Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires

A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research poll has still more results on coronavirus, together with some findings on climate change. On the former count, the poll found 63% rating a second wave of coronavirus as restrictions are eased as very likely or quite likely, with only 13% rating it very unlikely; more than 60% expected international travel restrictions to remain for between one and two years; 70% thought it would take between one and two years for employment to recover; 60% expected a prolonged impact on the housing market; more than 60% expected a vaccine would be developed “over the next few years”; and 58% that the population would build resistance through exposure over that time. Despite it all, 45% said they felt very or somewhat positive about the next 12 months compared with 33% for very or somewhat negative.

On climate change, 52% now think Australia is not doing enough, down eight on November, with 25% holding the contrary view, up three. Forty-two per cent said they were now more concerned about climate change than they were a year ago, with a further 46% saying they were no more or less concerned. Full results from the poll will be published later today. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires”

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  1. “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:42 pm
    Blobbit

    Got it. Labor cannot do anything because it’s in Opposition.
    Just let the LNP imply corruption.”

    I think you meant “South” there.

    No, the ALP can support things like ICAC in the parliament, and argue for them outside of parliament as well. They can point out corruption and run with it.

    But they can’t establish a ICAC unless the party that controls the HoR votes in favour of it.

  2. Bucephalus @ #2447 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 2:42 pm

    meher baba says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:32 pm

    And why isn’t Ed Husic even in the Shadow Ministry?

    Factions and sexism.

    He’s freelancing very well and only stood aside from the Shadow Ministry to allow Labor’s Affirmative Action rules to apply to the Shadow Ministry. I know it’s a concept that’s alien to the Liberal Party. 🙂

  3. lizzie

    …. I decided to go down to the shopping centre to buy painkillers, chocolate and whiskey

    On the bright side you had the absolutely perfect shopping list for handling the sight of Scotty in full hallelujah FIGJAM mode

  4. Blobbit

    You as a pro Labor person can argue that Labor will fix pork barreling by having probity and ethics count. This is why Labor will introduce a Federal ICAC and other mechanisms to make honesty and transparency a hallmark of Labor government.

    As Julia Gillard said. We will let the sunshine in.

  5. Bucephalus

    You’re sweet to care. Simon was more worried about missing his lunch than the vet’s visit. He had 12 pretty good years until the last few months. I’m just being a sook.

  6. c@tmomma: “You may not have noticed but Clare O’Neil is the Shadow Minister for the Future of Work and is creating a lot of value for Labor as a result. She will advance quickly, and is.”

    Yes, she’s in the shadow outer ministry. Whoopie doo.

    Meanwhile, Joel Fitzgibbon, Don Farrell, Michelle Rowland, Madeleine King and Brendon O’Connor – to name but a few – are in shadow cabinet.

    (I guess one would have to say that at least Fitzgibbon is making an impact: although it’s one that I think the party would be better off without.)

  7. On Shark One.

    Kerry Glover
    @TheRealKerryG
    ·
    4m
    Sorry, wut? Was the $250m just the fit-out, not the purchase of the craft too? Geez. The arts *boost* is looking stingier by the minute.

  8. Are the ungrateful Anglophone kiddies whinging again?

    Some Boomer global accomplishments:

    1. Global life expectancy is higher now than it was in any single country before the Boomers got on the case. Not only are people living much, much longer, they are much healthier while they are alive..

    2. Boomers have lifted global literacy levels from 42% in 1960 to 86% in 2015.

    3. In 1950, 1 in 3 people went hungry. Now chronic hunger impacts 1 in 8. Those naughty Boomers and their GMOs!

    4. Global literacy has gone from 42% to 86%. Yep. The Boomers doubled global literacy levels.

    The Boomers achieved this while the global population jumped by many billions.

    I can understand why some self-centred anglophone kiddies are bitterly miffed that kids in third world countries actually did much, much better out of the Boomers than did the Boomers’ own Anglophone kids. But, really!

  9. Blobbit @ #2423 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 2:30 pm

    “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:22 pm
    Blobbit

    You don’t get to whinge about pork barreling and then claim yes Labor should do it too.”

    Er, I didn’t actually say that. What I said was that that is what the left is up against. You can’t actually pork barrel from opposition, at best you can promise it. It was an illustration of the lack of morality on the governments part.

    In case I need to say it, I don’t think the ALP should go into the next election promising to pork barrel electorates.

