Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires

A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research poll has still more results on coronavirus, together with some findings on climate change. On the former count, the poll found 63% rating a second wave of coronavirus as restrictions are eased as very likely or quite likely, with only 13% rating it very unlikely; more than 60% expected international travel restrictions to remain for between one and two years; 70% thought it would take between one and two years for employment to recover; 60% expected a prolonged impact on the housing market; more than 60% expected a vaccine would be developed “over the next few years”; and 58% that the population would build resistance through exposure over that time. Despite it all, 45% said they felt very or somewhat positive about the next 12 months compared with 33% for very or somewhat negative.

On climate change, 52% now think Australia is not doing enough, down eight on November, with 25% holding the contrary view, up three. Forty-two per cent said they were now more concerned about climate change than they were a year ago, with a further 46% saying they were no more or less concerned. Full results from the poll will be published later today. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires”

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  1. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:27 pm
    “Bucephalus
    Exactly and many of the problems steam from the lost of land ownership and traditional customs which is different to the African Americans that face deep seated legacy issues.”

    And Australia and the US aren’t on their Pat Malone around the world with this being the issue for original inhabitants in the face of colonisation and modernisation.

  2. Beemer

    Your pretending I am saying that just shows how much denial there is about how climate heating debate is changing.

    You are doing well at proving my point

  3. Noely ⚡️
    @YaThinkN
    ·
    23m
    “infiltrated by Chinese government agents”

    I know I am not in NSW, but I have never heard of Shaoquett Moselmane in my life? Why would Chinese give a rats about a backbencher for a State Govt from a party that are not in power & haven’t been for ages?
    Shaoquett Moselmane
    Federal Police raid NSW Labor MP’s home, office
    Officers from the AFP and ASIO raid NSW Labor MP Shaoquett Moselmane’s Sydney home and office, as Opposition Leader Jodi McKay confirms his party membership will be suspended.

  4. a rsays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:29 pm
    The US is lousy with C19 and doing basically nothing about it?

    That’s not really an issue that ASIO would be interested in, surprisingly.

    Is that a question or a statement?

    Define nothing – because I’m pretty sure that there is a huge amount of effort going into dealing with it.

    I’m interested in your views on all the other countries that are getting many thousands of new cases every day.

  5. Guytaur
    You are the one using American terminology and claiming American politics are changing Australian politics.

  6. Q. What must the Greens do to turn around their 10.5% polling?
    A. Abuse Labor for (1) not having Greens policies and (2) not behaving politically exactly like the Greens.

    If ONLY Labor was as abusive as the Greens Labor could have 10.5% of the vote as well!

  7. Trump has presumably convinced his 40 million core followers not to have anything at all to do with the Virus.

    And they are doing their best.

  8. fulvio Sammut

    Scomo said nothing to see here. He was very supportive of her.
    She cried a few Tears. All good now apparently.

  9. Pretty sure that at the top of this thread there is some polling on climate change that says more Australians are less concerned about climate change than a year ago than those who are more concerned.
    That’s after the worst bushfire season.
    The votes that are in for climate change are already baked in.

  10. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:34 pm
    “Isn’t there a Chinese lady in Chisholm,
    who ought to be investigated, but isn’t?”

    Are you being racist or just a fucktard?

    If you have actionable information I recommend that you contact ASIO.

  11. So it seems the argument from many bludgers over the years is that being honest is a recipe for disaster in #auspol.

    Yet many of the same would argue and berate the media and others day in day out, for not being truthful and factual, with justification.

    So is Australia and particularly auspol so terminally riven with lies, BS and puffery about ourselves, that actually truth simply doesn’t count for anything?

    Is lying to the public and doing something completely different if elected standard operating procedure within the ALP/LNP duopoly?

    In that case why bother with any political organisation, media company, social, economic or environmental policy and just surrender to the never ending pile of lying bastardry and BS that the current powerful and wealthy elite, that’s the LNP and their fossil fuel cronies, have to dish out? Or just cave and help them whenever you can be “bipartisan”?

    It does seem the gutlessness and craven lack of push for any semblance of truth just reinforces the idiotic business as usual, nothing to see hear, attitudes of some Australians.

    You need only observe PB, where it seems a particular generation is far happier to try and trash talk Greens for years and years. Whilst caving like giggling children to the various idiotic tropes particularly popular amongst the older cohorts in Australia. Older cohorts who seem happy to trash their childrens and descendents future for a probably unfounded belief they’ll get few more pieces of silver.

    If lying and BS is standard ops, then I would have thought any actual rational intelligent and informed person would realise that even more noise needs to be made, more balloons need bursting.

    Those arguing for more subterfuge and dishonesty to advance the country and auspol deserve and receive my contempt more than my respect. Even more so when they argue that further subterfuge and lies is the only way to advance their own particular party agenda.

  12. Bucephalus @ #2358 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 1:33 pm

    Is that a question or a statement?

    A proposed example of how the US threatens Australia.

    Define nothing – because I’m pretty sure that there is a huge amount of effort going into dealing with it.

