Weekend miscellany: Morgan, Victorian Labor and latest New Zealand poll

Polls show a tight race in Australia and a rather less tight one in New Zealand; meanwhile, Victorian Labor’s factional players wonder what to do next.

Assorted developments from here and the near abroad:

• Roy Morgan has made one of its arbitrarily timed drops of its federal voting intention polling, which it conducts weekly but usually keeps to itself. This one has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, which based on the accompanying chart would appear to be its lowest point since the government’s coronavirus bounce. The primary votes are Coalition 42.5%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 10.5% and One Nation 4%. The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2593.

Greg Brown of The Australian ($) reports the alliance in Victorian Labor between the Industrial Left and much of the Right is set to survive the demise of Adem Somyurek, who was generally credited with welding it together. This is due to a shared concern to prevent the Socialist Left gaining advantage from the present disarray, and the Industrial Left’s determination to secure the new federal seat shortly to be created in Victoria. However, the report quotes an unidentified Labor skeptic saying such manoeuvres are redundant since the national executive’s three-year takeover of the state branch means they are “not going to have a vote in anything”.

• In a review of Victorian Labor’s increasingly complicated factional terrain, Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review ($) notes party convention dictates that the national executive allocates seats to each faction after disruptive redistributions, to whom it then falls to fill them through internal ballots. However, a less messy option under the circumstances would simply be to guarantee the preselections of all sitting members. The most likely beneficiary would be Senator Kim Carr, who at 64 and after nearly three decades in the Senate would otherwise have to reckon with “a younger generation of left-wing faction operators who want to replace him”.

• With New Zealand’s election less than three months, I will henceforth be making note here of poll results from that country, which come by at a rate of one or two a month. The latest is from Colmar Brunton for 1 News, one of three poll series that reports with any regularity, together with Reid Research for Newshub and Roy Morgan for reasons of its own. After all three showed an astonishing blowout in favour of Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government last month, the latest result finds a substantial correction with Labour down nine to 50% and National down up by the same amount to 38%. Between the two polls, the National Party ditched its leader and Health Minister David Clark blotted the government’s coronavirus copybook by humiliating the country’s chief medical officer at a press conference. With minor parties needing to either clear a 5% national vote threshold or win a constituency seat to qualify for a share of seats proportionate to their vote, the poll finds the Greens up one to 6%, ACT New Zealand up a point to 3% and New Zealand First down one to 2%. ACT New Zealand should be safe thanks to party leader David Seymour’s hold on the seat of Epsom, but New Zealand First would rely on the long shot of one-time Labour MP Shane Jones poaching the seat of Northland, which party leader Winston Peters failed to carry in 2017.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Morgan, Victorian Labor and latest New Zealand poll”

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  1. Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson

    BREAKING: #Florida posts 8,942 new #coronavirus cases–shattering its prior single-day record of 5,508 set 2 days ago.

    #Florida is a #COVID19 hot zone.

  2. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott rolled back some reopening plans and Florida reported a nearly 80% increase in daily coronavirus cases, after the U.S. marked a daily record of nearly 40,000 new infections Thursday.

  3. phoenixRED: “#Florida is a #COVID19 hot zone.”

    Looking around the world, Brazil still seems to be getting steadily worse, as do India and South Africa, among others. Russia is turning the situation around slowly.

    France has recorded a big spike (from an average of less than 500 new cases per day over recent days to 1500 overnight), but the Worldometer site claims this is more to do with the updating of past statistics than with a surge in new cases.

    Projecting forward by a few months, I reckon the US will eventually bring the virus under control, simply because they have the resources to do so. But it’s becoming difficult to envisage how India and most countries in Africa and South America are going to be able to effectively suppress their outbreaks before 2021 or even perhaps 2022, short of a vaccine becoming available.

  4. PS

    Florida, like the recent Bournemouth experience – and even some of what was happening on Australian beaches in autumn – indicates that there is a propensity by many people to take undue risks at the beach.

    There was a strong belief among my grandparents’ generation that alternating between baking in the sun and swimming in the ocean was an incredibly healthy thing to do and would cure almost any conceivable illness. Even I find that, while the rational part of my brain knows that this belief is totally silly, it’s still there in my unconscious and, every time I get into the ocean in a warm environment (ie, definitely not Tasmania), I feel this strong sense of health and well-being come over me.

    I’m sure this is familiar to many of you, but, let’s face it, right now it’s an unhelpful fantasy which is causing many people to make bad choices at the moment.

