Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires

A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research poll has still more results on coronavirus, together with some findings on climate change. On the former count, the poll found 63% rating a second wave of coronavirus as restrictions are eased as very likely or quite likely, with only 13% rating it very unlikely; more than 60% expected international travel restrictions to remain for between one and two years; 70% thought it would take between one and two years for employment to recover; 60% expected a prolonged impact on the housing market; more than 60% expected a vaccine would be developed “over the next few years”; and 58% that the population would build resistance through exposure over that time. Despite it all, 45% said they felt very or somewhat positive about the next 12 months compared with 33% for very or somewhat negative.

On climate change, 52% now think Australia is not doing enough, down eight on November, with 25% holding the contrary view, up three. Forty-two per cent said they were now more concerned about climate change than they were a year ago, with a further 46% saying they were no more or less concerned. Full results from the poll will be published later today. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires”

Comments Page 49 of 55
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  1. BK says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:03 pm

    They always ring me at the worst times – just when I’m cooking or eating dinner or just got home from work so I rarely do them.

  2. “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:06 pm
    Blobbit

    You are the one arguing that supporting science is radical.”

    No. I’m arguing that supporting a science based climate policy in Australia as your main, or a major policy platform, will not put the ALP (or the LNP, or the Greens) in an election winning position at the next election.

    More broadly, I’m suggesting that a policy platform that is viewed as “radical”, that is one that will result in major changes to a lot of peoples lives, is a very difficult sell from opposition, unless there is a perceived crisis going on.

  3. Back on the issue of age cohorts in politics and particularly in relation to doing something about climate change, at least in the Anglosphere.

    Someone who I would have probably described as a tosser, life peer and ex-Conservative MP who is a boomer himself, actually provides, in comparison to many regular PB posters, actual data to back up their assertion that differences between the boomers and likely futures for younger generations is now the biggest demarcation in politics. Not class, education or other conventional fault lines.

    Whatever you might think as an indivudal boomer. You have on average garnered more than any other human generation at greater cost to the world’s ecological systems and resources, and in the English speaking world many appear to determined to stuff everything up for future genrations.

    Arguing for lying and BS as standard operating practice in auspol seems just a further symptom of this phenomena.

    Have the Boomers Pinched Their Children’s Futures? – with Lord David Willetts
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXzvjBYW8A

  4. Blobbitsays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:09 pm

    The plonkers just don’t get it. A science based approach means that diesel, petrol and Jet Fuel are going to have to cost a shed load more and that is going to come straight out of the hip pocket of voters and that’s going to hurt the poor a lot more than the wealthy – now sell that. Geniuses.

  5. Buce

    Then your point has no relevance to the future. Unless you think Trump will turn around the polling on Election Day.

    Unlikely but certainly a real dark horse win could happen.

  6. Jennifer Bechwati
    @jenbechwati
    ·
    20m
    BREAKING: Prime Minister
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    on the raids: “We won’t cop anyone coming and seeking to interfere in our political system…We won’t cop it, we are a resilient people, we will stand up to it and we will take action, as what you’ve seen today demonstrates” #7NEWS #auspol
    Quote Tweet

    Jennifer Bechwati
    @jenbechwati
    · 2h
    7News Political Editor @Riley7news reports the raid on the NSW Labor MP was part of a joint operation by the Counter Foreign Interference Taskforce. Full details at 6pm. #7NEWS #auspol twitter.com/7NewsSydney/st…

  7. Here’s what the left is up against

    “Morrison was asked about the September cut off date for JobKeeper payments.

    But as I assured, whether it be Qantas or those in the entertainment sector or the tourism, hospitality sector or regions like North Queensland, we get it, we understand that they are going to be hurting more for longer than other parts of the economy.”

    Basically an announcement that they’ll pork barrel every marginal electorate if that’s what they need to do.

  8. BKsays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:10 pm

    That sounds a lot better than phone polling for convenience. How do they know it is you?

  9. Blobbit

    Surrendering to the right is not the solution.

    Do that you should join the LNP. Be honest about your political platform.

    Decide. Honesty or pork barrelling.

  10. Victoria says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:13 pm
    Jennifer Bechwati
    @jenbechwati
    ·
    20m
    BREAKING: Prime Minister
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    on the raids: “We won’t cop anyone coming and seeking to interfere in our political system…

    —————————-

    Unless its a foreign media tycoon and his outlet , who controls and owns the corrupt lib/nats political parties

  11. “Bucephalussays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:12 pm
    Blobbitsays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:09 pm

    The plonkers just don’t get it. A science based approach means that diesel, petrol and Jet Fuel are going to have to cost a shed load more and that is going to come straight out of the hip pocket of voters and that’s going to hurt the poor a lot more than the wealthy – now sell that. Geniuses.”

    In a way yes. That’s pretty much going to have to happen. Where we (you and I) probably differ is that I think there’s going to have to be a pretty rapid move toward replacing those. It’ll “cost” money, but so what. In the short term people will need to be compensated.

    And all this talk about cost has been put lie to by the pandemic. How much has the global actions taken cost. Shitloads I guess.

