Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

Comments Page 38 of 41
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  1. As soon as I saw Trump put on that pouty face while holding the Bible I was convinced it was a fake effort.

    “Orangeman”, orange man, orangutan – same same, but different.

  2. Morrison says Australia should not import Black Lives Matter protests after deaths-in-custody rally

    Prime minister acknowledges we have ‘issues in this space’ but ‘we are dealing with it and don’t need to draw equivalence here’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/04/morrison-says-australia-should-not-import-black-lives-matter-protests-after-deaths-in-custody-rally

    Morrison said one of the reasons Australia had done well to get through the Covid-19 crisis was because people were genuinely banding together and supporting each other “and what we don’t want is people dividing people”.

    “So we respect people’s right to protest, but equally protesters have to respect all other Australians in how they conduct themselves,” he said.

    “Whether it’s this protest or other protests, I think all Australians are OK with there being protests, but when they see people inconvenience others just trying to get to work or do things like that, well, they obviously get the irrits. And I think it’s important that everyone respects everyone.”

  3. Daniel Andrews is right that people shouldn’t risk the spiking of C19 cases by gathering for a mass rally.
    All he can really do is warn people of the risk. The consequences will be what they will be.

  4. Just on a scale matter, Churchill killed far more people with his slack arsed attitude (at best) to the WW2 Bengal Famine than Trump has killed.
    Churchill sent in the Black and Tans.
    If you reckon today’s cops are bad, check out the behaviour of the Black and Tans.
    If you reckon Trump is racist then realize that Churchill’s total mindset was dominated by racism.
    If you reckon that Trump’s use of the military is bad, check out what Churchill’s various colonial troops did to the locals.
    If you reckon the authority’s use of tear gas is bad, check out Churchill’s attitude to the use of poison gas in the Middle East.
    Churchill was, compared to Trump, relatively personally couth and civilized.
    But he was by far and away more deadly than Trump.

  5. Pegasus

    Yes. Andrews is good. However he has his weak spots.

    He should be informing on how to protest safely. Not calling for no protests. Instead we are going to get some people not doing social distancing because they don’t have a government safety guide.

  6. Daniel Andrews in October 2019 re protests:

    Extinction Rebellion? It was all very inconvenient

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/extinction-rebellion-it-was-all-very-inconvenient-20191011-p52zwg.html

    The next day, the protesters blockaded the Treasury, and 56 people were arrested. Premier Daniel Andrews said the protests, part of Extinction Rebellion’s Spring Uprising, aren’t winning the climate cause any friends. His government’s tunnelling and road building are causing enough disruption for Melburnians already. Please don’t add to the inconvenience with your climate concerns.

  8. Love these ABC video cuts showing tradies chopping up treated pine with the drop saw, no dust bag, no mask, no earmuffs. Hopeless.

  10. I am overjoyed that the Extinction Rebels are going to call on Bandt to start the community debate on population and migration.

    If they are rebelling because they actually know about extinction, they will know that the last thing that Australian animals and plants need is for the human population to double.

    That doubling will accelerate extinctions.

    I trust that the Extinction Rebels get onto the Greens and force them to develop a sustainable population policy.

    There is no point rebelling if the flag carriers for sustainability, the Greens, avoid addressing population pressures on biodiversity.

  11. I can’t but help to think that with Mattis’ intervention, the paradigm has markedly shifted. Many serving senior officers would owe their promotion to him; so who do they owe their allegiance to? To a draft-dodging sociopath, or to a man who seems to be endowed with a degree of honour. Mind you, why he signed up to Trump is a mystery. That said, I’m willing to stick my neck out, predicting that Trump will be trounced in a landslide on November, 3.

  12. Daniel Andrews is reading the public sentiment and events in the US wrongly.

    The right to protest is at the heart of the Trump v the People conflict.

    Daniel Andrews has chosen Donald Trumps side.

  13. If Churchill was around today, what insults would he have for Donald Trump? Some options from his back catalog…

    ‘ After being disturbed on the toilet by the Lord Privy Seal, Winston said “Tell him I can only deal with one sh-t at a time!”’