  5. Is it the new McCarthyism, or a justified rooting out of a problem that Australia must address before it is too late and impossible to do anything about? Is it Sinophobia, or protection of the Common Weal?

    I know what I think. And as long as the effort by ASIO as a result of the new Foreign Interference laws attacks the rot in both parties, then I am happy to let them get on with it.

  6. We’ll see if this is effective.

    Chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said Friday that Facebook will remove posts that incite violence or attempt to suppress voting — even from political leaders — and that the company will affix labels on posts that violate its other policies as well.

    The moves amount to major concessions amid rising public pressure, employee unrest and a burgeoning advertiser boycott over Facebook’s long-standing refusal to more aggressively address hate speech and other platform violations from politicians such as President Trump.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/06/26/facebook-hate-speech-policies/

  7. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 27, 2020 at 7:28 am
    Is it the new McCarthyism, or a justified rooting out of a problem that Australia must address before it is too late and impossible to do anything about? Is it Sinophobia, or protection of the Common Weal?

    I know what I think. And as long as the effort by ASIO as a result of the new Foreign Interference laws attacks the rot in both parties, then I am happy to let them get on with it.
    __________________________________________
    Fair enough c@t

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s another Saturday Special!

    The floodgates are opening! Jacqui Maley and Kate McClymont now tell us that Dyson Heydon allegedly sexually harassed young women while he was Trade Unions royal commissioner and at the exclusive Commonwealth Club where he stayed while on the High Court.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/fresh-allegations-levelled-against-ex-judge-dyson-heydon-20200626-p556mx.html
    A superb contribution here from Julia Baird about how many in the legal profession knew about Heydon’s proclivities.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-single-question-reverberates-throughout-the-dyson-heydon-affair-20200626-p556ge.html
    According to The Australian’s Katrina Grace Kelly, the Dyson Heydon sexual harassment inquiry was fair and lawful.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/dyson-heydon-sexual-harassment-inquiry-fair-and-lawful/news-story/966ef076e72773a5c8b761ad245f4185
    Do yourself a favour and read this sparkling contribution from Paul Bongiorno. He goes into the appointment of Heydon to the “Get Shorten and Gillard” royal commission and then to his fall from grace.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2020/06/26/injustices-the-high-court/159313317010034
    Allegations against former High Court judge Dyson Heydon have delivered the legal profession its “us too” moment – and the Law Council is determined not to waste it explains the AFR’s legal editor Michael Pelly.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/this-has-to-be-a-turning-point-for-the-profession-20200626-p556d9
    Former judge’s associate Bri Lee writes about sexual harassment in the legal profession.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2020/06/27/sexual-harassment-the-legal-profession/159318000010032
    Rob Harris and Zoe Samios report that the ABC put forward two separate proposals offering to open more regional studios, expand its coverage of remote communities and hire more journalists in rural areas in return for the federal government dumping its decision to freeze annual funding indexation. Fletcher has been playing funny buggers by the look of it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-plan-to-expand-regional-coverage-was-ignored-and-kept-secret-20200626-p556nz.html
    In this stirring op-ed Ita Buttrose writes that it’s been a devastating week for the ABC, and all Australians will suffer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-been-a-devastating-week-for-the-abc-and-all-australians-will-suffer-20200626-p556o7.html
    And Margaret Simmons accuses Morrison of being fancy-pants in saying there are no cuts to the ABC.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/scott-morrison-is-being-fancy-pants-in-saying-there-are-no-cuts-to-the-abc-20200626-p556gf.html
    Here Gerard Henderson salivates over the job cuts at the ABC.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/abc-oneeyed-on-staff-cuts/news-story/7e58d8610509ca52fea55f977e1fac69
    The Saturday Paper’s Rick Morton reveals that two days before the ABC confirmed that up to 250 jobs will be cut across the organisation, the federal government finalised a $200,000 offer for consultants to prepare a report on news and media business models looking specifically at the impact of public broadcasters “on commercial operators”.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/06/27/exclusive-new-govt-report-targets-abc/159318000010021
    Australia has been engaged in a global battle to secure enough test kits, ventilators and protective equipment to manage the virus – and it’s every country for itself explains the AFR’s Ronald Mizen.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/inside-the-wild-west-battle-to-secure-medical-supplies-20200615-p552vw
    If the PM spurns Albanese’s climate peace offer, Labor will be left with a painful problem opines Katharine Murphy. And she also says that if the ALP loses Eden-Monaro next Saturday, it will be a significant blow to morale and a green light for internal mischief
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/27/if-the-pm-spurns-albaneses-climate-peace-offer-labor-will-be-left-with-a-painful-problem
    In quite a forthright article Ross Gittins concludes it with, “We should take a more hard-nosed, business-like attitude towards foreign investors such as the miners, which make huge profits but employ very few workers. When state governments fall over themselves building infrastructure for them and offering royalty holidays and other inducements, it matters greatly how much company tax they pay before they ship their profits back home.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/foreign-investors-make-huge-profits-in-australia-we-should-have-a-fair-share-20200626-p556fq.html
    Phil Coorey reports that Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has urged bank bosses to keep lending, as he expresses fears of a second spike in unemployment when government assistance winds down after September 30.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/rba-wants-more-lending-amid-fears-of-second-spike-in-job-losses-20200626-p556dz
