Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

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  2. • The poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt.

    The final option here seems very poorly worded and doesn’t make sense.

    How can not spending $60 B of stimulus “reduce the debt”?

    If they had spent it, the debt level would increase, but by not spending it, the debt level remains the same.

  4. Interesting that 43% of respondents thought that being 43% out in your budgeting was ok.

    n.b. 43% out – $60 B of $140 B.

  5. Barney

    How can not spending $60 B of stimulus “reduce the debt”?

    A prime example of how the media and the LNP lead voters by the nose. They don’t understand debt and budgets so think Morrison is doing a good thing by not spending all the pretend stimulus. No wonder he’s so popular, he is managing the economy so well.

  6. lizzie @ #5 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 4:26 am

    Barney

    How can not spending $60 B of stimulus “reduce the debt”?

    A prime example of how the media and the LNP lead voters by the nose. They don’t understand debt and budgets so think Morrison is doing a good thing by not spending all the pretend stimulus. No wonder he’s so popular, he is managing the economy so well.

    Yep, that seems to feed into my second comment.

    Spin, spin, spin.

    I’m surprised Essential have fallen for it!

  7. Homeowners will be offered grants of around $25,000 to build new homes under a new stimulus plan, but renovators will have to match the “free” cash by more than a dollar for dollar.

    Designed to protect tradies’ jobs in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic the final details of the scheme will be announced his week.

    But news.com.au has confirmed the requirement that renovators demonstrate substantial spending means smaller, DIY projects will be locked out of the Prime Minister’s renovations bonanza to ensure the money supports tradies’ jobs.

    Renovators will not just be required to match the cash grants but spend more, ensuring the projects are “substantial”.

    “We are more interested in the larger projects and new home builds and things like that,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison told 2GB on Monday morning.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/homebuyers-grant-how-much-money-you-will-get-from-new-scheme/news-story/a911b019f9c829fb59060b7e56fd1e2f

  8. I just has the most horrible thought. Scotty from Marketing is going to have Scotty from the Block as the face of his Tradies Bonanza. 😯

    Oh, and btw, the Tradies building houses and doing renovations never lost one day of work around here during the whole Coronavirus crisis. Every day, just before 7am, they would trundle by my house in their utes and trucks to begin work. So it’s an absolute confection that they are suffering so much they need their own stimulus package. The only thing that has affected them is that migrants are no longer being shovelled into the country. And that’s not going to last forever either. Scotty from marketing needs their economy and jobs boosting $$ to make himself look good.

  9. They’ve got to be fucking joking!!!!

    They’ve been shown to be cruel inhuman bastards and now they want to legalise their bastardy.

    The only way to make RoboDebt work is to significantly alter the algorithm, if that’s not possible then it is dead as a means of solely determining welfare over payment.

    Coalition won’t rule out passing new laws to reboot robodebt scheme

    Exclusive: using new legislation to legalise averaging of ATO data for debt recovery was explored in September

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/02/coalition-wont-rule-out-passing-new-laws-to-reboot-robodebt-scheme

  10. The figures for the “renovation” scheme suggest that it is yet another scheme that will benefit higher income earners. My mum wants to rebuild her kitchen, but it will be nothing like $25,000

  11. Houston Police Chief @ArtAcevedo: “Let me just say this to the President of the United States, on behalf of the police chiefs of this country: please, if you don’t have something constructive to say, keep your mouth shut.” pic.twitter.com/z5AJpOO0RO

  14. Cash grants for renovations would likely hit the economy quicker since they don’t necessarily require building approvals.

    But they bring their own problems.

    Grants will likely see in-demand tradies raise their prices, especially if the government is effectively paying for most of the work done.

    It will also be harder for officials administering the scheme to determine if the work has been done before paying out the money.

    Nor is it clear the renovation sector needs further stimulus: Reports suggest COVID-19 is driving a renovation boom across many parts of Australia.

