Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

Comments Page 2 of 41
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  2. Labor’s Bill Shorten says mutual obligations clearly do not apply to government ministers in the wake of the cruel Robodebt fiasco.

    Taxpayers will now have to cough up close to $1 billion as illegal debt notices are repaid with interest and likely compensation for harm done.

    Yet, not one minister has lost their job.
    …
    On Monday Mr Morrison was refusing to say sorry and claimed previous Labor and Liberal governments had used income averaging.

    Mr Shorten says under Labor it was only ever used as a “red flag,” all “automated interventions” were followed up by human beings in Centrelink.

    In 2016 when then Social Services Minister Christian Porter expanded the program, the number of notices leapt from 20,000 a year to 20,000 a week.

    The government then spent $63.5 million on private debt collectors to harass people whose “debts” it had literally only guessed at.

    Mr Porter on Sunday said the debts had now been reduced to zero but on Monday Mr Morrison said “it doesn’t mean those debts don’t exist. It just means that they cannot be raised solely, on the basis of using income averaging”.

    Mr Shorten suspects this is a sure sign the government will come again.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/06/02/paul-bongiorno-skewed-thinking-doesnt-stop-at-robodebt/

  4. “I agree with you comments on QandA last night. Neither Canavan nor Fitzgibbon added anything of value and both spoke in half truths.”

    What I find interesting here with my Engineering viewpoint is just how badly educated these people are about basic facts. It was also amusing seeing Joel call Matt a denier. Both of them need to be sat down in front of a blackboard and given a less in basic physics and Engineering.

  5. Also interesting is that the gas people haven’t cottoned on to the implications of the Hazer process. You can take methane and convert it to hydrogen and graphite. Graphite is a useful product and in any case is stable (so its easy to sequester).

  7. Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    24m
    All the protesters have to do to win is to observe the curfew and go home. The officer is under arrest. Trump is defeated and in hiding. The governors are appalled at him. But every day this goes on is a day that potentially breaks in Trump’s favor. /1

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    24m
    Trump is desperately hoping that the protests will get worse and that the situation will rise to meet the rhetoric he’s trying to apply to it. Every night that goes on that the protesters continue violence and looting works in his favor. /2

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    25m
    Provocateurs know this, too. They will continue to try to blend in with the legitimate protesters. I hope that the protesters listen to mayors like Mayor Bottoms of Atlanta. What happens next is in their control, not Trump’s. /3x

  8. Cud

    The extra services being added in Sydney to help train crowding meet social distancing rules are a good idea but insufficient. Covid 19 drops PT capacity to 20% to 30% of normal. Extra services to boost capacity will help, as will running a longer peak i.e. more shoulder peak services at same frequency as peak to encourage people to vary departure times. But I doubt any system in Australia has the driver or rolling stock capacity to add what is needed.

    Road capacity to CBDs is already full in every case (even Adelaide) so more cars is not a solution. We need a combination of some peak spreading, staggered start times (e.g. retail 10AM to 6PM), four day weeks and telecommuting. Protected bike lanes could also help because they have high capacity but require removal of on street parking on selected corridors. So political bravery is required. Lacking that, CBD activity levels will be restricted until social distancing is lifted.

  9. @brandongmz7
    ·
    1h
    Ive just learned the rubber bullets are not made of rubber at all, they have a thin covering of rubber but are essentialy cannonballs, Lets stop calling them, rubber bullets, they are cannon balls being shot at the heads and limbs and eyeballs of protestors

  10. One final thought on Trump. Putin must be delighted his investment has paid off beyond his wildest dreams. His cold war enemy is destroyed from within.

    Trump calling on governors to “dominate” protestors to restore order is the pathetic act of a weak, insecure leader. Strong leaders do not need to dominate others to force their obedience. They inspire others to follow their example and ideas. Weak leaders, unable to inspire support, must resort to fear. They can only be reelected when a democracy is no longer functional.

  12. The government simply did not understand the entertainment industry. It thought most would be sole traders, who are eligible for JobKeeper.