    Australia is doing well by international standards. But it has to change if that lead back to prosperity is to be kept says the editorial in the AFR.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/a-viral-surprise-and-a-jolt-from-the-economy-20200626-p556ei
    Scott Morrison has said Australia’s economic response to Covid-19 will enter a “another phase” in September, with industrial relations flexibility to be rolled over to support part-time jobs and talks with the big banks about extending loan repayment holidays.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/26/coronavirus-australia-covid19-scott-morrison-to-meet-bank-chiefs-as-economic-cliff-looms
    Australia must reject austerity and embrace targeted spending to beat this recession say these three economists in The Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/26/australia-must-reject-austerity-and-embrace-targeted-spending-to-beat-this-recession
    Coronavirus and its lethal politics chipping away at life as we knew it, writes Paul Kelly.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/coronavirus-and-its-lethal-politics-chipping-away-at-life-as-we-knew-it/news-story/8c16ecea7aa0c87cb0a546edacdf1d89
    Coronavirus infections in Melbourne with an unknown source are at their highest levels since the pandemic reached Victoria, placing the state in a “dangerous situation”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/dangerous-situation-cases-of-covid-19-with-unknown-source-tap-new-high-20200626-p556p0.html
    Nick McKenzie and Lisa Visentin look at ASIO’s interest in NSW Labor MP Shaoquett Moselmane.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-mp-suspended-amid-asio-probe-into-foreign-interference-20200626-p556lr.html
    Peter Hartcher says that if there were any doubt about Australia’s resolve to stand its ground in the face of a full-force pressure campaign from China, those doubts evaporated yesterday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/our-china-spy-law-bares-its-teeth-with-raid-on-labor-mp-20200626-p556p7.html
    The Department of Home Affairs is cementing its role as chief co-ordinator of Australian security, rolling out permanent and as-required taskforces across government and the community to tackle threats in the real world and online, writes Karen Middleton. It’s extending its reach, she says.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/06/27/home-affairs-extends-reach-tackling-foreign-interference/159318000010027
    Clive Hamilton writes that Friday’s raids on the office and home of openly pro-Beijing NSW Labor MP Shaoquett Moselmane will attract the close attention of intelligence and security agencies across the Western world.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/sheets-pulled-back-in-search-for-reds-in-bed-with-the-alp/news-story/ff16c1b82ffcfa49dbb0edc807a228a7
    Mike Seccombe has some information that suggests the university fee changes will not markedly affect the rates of take up of courses intended by the government.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/06/27/uni-fee-hike-will-fail-hecs-architect/159318000010024
    Dennis Atkins thinks the Eden-Monaro byelection is a test run for pandemic-era politics.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2020/06/27/atkins-eden-monaro-byelection/
    Scott Connolly warns that the Morrison government is currently softening the ground to backflip on its long-standing commitment to abide by the already legislated increase in the superannuation guarantee to 12 per cent.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/superannuation/2020/06/27/super-guarantee-backflip/
    David Penberthy’s review of Christopher Pyne’s “tell all” book is worth reading.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/of-plots-and-mincing-poodles-christopher-pynes-political-tellall/news-story/ccf67184a02ab0e38b7b80d2d28119b2
    Richard Ackland’s pot pouri is worth a read,
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/diary/2020/06/27/gadfly-dicey-business/159318000010019
    Dana McCauley explains how travellers entering NSW will face extra time in hotel quarantine if they refuse a COVID-19 test, after national cabinet agreed on stricter measures to stop thousands of people being released into the community while potentially carrying the deadly coronavirus. Fair enough.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/states-divided-on-compulsory-testing-of-international-travellers-20200626-p556pa.html
    Almost 5000 thermometers will be distributed to tourism operators, who are asking visitors from Melbourne to act responsibly amid the city’s COVID-19 spike.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-s-tourist-hotspots-to-check-visitors-temperatures-over-holidays-20200626-p556o8.html
    South Australia could record up to 25 more coronavirus cases from international visitors arriving in the state this weekend, authorities warn, as theatres were given the green light to open.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/coronavirus/lessons-from-barossa-valley-could-guide-border-openings-around-the-country/news-story/e08e6d296990765ac0d14f04100c3609
    Noel Towell thinks that Dan Andrews must recapture hearts and minds after his military manoeuvres went awry.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-must-recapture-hearts-minds-after-military-manoeuvres-go-awry-20200625-p5566y.html
    The Andrews Government has had a victory in Victoria with the passing of new laws that will serve as a win for industrial relations, writes William Olson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/victory-for-andrews-labor-government-as-anti-wage-theft-law-is-passed,14041
    Rick Morton explains how divisions at The Age cost its editor his job.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/media/2020/06/27/how-divisions-the-age-cost-its-editor-his-job/159318000010033
    Tony Wright farewells Brendan Murphy from his gig as Australia’s Chief Medical Officer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/brendan-murphy-the-steady-doc-who-became-a-star-makes-his-exit-20200626-p556l1.html
    The AIMN explains the inhumanity around gig economy jobs.
    https://theaimn.com/the-inhumanity-around-gig-economy-jobs/
    Emma Koehn writes about the local head of $80 billion DNA sequencing biotech Illumina calling on the federal government to develop a national plan to better leverage genomic research and attract global medtechs to Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/covid-19-spotlight-prompts-calls-for-genomics-roadmap-20200626-p556ey.html
