Assorted developments from here and the near abroad:
• Roy Morgan has made one of its arbitrarily timed drops of its federal voting intention polling, which it conducts weekly but usually keeps to itself. This one has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, which based on the accompanying chart would appear to be its lowest point since the government’s coronavirus bounce. The primary votes are Coalition 42.5%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 10.5% and One Nation 4%. The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2593.
• Greg Brown of The Australian ($) reports the alliance in Victorian Labor between the Industrial Left and much of the Right is set to survive the demise of Adem Somyurek, who was generally credited with welding it together. This is due to a shared concern to prevent the Socialist Left gaining advantage from the present disarray, and the Industrial Left’s determination to secure the new federal seat shortly to be created in Victoria. However, the report quotes an unidentified Labor skeptic saying such manoeuvres are redundant since the national executive’s three-year takeover of the state branch means they are “not going to have a vote in anything”.
• In a review of Victorian Labor’s increasingly complicated factional terrain, Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review ($) notes party convention dictates that the national executive allocates seats to each faction after disruptive redistributions, to whom it then falls to fill them through internal ballots. However, a less messy option under the circumstances would simply be to guarantee the preselections of all sitting members. The most likely beneficiary would be Senator Kim Carr, who at 64 and after nearly three decades in the Senate would otherwise have to reckon with “a younger generation of left-wing faction operators who want to replace him”.
• With New Zealand’s election less than three months, I will henceforth be making note here of poll results from that country, which come by at a rate of one or two a month. The latest is from Colmar Brunton for 1 News, one of three poll series that reports with any regularity, together with Reid Research for Newshub and Roy Morgan for reasons of its own. After all three showed an astonishing blowout in favour of Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government last month, the latest result finds a substantial correction with Labour down nine to 50% and National down up by the same amount to 38%. Between the two polls, the National Party ditched its leader and Health Minister David Clark blotted the government’s coronavirus copybook by humiliating the country’s chief medical officer at a press conference. With minor parties needing to either clear a 5% national vote threshold or win a constituency seat to qualify for a share of seats proportionate to their vote, the poll finds the Greens up one to 6%, ACT New Zealand up a point to 3% and New Zealand First down one to 2%. ACT New Zealand should be safe thanks to party leader David Seymour’s hold on the seat of Epsom, but New Zealand First would rely on the long shot of one-time Labour MP Shane Jones poaching the seat of Northland, which party leader Winston Peters failed to carry in 2017.
Guytaur
Generally people know there is a pandemic, and the rest of world isnt doing well.
The BLM protests around the world, a case in point.
But the politics for us of course are local.
ie. How will it affect me and my family.
BLM protests took place all around Australia, not just Melbourne.
Sydney had a very large protest. Why are they immune from covid being an issue as a result.
sprocket_ @ #579 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 9:00 am
They’re just running this up the flagpole to see who salutes. A lot of water to flow under the bridge yet. I think this is the minimum increase that will actually happen.
C@t, any comment on Paul Fletcher’s shirt? Seen similar at Lowes
Victoria
Yes. That’s where our media is basically lying to people about the virus.
By painting the most optimistic outlook they are saying you are not going to be affected for long.
This is what happens when you become government stenographers.
The articles about the recession we are in. The realistic time the virus is with us are glossed over. Leading to a false sense of complacency with the public.
Given the naturally immense pressure to restore economic reopening it’s almost criminal for the media to be glossing over the grim reality.
This NY Times article says what everyone is thinking.. it goes on to record a lot of angry people views
WASHINGTON — More than four months into fighting the coronavirus in the United States, the shared sacrifice of millions of Americans suspending their lives — with jobs lost, businesses shuttered, daily routines upended — has not been enough to beat back a virus whose staying power around the world is only still being grasped.
