Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires

A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research poll has still more results on coronavirus, together with some findings on climate change. On the former count, the poll found 63% rating a second wave of coronavirus as restrictions are eased as very likely or quite likely, with only 13% rating it very unlikely; more than 60% expected international travel restrictions to remain for between one and two years; 70% thought it would take between one and two years for employment to recover; 60% expected a prolonged impact on the housing market; more than 60% expected a vaccine would be developed “over the next few years”; and 58% that the population would build resistance through exposure over that time. Despite it all, 45% said they felt very or somewhat positive about the next 12 months compared with 33% for very or somewhat negative.

On climate change, 52% now think Australia is not doing enough, down eight on November, with 25% holding the contrary view, up three. Forty-two per cent said they were now more concerned about climate change than they were a year ago, with a further 46% saying they were no more or less concerned. Full results from the poll will be published later today. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires”

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  1. Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk

    The United States reported a record 37,077 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, the highest one-day count of the entire pandemic, according to data from Johns Hopkins University and CNN.

    The state of Texas reported 5,996 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, its highest number of reported cases in one day yet.

    United States :

    Coronavirus Cases:
    2,504,588

    Deaths:
    126,780

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Dr. Tom Frieden @DrTomFrieden

    It took the world about 100 days to go from 0 cases to 1 million detected cases. Then:
    1 to 2 mil: 12 days
    2 to 3 mil: 13 days
    3 to 4 mil: 12 days
    4 to 5 mil: 11 days
    5 to 6 mil: 10 days
    6 to 7 mil: 8 days
    7 to 8 mil: 8 days
    8 to 9 mil: 6 days

    The pandemic is accelerating.

  2. quart @ #2298 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 10:46 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga:

    [‘I think you’ll find that “court inquiry” refers to the fact that it was initiated within the High Court.’]

    You’re obviously right but a “court inquiry” conveys the wrong message: those with little knowledge of the law may think that he’s been hung, drawn & quartered. Whereas, all that has ensued is the chief justice found that based on the report of the chief registrar (I think),
    Heydon engaged in sexual harassment, findings that can be challenged.

    As I was writing the post I was thinking how you’d refer to the human infrastructure that allows the High Court to function.

    Within Government it’s easy, you have the different Departments, but with these independent bodies I’m not sure what the equivalent term would be. 🙂

  3. Barney

    You have still not realised how a President Biden saying Green New Deal on the evening news on a very regular basis is going to change world politics.

  4. Wow!

    Dana McCauley
    @Dana_Adele
    ·
    5m
    No wonder Brendan Murphy says hotel quarantine is “not perfect”. Victoria’s Deputy Chief Health Officer Dr Annaliese van Diemen says about 30 per cent of returned international travellers are refusing to have a COVID-19 test.

  5. “Backing coal and fossil fuels over science is what Trump the LNP and Labor have in common.”

    So what?

    And anyway, not sure how it matters is your change my thinking. Won’t win the ALP or the Greens the election.

  6. southsays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 12:13 pm
    Windhover,
    I agree and it’s possible to create those conditions now. all labor has to do is a door stop in front of ASIO and demand that procedual fairness be given to this man.
    And to then pivot and call out asio for being political, and then to demand they prove they are not and to state your conditions.

    It’s essentially a no loss situation for Labor. If they attack now they may not get anywhere, but right now they are just taking body blow after body blow and not doing anything to counter. Albo’s certainly going to loose the next election at this rate. Clever speeches to the NPC won’t change many minds, He may as well go down swinging.
    ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

    My comments are not intended to be taken as a call to political action by any political party, though ultimately the party of opposition must rally the forces available. Whether this is done by having academics, lawyers or bodies interested in the protection of civil liberties and prevention of corruption or by politicians is a moot point of political strategy.

    I am previously on record in PB as to the answer to the biggest question of all time: What must the ALP do to win the next election?

    My answer is to observe that prior to the last election Scomo poured beer on his head and Shorten didn’t. If Albo pours more beer on his head than Scomo does my respect for the Australian voting public is such that I believe the election win would be inevitable.

    I have read much learned analysis in these parts and elsewhere that offers very complex answers to the question, answers that literally sail over the heads of the Australian voting public, and almost everyone else who hasn’t already supported the particular answer given. So today we have Blobbit suggesting lying to the public abour policy platform, Mundo demanding the ALP engage in Abbottonean negativity (if its sarcasm can be discerned to mean anything).

    Far too complex for mine. A big bucket of beer poured in public over Albo’s scone won’t go over anyone’s head and will bring the voters like fish biting at chum.

