The Guardian reports that Essential Research, which a fortnight ago published its first coronavirus-free poll since January, has naturally revived its interest in the subject. The poll finds 36% of respondents rating themselves very concerned about the virus, up from 25% when the question was last asked three weeks ago. The state breakdowns have it at 46% in Victoria, though New South Wales isn’t far behind at 42%.
The poll also finds approval of the federal government’s handling of the matter down from 70% when the question as last asked three weeks ago to 64%, while small sample breakdowns concerning state governments’ responses have the Victorian government’s favourable rating slumping from 65% to 49%. Below are charts recording the progress of these results since the pollster first asked the question in relation to the federal government in March and the state governments in April, although at this stage I only have “good” and not “poor” ratings from the latest poll. Keep in mind that the sample sizes for the Victorian results is only around 275.
The poll also features the pollster’s monthly (actually a bit longer than that on occasion, the previous result having been from May 28-31) leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 63% and up one on disapproval to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 44% and down two to 28%. The latter numbers are rather a lot different from Newspoll, whose poll a fortnight ago had Albanese on 42% for both approval and disapproval. Morrison holds a lead of 50-27 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 53-23 last time.
The BludgerTrack aggregates have been updated with these numbers. Essential Research should publish the full report for the poll later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s poor rating on COVID-19 is up four to 16%, while the Victorian government’s has doubled to 26%.
Thanks William.
Poor effort by Essential and statistically insignificant when there is 275 people polled in a population of around 6.5m in Victoria as mentioned by WB.
With technology and the reach of devices across most of the community I don’t hold much with polling these days.
But then I’m not a phesphologist nor a statistician so unable to provide expert commentary… just an opinion and advice.
Might be time to reread Rowntree’s excellent work Statistics without tears from my uni days.
I doubt the Victorian Premier would be too bothered by such ‘noise’ … will be interesting to see if the fourth estate asks any questions about this today at the daily briefing.
The fourth estate are essentially ‘flat earthers’ so expecting anything beyond a denial of physics is unrealistic (pun intended).
Keep in mind that the sample sizes for the Victorian results is only around 275.
lol what a joke
Is it not unreasonable to expect with coronavirus cases surging in Victoria that people are going to sheet some degree of blame to the Victorian govt? I don’t think you’d need a large sample size to make that assumption.
How long till the corrupt foreign media controlled and owned libs/nats
Treat the pubic like fools and start to attack Qld premier Annastacia Palaszczuk for not closing the QLD border
I think that a lot of the negatives about Andrews’ handling of Covid-19 would be resentment about a second lockdown. Karvelas, for example, is very unhappy about the return to home schooling and I gather many mothers feel the same.
Anthony Albanese is on the march! Albeit slowly and cautiously. 🙂
The fourth estate will be following up Suttons admission to Raf that it is conceivable every case from the 2nd wave could be linked back to the quarantine debacle.
That story by Anthony Klan which was mentioned by Victoria in the last thread will be an interesting one to watch. Marise Payne and Scott Morrison authorising the payment of 100s of thousands of dollars to Huawei!?! Invoking the ‘Universities’ (their go to bogeyman it seems these days, hotbeds of small ‘l’ liberalism that they are! not), as their arse covering. I only have one question. Why were they doing it?
Frankly I think this story will be the more interesting one to watch today.
ICYMI, there’s a Palace Letters thread:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/07/14/palace-intrigue/
Due to be released at 11am.
Taylormade @ #8 Tuesday, July 14th, 2020 – 7:46 am
Yes! Send Serco, and all the other private security firms, packing! No more privatisation of what should be public services!
I imagine this sort of commentary will be on high rotation in the MSM for the next few days.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/leaked-emails-reveal-government-knew-of-problems-on-day-one-of-hotel-quarantine-20200713-p55bij.html
[The fourth estate will be following up Suttons admission to Raf that it is conceivable every case from the 2nd wave could be linked back to the quarantine debacle.]
Right or wrong, this obscures the lingering community transmission evident in Victoria in May and what that may reveal about potential deficiencies in tracing in that period.
We got lucky in almost eliminating the virus despite aiming for supression. Or is that unlucky? We exceeded our low ambitions and developed unwarranted confidence. It seems to have missed the cracks in our defences the first time around, or we were that little bit more disciplined the first time round.
