Assorted developments from here and the near abroad:
• Roy Morgan has made one of its arbitrarily timed drops of its federal voting intention polling, which it conducts weekly but usually keeps to itself. This one has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, which based on the accompanying chart would appear to be its lowest point since the government’s coronavirus bounce. The primary votes are Coalition 42.5%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 10.5% and One Nation 4%. The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2593.
• Greg Brown of The Australian ($) reports the alliance in Victorian Labor between the Industrial Left and much of the Right is set to survive the demise of Adem Somyurek, who was generally credited with welding it together. This is due to a shared concern to prevent the Socialist Left gaining advantage from the present disarray, and the Industrial Left’s determination to secure the new federal seat shortly to be created in Victoria. However, the report quotes an unidentified Labor skeptic saying such manoeuvres are redundant since the national executive’s three-year takeover of the state branch means they are “not going to have a vote in anything”.
• In a review of Victorian Labor’s increasingly complicated factional terrain, Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review ($) notes party convention dictates that the national executive allocates seats to each faction after disruptive redistributions, to whom it then falls to fill them through internal ballots. However, a less messy option under the circumstances would simply be to guarantee the preselections of all sitting members. The most likely beneficiary would be Senator Kim Carr, who at 64 and after nearly three decades in the Senate would otherwise have to reckon with “a younger generation of left-wing faction operators who want to replace him”.
• With New Zealand’s election less than three months, I will henceforth be making note here of poll results from that country, which come by at a rate of one or two a month. The latest is from Colmar Brunton for 1 News, one of three poll series that reports with any regularity, together with Reid Research for Newshub and Roy Morgan for reasons of its own. After all three showed an astonishing blowout in favour of Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government last month, the latest result finds a substantial correction with Labour down nine to 50% and National down up by the same amount to 38%. Between the two polls, the National Party ditched its leader and Health Minister David Clark blotted the government’s coronavirus copybook by humiliating the country’s chief medical officer at a press conference. With minor parties needing to either clear a 5% national vote threshold or win a constituency seat to qualify for a share of seats proportionate to their vote, the poll finds the Greens up one to 6%, ACT New Zealand up a point to 3% and New Zealand First down one to 2%. ACT New Zealand should be safe thanks to party leader David Seymour’s hold on the seat of Epsom, but New Zealand First would rely on the long shot of one-time Labour MP Shane Jones poaching the seat of Northland, which party leader Winston Peters failed to carry in 2017.
Wow, imagine that. Believing that you are intellectually superior to other commenters here just because you are a Green!
I’d be embarrassed if that was me.
Coronavirus Victoria: experts warn against blaming migrant communities for spreading misinformation
Researchers say the government needs to find more effective Covid-19 health messaging for engaging with culturally diverse groups
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/28/coronavirus-victoria-experts-warn-against-blaming-migrant-communities-for-spreading-misinformation
lizzie @ #650 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:27 am
😆
Some people don’t get irony. But there you have it.
The Condescending Cut and Paste Queen turns up and immediately the tone of the blog goes south. I wonder if LvT will turn up to admonish her for her bad behaviour?
Is that *crickets* that I can hear? 😀
C@t:
The problem is, as Conway points out, Barr is trying to replace Berman with someone with zero prosecutorial experience. All but guaranteeing that nothing will happen on that front.
C@tmomma @ #655 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 8:30 am
You know if you just ignored her she’d disappear. Trolls only hang around when people pay attention to them.
Some people don’t get emojis that can signify irony. But there you have it. 😐
Jonathon Pie gets stuck into the narrow-minded, bigoted bullies of the left… who of course always claim that it’s them who are the ones being bullied.
Strelnikovs, all of them.
https://youtu.be/e5TVLEaqqdI
Confessions @ #657 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:31 am
Tried that. She just takes our silence as an open door to turn the blog into a Greens bulletin board and anti Labor platform.
Thanks, BB. 🙂
Somyurek issues Vic Labor stern warning
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6809321/somyurek-issues-vic-labor-stern-warning/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews#gsc.tab=0
I think you meant “supple”!
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 28, 2020 at 10:30 am
The Condescending Cut and Paste Queen turns up and immediately the tone of the blog goes south. I wonder if LvT will turn up to admonish her for her bad behaviour?
Is that *crickets* that I can hear?
_____________________
C@t I don’t see what pegasus has done – other than not conform to your views?
She’s not even in the Senate yet and Lidia Thorpe is already a failure to indigenous Australians for walking out and turning her back on constitutional recognition of the First Australians. Does she even believe in Aboriginal self determination?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8465117/Aboriginal-Indigenous-leaders-ANGRY-Greens-Lidia-Thorpe-divisive-views-constitutional-recognition.html
Black Lives Matter: the link between climate change and racial justice
https://climateanalytics.org/blog/2020/black-lives-matter-the-link-between-climate-change-and-racial-justice/
There you have it.
The left are bully boys.
To be fair this is not BB’s valid point about overreach and cancel culture.
Its the end of the foreign media controlled and owned Liberal/National party if , they snap back the welfare payments with no increase, and snap back to the others who need income support with out any financial help.