    Research by credit bureau illion and economic consultancy AlphaBeta shows spending on home improvements is already 33 per cent higher than pre-COVID levels.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/06/01/home-buyer-grants-social-housing/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020200602

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    In this excellent essay Peter Hartcher says that the US is tearing itself apart because its political system has failed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-us-is-tearing-itself-apart-because-its-political-system-has-failed-20200531-p54y6a.html
    Paramedics are the first public sector workers to launch industrial action over the Berejiklian government’s wage freeze, refusing from Monday night to bill patients.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/billing-ban-from-paramedics-as-public-servants-fight-wage-freeze-20200601-p54ygm.html
    According to economist and former NSW Treasury official, Robert Carling, NSW’s public servant pay freeze is just the first shot in a long war.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/a-public-servant-pay-freeze-is-just-the-first-shot-in-a-long-war-20200531-p54y66.html
    Shane Wright reports that one of the nation’s most senior economists, Westpac’s Bill Evans, says the RBA should consider taking interest rates below zero to boost the economy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/go-below-zero-rba-urged-to-take-rates-negative-for-economic-boost-20200601-p54yda.html
    Phil Coorey says that the government is working on short, sharp rescue packages for the housing and arts sectors as it moves away from economy-wide assistance measures.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/short-sharp-rescue-for-housing-and-the-arts-20200601-p54y8i
    Money for social housing, not home-buyer grants, is the key to construction stimulus opines Brendan Coates.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/06/01/home-buyer-grants-social-housing/
    Max Kozlowski with all of Morrison’s deflections and blame attribution on the Robodebt disgrace.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/now-is-not-the-time-scott-morrison-blames-welfare-principle-also-followed-by-labor-for-robodebt-scandal-20200601-p54ye2.html
    The Morrison government is standing by its policy that allowed the early release of superannuation to more than 1.8 million people despite much of the cash being spent on gambling and alcohol, arguing people are exercising their free choice. Shane Wright explains how Labor is amping up on this.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/early-super-access-scheme-is-another-robo-debt-labor-says-20200601-p54ycw.html
    Sally Whyte explains the conditions applying to the Robodebt refunds and how they should not affect recipients’ ongoing Centrelink payments.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6776684/robodebt-refunds-wont-affect-current-centrelink-payments/?cs=14329
    Asher Wolf goes into detail to explain how Robodebt was an algorithmic weapon of calculated political cruelty. And it’s not over yet, he says.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6775350/robodebt-was-an-algorithmic-weapon-of-calculated-political-cruelty/?cs=14258
    Michael Pascoe explains that the Community Development Grants Scheme rorts were worse than he thought.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/06/01/community-development-grant-pascoe/
    The real-time suicide data promised by the Morrison government as part of its COVID-19 mental health response plan may not be available for two years says Dana McCauley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/real-time-suicide-data-years-away-as-doctors-warn-of-mental-health-spike-20200529-p54xnl.html
    Sha also reports that Australians with health insurance may wait months for procedures usually accessed within weeks in the private system after about 400,000 procedures were cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/through-the-roof-private-patients-face-longer-wait-times-for-elective-surgery-20200529-p54xpf.html
    Emma Koehn writes that the plasma collection sector is urging US donors to return to centres and is offering higher payment rates and free Uber rides to lure in recovered COVID-19 patients.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/csl-hunts-for-covid-19-plasma-as-biotechs-sweeten-pitch-to-donors-20200529-p54xl0.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz says that over the past week there’ve been some curious fluctuations in the value of China’s currency that could ramp up tensions with the US and trigger a new flashpoint in the trade war between the two nations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/china-s-currency-could-escalate-tensions-in-the-growing-cold-war-with-the-us-20200601-p54ybd.html
    The AFR reveals that the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority has issued a shortlist of eight firms for its court action on business interruption insurance – and QBE is in its sights.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/british-regulator-hauls-qbe-into-coronavirus-court-case-20200602-p54yj3
