Assorted developments from here and the near abroad:
• Roy Morgan has made one of its arbitrarily timed drops of its federal voting intention polling, which it conducts weekly but usually keeps to itself. This one has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, which based on the accompanying chart would appear to be its lowest point since the government’s coronavirus bounce. The primary votes are Coalition 42.5%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 10.5% and One Nation 4%. The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2593.
• Greg Brown of The Australian ($) reports the alliance in Victorian Labor between the Industrial Left and much of the Right is set to survive the demise of Adem Somyurek, who was generally credited with welding it together. This is due to a shared concern to prevent the Socialist Left gaining advantage from the present disarray, and the Industrial Left’s determination to secure the new federal seat shortly to be created in Victoria. However, the report quotes an unidentified Labor skeptic saying such manoeuvres are redundant since the national executive’s three-year takeover of the state branch means they are “not going to have a vote in anything”.
• In a review of Victorian Labor’s increasingly complicated factional terrain, Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review ($) notes party convention dictates that the national executive allocates seats to each faction after disruptive redistributions, to whom it then falls to fill them through internal ballots. However, a less messy option under the circumstances would simply be to guarantee the preselections of all sitting members. The most likely beneficiary would be Senator Kim Carr, who at 64 and after nearly three decades in the Senate would otherwise have to reckon with “a younger generation of left-wing faction operators who want to replace him”.
• With New Zealand’s election less than three months, I will henceforth be making note here of poll results from that country, which come by at a rate of one or two a month. The latest is from Colmar Brunton for 1 News, one of three poll series that reports with any regularity, together with Reid Research for Newshub and Roy Morgan for reasons of its own. After all three showed an astonishing blowout in favour of Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government last month, the latest result finds a substantial correction with Labour down nine to 50% and National down up by the same amount to 38%. Between the two polls, the National Party ditched its leader and Health Minister David Clark blotted the government’s coronavirus copybook by humiliating the country’s chief medical officer at a press conference. With minor parties needing to either clear a 5% national vote threshold or win a constituency seat to qualify for a share of seats proportionate to their vote, the poll finds the Greens up one to 6%, ACT New Zealand up a point to 3% and New Zealand First down one to 2%. ACT New Zealand should be safe thanks to party leader David Seymour’s hold on the seat of Epsom, but New Zealand First would rely on the long shot of one-time Labour MP Shane Jones poaching the seat of Northland, which party leader Winston Peters failed to carry in 2017.
nath @ #744 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 12:43 pm
Go right ahead and choose a venal or dopey Liberal, be my guest. At least the Liberals in NSW are smart enough not to say dumb shit like that. Except for David Elliott. 🙂
Bernie Bros Bait.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-promises-to-release-campaign-diversity-data/2020/06/27/9146cc84-b8b9-11ea-a8da-693df3d7674a_story.html
Let’s go with “motley” for people of varied colour :-P.
There is the usual chicken-egg situation that arises in the moral, political, social and economic vacuums created by conquest, colonial illegitimacy, disempowerment, fragmentation, and a couple of centuries of cultural genocide. How can ANY consultation process ever be legitimate because the process of setting up the consultation process IS by definition similarly illegitimate?
This is a ripper double bind for racist white sumpremacists – whether they are simple racists or more complex ideological warriors acting righteously on behalf of their Indigenous victims.
IMO, Indigenous people can have perfectly valid reasons for either supporting the Call or NOT supporting the Call. This is one of the double binds of being conquered and colonized.
All these tend to disable Indigenous initiatives.
All these tend to enable the backers of the status quo.
All these tend to enable various ideological whitefellas.
As we have seen in numerous Bludger posts already today.
Given the Double Bind, there can be no consensus. ‘Consensus’ is the sort of false test that can be used to help kill off anything at all. There is no consensus so lets do nothing.
In the end, there are two ways of breaking the Double Bind. The first is to resist indefinitely. Only another two centuries to go, eh? The second is to get a Makarrata process, a Voice, and a place in the Constitution.
Setting permanent resistance aside, the Double Bind can only be broken by a circuit breaker that necessarily embodies elements of illegitimacy, compromise and Indigenous dissent.
The realities are these.
1. Non-Indigenous people hold all of the cards. They won.
2. No resolution will ever have ANY sticking power unless it is enshrined in the body of the Constitution. IMO, the Preamble can go fuck itself.
3. Pending any general resolution of any kind, ANY consultation process lacks legitimacy in many ways. The results of ANY process will be subject to cries of illegitimacy.
The Call from the Heart consultation process was not limited to a bunch of Nicholas’ pet class enemies. Notice, in passing, that Nicholas took the opportunity to insult the overwhelming majority of the Indigenous leadership in one go. Hanson could not have done better! Nicholas’ attempt to tear it down is a classic example of whitefellas tearing down Indigenous people. The bastards generally make some sort of play of being righteous about it. They do it on behalf of Indigenous people. But they actually help gut Indigenous people.
