Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus

The Melbourne coronavirus takes its toll on the standing of the Andrews government, and a small amount of gloss comes off Scott Morrison’s still-impressive ratings.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research, which a fortnight ago published its first coronavirus-free poll since January, has naturally revived its interest in the subject. The poll finds 36% of respondents rating themselves very concerned about the virus, up from 25% when the question was last asked three weeks ago. The state breakdowns have it at 46% in Victoria, though New South Wales isn’t far behind at 42%.

The poll also finds approval of the federal government’s handling of the matter down from 70% when the question as last asked three weeks ago to 64%, while small sample breakdowns concerning state governments’ responses have the Victorian government’s favourable rating slumping from 65% to 49%. Below are charts recording the progress of these results since the pollster first asked the question in relation to the federal government in March and the state governments in April, although at this stage I only have “good” and not “poor” ratings from the latest poll. Keep in mind that the sample sizes for the Victorian results is only around 275.

The poll also features the pollster’s monthly (actually a bit longer than that on occasion, the previous result having been from May 28-31) leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 63% and up one on disapproval to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 44% and down two to 28%. The latter numbers are rather a lot different from Newspoll, whose poll a fortnight ago had Albanese on 42% for both approval and disapproval. Morrison holds a lead of 50-27 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 53-23 last time.

The BludgerTrack aggregates have been updated with these numbers. Essential Research should publish the full report for the poll later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s poor rating on COVID-19 is up four to 16%, while the Victorian government’s has doubled to 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,481 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and the return of coronavirus”

  1. a r @ #1443 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 8:02 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1435 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 9:33 pm

    That’s an amazing result.

    The way I read those numbers we’re still looking at around a ~2.5ppm increase each year (the 2020 number is maybe 10% better than expected from the prior trend)? The final interval is one year, the preceding ones are ~10 years.

    I doubt it.

    As I said there is a significant lag in the figures we see in these southern air flows as most of the CO2 has to feed down from the areas where it is created which takes considerable time.

    So as I said, I think we will see the figure begin to fall in the near future.

    Of course as economies start to recover, this trend will start to unfortunately reverse, but it’s interesting seeing the effect and climatologist will be very interested in comparing what we see with their recovery models.

  2. EVERALD COMPTON
    @EVERALDATLARGE

    Growing criticism of
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    is unfair & hysterical. He is giving courageous leadership in tough situation & is honest enough to admit mistakes. #Victoria will get #Covid19 under control soon. Keep up the good work Dan. The light at end of tunnel is getting brighter.

  3. I think SA is on the right track energywise. Seems to work OK, got no complaints myself. Those that do tend not to be from around here.
    There are solar grids being built next to existing power stations, which seems to make sense to me. I drove to Port Wakefield recently and there is one being built there. My only thought was it might be underwater in ten years given it’s location.
    But we are local people.

  4. Barney in TB,
    I believe that, due to a likely everlasting effect on at least air travel, not to mention the Renewables expansion, that levels of CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to fall.

    Maybe COVID-19 was Nature’s way of getting us to take Global Heating seriously?

  5. Barney, a few posts upstream:

    “Jun 2020: 409.51 ppm
    Jun 2019: 407.23 ppm
    Jun 2010: 385.78 ppm
    Jun 2000: 366.77 ppm
    Jun 1980: 336.53 ppm”

    A 20 yr gap, then 10, then 9, then 1? That’s no way to present data. A 23.73 ppm rise over the last 10 years and a 2.28 ppm rise over the last year say pretty much the same thing: that CO2 levels are increasing at a bit over 2 ppm/yr and have been for a while. That whole data set (from that CSIRO site in the link) has 530 data points… plenty to crunch.

  6. Addendum to my previous.

    Sorry a r, I see what your saying, I miss read the years.

    It’s still a very significant fall, but certainly not as much as my previous posts made out.

    My falling assertion probably is far too optimistic, but it’s fascinating none the less and it will be interesting how it plays out. 🙂

  7. Bird of paradox (AnonBlock)
    Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 8:20 pm
    Comment #1454

    Yep, spotted my error now, see my post below.

  8. It’s a low lying area C@t, saltbush already, top of St Vincent Gulf so tidal factors matter. If the sea rises 50cm-1m, a king tide would flood it. Same sort of thing as at the proof range. The army would fire weapons at high tide and retrieve the projectiles at low tide. That’s nearby. Sea want’s to come, nothing to stop it.

  9. Further to my earlier post about the CIA, CDC, here is the latest SCOOP:

    Hansi Lo Wang
    @hansilowang
    ·
    21h
    SCOOP: @NPR
    has now confirmed 4 states (Iowa, South Carolina, South Dakota, Nebraska) have agreed to share their state driver’s license & state ID info to help Trump admin efforts to figure out the US citizenship status of every adult living in the country
    https://www.npr.org/2020/07/14/890798378/south-dakota-is-sharing-drivers-license-info-to-help-find-out-who-s-a-citizen

    WHO, WHEN, HOW, AND WHY IS Donald Trump wanting every single bit of information of US Citizens?