    ‘I don’t think the ALP should…’

    Toot toot!!

  10. lizzie says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:47 pm

    You’re not being a sook and I believe I have some dust in my eyes. Dog B getting extra lap time today.

  11. south @ #2426 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 2:34 pm

    So when I say that Albo isn’t up for fight iIget shouted down around here but…. there’s a deafening silence from the ALP on this one, Albo is entitled to a briefing from the head of ASIO on important matters (it’s in act). Having an ALP members officer raided probably warrants it.
    He should come out swinging! He should be talking about Gladys Lui and co. If this ALP member is guilty of something then so be it. But they are leaving themselves open to constant image problems with this shit.

    But past actions being a good indication of future actions i think Albo will go to the weekend and stay quiet.

    Every time the ALP speaks, it should start with “This corrupt government”
    It’s not liable if you call the government corrupt. And when the ask for specifics you just list off dodgy decisions.

    You have to want to win in order to win. I don’t think Albo wants it.

    ‘You have to want to win in order to win. I don’t think Albo wants it.’

    Pure and simple.

  12. boerwar says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:52 pm

    Don’t mention the astonishing fall in global poverty and rise in global incomes all while the population has exploded due to improved health and life expectancy.

  13. haha!
    Albanese does not want to win!
    The Greens have spent 30 years perfecting their ‘will-to-lose’.
    They are on 10.5%
    What might puzzle the disinterested observer is why the Greens spend 90% of their time either bashing Labor or advising Labor about how to win.
    They spend the other 10% of the time gutting each other.
    Irony-free zone = the Greens ten per centers.

  14. lizzie: “You’re sweet to care. Simon was more worried about missing his lunch than the vet’s visit. He had 12 pretty good years until the last few months. I’m just being a sook.”

    Kind thoughts your way. The death of a beloved pet is always a difficult thing to deal with: sooking is 150 per cent allowed.

    I always like to think that any deceased animal I have known is now in some afterlife world with my late father, who was the kindest person around animals I have ever known.

    So I believe your gorgeous dog is enjoying his lunch right now with someone who you know would care about him.

  15. laughtong

    Unfortunately the decision about Simon is bringing back memories of the last conversation I had with the Palliative Care doctors about Ken. I believe this is quite common, when one death revives memories of others.

  16. “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 2:47 pm
    Blobbit

    You as a pro Labor person can argue that Labor will fix pork barreling by having probity and ethics count. This is why Labor will introduce a Federal ICAC and other mechanisms to make honesty and transparency a hallmark of Labor government.

    As Julia Gillard said. We will let the sunshine in.”

    Sure, but’s that’s all pretty irrelevant on a blog where we’re discussing how the left can win the next election.

    Whatabout (there you go Nath) is the ALP is irremediable. Many here seem to thing it is. What then? How does the left win the next election?

  17. Lizzie

    You are not being a sook……
    Nothing that can be said right now can help ease the sorrow.

    Family members whose dogs have long gone, still cry when remembering them.
    Dogs will do that to you.

    Having said that, as I mentioned a few weeks back, my OH extended family by marriage are going through a living nightmare after the fires that ripped through their country retreat.
    I cant even bring myself to think about it.

  18. “guytaursays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 3:15 pm
    Blobbit

    The left wins by being the left. Not pretending it’s the right.
    Politics 101 as the Americans say.”

    Ever thought about running for parliment? You answer questions like a politician.

    So, the ALP is incapable of being left wing. We all seem pretty agreed on that, for the sake of argument. How then does the left win the next election?

  19. In this modern world, apparently these are the must-have items for survival! Oh, plus toilet paper.

    In Victorian stores, and NSW stores along the southern border, there are two packs per customer limits on the following:

    Hand sanitiser
    Flour
    Eggs
    Sugar
    Mince
    UHT milk
    Rice
    Pasta

  20. @RonniSalt
    · 46m
    Anybody recall Renee Viellaris? Formerly of the right-wing Murdoch Sky News & Courier Mail?

    Renee was Peter Dutton’s & the Liberal party’s go-to journalist for tea & sympathy.

    She’s now Director of Comms for the AFP

    And the media were all there *before* today’s AFP raid.

  21. I didn’t realise how bad this was.

    @IrritatedAuntie

    Insiders had 600,000 viewers in 2019 and a top 10 rated show.

    Since David Speers took over, its fallen to 328,000. Almost 1/2 the viewers in 6 months.