    Dominic Powell tells us about the buyer’s remorse over the purchase of David Jones.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/david-jones-a-very-poor-investment-says-south-african-shareholder-20200601-p54ya4.html
    In stark contrast to the last international financial crisis, Australia is now going into deep deficit and debt with very little to show for it writes Alan Austin.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/building-the-national-heritage-difference-between-labor-and-the-coalition,13950
    Elizabeth Knight explains how the NSW government cemented the near term financial fate of James Packer’s Crown casino at Sydney’s Barangaroo with the stroke of a pen on Friday when it inked a deal with rival The Star confirming its exclusive casino rights to operate poker machines for 21 years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/no-pokies-no-ho-and-no-chinese-vips-packer-s-barangaroo-challenge-20200601-p54yf6.html
    The AFR’s David Marin-Guzman writes that the decline of the enterprise bargaining system threatens to undermine workers’ wages unless it is fixed, with recent data showing employees on collective agreements have won pay rises 40 per cent higher than in the rest of the economy.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/wage-growth-at-risk-in-broken-bargaining-system-20200601-p54yaj
    According to Karen Maley Anna Bligh has skilfully rebuilt the tattered image of the country’s banks during the coronavirus pandemic by making them an integral part of the safety net.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/anna-bligh-s-big-moment-in-reshaping-banks-image-20200601-p54yca
    The world’s major food baskets will experience more extreme droughts than previously forecast as greenhouse gases rise, with southern Australia among the worst-hit, climate projections show.
    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-among-global-hot-spots-as-droughts-worsen-in-warming-world-20200601-p54ydh.html
    It’s simple: local communities want local news regardless of what greedy media oligarchs like Murdoch say, writes Dr Robin Tennant-Wood. She says regional media are ripe for independent revolution.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/regional-media-ripe-for-independent-revolution,13951
    Noel Towell reports that the Victorian Liberals are demanding an investigation into Labor cabinet minister Martin Foley, saying he failed to declare a link to controversial property developer John Woodman.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-says-cabinet-colleague-has-nothing-to-declare-as-libs-demand-probe-20200601-p54yg2.html
    Just as more powerful, wealthier countries were beginning to think seriously about this new coronavirus, Australia was way out in front, having already grown it writes Jill Margo.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/how-australia-grew-the-virus-and-shared-it-with-the-world-20200528-p54xhy
    Crime writer John Silvester gives us a taste of what the new Victorian police chief commissioner will be like. He speaks highly of him.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/patton-s-actions-on-the-shop-floor-show-the-kind-of-boss-he-ll-be-20200601-p54yfk.html
    Is Belgium the world’s deadliest COVID-19 country or just the most honest asks Bevan Shields.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/is-belgium-the-world-s-deadliest-covid-19-country-or-just-the-most-honest-20200522-p54voq.html
    Whoever invents a coronavirus vaccine will control the patent – and, importantly, who gets to use it warns law professor Natalie Stolanoff.
    https://theconversation.com/whoever-invents-a-coronavirus-vaccine-will-control-the-patent-and-importantly-who-gets-to-use-it-138121
    Matthew Knott describes how Americans see Trump lighting the match that set off the tinder box.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/george-floyd-protests-live-updates-us-unrest-ensues-as-black-lives-matter-demonstrators-continue-to-clash-with-police-20200601-p54yfz.html
    The fury in US cities is rooted in a long history of racist policing, violence and inequality writes Professor Clare Corbould.
    https://theconversation.com/the-fury-in-us-cities-is-rooted-in-a-long-history-of-racist-policing-violence-and-inequality-139752
    Associated Press tells us that American officials are seeking to determine whether extremist groups have infiltrated police brutality protests across the country and deliberately tipped largely peaceful demonstrations towards violence – and if foreign adversaries are behind a burgeoning disinformation campaign on social media.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/as-riots-spread-officials-fear-extremists-are-fanning-the-flames-20200601-p54y8n.html
    Senior Facebook employees have used Twitter over the weekend to express their dismay at Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg’s decision not to take action on incendiary comments posted to the social network by Donald Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/mark-is-wrong-facebook-workers-criticise-zuckerberg-s-inaction-over-trump-20200602-p54yjf.html
    This surgeon has earned nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/gynaecologist-used-scans-from-other-people-to-justify-pelvic-mesh-surgery-court-told-20200527-p54x3f.html