  12. “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:15 pm
    Blobbit

    Surrendering to the right is not the solution.

    Do that you should join the LNP. Be honest about your political platform.

    Decide. Honesty or pork barrelling.”

    Is it really impossible in your view to hold these two views:
    1. pork barreling is bad
    2. it also wins elections

    Anyway, you missed my point. It wasn’t that it was a good thing, but that’s what the left is up against.

  13. If Morrison was serious about foreign influence in the political arena of Australia

    Morrison and his cronies would set up corrupt like commission into the media, IPA and political partys

  14. Blobbit

    Don’t forget the pandemic has made the Sydney Morning Herald start talking about why tax rises are a good thing.

    Basically arguing against tax cuts and Austerity.
    Take note of that change in the political landscape.

  15. Blobbit @ #2410 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 2:13 pm

    Here’s what the left is up against

    “Morrison was asked about the September cut off date for JobKeeper payments.

    But as I assured, whether it be Qantas or those in the entertainment sector or the tourism, hospitality sector or regions like North Queensland, we get it, we understand that they are going to be hurting more for longer than other parts of the economy.”

    Basically an announcement that they’ll pork barrel every marginal electorate if that’s what they need to do.

    ‘Here’s what the left is up against’
    Yes but the left knows this already surely?

    Scrooter is a clever, ruthless fucker and will do whatever he needs to to keep Labor in opposition. It’s their raison d’etre.

  16. Victoria @ #2409 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 2:13 pm

    Jennifer Bechwati
    @jenbechwati
    ·
    20m
    BREAKING: Prime Minister
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    on the raids: “We won’t cop anyone coming and seeking to interfere in our political system…We won’t cop it, we are a resilient people, we will stand up to it and we will take action, as what you’ve seen today demonstrates” #7NEWS #auspol
    Quote Tweet

    Jennifer Bechwati
    @jenbechwati
    · 2h
    7News Political Editor @Riley7news reports the raid on the NSW Labor MP was part of a joint operation by the Counter Foreign Interference Taskforce. Full details at 6pm. #7NEWS #auspol twitter.com/7NewsSydney/st…

    E-M is in the bag.

  17. guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:13 pm
    “Buce

    Then your point has no relevance to the future. ”

    You really are an idiot. You say Biden is going be spruiking a Green New Deal as POTUS. I pointed out Obama tried that crap on us for eight years with minimal impact – that’s relevant.

  18. Buce

    You really are an idiot. Australia was all momentum for climate policy in those years.

    You have no Alan Jones dominated media to run your campaign on.
    Your carbon tax lie has been admitted on national television.
    Now even the Minerals Council is talking zero emissions.

    So yeah no impact.

  19. Mavis @ #2382 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 1:55 pm

    The latest Morgan poll (13/14 & 20/21, June) records the Tories’ 2PP at 50.5%, down 2%; Labor, 49.5%, up 2%. Mavis thinks that Mundo will be pleased?

    Mundo would like to be pleased but Mundo doesn’t think it’s much to be pleased about.
    Labor needs to be at 53 minimum trending up…..with its leader preferred or level and Scrooter in a coma on life support.

  20. mundosays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:22 pm

    “E-M is in the bag.”

    Yes, for the ALP. Most voters don’t conflate State and Federal Issues. It might change a few votes but I think most will have already made up their minds. McBain can start measuring the drapes.

  21. Barney: “It should be a condition of being allowed to return to Australia and being released from quarantine.”

    I’d suggest a straight doubling of the quarantine period for those who refuse tests.

  22. guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:26 pm

    “Now even the Minerals Council is talking zero emissions.”

    Yeah, with no date target – so it’s marketing.

    I’m all for Zero emissions and me being a billionaire some time.

  23. Please stand by everybody, Bob Sprocket is waiting for his scripts to be uploaded. He will be along shortly to provide instant what about relief for long suffering labor hacks.

  24. “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:22 pm
    Blobbit

    You don’t get to whinge about pork barreling and then claim yes Labor should do it too.”

    Er, I didn’t actually say that. What I said was that that is what the left is up against. You can’t actually pork barrel from opposition, at best you can promise it. It was an illustration of the lack of morality on the governments part.

    In case I need to say it, I don’t think the ALP should go into the next election promising to pork barrel electorates.

  25. ar+Simon Katich

    Something for whichever one of you two was wanting to do a bit of snow work. 👿

    Air NZ CEO……. signs of domestic network strength ……. “Queenstown has been the real standout, though, with more bookings and capacity than this time last year.”

    On the plus side for you though there is still talk of opening travel with ‘clean’ States .

  26. c@tmomma: “I’m listening to a McKell Institute speech by Clare O’Neil MP. Boy is she top drawer.”

    This has been my view for a long time. So why isn’t she in the Shadow Cabinet ahead of several hacks and time-servers?

    And why isn’t Ed Husic even in the Shadow Ministry?