    This is a very concerning look inside the cyber attack operations emanating from Beijing.
    https://www.afr.com/technology/the-cyber-honey-trap-that-caught-out-beijing-20200625-p555zn
    According to Elizabeth Knight Virgin’s new private equity owners are set to track Qantas’ job-shedding route, with the rescued airline looking to slash about 30 per cent of its 9500-strong workforce.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/severe-lay-offs-on-the-radar-as-new-look-virgin-rises-from-the-ashes-20200626-p556kf.html
    Adam Morton tells us that the Morrison government is being urged to fix the use of environmental offsets to approve developments after an audit found major flaws in a system supposed to help protect threatened species from extinction.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/27/morrison-government-urged-to-fix-flawed-environmental-offsets-leaving-threatened-species-at-risk
    John Lord puts it to us that conservative parties view social engineering as a means of changing society to fit their own ideology.
    https://theaimn.com/conservatives-and-social-engineering/
    Tony Wright has written a lovely tribute to national living treasure Barry Jones and the latest edition of his magnus opus.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/barry-jones-still-hauling-around-his-loaded-cart-of-knowledge-20200625-p5563o.html
    The Government’s reliance on the gas industry is killing our planet, but medical professionals are raising awareness, write Drs Graeme McLeay and Ingo Weber.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-madness-of-a-gas-led-recovery-and-what-you-can-do-about-it,14039
    Art critic John McDonald proclaims that the new Powerhouse will not be a museum but rather a global embarrassment.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/new-powerhouse-not-a-museum-but-global-embarrassment-20200625-p5566q.html
    The IMF has concluded that India will likely be the hardest hit among the largest economies by the pandemic.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/off-a-cliff-india-s-economy-has-more-problems-than-the-pandemic-20200626-p556h4.html
    Elizabeth Farrelly has a big, frustrated spit, sating that everywhere you look, Australia behaves like the greedy schoolkid of climate class, wanting only to evade scrutiny, grab the cake and stuff it in gob.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/toppling-statues-won-t-be-enough-to-save-us-from-the-next-great-dying-20200625-p5566g.html
    Facebook is changing a number of policies relating to hate speech and voter suppression on the platform, the chief executive officer, Mark Zuckerberg, said in a surprise live video yesterday. More than 100 brands have joined a boycott of advertising on Facebook due to its failure to address hate speech and violence on the platform – most recently the major advertisers Verizon and Unilever.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jun/26/facebook-policies-hate-speech-advertisers-unilever
    Judith Brett goes into how the Nationals became a party for coal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/27/forgotten-farmers-mining-and-anti-green-invective-how-the-nationals-became-a-party-for-coal
    Sue Mitchell tells us how the shift in shopping habits triggered by the pandemic has ramifications for not only retailers but landlords and investors and there’s a growing realisation all parties will have to share the pain in this new “normal” state.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/retailers-and-landlords-alike-wrestle-with-new-normal-20200626-p556e6
    Peter FitzSimons’ weekly sporting article is worth a look.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/only-thing-better-than-hosting-the-women-s-world-cup-would-be-winning-it-20200626-p556l3.html
    John Perik explains how AFL great Nicky Winmar and leading sports photographer Wayne Ludbey are taking legal action against AFL identities Sam Newman, Don Scott and Mike Sheahan over claims made on their podcast that Winmar’s famous pointing to his skin in 1993 was not about racism.
    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-identities-at-centre-of-winmar-legal-stoush-20200626-p556kv.html
    The absence of Stephen Dank from an official record of disqualified people in sport has prompted Australia’s drugs-in-sport watchdog to contact the World Anti-Doping Agency about adding the disgraced sports scientist to its global list.
    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/stephen-dank-strangely-missing-from-wada-list-of-people-barred-from-sport-20200626-p556ks.html
    America is losing the fight against itself and a pandemic that doesn’t recognise political divisions and it faces a bleak scenario of death and disruption writes the AFR’s correspondent in the US, Jacob Greber.
    https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/the-virus-is-beating-america-again-and-nobody-knows-what-to-do-20200626-p556ff
    How America become a pariah nation of super-spreaders.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/26/america-european-union-travel-coronavirus
    Yesterday Mike Pence hailed “truly remarkable progress” in America’s battle with the coronavirus pandemic, despite the US reporting a record 40,000 new cases in the previous 24 hours, the highest daily total of the outbreak. What planet is he on?
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/26/mike-pence-coronavirus-progress-record-new-cases
    Swedish exceptionalism has been ended by coronavirus writes Erik Augustin Palm.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/26/swedish-exceptionalism-coronavirus-covid19-death-toll
    The UK will have to “live with the consequences” of Boris Johnson ditching Theresa May’s plan to maintain close economic ties with the EU after Brexit, Angela Merkel has said, hardening her tone over the prospect of a no-deal scenario at the end of the year.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/26/angela-merkel-uk-must-live-with-consequences-of-weaker-ties-to-eu-brexit
    From London Bevan Shields writes that not even Boris Johnson’s trademark bluff and bluster can hide the grim truths about the scale of Britain’s coronavirus crisis. He says the UK is about to make some new mistakes.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/after-a-botched-start-uk-may-be-about-to-make-new-mistakes-20200624-p555vy.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe


    Matt Golding






    Alan Moir


    Mark Knight

    Simon Letch


    Matt Davidson

    Tom Jellett

    Jon Kudelka

    John Shakespeare


    Joe Benke

    Jim Pavlidis

    Andrew Dyson

    Peter Broelman

    Johannes Leak

    From the US









  9. BK says:
    Saturday, June 27, 2020 at 7:35 am
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s another Saturday Special!

    The floodgates are opening! Jacqui Maley and Kate McClymont now tell us that Dyson Heydon allegedly sexually harassed young women while he was Trade Unions royal commissioner

    ———————

    Why is the media not putting Abbott under pressure , he was the one who appointed Heydon, and the prime minister at the time of these accusations

  10. Thanks BK!

    Props to the Bludger (was it Bushfire Bill?) who said the floodgates would open on the Heydon issue. And lo and behold check out BK’s offerings today.

    Any lawyer or judge or member of the legal profession who knew of Heydon’s abuses and sat silent or looked the other way should feel as disgraced as they are being made to look with each report that comes out.

  11. ‘Trump is owned by Putin’: President accused of ‘literal treason’ after bombshell NYT report on Russian assassination unit

    President Donald Trump was harshly criticized on Friday after a bombshell New York Times report on Russia offering bounties for the killing of U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

    “American intelligence officials have concluded that a Russian military intelligence unit secretly offered bounties to Taliban-linked militants for killing coalition forces in Afghanistan — including targeting American troops — amid the peace talks to end the long-running war there,” the newspaper reported,” the newspaper reported.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/trump-is-owned-by-putin-president-accused-of-literal-treason-after-bombshell-nyt-report-on-russian-assassination-unit/

  12. ‘The first four years were practice?’: Trump scorched for not being able to say what he wants to do if re-elected

    From social media users to top political reporters President Donald Trump is getting embarrassingly mocked for not being able to answer this simple question: “what are your priorities for a second term?” What makes it even worse is the question came from Trump’s good friend and unofficial advisor, Fox News host Sean Hannity – who flew with him to Wisconsin on Air Force One, so the question likely was not a surprise.