    The meeting ended in a stand-off, with no communique released at all. It is understood Marshall took up the case with Morrison at Friday’s national cabinet meeting and now, the PM says, plans are afoot.

    How broad remains to be seen.

    He said on Monday “we’ve been looking closely at the entertainment industry” and suggested that large productions, stage or screen, which ground to a sudden halt would receive capital injections to enable them to get going again.

    Labor’s Tony Burke, who has advocated for the sector from the get-go, is worried it may not be comprehensive enough.

    “Today there’s finally a glimmer of hope for these workers. Hopefully there’s meaningful support on the way. It would be a cruel hoax to raise expectations and then let people down.”

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/leaked-drafts-reveal-awkward-talks-to-save-the-arts-20200601-p54y8k

  13. Socrates
    The number of people working from home might mean the numbers coming in to the CBD are manageable. We’ll soon find out !

  15. “Lacking that, CBD activity levels will be restricted until social distancing is lifted.”

    This is exactly what I’ve been saying all along. The “new normal” that suppression advocates talk about means a permanently crippled CBD economy.

  16. Socrates @ #60 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 6:33 am

    One final thought on Trump. Putin must be delighted his investment has paid off beyond his wildest dreams. His cold war enemy is destroyed from within.

    Trump calling on governors to “dominate” protestors to restore order is the pathetic act of a weak, insecure leader. Strong leaders do not need to dominate others to force their obedience. They inspire others to follow their example and ideas. Weak leaders, unable to inspire support, must resort to fear. They can only be reelected when a democracy is no longer functional.

    Canada and the UK have vetoed Putin’s attendance to the G7, a sign of how weak American global leadership is right now.

  17. I’m assuming this came from the Turnbull autobiography.

    Scott Morrison wanted the Turnbull government to start anti Muslim rhetoric to divide the community for votes. Turnbull and Bishop declined. Shows what Morrison is prepared to do to win power.

  19. ***

    I think we need to be very careful not to make the same mistake as last time by underestimating Trump. Better to overestimate him and be damn sure he is gotten rid of than to just assume that he’s going to lose or has already lost simply because we can see how incompetent he is.

  20. Socratessays: Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 8:33 am

    One final thought on Trump. Putin must be delighted his investment has paid off beyond his wildest dreams. His cold war enemy is destroyed from within.

    *************************************************

  21. If people don’t want the economy opened up ahead of controlling the spread of infection, they aren’t going to risk their lives by going out anyway. It seems ridiculous to start returning to normal when there is such widespread transmission in the community, irrespective of whether people want to be able to visit restaurants etc or not.

    Nearly 6 in 10 Americans say the coronavirus outbreak has exacted a severe economic toll on their communities, but a majority of a divided country still says controlling the virus’s spread is more important than trying to restart the economy, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

    The nationwide survey finds that despite the shared disruption of their daily lives since stay-at-home orders began, partisans differ sharply on how the country should move forward.

    In the starkest split, 57 percent of Americans overall and 81 percent of Democrats say trying to control the spread of the coronavirus is most important right now, even if it hurts the economy. A far smaller 27 percent of Republicans agree, while 66 percent of them say restarting the economy is more important, even if it hurts efforts to control the virus. Nearly 6 in 10 independents say their priority is trying to control the virus’s spread.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/despite-widespread-economic-toll-most-americans-still-favor-controlling-outbreak-over-restarting-economy-post-abc-poll-finds/2020/06/01/3e052ec0-a27b-11ea-81bb-c2f70f01034b_story.html

  22. lizzie @ #67 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 8:39 am

    I’m assuming this came from the Turnbull autobiography.

    Scott Morrison wanted the Turnbull government to start anti Muslim rhetoric to divide the community for votes. Turnbull and Bishop declined. Shows what Morrison is prepared to do to win power.