The number of new U.S. cases this last week surged dangerously high, to levels not ever seen in the course of the pandemic, especially in states that had rushed to reopen their economies. The result has been a realization for many Americans that however much they have yearned for a return to normalcy, their leaders have failed to control the coronavirus pandemic. And there is little clarity on what comes next.
“There has to be a clear coherent sustained communication, and that has absolutely not happened,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious diseases specialist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville. “We’ve had just the opposite and now it’s hard to unring a whole series of bells.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/us/after-asking-americans-to-sacrifice-in-shutdown-leaders-failed-to-control-virus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
I thought Country Labor was a poorly thought out party branding devised by the party’s spin team, whose idea of NSW country was a weekend trying some heavy reds in Mudgee.
I was at an election meeting In Port Macquarie once which was hijacked By Nationals provocateurs who peppered the candidate with questions on who Country Labor’s leader was? where the headquarters were? What policies did it have that were different from the ALP? Was this some sort of slick city advertising gimmick ?
Always thought it would have been an ALP govt the would increase Newstart. Same as i thought it would have been an ALP govt that would legislate for marriage equality.
The ALP had the chance to do both in 2007- 2013 but were more focussed on fighting each other.
Paul Fletcher doing a very good impression of an evasive, condescending prick on Insiders.
Bad news for ScoMo – PVO has come out calling a fourth term for the Libs this morning. Ouch!
By the way, the Somyurek article in the Sunday Herald Sun is a bit of a fizzer. Holding fire as he is going down the legal path. Blames Byrne and is not a fan of Kim Carr but not much else was revealed.
Pork Barilaro back to form, with that letter
Her Indoors has started shouting at the screen. This is a first.
sprocket_ @ #604 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 9:23 am
Why? It’s boring. 🙂
BK
Fletcher is losing a lot of votes in Eden Monaro today.
“I’m right even when I’m wrong”
Fletcher using the second tenet, on the “your ABC”
Lars Von Trier @ #610 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 9:33 am
If you listen to episode 59 of this podcast, you will hear the reasons why he says that:
https://10play.com.au/the-professor-and-the-hack
Paul Fletcher has the ‘Concerned Face’ look down pat.
Who knew that PvO was one of Malcolm Turnbull’s chief branch stackers in the branch stack against Peter King? I didn’t until I listened to that podcast.
Speers was in danger of sounding like a left wing journalist.
Fancy calling the efficiency dividend a fund cutting mechanism.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 28, 2020 at 9:36 am
Lars Von Trier @ #610 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 9:33 am
Bad news for ScoMo – PVO has come out calling a fourth term for the Libs this morning. Ouch!
If you listen to episode 59 of this podcast, you will hear the reasons why he says that:
https://10play.com.au/the-professor-and-the-hack
________________________________
If you were PVO you’d get out of the predictions business wouldn’t you? Still Malcolm Mackeras got it wrong for years and it didn’t hurt his career as a pundit.
Mackerras has a blog. He’s called it for ScoMo as well!!! But for Biden too !!!
Bushfire Bill @ #613 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 9:34 am
Please post the script. 🙏
Coorey makes it sound like it’s Labor playing politics when it calls for clarity over JobKeeper and Seeker.
Lol guytaur
C@tmomma @ #619 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 7:38 am
I suspected given he has always been in the tank for MT.
Am I allowed to say that David Speers has really skinny legs? 😉
Good rant by Karvelas on the arts
Coorey, the apologist, for a hapless government successfully overseeing bad policy during an economic disaster.
I’m liking this Shalaliah insider – more useful than boring old Liberal booster Phil Corey
Amy Remeikis should be on the Insiders couch not in cartoon corner.
I reckon there’s going to be a flood of people choosing to study things like Aged Care, where there is not likely to be a downturn in job vacancies.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/27/micheal-martin-irish-taoiseach-coalition-fianna-fail-fine-gael
Note the description for the Green Party.
A lesson for some posters on this site. Despite what the media tells you.