Looks like we’re going to have to learn to change our behaviour the hard way. We don’t appear to have the patience or discipline, and this government is unwilling to properly support people to develop them (probably because it would require them rethink some deeply rooted ideologies). In fact the government is promoting impatience and ill discipline with their haste to get “back to normal”.
The choice is between protecting our health and so limiting the damage to the economy, or damaging both.
I don’t think today is going to be very enjoyable. Lots of strutting and attitude. Airing of old prejudices. Blame tossed around like a toddler with a box of cornflakes.
Busy as usual, then. 😉
Lizzie
Fran Kelly is a shrill and very nasty piece of work. An unpleasant and unlikeable person.
I used to have quite a bit of respect for her about a decade ago.
Not now.
RN’s version of a Neil Mitchell in Melbourne
However, I suspect people would rather find someone to blame. That’s much easier.
Wise words:
On Monday, Bass Coast Health chief executive Jan Child called for understanding as local cases increased.
“This is not the time for people to blame others or throw vitriol at each other over social media or in public,” she said.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/we-are-not-immune-empathy-call-as-cases-rise-in-regional-victoria-20200713-p55bl8.html
Resist the temptation to Kick-a-Vic!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/kick-a-vic-mentality-gets-short-shrift-from-ex-premiers-20200713-p55bjp.html
(I only put the picture up because, Steve Bracks. 🙂 )
Where’s BK? Must be a gargantuan Dawn Patrol! 😯
C@t
I threw a bit of my own blame in there so had to remove that quote, haha.
Just goes to show how easy it is.
Eight go mad in Arizona: how a lockdown experiment went horribly wrong
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/jul/13/spaceship-earth-arizona-biosphere-2-lockdown
Ted Bailleu! I’d completely forgotten about him.
C@t
But Napthine, as always, shows his lack of political judgement. This is not the time to pull Victoria down.
Fess
Very forgettable.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Yesterday NSW recorded more locally acquired coronavirus infections than cases in hotel quarantine for a second straight day, in a sign that the state has entered a precarious new phase of contagion.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-to-tighten-restrictions-as-covid-19-casula-cluster-rises-to-21-20200713-p55bo4.html
And a COVID-19 case has been traced to The Star casino in Pyrmont as health authorities race to contain clusters that threaten to break through containment measures.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-community-transmissions-rise-in-nsw-after-crossroads-hotel-cluster-20200713-p55bj1.html
Peter FitzSimons has written a good article praising Victorians and giving Tim Smith a real bollocking.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/good-on-you-victorians-we-salute-your-fortitude-20200713-p55blo.html
Paul Bongiorno says there is no vaccine for political leaders against the toxic pandemic.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/07/14/coronavirus-no-vaccine-for-political-leaders/
Four of Victoria’s five living ex-premiers have rallied to the defence of the state, warning that anti-Victorian sentiment has reached damaging levels.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/kick-a-vic-mentality-gets-short-shrift-from-ex-premiers-20200713-p55bjp.html
Phil Coorey writes that struggling businesses are being urged to think twice before signing up to a new JobKeeper because workers on the subsidy have been accruing annual leave, which they will be entitled to if let go. It has the potential to send them broke, he says.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/revamped-jobkeeper-could-send-firms-broke-20200713-p55bh5
Anna Patty reports that some workers are avoiding crowded public transport and taking a long walk to work instead.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/city-workers-walk-to-office-to-avoid-public-transport-20200712-p55bbx.html
According to Dana McCauley, Greg Hunt has backed a target of zero healthcare worker deaths from COVID-19, as a new outbreak at a Melbourne psychiatric facility pushed a further 60 workers into isolation after four staff members tested positive.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/health-minister-greg-hunt-backs-target-of-zero-healthcare-worker-deaths-20200713-p55blw.html
Jennifer Duke tells us that charities are bracing for another surge of unemployed households needing help to put food on the table after September if there isn’t a long-term increase in the dole.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/charities-brace-for-catastrophic-surge-as-welfare-supplement-due-to-end-20200713-p55bgv.html
To make jobseeker fit for purpose, its temporary rise should be permanent says Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/jul/14/to-make-jobseeker-fit-for-purpose-its-temporary-rise-should-be-permanent
Sally Whyte tells us what various charitable agencies are fearing in the event of JobSeeker cuts.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6831270/desperate-situation-services-warn-jobseeker-cut-could-increase-homelessness/?cs=14329#gsc.tab=0
Katharine Murphy examines the latest and rather uninteresting Essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/14/guardian-essential-poll-government-approval-takes-a-knock-as-anxiety-over-coronavirus-rises
Chris Bowen has branded COVIDSafe a $2m failure.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/covidsafe-app-a-2-million-failure-bowen-20200713-p55boq.html
The bank and tech giant are working together on an ambitious move to shift 1000 of NAB’s applications to the cloud in 1000 days.