  10. bill @ #1460 Thursday, July 16th, 2020 – 10:28 pm

    It’s a low lying area C@t, saltbush already, top of St Vincent Gulf so tidal factors matter. If the sea rises 50cm-1m, a king tide would flood it. Same sort of thing as at the proof range. The army would fire weapons at high tide and retrieve the projectiles at low tide. That’s nearby. Sea want’s to come, nothing to stop it.

    Finally, the Inland Sea!

  11. Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    It’s happening. Statement from Intelligence and Security Committee:
    “The Committee has unanimously agreed this morning that it will publish the Report on Russia prepared by its predecessor before the house rises for the summer recess. There will be no further comment.”
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/russia-interference-report-published-committee_uk_5f1023e5c5b619afc3fd9115?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvL25KRkk2TUxEdFU_YW1wPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHaBo5HpVy0KdbwVWSSVAHg5K80Vha3jk76wvnEn9EyQhLiAeg1Kuza5iGQwnUcxWySgHLkcaBqqXacmu45li02kqk4HPUI0V9X8AQFuYNdaXluT9JMZPwmCbB8Ixj1HsUbnvMKkuzJ1r1-3Ck7uQmIjyHqfRfNAfryCAjFW_gDT

  12. C

    You are going to look very very foolish as Trump attacks Biden for being against windows as he talks about Climate Change and The Green New Deal. See Trumps campaign event from the White House.

    Unlike here in the US science is still supported by enough journalists to call out the lies.

    The campaign is going to be very embarrassing for the LNP and the Australian media.

    Your claims about the Greens is doing you no good at all.

    Despite your attempts to say otherwise the Greens are not extremists.

    The fact the Greens gave supply to Gillard proves your extremism.

  13. ”Others can make their minds up for themselves, all I know is things are changing, and they are changing now.”

    And have been for years, not for the better…

  14. And have been for years, not for the better…

    The thing that really irritates me is why lemmings don’t know their fate yet do it anyway.

  15. While people are talking about climate change and energy policy, I highlight this story: gas producers simply cannot sell their product right now.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/sailing-around-in-circles-lng-tankers-idle-at-sea-as-buyers-delay-cargoes-20200716-p55cou.html

    The government’s recent spruiking of a gas and possible hydrogen economy is designed to save gas investors with public money. It has nothing to do with saving the planet or climate. We now know that when gas leakage and flaring are included, gas is almost as heavily polluting as coal.

  16. Phillip Lodge
    @phlogga
    ·
    5h
    An associate claims inside info on the Rydges Hotel quarantine fiasco. Reckons hardly any contact with tourist took place or was required. Anyone claiming a security guard was “sleeping” with anyone is “dreaming”. One bloke didn’t know he had covid and took it to work. Could be.

  17. lizzie @ #1475 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 6:41 am

    Phillip Lodge
    @phlogga
    ·
    5h
    An associate claims inside info on the Rydges Hotel quarantine fiasco. Reckons hardly any contact with tourist took place or was required. Anyone claiming a security guard was “sleeping” with anyone is “dreaming”. One bloke didn’t know he had covid and took it to work. Could be.

    So, an urban myth has been generated to besmirch Dan Andrews!?! Well, we know nath has certainly promoted the hell out of it here and the News Corpse papers, SAD, The Age and shock jock radio, have as well.

    Suffice to say, it wouldn’t surprise me if the above was true. That actually sounds plausible as an explanation.

  18. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-17/coronavirus-melbourne-doctor-suppression-or-elimination/12462518

    If suppression has failed in Victoria, one of the most cautious states, it can fail anywhere.

    From my own perspective — widely shared by my colleagues — suppression cannot win. Coexisting with COVID-19 means lives lost, repeated lockdown and gripping uncertainty, which will take a giant toll on our collective mental health and undermine the confidence necessary for economic recovery.

    Suppression has failed because it underestimates this virus, it overestimates our ability to control it, and it fundamentally misunderstands human nature.

    We face a tough few months ahead in Victoria. We will get through it together. But we cannot do this again and again, and that’s what a suppression strategy demands of us.

    Businesses will open and close, people will regain and lose their jobs. And each time we visit our elderly or vulnerable loved ones we will think: Can I justify the risk, could I infect them?

    Now is the time to reassess our strategy. To ask, do we open prematurely and risk this happening again? Or do we grit our teeth and lock down until we have eliminated the virus?

    For nations where COVID-19 has killed thousands, elimination is no longer an option. But, as evidenced in New Zealand and other parts of Australia, we still have that chance.

    Advocates of suppression present us with a false dichotomy between suppression and elimination. Elimination doesn’t mean we can go back to our pre-COVID lives. We must still maintain all of the same safeguards of a suppression strategy.

    But, if we aim to eliminate the virus first, we can save lives, we can save jobs and we can all sleep easier at night.

    Aaron Bloch is an infectious diseases and general medicine doctor at a Melbourne metropolitan hospital.

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