    Cartoon Corner

    One of Rowe’s best

    Alan Moir

    Cathy Wilcox


    John Shakespeare

    Matt Golding





    Andrew Dyson

    Peter Broelman


    Glen Le Lievre


    Sean Leahy

    John Spooner
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9eda38977720f9fa8b69ed9448157d8d?width=1024

    From the US












  16. Holdenhillbilly @ #11 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 5:01 am

    Houston Police Chief @ArtAcevedo: “Let me just say this to the President of the United States, on behalf of the police chiefs of this country: please, if you don’t have something constructive to say, keep your mouth shut.” pic.twitter.com/z5AJpOO0RO

    WOW!!!

    Yesterday we saw other Countries mocking Trump and now a senior public official is telling him to STFU.

  17. Peter Hartcher talks about inequality, broken health care etc, but doesn’t actually say “dangerously broken right wing ideology”..

  18. Q&A
    Zoe Whitton hit it out of the park, if we don’t get our shit together we will face carbon tariffs. Our future lies in creating low carbon products using our extensive renewable resources.

    Matt Canavan lives in the past. Giving the very reason why Victoria built coal fired stations 50 years ago. The reason is no more, renewable are cheaper. It is now the reason why we should be building out our renewable infrastructure.

    Joel Fitzgibbon adds nothing to the debate. Noting, there will be no new coal fired stations but offering no path forward. If you have nothing to add shut up and go away.

    It was unfair attacking Zali Steggall because she didn’t fall behind the chief scientist, Dr Alan Finkel; over his support for gas because he is an “expert”. The real experts in the field are found in AEMO.

    P1 and the coalition are on the same page: gas, gas, gas. We will hear; more frack frack frack from these people.

  20. Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer tells Trump that ‘viciously attacking governors’ isn’t helping

    Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer blasted President Donald Trump for his dressing down of U.S. governors, he called “weak,” for refusing to call in the National Guard to stop protesters.

    “I joined a call with my fellow governors and the current president that was deeply disturbing. Instead of offering support or leadership to bring down the temperature at protests, the president repeatedly and viciously attacked governors, who are doing everything they can to keep the peace while fighting a once-in-a-generation global pandemic,” said Whitmer.

    She then took to Twitter, sharing an essay by former President Barack Obama and calling for “empathy, humanity, and unity.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/michigans-gretchen-whitmer-tells-trump-that-viciously-attacking-governors-isnt-helping/

  21. Personally I struggle to explain why many Australians detest the Greens.

    They are spoilers. It is all they offer. You can only spoil so many things and people notice and get fed up with it.

  22. Dr. Fauci reveals he’s no longer meeting with Trump as COVID-19 task force withers away

    A STAT Q&A with Dr. Anthony Fauci revealed that the top infectious diseases expert in the country no longer has the meetings with President Donald Trump that he once did. Nor is the Coronavirus Task Force meeting as often as they once were.

    Dr. Fauci explained that he understands the desire for states and cities to reopen and for Americans to get back to work and some sense of normalization.

    “We used to have task force meetings every single day, including Saturday and Sunday, and about 75 percent of the time after the task force meeting, we’d meet with the president. So, I was meeting with him four times a week back, a month or so ago,” he said. “But as you probably noticed, that the task force meetings have not occurred as often lately. And certainly, my meetings with the president have been dramatically decreased.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/dr-fauci-reveals-hes-no-longer-meeting-with-trump-as-covid-19-task-force-withers-away/

  24. Governor J B Pritzker of Illinois in a recorded conversation with Donald Trump which has been leaked:

    What. A. Manchild.

