Weekend miscellany: Morgan, Victorian Labor and latest New Zealand poll

Polls show a tight race in Australia and a rather less tight one in New Zealand; meanwhile, Victorian Labor’s factional players wonder what to do next.

Assorted developments from here and the near abroad:

• Roy Morgan has made one of its arbitrarily timed drops of its federal voting intention polling, which it conducts weekly but usually keeps to itself. This one has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, which based on the accompanying chart would appear to be its lowest point since the government’s coronavirus bounce. The primary votes are Coalition 42.5%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 10.5% and One Nation 4%. The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2593.

• Greg Brown of The Australian ($) reports the alliance in Victorian Labor between the Industrial Left and much of the Right is set to survive the demise of Adem Somyurek, who was generally credited with welding it together. This is due to a shared concern to prevent the Socialist Left gaining advantage from the present disarray, and the Industrial Left’s determination to secure the new federal seat shortly to be created in Victoria. However, the report quotes an unidentified Labor skeptic saying such manoeuvres are redundant since the national executive’s three-year takeover of the state branch means they are “not going to have a vote in anything”.

• In a review of Victorian Labor’s increasingly complicated factional terrain, Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review ($) notes party convention dictates that the national executive allocates seats to each faction after disruptive redistributions, to whom it then falls to fill them through internal ballots. However, a less messy option under the circumstances would simply be to guarantee the preselections of all sitting members. The most likely beneficiary would be Senator Kim Carr, who at 64 and after nearly three decades in the Senate would otherwise have to reckon with “a younger generation of left-wing faction operators who want to replace him”.

• With New Zealand’s election less than three months, I will henceforth be making note here of poll results from that country, which come by at a rate of one or two a month. The latest is from Colmar Brunton for 1 News, one of three poll series that reports with any regularity, together with Reid Research for Newshub and Roy Morgan for reasons of its own. After all three showed an astonishing blowout in favour of Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government last month, the latest result finds a substantial correction with Labour down nine to 50% and National down up by the same amount to 38%. Between the two polls, the National Party ditched its leader and Health Minister David Clark blotted the government’s coronavirus copybook by humiliating the country’s chief medical officer at a press conference. With minor parties needing to either clear a 5% national vote threshold or win a constituency seat to qualify for a share of seats proportionate to their vote, the poll finds the Greens up one to 6%, ACT New Zealand up a point to 3% and New Zealand First down one to 2%. ACT New Zealand should be safe thanks to party leader David Seymour’s hold on the seat of Epsom, but New Zealand First would rely on the long shot of one-time Labour MP Shane Jones poaching the seat of Northland, which party leader Winston Peters failed to carry in 2017.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Morgan, Victorian Labor and latest New Zealand poll”

Comments Page 15 of 20
1 … 14 15 16 … 20

  2. We have aboriginal nationhood- it was never surrendered. We do not need some nice words in a Constitution many aboriginal people see as illegitimate to patronizingly acknowledge it.

  4. AE

    January 30, 2020….Acoss and level of Newstart

    Raise Newstart by $95 a week: ACOSS

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/raise-newstart-by-95-a-week-acoss-20200128-p53vfr.html

    ACOSS chief executive Cassandra Goldie said the $95 raise was the “absolute minimum” needed to pay for essentials like food, medications and accomodation, describing it as a “modest ask”.
    :::
    ACOSS’s figure has been updated to “keep pace with cost of living”, and comes as new Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showed drought has driven up the cost of fresh produce and meat, with significant price rises for petrol.

    Newstart, which is updated twice a year in line with inflation, has not been increased in real terms since 1994.

    ————

    The Greens position: #RaiseTheRate

    https://greens.org.au/campaigns/raise-rate

    It is unacceptable for the Government to allow the rate of the Jobseeker Payment to return back to below the poverty line to payments of $40 a day in September, condemning what is likely to be millions of people to live in poverty.

    It cannot be Government policy for people to live in poverty. An increase to the Jobseeker payment must be long term, permanent and above the poverty line.