  16. I do not have a real kitchen. I have a sink in a benchtop with no cupboards under it, no stove and just electric appliances on the bench, and an old dishwasher helping hold up the bench. I could use my bath removed to make the tiny bathroom bigger and safer for me to use. Now I would not expect the taxpayer to fund all of it, but just a tradie to help me and some friends do repairs and put in a second hand kitchen I already have bought on the cheap.

    I am not the only one would put a small subsidy straight into the economy, there are many like me. Others have greater needs, ramps, grab-rails, removing the bath and making a bigger shower recess, putting in sliding doors for wheelchair access etc.

    But overall, I would rather the money be spent on the homeless, who have no-where to shelter-in-place during this Covid-19 pandemic.

  18. Puffy

    One of the reasons I favour Spain’s solution of a basic income. Helps to massively reduce homelessness.

    A side benefit economic independence for people fleeing domestic violence.

  19. guytaur @ #1521 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 7:46 pm

    Daniel Andrews is reading the public sentiment and events in the US wrongly.

    The right to protest is at the heart of the Trump v the People conflict.

    Daniel Andrews has chosen Donald Trumps side.

    Look I realise people are getting bored with coronavirus, but it is still here and it is a killer plague.

    Stay the course for everyone else’s sake.

  20. Black Lives Matter – Australia should draw lessons from the riots in the US

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2020/02/2020/1591076819/black-lives-matter

    This country has ignored the rising number of Aboriginal deaths in custody since the 1991 royal commission – which Guardian Australia tallied at 432 yesterday – and not one police officer has ever been held accountable. The family of David Dungay, a 26-year-old Dunghutti man who died in Long Bay jail after he was brutally restrained by five prison guards – having said “I can’t breathe” 12 times – are still waiting for justice. Since Guardian Australia published its “Deaths Inside” investigation last August, there have been five more deaths and the paper reports that, according to the federal government’s own measures, the majority of recommendations dating back to the royal commission have either not been implemented or were only partly implemented. The ABC’s Indigenous affairs correspondent, Isabella Higgins, writes that “in some ways Australia’s criminalisation of its black citizens is even more pronounced than the United States, but we don’t have music, movies and TV shows explaining it to us as regularly”.

    Last week we learned that sacred caves in the Juukan Gorge, in WA’s Pilbara region, which showed continuous human occupation in the area going back 46,000 years, was legally detonated by Rio Tinto for an extension to an iron-ore mine – an act of vandalism that speaks to ignorance and total disregard for the world’s oldest civilisation. This morning, Greens MLC Robin Chapple told RN Breakfast that 463 applications had been made since 2010 to the so-called Aboriginal Cultural Material Committee under heritage laws to excavate, destroy, damage, conceal or in some way alter an Aboriginal site. Of those, 463 had been approved and not one refused. Let that sink in. As Burney told host Fran Kelly: “What’s being destroyed is irreplaceable. And quite frankly, Fran, I am really sick of – and I’m sure many other First Nations people are just sick of – the number of sites that get destroyed annually, and the number of sites that are irreplaceable, that have been destroyed over the last 230 years. These sites are not just, you know, caves full of stuff. These are equivalent to the most iconic religious sites in other religions.”

  21. Another quote from old Winston, aimed at Trump..

    “A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.“

  22. I’m sure Churchill would have questioned Trump’s manhood, as he did that of a famous Frenchman..

    Of French general and statesman Charles de Gaulle, Churchill said:

    “What can you do with a man who looks like a female llama surprised when bathing?“

  23. Rex

    I am not optimistic about a vaccine. The virus will be here for a year.
    People need to be able to protest.

    For safe social distancing that means no police heavy handed militaristic crack downs.

    Instead close more roads for space.

  25. And with great prescience of what we all think about Dotard – Churchill appeared to equate him with Stanley Baldwin…

    Speaking of conservative politician Stanley Baldwin, Churchill said: “I wish Stanley Baldwin no ill, but it would have been much better if he had never lived.“

  26. CC

    Yes.

    He totally ignores the benefits of the UBI out of fear of the right using to undo the gains that would be made.