    “I never did this before,” the President, three and a half years into his term, added. “I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington, I think, 17 times. All of a sudden, I’m President of the United States. You know the story. I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our First Lady, and I say, ‘This is great.’ But I didn’t know very many people in Washington. It wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York,” Trump continued, rambling.

    “Now I know everybody. And I have great people in the administration. You make some mistakes. Like, you know, an idiot like Bolton, all he wanted to do was drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to kill people.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/the-first-four-years-were-practice-trump-scorched-for-not-being-able-to-say-what-he-wants-to-do-if-re-elected/

  13. 140 days after the election a new government has formed in Ireland.
    It will be a bizarre coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens and will have a 2 seat majority in the Dáil. FF leader Míchaél Martin replaces Leo Varadkar as Toaisech for the first 2 years of the deal.
    The alliance between the bitter enemies FF and FG, which have had a duopoly on power since the 1922 civil war, was driven by their even greater hatred of the other civil war party, Sinn Fein. The parties came to a three way tie in the election. The Greens have apparently extracted large concessions for their support which was required for a majority

  14. It’s Clear: Attorney General William Barr Must Go

    The role of the Attorney General is to uphold the rule of law, to represent the best interests of the United States, and to pursue justice. He or she is the chief attorney for our country, not the attorney for the office of the presidency or for any particular president.

    He or she is the chief attorney for our country, not the attorney for the office of the presidency or for any particular president. The current occupant of the White House, however, has a different view of the job.

    https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2020/06/25/it-is-clear-attorney-general-william-barr-must-go/?slreturn=20200526175010

  15. Scott @ #11 Saturday, June 27th, 2020 – 7:39 am

    BK says:
    Saturday, June 27, 2020 at 7:35 am
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s another Saturday Special!

    The floodgates are opening! Jacqui Maley and Kate McClymont now tell us that Dyson Heydon allegedly sexually harassed young women while he was Trade Unions royal commissioner

    ———————

    Why is the media not putting Abbott under pressure , he was the one who appointed Heydon, and the prime minister at the time of these accusations

    They tried it with Howard. The Lying Little Rodent just said, ‘No Comment’. Which is gutless, but what can you do with that? Maybe splash it on the front page, but which one? Who’s willing, of our media proprietor class, to do that to their little mate?

    It’s probably the case that they are even more reluctant to do it to Abbott. He was one of them. There is no honour among thieves. Or those who wish to keep their jobs.

  16. Lars Von Trier @ #19 Saturday, June 27th, 2020 – 7:59 am

    Not sure what your point is c@t? That Abbott is responsible for Heydon’s harrasment because he appointed him?

    No. My point is simply that some in the media may wish to ask long term friend of Dyson Heydon, Tony Abbott, what he knew and when? That they haven’t is telling, in and of itself. Why? Aren’t the powerful men (mostly men) who appoint these letchers aware? Do they not have their ear to the ground in an effective fashion that would preclude such calumy from occurring? If not, then they are exposed as weak and ineffectual, or worse still, complicit.

  17. Luke Foley lost his position as NSW ALP Opposition Leader for something similar:

    “Whilst pouring me a glass of the ever-chilled and ready Nicolas Feuillatte [champagne], his hand went down my back and rested on my backside. I jolted away,” recounted an administrative assistant who worked with Mr Heydon at the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption, established by then Prime Minister Tony Abbott in 2014.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/fresh-allegations-levelled-against-ex-judge-dyson-heydon-20200626-p556mx.html

  18. The Swedish COVID-19 statistics are very interesting – in particular the curve of their deaths – almost zero now.

  19. Well c@t I think the media can certainly ask that question of Abbott or any other associate. Not sure the answer is going to take it much further.

  20. I’d say men who are accused of harassment (and there’s some substance to the allegation) would typically be goorn today irrespective of who they are. Community expectations have changed.

    If Heydon was a serving judge – you couldn’t see him surviving.