Listening to this podcast:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/barrs-obstruction-trumps-testing-slowdown-mail-in-voting/id1514968525?i=1000479844830
Questions:
– What is in the Deutsche Bank stuff that Trump is hiding?
– Will we ever learn what Berman was getting close to that necessitated him being fired?
– If Trump leaves office will he finally be prosecuted?
– Can a candidate with a criminal conviction run for president?
g
Another multiparty government. Hooray.
It’s very importantnt to know this about the Arts funding package (something I didn’t know anyway):
The package announced this week, three months after the arts virtually went bust overnight, was marketed as a $250 million stimulus. But as explained by the ABC’s Laura Tingle, most of that money is in concessional loans and grant money that organisations must compete for, and which will only kick in once we are allowed to gather in large numbers again. We don’t know when that will be.
When Morrison announced the funding, he couldn’t even bring himself to acknowledge that it was for violinists, actors, dancers, comedians, playwrights, or anyone else whom he suspects might have once worn a black skivvy to a university party.
“This package is as much about supporting the tradies who build stage sets, or computer specialists who create the latest special effects, as it is about supporting actors and performers in major productions,” he told the gathered media.
Those tradies got their own stimulus package a few weeks ago, and while no one denies the contribution of techies and tradies to the arts, they are support crew.
Even in writing this column, I second-guessed whether an admission that I prefer modern dance to footy would mark me out as elitist.
They would not be there but for the creative passion and diligence of artists. It would not have killed the Prime Minister to acknowledge that.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bring-in-the-barbarians-the-morrison-government-is-marching-us-towards-anti-intellectualism-20200627-p556s8.html
Scott Morrison is ‘Mean and Tricky’ on steroids!
Speers cheered me immensely by arguing repeatedly with “Two Track Fletcher”.
Confessions @ #634 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:13 am
‘fess,
The SDNY investigation goes on, led now by the Assistant Prosecutor. So, we’ll see.
So, no complaints about Speers constantly interrupting Fletcher.
Peg
Fletcher was blatantly lying and we all knew it. We heard all his stories yesterday.
Pegasus @ #639 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:19 am
So, you wanted Paul Fletcher to be able to recite his talking points uninterrupted?
Honestly, the Greenites need to understand the meaning of nuance. For example, David Speers interrupting Paul Fletcher can be a good thing and David Speers interruptions are not, in and of themselves, a bad thing.
Covering black deaths in Australia led me to a breakdown, but that’s the position this country puts Aboriginal journalists in
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-28/covering-black-deaths-in-australia-led-me-to-a-breakdown/12390416
—–
We asked about racist incidents since COVID-19 started. You offered solutions to the problem
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-28/racism-asian-australians-coronavirus-pandemic-solutions/12385908
lizzie @ #640 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:21 am
And that is the one thing Point-Scoring Pegasus refuses to acknowledge.
I see the point I am making is too subtle for lizzie and Cat. Never mind.
C@tmomma @ #638 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 8:19 am
Barr has shown that there are no depths to corruption that he won’t stoop to in order to do Trump’s bidding. I’m assuming he’ll continue to run interference on anything that gets close to exposing the crimes of the Trump family.
lizzie,
Hunker down. Incoming condescending sneer from Pegasus in 3..2..1.. 😆
Ooops, too late. 😆
Fletcher’s pretence that commercial news outlets deserve the same support as the ABC can definitely put a TV screen in danger.
When the discussion turned to the BLM rallies and asssigning blame for Victoria’s spike, Speers did mention Shorten’s cheesed off comment. Speers – being unbiased.
Confessions @ #645 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:23 am
‘fess,
He’s going to run out of time eventually. The SDNY Prosecutorial office has a long list of prosecutors and he will have to fire them one by one, if that’s what he’s wanting to do to protect Trump.
That is, if the House don’t institute an Impeachment of Barr himself before that. They’re getting close.
Pegasus
Do you really think you are subtle?