While the advice from the medical talking heads we see at daily briefings is that the BLM rallies did not have anything to do with the current outbreaks in Victoria, I’m not sure that argument is valid.
There is nothing logical in saying that, because BLM-related outbreaks didn’t happen in other states, it was impossible for them to have occurred in Victoria.
No side-argument actually needs to be made. The FACT is that BLM-related outbreaks did NOT happen in Victoria. Stick with the facts, not the flawed logic.
Lars Von Trier @ #665 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:35 am
Wrong LvT.
The condescending sneer at lizzie and I was deployed by Pegasus as soon as we questioned her assumption about us not querying David Speers interrupting Paul Fletcher, like we do whenever a Labor MP is interviewed by him. Not to mention Pegasus resorting to the Trumpy defense that, lol, I was just joking, and I understand why you two just don’t get it, intellectually-inferior (implied), beings and Labor supporters that you are.
Viz:
Pegasus (AnonBlock)
Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:23 am
Comment #644
I see the point I am making is too subtle for lizzie and Cat. Never mind.
Vinegary bile dripping from every word.
If you can’t see it, maybe you need to learn how to perceive it. Because it’s real and it absolutely lowers the tone of the proceedings on the blog.
Confessions
😆 The Daily Mail, always sure to put anything to do with the RW’s culture wars fairly. She wants a treaty. Constitutional recognition that gives anything more than a token acknowledgement to Aborigines will have SFA chance of passing.
Victoria @ #567 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 7:03 am
Isn’t this the amount ACOSS was calling for before the last election?
Tehan’s Turkey, day 11:
Women will pay an extra $500m for uni because of the disproportionate impact of the fee changes.
For men the figure is $340m
https://amp.smh.com.au/business/workplace/young-women-to-pay-half-a-billion-dollars-more-for-uni-courses-20200622-p5553n.html
Frankly, I wouldn’t insult the structural integrity of some hastily concocted rafts by comparing this “package” to them.
Cat
That’s your view.
It’s not mine. To me Pegasus was pointing out the double standards of complaining about interrupting Labor pollies and LNP pollies.
Instead of the personal attack go with why it’s not a double standard.
C@t:
Gaslighters like Pegasus and Lars will ALWAYS choose to talk about other commenters before they talk about issues. Seriously, the best thing you can do is to ignore them.
I do not know who gave Newscorp media the heads up re Newstart but it is a stupid decision to “ announce” any increase to Newstart before dealing with the future of Jobkeeper.
I do not think the hard heads within the government will take long to deny any increase is on the table.
People really need to read the entire article linked to by Confessions and not go by the headline.
——-
‘Exactly what politics in Australia needs’: Lidia Thorpe to be next Greens senator for Victoria
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lidia-thorpe-to-be-next-greens-senator-for-victoria-20200620-p554i2.html
——–
In 2017: ‘We won’t sell out our mob’: Delegates walk out of Constitutional recognition forum in protest
https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/nitv-news/article/2017/05/25/breaking-delegates-walk-out-constitutional-recognition-forum-protest
C@t your responses are not proportionate.
So pegasus:
“I see the point I am making is too subtle for lizzie and Cat. Never mind.”
Is about 1.5 out of 10 on the invective scale.
So c@t:
“condescending cut and paste queen”
Is about 5 out of 10 on the invective scale.
You could simply choose not to respond to pegasus’ post? Why not do that?
That was my obvious point. I often pop into PB after listening to Insiders to see what the reaction has been made. The ranting and raving from the usual handful whenever a Labor pollie is interviewed….stop interrupting! stop talking over him! blah blah blah. Not so today.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, June 28, 2020 at 10:39 am
Black Lives Matter: the link between climate change and racial justice
https://climateanalytics.org/blog/2020/black-lives-matter-the-link-between-climate-change-and-racial-justice/
The direct linkages between environmental justice and racial justice have long been areas of research and activism, and the relationship between climate justice and racial justice builds on these connections. Long-standing racist policies and practices – such as residential segregation, unequal educational opportunities, and limited prospects for economic advancement – have led to increased vulnerability of Black people to climate change impacts and by extension other global crises that may emerge.
This being so, it might be reasonable to expect the Greens in this country to end the dysfunction that has characterised reformist politics in relation to environmental, climate, energy and economic policies. That would be a highly constructive thing to do. But the Greens have not sought to end dysfunction. They are the authors of dysfunction and derive political profits from it.
The Greens deserve a share of the blame for the impacts of environmental destruction of all kinds on people’s of colour.
We will accomplish absolutely nothing of any durable value in Australia on these matters until the dysfunction is resolved. But it will not be resolved because the Greens make their living from it.
Is anyone laughing as hard as I am atm in response to this?
Pegasus @ #668 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 8:57 am
So am I, because YOU rarely talk about anything!
This shit will look a lot less clever when Trump goes down flailing in November, ScoFo.