    This has the wonderful benefit of leaving those of us who wish to discuss how Australia can be better governed to concentrate on the policy benefits of one position or another without recourse to whether it might be popular or not.

  7. lizzie @ #2307 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 10:56 am

    Wow!

    Dana McCauley
    @Dana_Adele
    ·
    5m
    No wonder Brendan Murphy says hotel quarantine is “not perfect”. Victoria’s Deputy Chief Health Officer Dr Annaliese van Diemen says about 30 per cent of returned international travellers are refusing to have a COVID-19 test.

    It should be a condition of being allowed to return to Australia and being released from quarantine.

  8. AR “Fair enough. Either way is fine.”

    From an out comes point of view yes. From a winning the election point of view I think the order is important.

    I’m concerned about the latter so the former can happen.

  9. “So today we have Blobbit suggesting lying to the public abour policy platform”

    Sort of. I don’t think there’s a need to be completely honest let’s say. There’s no need to talk about every policy your want to implement.

    Also, completely agree with the beer idea.

    “This has the wonderful benefit of leaving those of us who wish to discuss how Australia can be better governed to concentrate on the policy benefits of one position or another without recourse to whether it might be popular or not.”

    I guess I’m arguing for keeping the two things seperate.

  10. from what I have read so far regarding ASIO investigation.
    There is no suggestion that the Labor MP has acted improperly.
    The investigation is surrounding whether infiltration has occurred and whether it was unwittingly.

  11. Michael Purvis
    @michaelpurvis64
    ·
    17m
    A study should be done showing the Links between People Listening to Liberal Politicians and an increase in COVID19

    Evidence from VicLibs suggests that they couldn’t give a stuff about illness or deaths as long as they can have a political win.

  12. The problem for Blobbit and Labor is that if you are for fossil fuels you vote LNP.

    Big denial of this simple reality.

  13. I guess ASIO and Christian Porter wasnt concerned about this

    Liberal Andrew Robb takes $880k China job as soon as he finishes in parliament
    Nick McKenzie, Richard Baker, Chris Uhlmann
    Updated Jun 5, 2017 – 9.26pm, first published at 9.15pm

    Save

    Share
    Former Australian trade minister Andrew Robb walked straight out of parliament last year and into an $880,000 a year job with a billionaire closely aligned to the Chinese Communist Party and its key trade policy.

  14. NSW is still telling Victorians they are not welcome but NSW also needs to be careful:

    “NSW has recorded six new cases of coronavirus from 15,278 tests. Five are in hotel quarantine and one is a year 7 student from Camden High School in Sydney’s south-west who attended school all week. 6 cases remain active, according to the new criteria.” (Guardian updates)

  15. guytaur says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 12:55 pm

    Barney

    You have still not realised how a President Biden saying Green New Deal on the evening news on a very regular basis is going to change world politics.
    ———————————————–
    I get it that you follow American politics closely but because the Americans and Australians do so many things differently then it is unlikely Biden talking about a Green New Deal will make any meaningful impact on Australia.

    You remind me of the person who tried telling me we needed to follow America in having a $15 dollars an hour minimum wage except Australia’s minimum wage is higher than $15 dollars an hour.

    Australian and American share many things in common but there are countless differences.

  16. Lizzie

    The Victorian libs can’t make up their mind
    How dare dictator Dan go hard on restrictions.
    Schools and businesses should have reopened months ago according to them.
    Now we relaxed restrictions too early.

    Hypocrites and partisan hacks the lot of them.

  17. citizen

    What I have found interesting with NSW is that they have had several students over a few weeks testing positive, but doesn’t appear that any close contacts of these students got covid

  18. Beemer

    There are none so blind as those that will not see.

    It only took a few days for the Black Lives Matter reporting to impact politics in Australia.

    That’s with a White Nationalist in the White House.

  19. Should have added. Whereas Victoria have then gone on to find close contacts with covid and thereafter form part of a cluster.

  20. Woolworths reintroducing toilet paper purchase limit across Australia:

    Woolworths will this afternoon reinstate a two-pack limit on toilet paper and paper towel in all Australian stores following a recent surge in demand across different parts of the country.

    The precautionary move is designed to support appropriate social distancing in stores over the weekend and ensure all customers have access to the products they need …

    Woolworths Supermarkets managing director Claire Peters said: “We’ve regrettably started to see elevated demand for toilet roll move outside Victoria in the past 24 hours.

    “While the demand is not at the same level as Victoria, we’re taking preventative action now to get ahead of any excessive buying this weekend and help maintain social distancing in our stores.