The people who crafted the Call from the Heart aimed for three outcomes: a Makarrata process, an Indigenous voice, and a place in the body of the Constitution. These were all about legitimizing a set of mutually agreed- frameworks so that the next wave of deals could be sorted out – with real legitimacy.
Who are the wreckers? Not the Indigenous people who are trying to sort a way through a bastard of a set of tangles.
The real wreckers are whitefellas from the extreme Left and the extreme Right.
https://www.internationaltowers.com/whatson/uluru-statement-from-the-heart
DisplayName @ #739 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 11:07 am
Nah, motley has too many negative connotations,
I’d go with “kaleidoscope”! 🙂
Are we talking preambles to the constitution again?
Great- let’s be creative
I think there is none better than that of the Irish Republic:
In the Name of the Most Holy Trinity, from Whom is all authority and to Whom, as our final end, all actions both of men and States must be referred,
We, the people of Éire,
Humbly acknowledging all our obligations to our Divine Lord, Jesus Christ, Who sustained our fathers through centuries of trial,
Gratefully remembering their heroic and unremitting struggle to regain the rightful independence of our Nation,
And seeking to promote the common good, with due observance of Prudence, Justice and Charity, so that the dignity and freedom of the individual may be assured, true social order attained, the unity of our country restored, and concord established with other nations,
Do hereby adopt, enact, and give to ourselves this Constitution.
I have a funny feeling DeValera may have written this
sprocket_ @ #735 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 12:51 pm
Given her day job, Bram would have been a more appropriate moniker!
“ AE
I do apologise for simply addressing your out-of-date understanding as to what Acoss and the Greens are saying wrt to level of Newstart aka Jobseeker. What a shockingly heinous crime.
I do understand your constant need to address me using a condescending pejorative.”
Ah, lil’ Green pony. ScoMo has brought Jen and the kids a big bag of carrots for you to chew on while they pat. Mind the (anti-labor) colic though: its a killer.
Lincoln project have already done an advert about Traitor Don
Ouch. Me thinks Don needs to seek asylum in another country.
https://youtu.be/kiDkTOKI7Ro
Vic:
Rick Wilson hinted that an advert was coming on the bounty stuff. As usual they don’t disappoint 😀
Confessions
“Thirty-five percent of full-time Biden staff are people of color, according to his campaign, and 53 percent are women. Five percent of the staff opted not to specify a race.”
—————
Race?
More importantly, what are their “Star Signs”?
Barney
It’s nice, don’t get me wrong, but it has too many syllables. How about medley? Jumble? Hodgepodge?
Rainbow.
NE Qld
The LGBTetc.etc.etc.etc+ peeps have a lock on that at the moment.
I can just imagine what the next ‘The New Abnormal’ podcast will be like!
DisplayName @ #746 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 11:44 am
That’s the point.
That way the RWFWs won’t be able to use it! 🙂
Historyintime @ #738 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 12:38 pm
Wait till Scrooter finds a way of pinning the whole economic catastrophe on Albo….and the plague….and Robodebt……….not as fanciful as it sounds.
The Racist Right already have a set of terms to hand.
A favourite formulation is ‘black, white or brindle.’
Using a dog meme is cute, no?
There is a whole suite of them.
You don’t like ‘brindle’? How about ‘half-breed’?
And so and so forth.
Fess
That is going to hit Trumpolini and the GOP where it hurts
OC,
NSW gov’t site https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx
reports three new cases this week of unknown origin, and two last week.
From the gov’t map,
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/recent-case-updates.aspx
current cases of unknown origin are:
Sutherland Shire: 2
Camden: 1
Shellharbour: 1
Penrith: 1
Woollahra: 1
Lane Cove: 1
The fact they are of unknown origin worries me. Clearly they came from somewhere.
The fact they are not clustered in one location also bothers me. It means there are going to be other people with the virus who may be asymptomatic or in denial.
Testing numbers are in decline (down by 13% from last week) yet case numbers have increased.
Tell me why I should not be worried.
Young woman strongly rebuts the dangers of wearing a mask in public.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1277048726314536964
Greensborough Growler @ #755 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 12:03 pm
She’ll have a bigger breathing problem if she catches the virus.
As I keep saying, what Trump does is a feature not a bug.
Tea Pain
@TeaPainUSA
·
1h
Holy Crapola!
Quote Tweet
Richard Hine
@richardhine
· 13h
BREAKING: #60Minutes investigation reveals Trump knowingly allowed flawed #COVID19 antibody tests to circulate, leading to inaccurate data about virus spread, creating data to support re-openings, and potentially causing thousands more preventable deaths. https://cbsnews.com/news/federal-officials-allowed-flawed-covid-19-antibody-tests-2020-06-25/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7d&linkId=92064279
Show this thread
Finally caught up with Jonathon Pie. “Permaoffended woke twats ” 😆
It has only taken 3.5 years, but the Trump shit show may be ending soon. The finale looks to be a blinder
Boerwar
I struggle to understand what Australia fears so much that it refuses to concede anything.
