well add the irrigated olive and almond industries because the chief thresholds for those industries are the same as those for the cotton industry).
    Warship manufacturing
    Fighter component manufacturing
    Infantry fighting vehicle manufacturing
    The Singapore Air training facility in Queensland
    The three joint spy bases
    Around a dozen major fleet, air and army bases
    All facilities that enable the deployment of nuclear weapons – whatever that means.

  30. Steve777

    Re my post @6:15 “But lots of people apparently desparately want the link to be there”, that isn’t quite right. They don’t care whether the link is there or not, they just want people to believe that there is.

    Summarises it perfectly.
    That’s how The Oz operates.

  31. Only thing we’ve got steve davis is our vote and perhaps a willingness to persuade others to vote the same. A million Sally McManus’s would help.

  33. Thats the only thing we have got and they would take that from us if they could.Too many punters still believe opinions in newspapers and TV unfortunately.

  37. Albanese’s seduction of regional Qld/NSW is going to be very interesting to watch…

    Environmentalists look away !

  38. 67,000 cases a day in Florida. 3.5 million have had or have virus. 41 states still have cases rising. Trumps relative says he should resign and is incapable of running the US.

  39. boerwar

    I’m starting to think you are from liberal-national party.

    Are you not concerned that along with Australia unemployment, the USA Unemployment (30-40 million), and others around the world is due to right wing fuck-wits?

  41. ‘Zerlo says:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 7:12 pm

    boerwar

    I’m starting to think…’

    Uh huh. What is your assessment of Xi’s impact on Chinese biodiversity, global biodiversity by way of imprts, and on the global environment more generally?

    9.4 Gigatonnes of CO2 emissions is a worry for genuine environmentalists.

  43. ‘steve davis says:
    Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 7:11 pm

    67,000 cases a day in Florida. 3.5 million have had or have virus. 41 states still have cases rising. Trumps relative says he should resign and is incapable of running the US.’

    The immediate critical issues seems to be whether there will be enough ICU beds to cope. I don’t know.

  46. The Inner Urbs, fastnesses of leaders such as Bandt, have the least original biodiversity. The hydrology is the most disturbed. The rate of soil loss far outstrips the rate of soil formation. The play zero role in sequestering CO2 or generating oxygen. They create vast mountains of waste.
    I look forward to the Greens explaining why they have failed to do anything real about Inner Urbs environments for the last 30 years.

  47. Albanese will be out in the regions with a big smile, dinner invitations and a big wallet for whoever’s interested. A man on the prowl…

  50. What happened to Bandt’s unfunded and uncosted promise to spend a couple of hundred billion dollars a month or so ago?
    Is that still on the table?
    What?

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