    (Guardian updates at 12:51)

  21. this made me laugh

    Steve Schmidt
    @SteveSchmidtSES
    ·
    6h
    Looking at Trump I was thinking that this is exactly what it would be like if Charles Lindbergh and George Wallace had gotten married, adopted a sociopath, dyed him orange and saw him become President.

  22. Guytaur
    Black lives matter only made an impact among political activist and people already interested in social justice issues.

  23. Guytaur
    Show me where it changed?

    Indigenous Australians have been concerned with deaths in custody for decades and dispossession for over 200 years so no there was no impact.

  24. Victoria @ #2322 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 1:10 pm

    citizen

    What I have found interesting with NSW is that they have had several students over a few weeks testing positive, but doesn’t appear that any close contacts of these students got covid

    Victoria, this is where we need Cud Chewer!

    In his absence (and RHWombat’s) I’ve been following an old mate of mine on Twitter, Greg Dore. Greg is an infectious diseases expert and provides some great information on a daily basis. Always evidence-based, never dogmatic.

    He seems to be quietly raising an eyebrow over these school cases. It just doesn’t make sense that these kids would be infected without any of their adult contacts also being infected.

    Would be great if they turned out to be false positives. Failing that, it would be good to have some explanation of exactly what’s occurring.

  25. Barney in Tanjung Bunga:

    [‘Within Government it’s easy, you have the different Departments, but with these independent bodies I’m not sure what the equivalent term would be. ‘]

    I’m not sure if the High Court has ever held an inquiry into one of its own. It came close when the then Labor A-G intended to have three retired judges to inquire as to whether Murphy was in breach of s.72(ii) of the Constitution (equivalent to impeachment) but was abandoned on the ground that he was suffering terminal cancer. I guess it would be structured along the lines of a similar complaint lodged in the Public Service. Kiefel, CJ simply refers to it as an investigation.

  26. Guytaur
    It is you that needs to think about it because African Americans face similar but different issues than those faced by Indigenous Australians.

    We had a royal commission into deaths in custody 25 years ago so no Black Lives Matters means little in the Australian political context in terms of changing politics.

  27. Spray

    Where is cud chewer?

    Yeah it has had me scratching my head. Cos the students that have tested positive here in Victoria were than linked to family clusters.

    It is really strange.

  28. Guytaur
    At least i understand the differences between Australia and America and understand that Black Lives Matters has not changed Australian politics because the issues are already well known.

  29. He is not impressed,

    Greg Barns SC
    @BarnsGreg
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @Ageinvestigates

    @jttozer
    and
    @smh
    This is disgraceful. Authoritarianism and 1950s reds under the bed stuff. If
    @SMoselmane
    was an avid supporter of Israel or the US he would be an
    @ASIO
    asset. Freedom of speech and thought is on the line here. Oh and watch ASIO leak juicy smears against this MP
    @AustLawAlliance

  30. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:21 pm
    “Guytaur
    It is you that needs to think about it because African Americans face similar but different issues than those faced by Indigenous Australians.”

    It would be fair to assume that Australian Aboriginals have more in common with American Native Indians than with other groups.

  31. Beemer

    No you are in denial.

    Black Lives Matter is here to stay.
    Even Morrison will have to change position.
    It’s called a civil rights movement.

    Just like in the 60’s change is coming.

    I am no huge fan of the US but I don’t deny the power of the worlds superpower

  32. Bucephalus
    Exactly and many of the problems steam from the lost of land ownership and traditional customs which is different to the African Americans that face deep seated legacy issues.

  33. If Greg Barns could explain how the US or Israel are a threat to Australia I would perhaps understand his position a bit better.

  34. My advice for the Greens would be to run 240 volts through Bandt.
    He is just not cutting through.
    The kiddies are starting to wake up that the Greens are part of the problem.
    Bandt has the Greens polling down to 10.5%
    Bandt has lost an MP to infighting. Said MP is going to the crossbenches to work for the environment. Something he could not do while the reds are all powerful.
    He is running a massive policy fraud: The Red’s ‘Green New Deal’.
    Environmentalists are getting it that they have been used and abused in classical Front organization tactics by the Reds.

    My advice to Bandt would be to:
    1. ignore Labor
    2. get outraged and to shout out loud about everything that the government does. If Bandt has any doubts about what to shout about then the answer is everything.
    3. forget about sticking with all the losing culture war stock weaponry
    4. adopt all the Government’s policies.

  35. vogon poet

    Well I would think that most victorians will be travelling to their beach or country ppty. Hopefully they will practise good social distancing etc,

    It is better than a million students and their parents interacting via schools and public transport over the next two weeks

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