    If anyone should be sacked, its David Speers, not Emma Alberici.

  22. “KEY CHANGES UNDER PHASE FOUR IN WA:

    * Gathering limits only determined by WA’s 2sqm rule

    * Removal of seated service requirements at food outlets and licensed premises

    * No requirement to maintain a patron register

    * Alcohol can be served to unseated patrons

    * Events permitted except large-scale music festivals

    * Unseated performances allowed at concert halls, live music venues, bars, pubs and nightclubs

    * Gyms can be unstaffed but require regular cleaning

    * Casino gaming floor to reopen under temporary restrictions

    * A 50 per cent capacity at major sport and entertainment venues.”

    Well, about as open as we’re going to get for awhile I think. Must be about time for the Libs and the CCI to start whinging again. They’ve oddly gone very quiet about opening the borders.

  23. guytaur says:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 1:38 pm
    A common question on twitter.

    Is the raid on Glady’s Lieu happening before or after the by election.

    Sinophobia lives on Twitter. No surprise.

  24. meher baba @ #2458 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 2:50 pm

    c@tmomma: “You may not have noticed but Clare O’Neil is the Shadow Minister for the Future of Work and is creating a lot of value for Labor as a result. She will advance quickly, and is.”

    Yes, she’s in the shadow outer ministry. Whoopie doo.

    Meanwhile, Joel Fitzgibbon, Don Farrell, Michelle Rowland, Madeleine King and Brendon O’Connor – to name but a few – are in shadow cabinet.

    (I guess one would have to say that at least Fitzgibbon is making an impact: although it’s one that I think the party would be better off without.)

    Look, I know you’re trying to sound passive aggressive and all in support of Clare(or is it that you are looking for any port in a storm to diss Laber? Whastever), but she only came into parliament in 2013 and is already in the Outer (as you so dismissively define it) Shadow Ministry and will, without a shadow of a doubt be a Minister one day. FYI, Clare is quite happy to be earning her spurs atm. Numerous people have asked her and that is the reply she has given.

  25. lizzie: “@IrritatedAuntie
    Insiders had 600,000 viewers in 2019 and a top 10 rated show.
    Since David Speers took over, its fallen to 328,000. Almost 1/2 the viewers in 6 months.
    If anyone should be sacked, its David Speers, not Emma Alberici.”

    I think Insiders was running out of steam towards the end of Barrie’s time there. And, to a considerable extent, it was always something of a vehicle for Barrie.

    Speers has done some terrific interviews this year IMO (I don’t expect everyone to agree with me).

    But the panel discussions have been as boring as bats__t. While one tired of Barrie’s usual line up of his besties from the Press Gallery, this year’s panels seem to be dominated by the second string of News Limited journos and radio chat show hosts from across the ABC network and some commercial stations.

    Many of these journos aren’t even based in Canberra, so just how they could be considered to be political “insiders” is not clear.

    I reckon the ABC should scrap Barrie’s old format entirely and come up with something quite different.

  26. Lizzie,
    is it bad that insiders viewership is sliding. It;s just an echo chamber and that was happening with FK and BC before Speers.
    I mean the people who are on insiders are just that insiders, but it’s more of a snouts in the trough insiders. They don’t challenge or examine the status quo there. And headlines don’t get made there anymore.
    It’s a bit of a looser of a show really.

  27. The left win by being left.

    “Kevin Rudd’s political cowardice
    Scott Stephens 17 October 2007

    On Sunday afternoon, Kevin Rudd confirmed that his official election campaign will be the vanity exercise, the gutless appeal to a shallow and disaffected electorate, that most of us suspected it would be.

    Instead, the launch was everything we’ve come to associate with the ‘Kevin Rudd Show’ to date. He presented as relaxed, vaguely affable, and completely sterile. The actual content of his speech was inconsequential, because its overall intention was to give the public nothing to object to, and John Howard no ammunition to fire back at him.’

    What was that about him winning by being “strong”?

    Ref here: https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/kevin-rudd-s-political-cowardice

  28. There is some whataboutism in raising Liu now.
    But it is hard to rate that as Sinophobic, IMO.

    But there was some serial smoke in the Liu hearth.

    And there is definitely two standards which the most corrupt government since Federation applies to links with China.
    Robb stitched up the trade deal and waltzes into three quarters of a million a year+.
    Corrupt.
    The Corrupt government’s bastardization of the role of the AFP by having the media there for Labor raids while the AFP runs dead on Coalition issues (was there even a raid for Taylor?) is corrupt.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gladys-liu-s-beijing-confession-deepens-dispute-over-loyalty-20190911-p52qec.html

  29. In a recent study of the effectiveness of RT-PCR tests, the most common coronavirus test worldwide, Johns Hopkins researchers found testing wasn’t a foolproof way to rule out if someone was sick.

    They found in the first few days before symptoms typically show, the chance of getting a false negative result ranged from 100 per cent on day one to 67 per cent on day four.

    After symptoms began to show, false negative results fell to 38 per cent on day five and to 20 per cent on day eight – but rose again after that.

    Even when the test is at its most accurate, on day eight, there were one in five people who had the virus but returned a negative test result.

    “A negative test, whether or not a person has symptoms, doesn’t guarantee that they aren’t infected by the virus,” said Dr Lauren Kucirka, a resident physician at Johns Hopkins University and a lead author of the study.

    “How we respond to, and interpret, a negative test is very important because we place others at risk when we assume the test is perfect.”

    The take-home message?

    If you initially return a negative swab test, it doesn’t mean you’re in the clear. You might start to suffer flu-like symptoms a few days later.

    If that happens, get tested again.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/06/26/false-negatives-coronavirus/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=COVID-19%20-%2020200626

  30. Blobbit @ #2492 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 3:55 pm

    The left win by being left.

    “Kevin Rudd’s political cowardice
    Scott Stephens 17 October 2007

    On Sunday afternoon, Kevin Rudd confirmed that his official election campaign will be the vanity exercise, the gutless appeal to a shallow and disaffected electorate, that most of us suspected it would be.

    Instead, the launch was everything we’ve come to associate with the ‘Kevin Rudd Show’ to date. He presented as relaxed, vaguely affable, and completely sterile. The actual content of his speech was inconsequential, because its overall intention was to give the public nothing to object to, and John Howard no ammunition to fire back at him.’

    What was that about him winning by being “strong”?

    Ref here: https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/kevin-rudd-s-political-cowardice

    I bet that guy is still criticising Labor for not being bolshie enough, after all these years. 😐

  31. lizzie @ #2482 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 1:46 pm

    I didn’t realise how bad this was.

    @IrritatedAuntie

    Insiders had 600,000 viewers in 2019 and a top 10 rated show.

    Since David Speers took over, its fallen to 328,000. Almost 1/2 the viewers in 6 months.

    If anyone should be sacked, its David Speers, not Emma Alberici.

    I’d be interested to see the numbers between Cassidy finishing and Speers taking over.

    That would give a better idea of how the show is tracking.

  32. “C@tmommasays:
    Friday, June 26, 2020 at 4:04 pm
    Blobbit @ #2492 Friday, June 26th, 2020 – 3:55 pm

    I bet that guy is still criticising Labor for not being bolshie enough, after all these years. ”

    “Scott Stephens is Editor of the ABC’s Religion and Ethics website, and specialist commentator on religion and ethics for ABC radio and television”

    I’m guessing it’s the same person. Having listened to him a few times on RN, the only people he doesn’t like are atheists. Pretty much if he doesn’t like someone, or if they do something bad, then they’re an atheist.

    I’m guessing Rudd wasn’t Christian enough.

  33. http://about.abc.net.au/statements/what-would-australia-look-like-without-the-abc/

    The ABC has not only helped shape Australia, we are the national voice that unites us.

    It’s about democracy. Without the ABC we would have a balkanised and parochial bunch of broadcasters that are in danger of being compromised by profit and more intent on dividing than unifying.

    Imagine what it would be like during the bushfire season if we had to rely only on state-based or even regionally based media outlets. When we are in the middle of bushfires, don’t we want to know that they are being covered by a knowledgeable and experienced network of journalists with all the supporting infrastructure of a large national network?

    The ABC, funded by all of us, regardless of our creed – race, age, political beliefs – is us. It’s the way we build cross-cultural understanding, the way we help each other in times of need. It’s who we are collectively. Why would anyone want to diminish that and make us less than who we are?

    Statement by Ita Buttrose.

  34. Here’s how not to win from opposition

    “WA government face hurdle to pass legislation to stop puppy farming

    “The Liberal opposition are currently not supporting the Dog Amendment (Stop Puppy Farming), despite what the state government has described as “overwhelming support” from the community.”

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