    The New Zealand mosque murders may have put a stop to this evil plan. 😒

  23. lizzie

    No, that Scrott is that way inclined came out well before that.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………
    Morrison sees votes in anti-Muslim strategy
    By Lenore Taylor NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT
    February 17, 2011 — 3.00am

    THE opposition immigration spokesman, Scott Morrison, urged the shadow cabinet to capitalise on the electorate’s growing concerns about “Muslim immigration”, “Muslims in Australia” and the “inability” of Muslim migrants to integrate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-anti-muslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html

  27. No surprises for guessing who Trump was on the phone with before his bully boy remarks to America’s Governors?

    Yep. First word starts with ‘V’. Second word starts with ‘P’.

  31. poroti @ #72 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 8:46 am

    lizzie

    No, that Scrott is that way inclined came out well before that.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………
    Morrison sees votes in anti-Muslim strategy
    By Lenore Taylor NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT
    February 17, 2011 — 3.00am

    THE opposition immigration spokesman, Scott Morrison, urged the shadow cabinet to capitalise on the electorate’s growing concerns about “Muslim immigration”, “Muslims in Australia” and the “inability” of Muslim migrants to integrate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-anti-muslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html

    Nowadays he connives for their votes based upon their religious and social conservatism, just like him! He’s a sneaky weasel, is Scott.

  33. Andrew Weinstein
    @Weinsteinlaw

    The fact that Trump spoke with Zuckerberg on Friday and Putin today but still hasn’t addressed the American people tells you pretty much everything you need to know about him.

  34. With that Queensland man
    He initially tested positive. Then a second test was negative.
    Given that we are now discovering the limitations of the “gold standard” test, this still leaves the question hanging. Was the first test correct and…?

  36. Not forgetting how Scrott got the seat in the first place. Scrott was slaughtered in the first ballot losing to Towke . Scrott 8 Towke 82. But hey ho come on down the Rupert slime machine. After all..

    His victory meant that a Lebanese Australian would represent the Liberal Party in the seat where the Cronulla riot and revenge raids had taken place 18 months earlier, in December 2005.

    Sure it cost the Rupertarium $100,000 in damages but what an investment. They got Scrott right where they wanted him.
    https://www.theleader.com.au/story/3519390/nasty-saga-you-nearly-missed-towke-tells-his-story/

  37. The New Zealand mosque murders may have put a stop to this evil plan.

    If we recall, in the wake of the Medivac legislation, Scott Morrison went to Christmas Island early last year to bellow invitations to people-smugglers to restart the boats in time for the election.

  38. lizzie @ #74 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 8:46 am

    KayJay

    Good point. I wasn’t sure of the timing.
    And good morning. 🙂

    I’m not sure about timing either. The appalling anti muslim language seems to have been put away for now – please note the deafening silence regarding treatment of indigenous Australians.

    Yes indeed. Good morning 😍

    Newcastle 10℃ seems like 7℃
    Projected top temp 16℃

    and – thanks Victoria.

  39. Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    8m
    Trump just invoked the Second Amendment. As if that was part of this. Pretty much a signal for jumpy white people to walk around with guns.

    Sounds like things are getting worse! Just hope people don’t rise to Trump’s bait.

  40. If this works (see link below) it could be useful in reducing population impacts on wildlife. Assuming that the primary objective is to reduce the rate of the Anthropocene Extinction Event, the device might have some pluses and minuses. Some of these are counter intuitive.

    Let’s look at a potential wildlife minus first. Reducing Eastern Grey Kangaroo numbers is a plus. In the absence of predators they increase their numbers until they eat themselves out of house and home and reach population famine levels. During that process they constitute a threat to the continued survival of plant species. Uncontrolled Eastern Grey Kangaroos are a driver of the Anthropocene Extinction Event. But culling them with cars inflicts unnecessary pain and is economically inefficient.

    The pluses are that there are species that are under human population pressure that have substantial numbers of individuals killed by traffic. This can be big. Some species of birds have around a third of their individuals killed by cars in areas where territories abut road sides. There are mass kills of rare parrot species when grain is spilled on roadsides. There are mass kills of owls when mouse plagues abut roads. Raptores attracted to roadside kills are killed in turn. And so on and so forth. The national carnage is massive.