https://www.afr.com/technology/nab-microsoft-unite-for-app-a-day-cloud-project-20200709-p55aiq
Daniel Hurst reports that a government-ordered inquiry into the funding of legal class actions descended into acrimony on its first day of hearings when the first witness from a Liberal party thinktank was accused of misquoting a federal judge and citing unreliable figures. Deb O’Neill dismembered him by the looks of it!
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/jul/13/liberal-thinktank-submission-on-class-actions-labelled-an-undergraduate-essay-that-would-fail
Christopher Knaus writes that the federal government is attempting to stop the auditor general giving evidence about a report critical of a $1.3bn arms deal, more than two years after it used extraordinary powers to suppress parts of his findings.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/13/coalition-trying-to-stop-auditor-general-giving-evidence-on-report-critical-of-arms-deal
Paul Sakkal reports that correspondence between government departments shows top Victorian bureaucrats were concerned about the role of security guards in the hotel quarantining program, requesting police be called in to replace them.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/leaked-emails-reveal-government-knew-of-problems-on-day-one-of-hotel-quarantine-20200713-p55bij.html
David Crowe says a new row over the republic is set to ignite as secret letters set to be released this morning will reveal the role of Buckingham Palace in the dismissal of the Whitlam government in 1975, with a key historian expecting the papers to expose decades of false claims.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/volcanic-repercussions-palace-letters-set-to-ignite-new-republic-debate-20200713-p55blg.html
Steve Evans looks at what the letters might reveal.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6830031/what-might-the-palace-letters-reveal/?cs=14329#gsc.tab=0
The ‘cancel culture’ war is really about old elites losing power in the social media age writes Nesrine Malik.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/13/cancel-culture-elites-power-social-media-age-online-mobs
In an op-ed for the Australian George Pell describes how he survived “hell on earth” in prison.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/george-pell-how-i-survived-hell-on-earth/news-story/a0efdb3c8abee991558790f942e121c7
Behind closed doors, the dark underbelly of domestic violence is thriving as more people are locked down at home, writes Anushka Britto.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/covid-19-lockdown-a-breeding-ground-for-domestic-abuse,14085
Peter Hannam writes that yesterday the bushfire royal commission pressed NSW officials on lessons learnt from previous disasters and queried why the incoming Resilience NSW boss, Shane Fitzsimmons, did not get a formal handover report.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/royal-commission-presses-officials-on-lack-of-briefings-insight-into-bushfires-20200713-p55bmw.html
Nick Toscano reports that Santos is exploring the potential to produce hydrogen out of natural gas at its operations in the Cooper Basin, becoming the latest gas giant to eye an expansion into the fuel that many believe is primed to play a crucial role in the world’s future energy mix.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/gas-giant-santos-studies-blue-hydrogen-expansion-20200713-p55bo2.html
A NSW Upper House Inquiry has indicated that koalas will be extinct before 2050, but relaxed environmental protections and ongoing destruction of habitat are causing their extinction right now, writes Sue Arnold.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/can-the-koala-survive-in-berejiklians-nsw,14096
Anne Davies reveals that the former NSW water minister Kevin Humphries has defended controversial legislation that effectively excludes some of the driest water years from figures used to calculate sustainable water allocations for irrigators, towns and the environment.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/13/former-nsw-water-minister-defends-exclusion-of-driest-years-from-sustainable-water-calculations
Andrew Tillett tells us that the navy’s $45 billion future frigate project has been added to a Defence Department watch list because of emerging concerns over its design. The frigate’s inclusion as a Project of Interest comes as the principal engineer overseeing the design work quit the department, with sources attributing it to frustration.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/frigates-added-to-defence-watch-list-of-troubled-projects-20200713-p55bi4
China has warned its citizens they could be arbitrarily searched and have their property seized in Australia, escalating its travel advice as tensions rise between the two countries. This is getting stupid!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/travel-with-caution-china-upgrades-advice-for-australia-20200713-p55bq6.html
Meanwhile Peter Hartcher explains the goings on of the spy agencies and security apparatus in China. It’s a bit of a worry.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/rundown-of-china-s-spy-agencies-will-make-uncomfortable-reading-for-some-20200713-p55bhs.html