    To meet the OECD relative measure of poverty a fortnightly income of at least $1012 is needed, keeping Jobseeker at its current rate would ensure people were not living in poverty.

    The fact is, this crisis will not be over in September, and sadly there is still likely to be over a million Australians out of work.

    We are seeing forecasts of unemployment rates of up to 8-10% over the next few years.

    We can and should choose to adequately support those people impacted by the high unemployment rates.

  5. Lizzie- and aboriginal people have a few labels thrown at us that arent useful too..maybe I should list them?
    They are a bit more offensive than ‘white’.

  6. This is absolutely by-the-book politics for the Greens, who will always as a matter of strategy adopt a position that is adjacent to but still opposed to the consensus view. This enables them to campaign against the consensus.

    Trying to gain consensus requires work. It requires cooperation, nuance, and a willingness to listen to alternate views. The Greens continue to demonstrate they lack this capacity, whatever the issue at hand.

    I hoped Thorpe might be able to challenge the Greens strategy of simply shouting at people that they are wrong, and instead work with other Aboriginal leaders in the Senate to achieve meaningful progress on constitutional recognition for Aboriginal people. So far it’s not looking like she has this ability. I’d love to be proved wrong, but it isn’t looking promising.

  7. The “consensus” that Briefly speaks of is among a very small circle of people – the opinion leaders, academics and professional NGO workers who participated in the Uluru process in 2017. They don’t necessarily have good political instincts. Their political strategy may be poor and very likely to lead to a failed referendum. And their view of what the sequence of steps should be may not be a consensus view among First Nations people generally.

    I think that Lidia Thorpe’s analysis makes a lot of sense. If you want a referendum to succeed – a monumental task -you need to engage deeply with the whole community, which has not happened yet on this topic. A truth and reconciliation process, and a treaty-making process, could both be excellent ways of changing public perceptions, building community cohesion, and maximising the probability that a referendum would actually pass.

  9. Torchbearer says:
    Sunday, June 28, 2020 at 11:22 am

    We have aboriginal nationhood- it was never surrendered. We do not need some nice words in a Constitution many aboriginal people see as illegitimate to patronizingly acknowledge it.
    —————————————————-
    This was the point i was trying to make to Guytaur when he was claiming some kind of BLM link which is entirely different set of issues because as i understand it the main issue facing Indigenous Australians is basically about wanting access to traditional lands and to reconnect with traditional practices. I would think the best way for that to happen is to pass ownership of national parks or to include in the management of crown land the local tribal group.

  10. Torchbearer

    I didn’t mean that ‘white’ is necessarily offensive, although it is often used pejoratively, and I understand why. I meant that there are so many different ‘shades’, many of whom would argue that they are not white.

  11. “ As I have said before just increase Newstart to DSP rate.
    Problem solved.”

    No it isn’t. The debate is skewed by the definition of ‘the problem’.

    Take lil’ Green Pony’s reposte to my post. It ignores that I am also advocating for a minimum payment above what ACOSS reckons is the minimum rate to keep folk above the poverty line. Because it ignores the mix of paid work/welfare that I advocate.

    Pony doesn’t even ‘go there’ about how the government could possibly leverage folk – especially those from chronically long term unemployed backgrounds – into full time work, alla a working nation 2.0 Program (the basic concept for which has a proven track record of actually working).

    The reason why pony doesn’t engage is because for her actually progress doesn’t matter: being seen to be concerned for ‘the poors’ (silly poors) is the only important thing. Pip pip.

  13. lizzie
    You make a good point. I recently read an article by a very pissed off Eastern European now in the UK who was pissed with being lumped in with the rest. He pointed out his people for centuries had to stave off being taken as slaves by the Ottomans and generally had the shit kicked out of them by various empires. So WTF is this ‘White privilege’ he is meant to be apologizing for.

  15. Michael Weiss@michaeldweiss
    ·
    2h
    NEW: A Western intelligence source has told me the intelligence on GRU Unit 29155 offering the Taliban money to kill U.S. or British soldiers is correct.