You’ll just look a fool on the global stage, not part of the populist Zeitgeist.
https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bring-in-the-barbarians-the-morrison-government-is-marching-us-towards-anti-intellectualism-20200627-p556s8.html
An idea of how big the change is in the US.
Republicans in Mississippi
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/us/mississippi-flag-confederate-legislature.html
You don’t get much more Deep South.
C
I see you continue to promote the National Party.
“Recognition”‘ in the Constitution has nothing to do with self determination- a treaty, representation and real power divested to aboriginal communities is though.
My community do not support token ‘recognition’ in a document until a treaty establishing ownership of the land and waters is settled.
This referendum is doomed to fail, particularly with this Government that will never consult in good faith. We have been here for 60,000 years, we are in no hurry.
That’s very dishonest of you, Confessions. Lidia Thorpe does not oppose constitutional recognition. She opposes going straight to constitutional recognition without the preceding stages of truth and reconciliation and treaty-making. The difference of opinion is about the sequence of steps, not the goal of constitutional recognition.
What has happened with regards to Contempt of Court by Dutton? Has he secretly given the refugees permanent residents or sent them back? We have heard nothing, is this not more serious than Molesman (sp?). This could mean gaol time.
“ Looks like a $150 per fortnight increase to Newstart after the temporary doubling..
“The federal government won’t reduce the country’s dole payments to the amount that the unemployed were receiving in the pre-coronavirus era, a media report says. News Corp Australia newspapers cite senior ministers as saying the JobSeeker unemployment benefits formerly known as Newstart will increase from $565.70 a fortnight to $715.70. The government temporarily raised the welfare payment from a base rate of $565.70 a fortnight to $1115.70 during the pandemic, a change due to end in September. News Corp reports Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is likely to announce a permanent boost to unemployment benefit payments in the mini-budget in July.”
I wonder whether The Greens and various outliers in the welfare lobby will actually welcome this?
Given that the Greens campaigned for a $75 per week immediate lift in the newstart rate, I’m guessing their support will depend on Labor’s position: if Labor supports it, then ipso facto, it will not be enough (even though it was exactly the Greens ambit position only 3 months ago. Chutzpah, much?).
For me, the key is not what the newstart rate is, but what the government could be doing with the ~$300 per fortnight they won’t be shelling out from September.
Just to nail my colours to the mast (again), imo that money should be going towards a Working Nation 2.0 training wage program, and in default of places being available, towards PAID work for the dole for identified socially useful part time jobs.
In short, the political debate should be over what the government is doing to get people work, not what the ‘sit down’ money is.
It is very difficult to have a sensible discussion when it is immediately reduced to the personal. No wonder I find blocking so useful.
poroti:
Of course she wants a treaty, which in many ways is the ultimate perfect symbol that arguably has even less chance of happening than constitutional recognition.
Her walking out on Aboriginal leaders also indicates that she has that Greens propensity to turn her back on working towards a compromise interim step because it’s harder to do.
Torchbearer and Nicholas
Exactly. My next post was going to cover the points both of you have made. It’s good to see other voices pushing back against the misrepresentation and outright distortion of Thorpe’s views that has already begun before she has even taken her seat in the senate. How unsurprising.
Pesky interfering justices!
Earlwood, do you know the Hollywood’s ? There’s an interesting conversation.
White people lecturing indigenous Australians about the positions they’re permitted to take about their own future……Sort of thing you’d expect to see from stalwarts of the Somyurek Party….oh, hang on!
Nicholas says:
Sunday, June 28, 2020 at 11:02 am
She’s not even in the Senate yet and Lidia Thorpe is already a failure to indigenous Australians for walking out and turning her back on constitutional recognition of the First Australians. Does she even believe in Aboriginal self determination?
That’s very dishonest of you, Confessions. Lidia Thorpe does not oppose constitutional recognition. She opposes going straight to constitutional recognition without the preceding stages of truth and reconciliation and treaty-making. The difference of opinion is about the sequence of steps, not the goal of constitutional recognition.
This is absolutely by-the-book politics for the Greens, who will always as a matter of strategy adopt a position that is adjacent to but still opposed to the consensus view. This enables them to campaign against the consensus. They a\have absolutely no interest whatsoever in political progress. They profit from stalemate, from conflict, from dispute. This is the art of dysfunction, as coded by Bob Brown.
The Greens along with the lunar right will do their utmost to frustrate any progress on this matter. They earn their living by selling decoys, Green Herring, Shiny Lies and other common bait.
Constitutional recognition is an important part of establishing Aboriginal nationhood. In that sense it absolutely is about self determination.
Confessions
says:
Sunday, June 28, 2020 at 11:14 am
“Recognition”‘ in the Constitution has nothing to do with self determination
Constitutional recognition is an important part of establishing Aboriginal nationhood. In that sense it absolutely is about self determination.
_______________
white people telling indigenous people what self determination means….kind of defeats the point no?
An increase of $150/week is insufficient in my opinion. Working people are not responsible for unemployment. They did not cause it and they will carry the greatest burden. The rate should be enough for a modest but dignified subsistence. Rather than crashing incomes, the government should be finding ways to stimulate the economy and provide jobs.