  21. Handsy Haydon – after a day of rogering the ALP and Unions at TURC – tried his hand at rogering the staff working on the Royal Commission.. probably only debriefed on the former to his patron, Tony Abbott.

    “Former High Court judge Dyson Heydon allegedly sexually harassed young women while he was Trade Unions royal commissioner and at Canberra’s exclusive Commonwealth Club where he stayed while on the High Court.

    “Whilst pouring me a glass of the ever-chilled and ready Nicolas Feuillatte [champagne], his hand went down my back and rested on my backside. I jolted away,” recounted an administrative assistant who worked with Mr Heydon at the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption, established by then Prime Minister Tony Abbott in 2014.

    “His gaze lasted too long and was often directed at my breasts. He had a commanding presence which projected an intimidating aura of a man beyond reproach,” said the woman, who asked not to be identified.

    “I’ve carried guilt for years that I compartmentalised what happened,” she said. “I never considered saying anything to management as I knew of a previous allegation that had been dismissed and covered up.”

    She said the commissioner’s predatory behaviour was well-known and that the female staff referred to his overtures as “the champagne treatment”.

    A second woman employed at the royal commission said she was unnerved by Mr Heydon’s creepy actions, which included leering and requests to come to his room after work for a glass of champagne.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/fresh-allegations-levelled-against-ex-judge-dyson-heydon-20200626-p556mx.html

  22. Lars Von Trier @ #23 Saturday, June 27th, 2020 – 8:09 am

    Well c@t I think the media can certainly ask that question of Abbott or any other associate. Not sure the answer is going to take it much further.

    It won’t take the Dyson matter further, that is correct. Though I think it is well past time for Tony Abbott to be held to account for the whole TURC exercise. This may be one way of beginning that process.

  23. It just seems ridiculous that a democracy is having these issues.

    The Supreme Court said on Friday that it would not require Texas to let all eligible voters vote by mail.

    The Texas Democratic Party and several voters had urged the court to reinstate a federal trial judge’s injunction requiring state officials to allow all voters, and not just those who are 65 or older, to submit their ballots by mail. They relied on the 26th Amendment, which lowered the voting age to 18 and said the right to vote “shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of age.”

    The court’s brief order gave no reasons, which is typical when the justices rule on emergency applications, and there were no noted dissents. Justice Sonia Sotomayor issued a statement saying that the question in the case raised “weighty but seemingly novel questions regarding the 26th Amendment.”

    But she said the court was right not to address those questions in the context of an emergency application. “I hope,” she wrote, “that the court of appeals will consider the merits of the legal issues in this case well in advance of the November election.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/supreme-court-texas-vote-by-mail.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  24. Lizzie I think the Liberals would be pleased with the ABC exercise, the more they cut the more compliant the ABC becomes.

    Can you remember the last time the ABC did a story which was critical of the govt?

  25. C@tmomma: “Is it the new McCarthyism, or or a justified rooting out of a problem that Australia must address before it is too late and impossible to do anything about? Is it Sinophobia, or protection of the Common Weal? I know what I think. And as long as the effort by ASIO as a result of the new Foreign Interference laws attacks the rot in both parties, then I am happy to let them get on with it.”

    “McCarthyism” is often used nowadays as a synonym for the persecution of completely innocent people. In truth, some of the people McCarthy persecuted were more or less innocent: eg, Hollywood actors who had flirted with communism while they were young and naive, and when the US Government was proclaiming that Uncle Joe and Uncle Sam were besties. But some were undoubtedly Soviet agents of influence, or even out and out Soviet spies. Senator McCarthy became a joke because he could not/would not discriminate between the genuine Russian agents and the others.

    Some of the Russian agents pursued by the US Government in the 1950s were genuine threats as is shown by an increasing amount of documentary evidence from both sides that has been released since the Berlin Wall came down. You won’t necessarily hear much of this from academic historians, many of whom still harbour the belief that anyone who was anti-capitalist and anti-US was automatically one of the good guys, and that the US Government’s efforts to prosecute them for espionage was nothing more than persecution.

    So I believe you are right to think that there’s a job of work to be done at the moment, and that it’s not simply all about the Government wanting to persecute the Labor Party. Of course, it will be important that investigators draw a clear distinction between the genuinely malevolent and the merely naive.

    And, as with the instant sacking of Somyurek, I’m not 100% comfortable with the “guilty until proven innocent” approach the ALP is adopting towards Moselmane. But that seems to be the way of the world these days, as we’ve seen with the George Floyd case, which is routinely described as a “murder” by just about every politician and every media outlet around the globe, even though the case is yet to go to trial.