    Like I said: when it comes to today’s WH, the Russians or the Taliban, you can’t believe any of them.

  16. 3 cases in NSW today – all O/S in quarantine
    18,000 + tests
    49 in Victoria – 26 definitely unknown contacts and another 19 likely 4 from a cluster Must be anational record for community spread

    Close the border NOW!

    An analogy to the Spanish Flu – Australia’s quarantine prevented infections for more than 8 months before 1 case escaped from the Melbourne docks and NSW was slow to close its border

  19. Correction: Victoria has a new classification system – the 26 may or may not include hotel quarantines and known contacts – this will be made clear in the next few days.
    Victoria did less testing than NSW Yesterday

  20. “Michael Weiss@michaeldweiss
    ·
    2h
    NEW: A Western intelligence source has told me the intelligence on GRU Unit 29155 offering the Taliban money to kill U.S. or British soldiers is correct.“

    Dave ‘modern liberal’ Sharma should hang his head in shame and resign from public life altogether for his outrageous op. piece in the SMH just last week calling for Australia to join with Russia in Trump’s repurposed ‘G7 plus’ anti China block.

    Such a concept trashes the successful 50 bipartisan foreign policy of developing cooperative multilateral instructions that favour the strategic interests of ‘middle powers’ like Australia, Canada, Korea, etc etc.

    The proposal dishonours the Malaysian Airline victims and now, also Australia and the western alliance’s efforts in normalising Afghanistan. How many Australian graves must team SfM piss on to make their Trumpian domestic political wedges?

  22. OC

    Close the border NOW!

    Too late, OC, NSW already has ‘community transmitted’ (ie originating from an unidentified ‘someone’ in the community) cases popping up everywhere.

  24. Has she announced the sensitivity and specificity of the saliva test?
    A few weeks ago it was considered low value

  26. Dave ‘modern liberal’ Sharma should hang his head in shame and resign from public life altogether for his outrageous op. piece in the SMH just last week calling for Australia to join with Russia in Trump’s repurposed ‘G7 plus’ anti China block.

    Yesterday’s revelations are somewhat inconvenient truths for some.

  27. ML
    NSW is averaging 1 community acquired every 3 days. A number of these, like the reported case in Wollongong are false positive. Nsw Health doesn’t announce these as they want the community message left intact but you can see the numbers in the revisions
    This is Not popping up everywhere

  28. AE

    I do apologise for simply addressing your out-of-date understanding as to what Acoss and the Greens are saying wrt to level of Newstart aka Jobseeker. What a shockingly heinous crime.

    I do understand your constant need to address me using a condescending pejorative.

  29. Daniel Andrews

    “He said that everyone who is leaving hotel quarantine has been tested, and those that refused would spend 24, as opposed to 14 days in mandatory hotel quarantine.”

  30. Defence Force applications through the roof as job market crumble

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/defence-force-applications-through-the-roof-as-job-market-crumbles-20200627-p556rv.html

    Unemployed and career-nervous Australians are turning to the Defence Force in droves through the COVID-19 pandemic, with year-on-year applications up close to 40 per cent in April alone.

    The decimation of the aviation industry amid global travel restrictions has been one of the factors behind the influx, according to recruiters, as people look to stable employment in a crumbling job market.

    Director of military recruiting Captain Jan Noonan (RAN) said there had been applications spikes before, but the “acceleration” in the 2020 period was something new.

    During the global financial crisis, for example, the impact on applications was not seen until about four months after the job crunch began, she said.

  31. olive, tan, off-white, white, yellow, pink, brown, ruddy, beige….somewhere in there is an acronym for non-black…

    Just trying to be helpful Lizzie…

  35. Michael O’Brien, Victorian Liberal Opposition Leader, doesn’t even know the law around charging for quarantine detention. It’s illegal.

    Or, he knows but wanted to make a silly political jab at Dan Andrews and mislead the Victorian public for a petty political gain.

    Either way, it just proves he’s not fit to lead Victoria.

  36. Victoria has had more than 70% of all cases since April
    It was comparatively slow to start intensive testing and then had a “blitz” in May
    Coincidence?