  26. Overcast, raining and 8° in Sydney. The Sun rose and immediately disappeared behind the cloud deck. #WeatheronPB.

  27. Canavan’s appearance on QandA last night was awful. Imagine the reaction if Julia Gillard turned up looking as dishevelled.

  32. From the perspective of being safe and warm inside with the benefit air conditioning, it looks like a beautiful sunny day outside 🙂

  34. If I remember correctly the $60 billion is still floating around in a mythical “To be borrowed land. ” Ah, there it is –

    “”But what it means is Australians won’t have to borrow as much money. This is not money that is sitting in the bank somewhere, this $60 billion, that is all money that would have otherwise had to be borrowed.””

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-24/coronavirus-jobkeeper-wage-subsidy-josh-frydenberg-60-billion/12280716

    Just more bullshit from Scotty from Marketing and the Magic Wand Crony Co. Inc.

    Have a look at –

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/01/donald-trump-is-bravest-man-america/

  35. Morning all

    Much appreciation BK

    Meanwhile

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    2h
    Who knew?

    Oh. Wait. Everyone.
    Quote Tweet

    ABC News
    @ABC
    · 2h
    BREAKING: An independent autopsy ordered by George Floyd’s family finds he was killed by “homicide caused by asphyxia due to neck and back compression that led to a lack of blood flow to the brain,” according to early findings from the examination. https://abcn.ws/3dAVN0x
    Show this thread

  39. “Home renovation” can have a very broad definition. Oh dear, so much paperwork to check. Much simpler to give $20K or so to those who already have that much loose change. So that’s the way Scotty will go.

  40. poroti

    I’m a bit reluctant to jinx it by commenting but as of yesterday NSW had gone 6 days without a community transmission.

  46. @Firefox

    I don’t believe that the News Corporation media is wholly to blame as to why so many Aussies detest the Greens. Rather I argue it is due to the extent of anti-environmentalist, racist and homophobic views among Aussies.

    Seriously no other nation has so many people opposed to marriage equality. Because they fear the prospect of boys wearing female clothing. Not to mention the relevance of unashamedly casual racist views being expressed by many in both private and public life, especially among older people.

  47. Morning all and thanks BK for the roundup. Trump has fractured the USA. Mission accomplished for Putin?

    Frednk

    I agree with you comments on QandA last night. Neither Canavan nor Fitzgibbon added anything of value and both spoke in half truths. No Mr Canavan, coal is NOT a cheap energy source. No Mr Fitzgibbon, gas is NOT cleaner than coal and it is NOT a path towards meeting emissions targets. It is more on the same – a stalling tactic. And YES Joel, many studies have shown we can produce enough renewable power to run the economy. That is why the Coalition is intervening in the market – to stop renewables being built.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/02/qa-matt-canavan-grilled-on-climate-change-and-family-links-to-coal-industry

    Finally I agree Alan Finkel should not be quoted as an expert on climate science or energy policy. He has never published a peer reviewed paper in either. In fact our Chief Scientist is not a scientist. He is an electrical engineer with a background in neuroscience and making medical instruments. He was a political appointee, who is experienced in industry.

    I didn’t watch the show. It was designed to appeal to the uninformed, and they would have remained that way after viewing.

  49. Tristo @ #46 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 6:06 am

    @Firefox

    I don’t believe that the News Corporation media is wholly to blame as to why so many Aussies detest the Greens. Rather I argue it is due to the extent of anti-environmentalist, racist and homophobic views among Aussies.

    It’s more likely the fact the Greens do nothing constructive, they simply pull cheap stunts and whine from the sidelines.

  50. Socrates

    What do you think of the timetable changes to Sydney trains?
    4 extra services on T1 peak hour for example. Fiddling at the edges?

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