  27. So when I say that Albo isn’t up for fight iIget shouted down around here but…. there’s a deafening silence from the ALP on this one, Albo is entitled to a briefing from the head of ASIO on important matters (it’s in act). Having an ALP members officer raided probably warrants it.
    He should come out swinging! He should be talking about Gladys Lui and co. If this ALP member is guilty of something then so be it. But they are leaving themselves open to constant image problems with this shit.

    But past actions being a good indication of future actions i think Albo will go to the weekend and stay quiet.

    Every time the ALP speaks, it should start with “This corrupt government”
    It’s not liable if you call the government corrupt. And when the ask for specifics you just list off dodgy decisions.

    You have to want to win in order to win. I don’t think Albo wants it.

  28. “Now even the Minerals Council is talking zero emissions”

    Is an “interesting” body. There are two distinct bits to it – the pro-coal CC is a hoax arm, and then the iron ore side, which is much more worried that the idiots on the coal side will screw up the mining gig for everyone else.

    The minerals council has an interesting challenge keeping those two bodies aligned. Probably an impossible one in the long run.

  29. Bernard Collarey’s legal team getting a standing ovation from his supporters as they enter court here in Canberra

  30. Blobbit

    You should just talk about how Labor is for fixing it with a Federal ICAC.
    If you are against corruption and not admiring you emphasise how Labor is fighting corruption with policy.

    Edit: Like Albo and Andrews have done with branch stacking.
    Thus the LNP needing to resort to today’s raids.

  31. Guytaur,

    labor isn’t fighting corruption. It’s not in governemnt.

    Labor has to be in government to fight corruption. It won’t even call out corruption now.

  32. “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:34 pm
    Blobbit

    You should just talk about how Labor is for fixing it with a Federal ICAC.”

    ?

    Me talking about anything won’t win the ALP or the Greens government. I think ICAC is a good policy, but not of interest to most when unemployment is heading >10%

  33. Blobbit @ #2437 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 2:34 pm

    “Now even the Minerals Council is talking zero emissions”

    Is an “interesting” body. There are two distinct bits to it – the pro-coal CC is a hoax arm, and then the iron ore side, which is much more worried that the idiots on the coal side will screw up the mining gig for everyone else.

    The minerals council has an interesting challenge keeping those two bodies aligned. Probably an impossible one in the long run.

    Don’t forget the arm of the industry that wants to make coin out of digging up Rare Earths and supplying them to the new tech industries.

  34. This would apply to NZ and in many ways to Australia. With covid 19 international tourism is cactus. However surely much of the loss from the lack of incoming tourists bringing their $s could/would/should be made up for by locals forced to holiday here rather than taking their $s overseas ?
    There is also a loss of growth through immigration, both NZ and Australia are on that same dodgy deal. However NZ is seeing a hell of a lot of kiwis living overseas deciding NZ in “covid 19 world” is the place to go. Could returning expats, of which both Australia and NZ have legions of, deciding the freedom that NZ and Australia will have in “covid world’ make up for a lot of the immigration loss ?

  35. Look, I don’t want this to be all about me, but after the vet had left I decided to go down to the shopping centre to buy painkillers, chocolate and whiskey.

    Couldn’t believe it that when I arrived, Scott was in full presser mood, and when I got back in, he was still at it, all the way home until I turned off the engine.

    He just loves the sound of his own voice and being the star of the show. And says nothing worth a dime.

  36. meher baba @ #2435 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 2:32 pm

    c@tmomma: “I’m listening to a McKell Institute speech by Clare O’Neil MP. Boy is she top drawer.”

    This has been my view for a long time. So why isn’t she in the Shadow Cabinet ahead of several hacks and time-servers?

    And why isn’t Ed Husic even in the Shadow Ministry?

    You may not have noticed but Clare O’Neil is the Shadow Minister for the Future of Work and is creating a lot of value for Labor as a result. She will advance quickly, and is.

  37. meher baba says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:32 pm

    And why isn’t Ed Husic even in the Shadow Ministry?

    Factions and sexism.

  38. “C@tmommasays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:39 pm

    Don’t forget the arm of the industry that wants to make coin out of digging up Rare Earths and supplying them to the new tech industries.”

    Indeed. Pretty much everyone in the MC apart from the fossil fuel companies wishes the MC would STFU.

  39. lizzie @ #2444 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 2:41 pm

    Look, I don’t want this to be all about me, but after the vet had left I decided to go down to the shopping centre to buy painkillers, chocolate and whiskey.

    Couldn’t believe it that when I arrived, Scott was in full presser mood, and when I got back in, he was still at it, all the way home until I turned off the engine.

    He just loves the sound of his own voice and being the star of the show. And says nothing worth a dime.

    I just hate the affectation in his voice since he has become PM, like he’s attempting to sound authoritative, complete with the little catch in his vocal delivery. He was a child actor, after all.

  40. Lars Von Trier
    says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:30 pm
    Please stand by everybody, Bob Sprocket is waiting for his scripts to be uploaded. He will be along shortly to provide instant what about relief for long suffering labor hacks.
    _______________________
    Unless he’s been picked up by ASIO.

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