Morrison’s latest $270 billion military funding“update” is a misplaced policy that antagonises China and misunderstands regional relations in the Asia-Pacific, writes Rashad Seedeen.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrisons-more-aggressive-military-stance-only-antagonises,14098
The leader of New Zealand’s opposition party, Todd Muller, has resigned after just 50 days in the job. Mueller ousted former leader Simon Bridges in May, but after a fortnight of scandals, Muller said he had realised he was not a good fit, saying the country needed an opposition leader who is “comfortable in the job”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/new-zealand-opposition-leader-todd-muller-resigns-just-weeks-before-election
Stephen Roach thinks the aggressive stimulus response to the pandemic will expose the domestic saving gap and cause a huge plunge in the value of the US dollar.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why-the-covid-currency-shock-will-be-made-in-america-20200713-p55bgu
Mixed messaging from governments has steered “too many countries” in the wrong direction to suppress transmission of the coronavirus, the World Health Organisation has warned.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/07/14/australia-coronavirus-second-surge-who-warning/
It seems that years of public health funding cuts have led to the humble fax machine becoming a choke point in efforts to contain Covid-19 in the US. There are lags of up to two weeks between testing and results notifications.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/choke-point-for-us-coronavirus-response-the-fax-machine-20200714-p55bqk.html
The role of medical journals is again in the spotlight after The Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine retracted studies that raised alarms about the safety of experimental Covid-19 treatments. Dr Maryanne Demasi reports.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/while-their-ads-are-prevalent-drug-companies-and-medical-journals-will-remain-uneasy-bedfellows/
The Trump administration is increasingly at war with Anthony Fauci, the federal government’s top public health expert, over the handling of the coronavirus crisis, as the US continues to report around 60,000 new cases a day.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/trump-administration-fauci-coronavirus-crisis
Donald Trump has made 20,000 false or misleading claims while in office, according to the Washington Post, which identified a “tsunami of untruths” emanating from the Oval Office.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/13/donald-trump-20000-false-or-misleading-claims
The UN special rapporteur on freedom of expression has accused the White House of mounting an “onslaught” against the media and referred to a negative “Trump effect” on global press freedom.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/13/press-freedom-trump-effect-un-special-rapporteur
Michaela Whitbourn, courtesy of an excoriating statement from a judge, nominates this lady for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/abysmal-arrogance-and-privilege-balmain-lawyer-ordered-to-pay-neighbour-300-000-20200706-p559d2.html
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
David Rowe
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
John Spooner
From the US
I thought John Cain was still alive and firing off Letter to the Editor from McCrae
I read a disturbing report yesterday that the immunity gained by recovered coronavirus patients is not long-lived- perhaps three months. This compares with the absence of acquired immunity for that other coronavirus group – the common cold.
If this proves accurate – then it will require a complete and permanent redesign of the economy from the world down to local level.
Restrictive rules on personal mobility.
Small enterprise instead of large.
Development of simplified devices (cars TV’s and much more) which are easily repairable, with standardised interchangeable spare parts.
Self reliance and self-sufficiency as primary economic values.
Local education rather than remote.
Decentralisation of many types of service supply.
Major changes to health services. A new evaluation of treatment priorities in hospitals and clinics.
Severe changes to tourism and vacations. Also for food services.
Small local sporting competitions instead of big league.
Local entertainment instead of big events and concerts.
Opportunities for transport of goods with autonomous (or nearly) vehicles.
All this will require a major rethink on power distribution in society, and on growth as an economic good. “Live simply so that all may simply live”
Taylormade
And every case in quarantine is linked back to where ?
The Coronavirus is a debacle. The quarantine is just one of many instances, having happened, with some more to come, that will test all.
A nation, the individual states, specific locations and the people of a nation are dealing with the pandemic in a manner indicative of a whole new set of unknowns.
Petty political point scoring is a poor reflection of some within this over-indulged nation with a negative net benefit.