    As if a job guarantee would not be undone by them faster. Automation and outsourcing the natural enemy of a job guarantee. Permanent unemployment incentive created.

  27. Jaeger @ #1738 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 5:32 pm

    As soon as I saw Trump put on that pouty face while holding the Bible I was convinced it was a fake effort.

    “Orangeman”, orange man, orangutan – same same, but different.

    That is highly offensive to our primate friends and I ask you to withdraw.

    orang has no connection to colour but means person and utan means forest, so literally, person of the forest. 🙂

  29. My grandfather used to say that whatever the crimes of the British Empire they paled into insignificance compared to the cruelty of the Dutch and Portuguese. I’m not sure if that’s true but it made everyone feel better.

  31. boerwarsays:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 7:35 pm
    “Just on a scale matter, Churchill killed far more people with his slack arsed attitude (at best) to the WW2 Bengal Famine than Trump has killed.
    Churchill sent in the Black and Tans.
    If you reckon today’s cops are bad, check out the behaviour of the Black and Tans.
    If you reckon Trump is racist then realize that Churchill’s total mindset was dominated by racism.
    If you reckon that Trump’s use of the military is bad, check out what Churchill’s various colonial troops did to the locals.
    If you reckon the authority’s use of tear gas is bad, check out Churchill’s attitude to the use of poison gas in the Middle East.
    Churchill was, compared to Trump, relatively personally couth and civilized.
    But he was by far and away more deadly than Trump.”

    Yes, Churchill was a charismatic figure who made many, many terrible decisions. He may, in part, be part of the reason for the decline of the UK as a world power – although he was an imperialist. However he is now in the past.

    We need to be careful not to use historical comparisons to mitigate or lessen the evaluation of damage that Trump is doing now and will almost certainly do in the future.
    His “Make America great again” is foreshadowing the decline of the USA as a world leader and himself as a National leader.

  32. boerwarsays:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 7:35 pm
    “Just on a scale matter, Churchill killed far more people with his slack arsed attitude (at best) to the WW2 Bengal Famine than Trump has killed.
    Churchill sent in the Black and Tans.
    If you reckon today’s cops are bad, check out the behaviour of the Black and Tans.
    If you reckon Trump is racist then realize that Churchill’s total mindset was dominated by racism.
    If you reckon that Trump’s use of the military is bad, check out what Churchill’s various colonial troops did to the locals.
    If you reckon the authority’s use of tear gas is bad, check out Churchill’s attitude to the use of poison gas in the Middle East.
    Churchill was, compared to Trump, relatively personally couth and civilized.
    But he was by far and away more deadly than Trump.”
    ________
    He also supported the Hiroshima bombing.

  33. So what qualifications do you need to become a policeman in Minnesota? The murderer and his 3 accomplices….

    Derek M. Chauvin

    Mr. Chauvin appears to have been reprimanded and possibly suspended after a woman complained in 2007 that he needlessly removed her from her car, searched her and put her into the back of a squad car for driving 10 miles an hour over the speed limit.

    Mr. Chauvin was the subject of at least 17 misconduct complaints over two decades, but the woman’s complaint is the only one detailed in 79 pages of his heavily redacted personnel file. The file shows that the complaint was upheld and that Mr. Chauvin was issued a letter of reprimand.

    In applying to the Minneapolis Police Department, Mr. Chauvin said he had served as a member of the U.S. Army, working for a time as a member of the military police. He also said he had worked as a security guard and as a cook for McDonald’s and another restaurant in the mid-1990s. The records said he was hired by the department in January 2001 as a part-time community service officer.

    J. Alexander Kueng

    Mr. Kueng had been an officer with the department for less than six months. He joined the force as a cadet in February 2019 and became an officer on Dec. 10, 2019, his personnel records show. He had previously worked as a community service officer with the department while he earned his bachelor’s degree in sociology at the University of Minnesota Twin Cities.

    He also worked as a security guard at a Macy’s and stocked shelves at a Target, and graduated from Minneapolis’s Patrick Henry High School in 2012.

    Thomas K. Lane

    Mr. Lane did not graduate from high school, his files shows, but he went on to get his G.E.D., then an associate degree from Century College, and a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota in criminology.