  37. Andrews can’t catch a break at the moment. It’s a chance he could be blamed for this. Combine that with the branch stacking, PFAS issue (Werribee) and it creates an opening. If it is true that he is thinking about retiring soon he will be handing his successor a potentially losing hand. Although that would require the Vic Liberals to appear competent. Which is unlikely.

  39. C@t let’s just break that down ? He’s not fit because he doesn’t know the law ( surely that’s why they have a solicitor general) or because he’s making a partisan political attack on dan Andrews ( surely that’s his job as opposition leader)?

  41. There’s no doubt someone needs to be blamed and the buck stops with Andrews. From what I understand the lax regulations around hotels was the cause for much of this community transmission. In one case, a security guard allowed an overseas arrival to go outside and smoke a cigarette and even had a puff. He got the virus, went to a family gathering soon after and spread it around. Andrews did not implement appropriate measures. An inquiry should be launched.

  42. “Andrews can’t catch a break at the moment. It’s a chance he could be blamed for this.”

    Why wouldn’t he be blamed? He was all macho about Victoria’s policies being the best in Australia.

  43. Lars Von Trier @ #739 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 12:34 pm

    C@t let’s just break that down ? He’s not fit because he doesn’t know the law ( surely that’s why they have a solicitor general) or because he’s making a partisan political attack on dan Andrews ( surely that’s his job as opposition leader)?

    It’s because he either unknowingly misled the public to try and jab at Dan Andrews and didn’t bother to inform himself before he said it, or he knew and did it anyway. In the middle of a pandemic!

    Ergo, irresponsible and unfit to lead Victoria.

  45. I see Pork Barilaro is advocating a vote for Labor in Eden Monaro – Send a Message to Canberra – he booms, megaphone in hand….

    “NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has slammed the Morrison government’s “devastating” budget cuts to the ABC and accused his federal counterparts of an “incomprehensible” failure to deliver more jobs to regional Australia.

    In a letter to Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, the NSW Deputy Premier seized on an exclusive report in Saturday’s Sydney Morning Herald and The Age that revealed Communications Minister Paul Fletcher had ignored two separate proposals by the ABC to spend tens of millions launching regional studios and expanding coverage of remote areas, if the government dumped its funding freeze.

    The government did not respond to the ABC’s request and the Nationals were not informed. Mr Barilaro describes this situation was “devastating” for the regions who had been through droughts, floods, bushfires and the coronavirus pandemic.

    “It would be fair to say that while our communities are resilient, their ability to weather this compounding storm is becoming harder and harder,” he said in the letter, seen by the The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barilaro-urges-morrison-government-to-reverse-devastating-and-incomprehensible-abc-cuts-20200627-p556sd.html

  47. Is Mandy Jane contributing here today?

    “AN LNP Senator has admitted using a pseudonym on social media to promote her political views on controversial topics including race, family law and religious freedom.

    Analysis of first-term Queensland Senator Amanda Stoker’s official Facebook site has identified a series of political exchanges stretching back to last year involving a Mandy Jane profile.

    In some of the exchanges, Mandy Jane refers to Senator Stoker, whose middle name is Jane, in the third person as she defends the politician from attacks or agrees with her supporters.

    In one exchange Mandy Jane copies a previous comment posted by Senator Stoker but changes the pronouns so it appears they are different people.

    “Another senator denied formality to the motion – it wasn’t Stoker,” says part of a Mandy Jane post.

    When Senator Stoker posted the same comment earlier, she wrote, “ … it wasn’t me”.

    A spokesman for Senator Stoker told The Sunday Mail the Mandy Jane account was her personal profile but denied she should have disclosed that information before posting on the official page.

    “Senator Stoker is simply providing information that is already publicly available or already attributable to her public profile,” he said.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/lnp-senator-amanda-stoker-admits-to-using-pseudonym-on-social-media/news-story/31db925b71050b14dbce9d8a21386836

Comments Page 15 of 20
1 … 14 15 16 … 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *