Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

Comments Page 37 of 41
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  1. Cud Chewer

    Re earlier post re Canberra-Wellington flights. Air NZ not touching it with a barge pole. Seems it is coming from Canberra Airport management. As for elimination benefits.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    “HEALTHCAREJUNE 4, 2020 / 10:23 AM / UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO

    Air New Zealand set to boost domestic capacity to 55% of normal levels”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-air-new-zealand/air-new-zealand-set-to-boost-domestic-capacity-to-55-of-normal-levels-idUSL4N2DH0O0

  2. poroti

    I see Gladys is now talking about dropping their guard on public transport.
    Its a little too early to set up expectations I think.

  3. mundo says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 4:57 pm
    BK @ #1762 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 4:41 pm

    HomeBuilder is 80% politics, 20% economics.
    _____
    Supported by 100% marketing.
    Which is why they’ll get away with it.
    ………………………………………………

    Don’t agree with you M.
    The last thing voters like is missing out. FOMO is an important factor when it comes to a scheme like this. Many people too poor will miss out. Enough rich people will miss out. Plenty in-between will miss out for one reason or another.

    That’s a lot of resentment that advertising will just keep people reminded that they missed out whilst their next door neighbour scooped it up.

  5. In a small sample of my peers today, we all came to the conclusion that the Homebuilder handout will only be claimed by people that were going to renovate/build anyway.

  6. Re earlier post re Canberra-Wellington flights. Air NZ not touching it with a barge pole. Seems it is coming from Canberra Airport management.

    Like the early border relaxations for Canberra flights, it’s a literal Snow job.
    (Won’t happen without ACT border restrictions to keep non-residents out.)

  7. The scheme is flawed. It would make better sense to implement a 15% subsidy for all projects over $10,000 up to a maximum subsidy of $150,000.

  8. What a spectacle it is to see a neocon IR minister, Christian Porter, now desperate as a teenager before a dance to claim an iron socialist like the ACTU’s Sally McManus is his “new BFF”, despite her conspicuous refusal to do the same. The Liberal leadership have realised that only the application of Depression-ending Keynesian economic strategies can ameliorate their vulnerable political situation. They’re trying to glean economic concepts and grab some policy ideas from McManus and the unions because they cannot risk elevating and vindicating parliamentary Labor’s own Keynesians in the public policy conversation. Nor can the Liberals do nothing – they’d just cede an economic leadership platform to Labor’s Anthony Albanese.

    This was the framework that informed the creation of jobkeeper – the income subsidy that originated from explicit union demands. Yet despite the government’s rush to consult McManus, like any inauthentic contribution to a project, the Liberals’ fundamental disbelief in the politics of a subsidy have warped its design. Jobkeeper has been slow to start, cumbersome to access, has not helped all those who needed help and is contributing to unemployment as opportunistic businesses exploit staff on the subsidy rather than create new jobs to meet demands.
    …
    So too have Union demands for local procurement and investment in paid local jobs been contorted into the government’s unhinged “home improvement” stimulus scheme. A real “tradie-led” economic recovery would entail restarting government departments of public works and committing to the great projects of infrastructure-building with which the Curtin-Chifley Labor governments of the 1940s rebuilt Australia in the wake of the Depression and the second world war. This country is crying out for public housing, among many other things – but state enterprise and public services are anathema to the neoliberal DNA. Instead, Scott Morrison’s bizarre cash grants for home improvements have the conditions and restrictions of a wine club discount voucher where you have to buy more of what you don’t want at a price you can’t afford before the savings kick in at all.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/04/scott-morrisons-call-for-australia-to-renovate-wont-rebuild-a-broken-economy

  9. There is one issue with RenoRorts that has not been canvassed.
    This is supposed to be a stimulus.
    But the amount of time it takes to get to reno approval stage can be quite lengthy.
    In other words, the shovel ready stuff that people were working on will go ahead.
    RenoRorts may fill the pipeline a bit.

  10. Pegasus @ #1454 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 6:16 pm

    The G

    Staying with the protests, Labor MP Peter Khalil says on the ABC he is hoping to go to the Black Lives Matter protest in Melbourne on Saturday.

    Liberal Katie Allen says she won’t be, but that’s because of Covid-19 restrictions are in place.

    Khalil gets a question about the fact the premier is saying people should not attend, which he sidesteps.

    Khalil is another dud talking head who is completely uninteresting and no hope of cutting through.

  11. Whoops. Misread that one, at first

    Very droll, BW.

    I chose the hashtag used by Cornell Uni., but there are others e.g.:
    #blackbirder, #BlackAFinSTEM (Black AF in STEM), #BlackInNature

    White bird(watch)ers have been assaulted in Australia, too.

  13. doyley:

    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    Bandt’s a quintessential political opportunist; which I guess is fair enough(?). I mean, the political-class is tarred by the same brush.

  15. J
    It literally caught me right off guard – the choice of emphasis on either the first or second words tells you what people are talking about.

  16. I see Gladys is now talking about dropping their guard on public transport.

    Never been gladdier to be a Regional as I am now.

  19. Simply talking to a friend of mine this afternoon who actually has a house that needs renovation works, he said that, for $25000 after you put in your own $150000, it won’t be worth the trouble to try and get your job through Council in time to get access to the money. If you do. Then, getting access to a tradie to do it will just make matters worse. If you can get one.

  20. So, the Rugby League, who started before AFL, have had their first player wake up with an elevated temperature since the season re-started.

  21. In the ‘good old days’ when ‘yoof’ were misbehaving, or there was some ‘panic’ about society there were always LOLs as commentators or letters to the ed blamed, stopping corporal punishment in schools, single mothers, ‘modern music’ (esp. Metal) and of course the need for conscription. What has replaced those ?

  22. poroti says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 7:00 pm

    In the ‘good old days’ when ‘yoof’ were misbehaving, or there was some ‘panic’ about society there were always LOLs as commentators or letters to the ed blamed, stopping corporal punishment in schools, single mothers, ‘modern music’ (esp. Metal) and of course the need for conscription. What has replaced those ?
    _____
    Anti Greens posts?

  23. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    So, the Rugby League, who started before AFL, have had their first player wake up with an elevated temperature since the season re-started.’

    If he tests positive, I wonder what the Plan is. They must have one.

  24. Although Labor’s been critical of it…..says the ABC news.
    Labor and just about every other commentator out there.

    But!
    All those happy punters out there the ABC found who are ‘stoked’!!!!

  25. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 7:00 pm

    In the ‘good old days’ when ‘yoof’ were misbehaving, or there was some ‘panic’ about society there were always LOLs as commentators or letters to the ed blamed, stopping corporal punishment in schools, single mothers, ‘modern music’ (esp. Metal) and of course the need for conscription. What has replaced those ?’

    A Great Silent Embarrassment about the Ice Sourge.

  26. Windhover @ #1800 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 6:27 pm

    mundo says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 4:57 pm
    BK @ #1762 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 4:41 pm

    HomeBuilder is 80% politics, 20% economics.
    _____
    Supported by 100% marketing.
    Which is why they’ll get away with it.
    ………………………………………………

    Don’t agree with you M.
    The last thing voters like is missing out. FOMO is an important factor when it comes to a scheme like this. Many people too poor will miss out. Enough rich people will miss out. Plenty in-between will miss out for one reason or another.

    That’s a lot of resentment that advertising will just keep people reminded that they missed out whilst their next door neighbour scooped it up.

    Did you see the ABC news?

  27. The Australian Tax Office has launched fresh legal action against accounting giant PWC and meat processing firm JBS in an escalation of its ongoing conflict with the ‘big four’ firm over tax avoidance.

    The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age can reveal the tax office filed paperwork in the federal court on Tuesday afternoon for a lawsuit against PWC and three other respondents – Brazilian meat processing company JBS Australia and subsidiaries JBS Holdco and Flora Green.

    The legal action comes after ATO failed to prosecute PWC last year for its alleged role in assisting Swiss mining group Glencore in moving $30 billion of international shares into offshore tax structures.

    ATO second commissioner Jeremy Hirschhorn would not comment on any specific case but said certain groups in Australia were using legal professional privilege for the wrong reasons.

    “The ATO is concerned that some advisors and taxpayers are making reckless or baseless LPP claims in an attempt to withhold facts and evidence from the Commissioner,” Mr Hirschhorn said.
    “We are currently disputing LPP claims in a number of our cases in the large market sector. These cases are progressed in various ways and may involve independent review of claims, declaratory proceedings and penalties for false and misleading statements.”

    ASIC documents show Flora Green is a subsidiary of JBS Australia registered as a foreign company with a company address in Wacol, Queensland.

    Mr Hirschhorn said in a speech last year the big four accounting firms had systemic impacts on capital markets and therefore the ATO would respond more forcefully to creative tax advice in the sector.

    He said surveys by the ATO had found only 40 per cent of big businesses were believed to be paying the correct amount of tax, compared to 90 per cent of individuals.

    “I have seen some advisers who seem to operate almost on the basis that tax is discretionary or for people who are not as clever as them or their clients,” Mr Hirschhorn said.

    The ATO said in a separate research note it was investigating accounting firms excessively using LPP to withhold facts or evidence or to make false and misleading statements that could conceal fraud or lead to tax evasion.

  28. Asper, Secretary of Defence, has gone public with concerns about the military presence on US streets.
    Hello?
    He should resign in protest.

  29. Chairman JCS has sent a memo to the soldiers reminding them of their oath to uphold the Constitution, including the right to free speech and the right to protest.

    In the circumstance, a de facto near mutiny by the military.

  35. While I approve the actions of various military leaders in relation to Trump, the long term concern is that the military reluctance to become involved in domestic policy is being eroded.

  36. boerwar @ #1821 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 7:03 pm

    ‘C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    So, the Rugby League, who started before AFL, have had their first player wake up with an elevated temperature since the season re-started.’

    If he tests positive, I wonder what the Plan is. They must have one.

    I believe all members of his team and the team he played against last week will be tested, if he tests positive to COVID-19. There was mention that the season may have to be called off again. However, I would imagine that would only be the case if he is positive to COVID-19 and there turns out to be more than one positive case.

    Also, another team was found to have broken their protective bubble today (players and designated employees only included) after having been seen to be shaking hands with a former club legend who came to watch them train.

    Old habits die hard. Glorifying club legends and shaking their hand. 🙂

  38. Dan Andrews has to be held to account on what he will do about ALP Politicians and Union Leaders who ignore the social distancing and numbers restrictions at the protests.

  39. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 7:18 pm

    Kayleigh McEnany today described Trump’s trot over to the church as Churchillian.’

    Hardly fair to Trump, IMO.

  40. Buce

    I see you are in full authoritarian mode. Stop those peaceful protestors.
    Cannot have racism called out in Australia.

  41. Davidwh @ #1807 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 6:41 pm

    The scheme is flawed. It would make better sense to implement a 15% subsidy for all projects over $10,000 up to a maximum subsidy of $150,000.

    Nah. What’s with this 15% crap? 15% isn’t worth the overhead of planning/coordinating a renovation (unless you were already doing one anyways).

    How about every household gets access to $25,000 to put towards renovations/upgrades; they either undertake a project to that value or higher in the next 6 months, or they can’t claim the $25k? Covers 100% of the cost of all projects up to $25k, or 15% of the cost of a ~$167k project, and everything in between (and beyond).

  42. Can we please shut the fuck up about America and concentrate on the clusterfuck unfolding on our own doorstep.
    William, why don’t you start a thread for all those who’ve given up on Australia because Scrooter is unassailable so the rest of us can wallow in homegrown misery.

  43. Adam Bandt and the Victorian Greens have been campaigning on social/public/emergency housing for many years.

    Public Housing in Crisis: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/melbourne/pages/6872/attachments/original/1450089408/Public_Housing_in_Crisis.pdf?1450089408
    —————————-

    January 2019 – Public Housing Wait List Is 82,500 And Growing By 500 Each Month:
    https://10daily.com.au/news/australia/a190128gqk/public-housing-wait-list-is-82500-and-growing-by-500-each-month-20190130

    Federal Greens MP Adam Bandt was one of those who stepped in on Shane’s behalf.

    The federal Member for Melbourne wants Victoria’s state Labor government to urgently commit to constructing new public housing stock, to cut down the waiting list for those desperate to get a home.

    “When the amount of people who need public housing is surging, doing nothing will strand thousands of vulnerable Victorians who want nothing more than a safe place to live,” Bandt told 10 daily.

    The MP said his office had been collating housing complaints from Melbourne residents for three years. Of the 260 complaints received, the average time spent on a public housing wait list was 718 days from the time they approached Bandt’s office.

    Around 40 percent of people who approached Bandt’s office had children under five years of age, and 17 percent became homeless as a result of family violence.
    :::
    The June parliamentary report noted more than 60 percent of Victoria’s public housing was more than 30 years old, with around 20 percent of stock more than 50 years old.

    Rather than just upgrading current housing, Bandt called on the state government to spend some of its recent budget surplus — $1.4 billion, as announced at the April 2018 state budget — by committing to a “large-scale build” of new housing.

    Nothing opportunistic about Bandt and the Greens’ criticisms re Morrison’s home renovation scheme.

  44. I am quite happy to get $25,000 of my taxes back so that I can pretend to do a reno that I don’t need and that will boost our CO2 emissions.

    You know it makes sense.

  45. As soon as I saw Trump put on that pouty face while holding the Bible I was convinced it was a fake effort.

    Someone once – a long time ago, for sure – told him he looked handsome with that straight-lipped pout. And he’s never forgotten it.

  46. Bandt should explain how he is going to get rid of the 16 million tonnes of CO2 his crazed construction scheme will generate.
    He should do this while announcing the start of the Greens’ community debate on population and migration.

  48. Bucephalus @ #1836 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 7:23 pm

    Dan Andrews has to be held to account on what he will do about ALP Politicians and Union Leaders who ignore the social distancing and numbers restrictions at the protests.

    Buce, the NSW State Coalition Premier has given permission for a protest march here on Saturday too.

  49. Since Black Lives Do Matter very much, lets hope that the organizers and participants don’t give each other Covid.

  50. Kayleigh McEnany today described Trump’s trot over to the church as Churchillian.’
    ______
    Just like Vince McMahon more likely!

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