The security at the quarantine locations is just another argument for legislation to make labour hire businesses illegal, and to prosecute those involved in this type of mordern day slavery.
I have nothing in particular against Fran Kelly but since around the time of last year’s Federal election I find I prefer the more or less straight news format of ABC News Radio.
“I think that a lot of the negatives about Andrews’ handling of Covid-19 would be resentment about a second lockdown. Karvelas, for example, is very unhappy about the return to home schooling and I gather many mothers feel the same.”
***
This would be a big part of it for sure, although there would be some blame in the numbers too. The couple of Victorians I’ve heard speak about having to go back into lockdown have made it pretty clear that the public mood is quite low down there. Understandable. We may be headed the same way here in NSW the way things are going.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/victorian-government-falls-foul-of-voters-as-virus-crisis-bites-20200713-p55bh3
Total copout from Julia Gillard on the question of the single parenting payment last night. In defending her decision to end the grandfathering provisions she endorsed the Howard Governments original decision. She clearly has had no interest in looking at any of the reports on the consequences of these two decisions, i.e people driven further into poverty and no hoped for increase in the workforce which she claimed was the reason for her decision.
Hannah Clarke who asked the question last night noted that the legislation was passed the same day that Gillard gave the misogyny speech. What a juxtaposition! Gillard quite rightly calling out misogyny directed at herself while simultaneously driving 80 thousand, mostly women, further into poverty.
John Cain passed on December 23, 2019.
Thanks BK.
DisplayName @ #21 Tuesday, July 14th, 2020 – 8:08 am
Too easy. It is the redoubt of fools and knaves.
Though I admit, it will take mighty restraint on my own part not to throw shade Gladys’ way, here in NSW. 😀
Mark this one #ETTD.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/13/trumps-rage-dr-fauci-just-boomeranged-back-him/
nath,
And your, and Hannah’s arguments are in tatters as you look at how far Hannah has been able to go in life despite the changes.
Nath – don’t pretend you care about poverty.
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, July 14, 2020 at 8:33 am
nath,
And your, and Hannah’s arguments are in tatters as you look at how far Hannah has been able to go in life despite the changes.
________________________
She grew up before the changes were made clearly. Your argument makes no sense.
Steve777says:
Tuesday, July 14, 2020 at 8:33 am
Nath – don’t pretend you care about poverty.
__________________
On the contrary, poverty in Australia is my central concern, always has been.
Advocates of welfare dependency are advocating entrenched and often generational poverty.
People need to be encouraged to find ways to take control of their lives and not just look to Government hand outs as a way of life.
Contrast the results of Howard and Gillards’ handiwork with that of Hawke:
“Among Hawke’s greatest social policy achievements was his success in reducing poverty among Australian children, lifting the unemployment payment, the establishment of today’s Medicare scheme, the creation of ATSIC and significant investments in public housing and child care.
“Bob Hawke’s famous commitment to end child poverty led to an extraordinary reduction in child poverty by 30%, transforming so many young lives.
“In 1987, the Hawke Government delivered a comprehensive child poverty reform package that increased assistance for low-income families and benchmarked income support payments to the cost of children. The package also put in place housing, education, training, childcare and tax reforms to help low-income families. This package reduced child poverty by an extraordinary 30 per cent.
https://www.acoss.org.au/media_release/acoss-tribute-to-bob-hawke/
Greensborough Growlersays:
Tuesday, July 14, 2020 at 8:46 am
Advocates of welfare dependency are advocating entrenched and often generational poverty.
People need to be encouraged to find ways to take control of their lives and not just look to Government hand outs as a way of life.
__________
You could be a IPA spokesman with that rubbish.
Right now, easing child care costs would do most to relieve female employment problems, but the LNP attitude to education is not encouraging.
Listening to Parnell McGuiness on The Drum last night (and I am no fan of hers), I was highly amused to hear of her “innovative” ideas for reforming child care. She pictured what was essentially a return to the localised, small scale and often home based system of the seventies, rather than the privatised (and govt subsidised) giants of today. Dutton would never allow it.
You’re just a poverty enabler. Be proud of your status.
Just giving people free money without creating incentives to work and meaningfully take control of their life is a recipe for entrenching poverty.
Of course steve777 only Labor hacks have compassion and empathy for others.
Liberals spend more money on Private schooling than they do public schooling.