Someone should ask the Coalition that. What are they afraid of?
You should be worried but the NSW situation has a number of positive features compared to Victoria
The total community cases in NSW is approximately 24 in the last 3 months compared to 40+/ day in Victoria. Further analysis of the numbers done by these lovely people
https://www.covid19data.com.au/
indicates that the community cases have a significant number of false positives and this is confirmed by the weekly NSW reports which are on the net but not included in the daily press release.
Testing in NSW varies but the last 2 days have been records with a total of nearly 42k
Extensive contact tracking of the community cases has not exposed clusters – particularly heartening as all but 1 of the 7 cases over the last 3 weeks were school related
In comparison to Victoria, NSW is under better control but it would only take 1 or 2 cases from Victoria for control to be lost
Andrews was asked about the effect of Ramadan on the Victorian surge. If it caused issues in Victoria I would expect the same in NSW. Fortunately it is now a month since Eid and any effect would be apparent
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #758 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 2:05 pm
I think that was her point!
Victoria @ #771 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 2:10 pm
Are. You. Kidding. Me!?!
Yep.
Angry Staffer’s Tweets
Angry Staffer
@AngrierWHStaff
·
4h
Indeed.
Press Sec is saying Trump and Pence weren’t briefed on Russians taking out bounties on United States soldiers.
There’s zero chance that’s true.
Quote Tweet
schinke73
@schinke73
· 4h
Replying to @AngrierWHStaff
They are trying to lie? Im sorry stupid question
Angry Staffer
@AngrierWHStaff
·
4h
Also our allies are confirming the intel sooo this lie won’t last long
Angry Staffer
@AngrierWHStaff
·
4h
If you think Trump, the NSC, and at least the principals of every relevant agency weren’t briefed on the GRU taking out bounties on American soldiers, I have a brand-spankin-new stock of Lysol inhalers with detachable UV lights to sell you.
C@t
My advice to Trump is to seek asylum in another country such as Russia, UAE, Israel or even Turkey.
What did John Bolton know about the Russian bounties and when did he know it? Surely he was in his position as NSA while this was going on? What about the current and former Defence Secretaries?
nath @ #741 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:38 am
There was a massive amount of pressure from #ScottyfromMarketing and the low life scum in his party trying to make political points from people dying in a pandemic. I think the experts agree Victoria has done little wrong, except perhaps listen to much to the liar from the shire and the low lives. I’m not kidding those Tim guys have to be the most disgusting human beings in Australia they way they’ve carried on they make Trump look like an intelligent caring person in comparison.
And still Mitch McConnell and his colleagues in Congress sit silent.
Victoria @ #779 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 12:24 pm
North Korea!
#bromance
Victoria @ #779 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 2:24 pm
I would not advise Russia, his fat backside is too big a target for their snipers who wouldn’t want any more inconvenient truths to come out. 🙂
Vic, what I’m wondering is, who leaked this information about the bounties to the American media?
Btw
The location hotspot map is based on postcode of residence rather than place of infection (which is unknown)
The case reported in Camden on 22/6 was declared a false positive in the press release of 25/6 but it is still on the map. Meaning, even on press release figures, there were 4 in the last 2 weeks and 7 in the Last 28 days. The Covid19data people’s numbers make it look closer to zero..
Fess
The bromance has soured. Dont he surprised if North Korea do another stupid missile launch
Especially as dear sister is taking more control of the country. She wants to put her stamp on the place. What better way to do it.v
WeWantPaul @ #781 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 2:25 pm
Flogs, the both of them!
Murdoch tried to buy The New York Times, didn’t he?
C@t
Whichever group it was, it appears they have had enough of his treason
Trump is not going to get a library named after him.
Vic:
The bromance has soured? Jeez everything Trump touches really does die 😆
Oakeshott Country
How long do you think it will be before we can see whether Victoria has it under control after a brief spike or set for a large outbreak ?
Fess
The rats are jumping off the Trump sinking ship
Pence is still planning his trip to Dallas where he’s speaking at some church gig. Why on earth is he insisting on travelling to Texas at a time their coronavirus cases are skyrocketing through the roof?!
The next 10 days will be vital but as this has already been going on for 2 weeks and worsening daily The horse may have bolted.
I think Andrews should seriously consider returning to stage 3 now and the border should close.
C@tmomma
Suspicion should be raised by the weaselly words and phrases used in the NYT. You should be asking cui bono from the story. Who benefits are those who think the US should remain in Afghanistan. Now who would they be ?
Vic:
Either rats are leaking or officials don’t trust Team Trump with sensitive national security intelligence briefs.
Confessions @ #782 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 2:36 pm
Polling is not very good atm.