    So, one of the lag effects of the CURRENT human population is ongoing traffic attrition of wildlife. How significant this on a national basis has never been calculated. But, just to get a scale idea, Australia’s built environment includes around 830,000km of roads.*

    While doubling the population will not double Australia’s road kill, it will certainly be cumulative to a biodiversity sustainability issue that has not been resolved now.

    I urge all environmentalists in the Greens Party to contact Bandt and urge him to implement the Australian Greens policy on population and migration, namely, to start a community debate. Further, I urge those environmentalists to encourage Bandt to develop a related policy process that embeds sustainability in the process… not as an afterthought but as a core element from the beginning.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-02/wildlife-fence-trial-underway-in-queensland-and-phillip-island/12268110

    *BTW, road building and road maintenance (including upgrades, grading, drainage works and roadside vegetation maintenance) is a major unsustainable use of soil around the world.

  41. Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson

    Oh my ducking God this speech has everything from the Lil Fascist Handbook
    (COVID-19 Recovered) Straight Talker

    @SomeRandomGuy5

    “It’s important to keep reminding the populace that there are threats to their safety and way of life, and the dictator is the only one who can solve the problems he describes.”

    from “Tyrannical Minds: Psychological Profiling, Narcissism, and Dictatorship” by
    @Dean_A_Haycock

  42. Morning

    Trump is doing exactly what was feared. He is using protests as an excuse to establish martial law.

    Putin wil be smiling.

  43. Boerwar,
    I’m sorry, but today is not the day to give us a dissertation on threatened species. Today there is a guy in charge of what was once the Beacon of Democracy for the world declaring Martial Law in that country so that he might cling onto power!

  45. @KingJames tweets

    Media showing this???? I bet you they’re not. ‍♂️! You know why, cause this is unity, peaceful, beautiful and love! https://twitter.com/cotimesrecorder/status/1266815884737249280

    @COTimesRecorder

    Incredible scene at Colorado’s Capitol right now. Thousands of protesters are lying face down with their hands behind their backs chanting “I can’t breathe.” They’re doing this for 9 mins. #copolitics #denverprotest #GeorgeFloyd https://twitter.com/COTimesRecorder/status/1266815884737249280/video/1

  46. Robert Lee
    @downtownrob88

    Extraordinary: Guns and God from
    @realDonaldTrump
    . The battle lines are drawn.

    I see Stephen Miller’s fingerprints all over this.

  48. Brenden Dilley Is Just Waiting Until Trump ‘Gives Us the Green Light’ to Start Gunning Down Protesters

    MAGA “life coach” and proudly amoral right-wing broadcaster Brenden Dilley said during his livestream program today that he and millions of other gun-loving Americans are just waiting until President Donald Trump “gives us the green light” to take to the streets and start gunning down activists who have been protesting all over the country following the police killing of George Floyd.

    “Someone should politely explain to antifa [that] the most violent Americans, the most violent and willing Americans, haven’t even left the couch yet,” Dilley said. “The most violent and ready to go, the most tactically trained, haven’t even got off the couch yet. So you better pray to God, and I mean this literally—or whoever the fuck it is you pray to—that Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, and Attorney General Barr clean this up lawfully.”

    https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/brenden-dilley-is-just-waiting-until-trump-gives-us-the-green-light-to-start-gunning-down-protesters/

  49. Donald Trump just declared war on urban America. Especially ethnic minorities and young people.

    Rural America will love this. Expect that 90% of the 40-45% of Americans who love trump – nearly all of them living in bumfuck USA – will turn out to vote in November: up from about 70% four years ago.

    Urban America on the other hand will likely be divided and – even after everything that has happened and is still unfolding – not motivated enough to actually come out and vote for the democrat nominee and down ballot candidates in sufficient numbers to defeat the republicans.

    America: truly a country that deserves its fate.

    What on earth is Morrison thinking, tying Australia ever closer to such an unreliable and unhinged nation?

  50. BK

    Out of all the six days of protest in a nation with guns. We have seen very few deaths and violence except for some spectacular fires and those few deaths the media has amplified.

    The “if it bleeds it leads” focus of corporate media is doing immense damage to US society.

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