  26. Sweden finally has got its numbers down after belatedly applying the lock down and other measures most countries had done weeks earlier. It has paid a sad price, the seventh highest death rate in the world, nearly five times that of neighboring Denmark.
    And no guarantee that COVID can’t be caught twice, or that immunity can be acquired.

  27. Just listening to Rick Wilson’s latest. Apparently Trumpists are Twexiting (exiting Twitter) over concerns their tweets are being censored. They are turning to this platform instead:
    https://parler.com/auth/access

    Parler is an unbiased social media focused on real user experiences and engagement. Our content is moderated based off the FCC and the Supreme court of the United States which enables free expression without violence and a lack of censorship. Parler never shares your personal data.

    😆

  28. Lars Von Trier @ #31 Saturday, June 27th, 2020 – 8:24 am

    Lizzie I think the Liberals would be pleased with the ABC exercise, the more they cut the more compliant the ABC becomes.

    Can you remember the last time the ABC did a story which was critical of the govt?

    I read the following item earlier this morning while waiting for the “Woolies” delivery person. The item seems mildly critical.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-27/brief-sparkle-of-better-politics-come-to-an-end-eden-monaro/12397968

    I think I need fresh coffee as a reviver.

  29. Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, June 27, 2020 at 8:27 am
    ____________________
    Do you think the hour of Jeff Collins is upon us? He’s got to be a chance to re-rat (given his form). Poor Mills 2 knifings too much for anybody to bear.

  30. phoenixRED: “‘Trump is owned by Putin’: President accused of ‘literal treason’ after bombshell NYT report on Russian assassination unit”

    The problem with this sort of story is to try to work out what these left-wing critics of Trump think he should actually do about what would be a very delicate problem for any US President to deal with. Expel the Soviet Ambassador to the US? Launch a nuclear strike on the Kremlin?

    In my observation, the political left never had the slightest interest in criticising the many terrible things done by successive regimes in Moscow until the vastly overblown idea came along that Trump was a puppet of Putin. And I suspect that, once Trump is gone, the left will return to its total lack of interest in contemporary Russia.

  31. meher, what do you think about the theory that Xi will be cooped by the Party elite? – Overstretch, botched international relations etc.

  32. Disaster.

    Woolies dude delivered wrong order.

    Nappies, broccoli, high fibre bread – lots of stuff suitable for anybody but me.

    Poor bugger is redelivering and swapping.

  33. Torchbearer: “Sweden finally has got its numbers down after belatedly applying the lock down and other measures most countries had done weeks earlier.”

    Are you sure about this? I can’t find a lot of evidence online to indicate that Sweden has changed its strategy all that much over the past few months other than, like most other countries, increasing the amount of testing it is doing. I’d be interested to read more about the policy change if you have a link.

    I would imagine that, even if a country did absolutely nothing at all to try to stop the spread of coronavirus, the curve would eventually turn in a downward direction as it has done with every other major pandemic in human history. Hence the language of “flattening the curve”, ie: trying to keep the apogee at the lowest level possible.

  34. Avril BA(Hons), LLB(Hons), PhD (Arts)
    @DocAvvers
    ·
    38m
    If Peta Credlin does not know that the majority of South Sudanese are Christian, as opposed to the majority Muslim nation of Sudan, and that Sudan and South Sudan are two separate nations, by exposing her ignorance in the media like this she’s simply embarrassing herself.
    ***

    Maker Mayek
    @MakMayek
    · 9h
    Peta Credlin is a disgrace. The report on her show about South Sudanese being responsible for 14 cases of COVID-19 in Melbourne is nothing but Fake News. Facts: we don’t live in Coburg; Muslims? Hardly have any (with respect and love). 14 cases? All of us would know.

  35. Roozendaal was right about the Fireman all along. A man more interested in his own career than the Labor Party and what it could achieve.
    Is Mills at risk with Collins standing behind him? Possibly but I think his first challenge is to retain Fong Lim. In an electorate of 5,000 candidate personality is vital and a significant number of the voters will have already had some interaction with the Fireman.

  36. Kayjay:

    A terrible start to the weekend!

    I stopped having Woolies home delivery because they consistently got my orders wrong. It was easier to just go the shop myself than having to stuff around with returns and swaps and re-deliveries.

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