    I think “nothing effective” is what I was going for. “Nothing sane” also works, considering that the Federal push for reopening came when the nation was still averaging ~25k new cases every single day. Their priorities are broken, and all their optimistic talk about having made it through the “first wave” was premature to the point of outright delusion.

    I’m interested in your views on all the other countries that are getting many thousands of new cases every day.

    They should take a page from New Zealand’s and Australia’s (minus Victoria) book on how to respond to the virus, and get their situations under control. Probably by starting effective action a month ago at least. So they need to get working on time travel, as well.

    And we should not be allowing travel to/from any of them until they do.

  13. ‘Quoll says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:40 pm

    So it seems the argument from many bludgers over the years is that being honest is a recipe for disaster in #auspol.’

    I wouldn’t say that. The Greens are dishonest and it has got them to 10.5% after 30 years.

  14. I have met Shaoquett Moselmane only once. I was invited to a book launch he staged in Macquarie St. The book was a history of the late White Australia Policy which had a favourable theme on the engagement between Australia and China in the 50s and 60s. It has been universally panned by reviewers.
    However the room was full of Chinese students who treated the author with such enthusiasm that i thought Malcolm Fraser hed returned to Beijing. I suspect that the Chinese Embassy was behind the OTT reception but the question arises why they would think this worthwhile and why Moselmane would be considered a person of influence worthy of grooming

  15. Quoll

    It’s an attitude that will see The Greens and the New Liberals become the new major political parties. With maybe Central Alliance in with a chance.

  16. “Those arguing for more subterfuge and dishonesty to advance the country and auspol deserve and receive my contempt more than my respect. Even more so when they argue that further subterfuge and lies is the only way to advance their own particular party agenda.”

    I guess since I’m being sub-poll bludgered. Yeah, it is sad. I guess I’m feeling a bit broken.

    Also, I’m being a little hyperbolic. I don’t think there’s a need to outright lie – I don’t think the ALP needs to claim it’s going to build new coal stations, for example. But I don’t see the need to bang on about policies that are likely to be vote losers.

  17. Cat

    Great thought out post from you.

    I am not surprised you are in the defend Labor at all costs camp.

    Now you like Beemer can’t even accept the impact of a US President saying Green New Deal on the evening news will have.

  18. The latest Morgan poll (13/14 & 20/21, June) records the Tories’ 2PP at 50.5%, down 2%; Labor, 49.5%, up 2%. Mavis thinks that Mundo will be pleased?

  19. “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:47 pm
    Quoll

    It’s an attitude that will see The Greens and the New Liberals become the new major political parties. With maybe Central Alliance in with a chance.”

    When?

    If the climate crisis is urgent, which it is, then is losing one’s integrity a cost worth taking?

  20. Vic ALP: Branch Stacking – beat that MoFos

    NSW ALP: I’ll see your Branch Stacking and Raise you Foreign Intelligence Penetration – how’s that MoFos?

    Vic ALP: Fold. Well played.

  21. Woolworths & Coles must think we’re heading into a second C-19 spike evidenced by it imposing a two-pack limit on toilet paper.

  22. Blobbit @ #2379 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 11:54 am

    “Those arguing for more subterfuge and dishonesty to advance the country and auspol deserve and receive my contempt more than my respect. Even more so when they argue that further subterfuge and lies is the only way to advance their own particular party agenda.”

    I guess since I’m being sub-poll bludgered. Yeah, it is sad. I guess I’m feeling a bit broken.

    Also, I’m being a little hyperbolic. I don’t think there’s a need to outright lie – I don’t think the ALP needs to claim it’s going to build new coal stations, for example. But I don’t see the need to bang on about policies that are likely to be vote losers.

    It would be impossible to present and talk about every policy you have in an election campaign.

    You choose the ones that are important to most people and will have an impact with swing voters.

    Why would you highlight a policy that might have a negative impact with these voters?

    This is not lying to voters, these policies are published on the Party’s website.

  23. a rsays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:43 pm

    “A proposed example of how the US threatens Australia.”

    That isn’t how threats are assessed, strangely. That’s a risk but it’s not a threat.

  24. BKsays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:57 pm
    “I have just been YouGoved – Voting intention, PPM, etc.”

    Did it make your eyes water like a COVID test?

  25. “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:02 pm
    Blobbit

    Keep arguing that killing your grandkids for jobs is good policy.
    Labor will lose.”

    I’m not arguing that’s it’s good policy. I’m
    1. arguing that it’s an election losing policy at this point in time in Australia
    2. arguing that you don’t go into an election with policies that will turn off voters

  26. Beemer

    That will change when President Biden talks about it.

    Could be sooner. Could happen during the campaign period. Our press so loves covering US elections.

  27. guytaur says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:54 pm

    “Now you like Beemer can’t even accept the impact of a US President saying Green New Deal on the evening news will have.”

    We had Obama, the greatest Orator since JFK, for eight years telling us what to do on Climate Change – how’d that work for you?

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