    He was accepted to the police academy in January 2019 but started working in the criminal justice system in 2017 as a probation officer. Mr. Lane previously worked a series of different jobs, from restaurant server to Home Depot sales associate. He volunteered at Ka Joog tutoring, working with Somali youth in Cedar Riverside.

    Tou Thao

    Mr. Thao held jobs at McDonald’s, at a grocery store as a stocker and as a security guard before being hired in 2008 as a community service officer in Minneapolis. But he worked there less than two years before being laid off in late 2009 because of budget cuts. Almost two years later, in 2011, he was recalled, then hired as a police officer in 2012.

    Mr. Thao graduated in 2004 from Fridley High School and attended North Hennepin Community College, where he studied for an associate degree in law enforcement but never graduated, according to his file.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/us/live-george-floyd-protests-today.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  36. nath

    Oh the Dutch and Portugese were cruel bustards all right but check out the competition the have re the Pomgolians. Have a look at Late Victorian Holocausts
    .
    …… famines that killed between 12 and 29 million Indians. ……the viceroy, Lord Lytton, insisted that nothing should prevent its export to England. In 1877 and 1878, at the height of the famine, grain merchants exported a record 6.4m hundredweight of wheat. As the peasants began to starve, officials were ordered “to discourage relief works in every possible way”. The Anti-Charitable Contributions Act of 1877 prohibited “at the pain of imprisonment private relief donations that potentially interfered with the market fixing of grain prices”. The only relief permitted in most districts was hard labour, from which anyone in an advanced state of starvation was turned away. In the labour camps, the workers were given less food than inmates of Buchenwald. In 1877, monthly mortality in the camps equated to an annual death rate of 94%.

    As millions died, the imperial government launched “a militarised campaign to collect the tax arrears accumulated during the drought”….
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2005/dec/27/eu.turkey

  37. Churchill was racist and a colonialist and he did indeed call the troops out against his own people, but he was also magnificent and right in 1940 and that eradicates all his flaws.

    Also, from 1940 onwards he was a benign patetnalist in his domestic policies, a One Nation Tory.

    He most assuredly would have detested Trump for being a coward and a bully. Also for Trump being a non drinker and having no real sense of humour or wit.

    With Churchill, you have a narcissist who was right about himself being the glorious one, around whom events would revolve.

  38. The Boogaloos have been nabbed..

    “The three men were arrested Saturday on the way to a protest in downtown Las Vegas after filling gas cans at a parking lot and making Molotov cocktails in glass bottles, according to a copy of the criminal complaint obtained by The Associated Press.

    “People have a right to peacefully protest. These men are agitators and instigators. Their point was to hijack the protests into violence,” Nicholas Trutanich, U.S. attorney in Nevada, told AP. He referred to what he called “real and legitimate outrage” over Floyd’s death.

    The complaint filed in U.S. District Court in Las Vegas on Wednesday said they self-identified as part of the “boogaloo” movement, which U.S. prosecutors said in the document is “a term used by extremists to signify coming civil war and/or fall of civilization.”

    Stephen T. Parshall, 35, Andrew T. Lynam Jr., 23, and William L. Loomis, 40, were being held on $1 million bond each in the Clark County jail Wednesday, according to court records. Lynam is from suburban Henderson and the others are from Las Vegas.

    The complaint said Lynam is an Army reservist, with Parshall formerly enlisted in the Navy and Loomis formerly enlisted in the Air Force.

    Each currently faces two federal charges — conspiracy to damage and destroy by fire and explosive, and possession of unregistered firearms. In state court, they’ve been accused of felony conspiracy, terrorism and explosives possession. Trutanich said they’ll be prosecuted in both jurisdictions.

    “This type of planning and intent on causing mayhem is terroristic and will not be tolerated,” said Steve Wolfson, the district attorney in Las Vegas.

    https://apnews.com/6223153093f08fa910c4ab445771b773?utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter

  39. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 8:24 pm

    The Boogaloos have been nabbed..
    _____________
    Dam. They are headed to ADX FLorence. 23 hour lockdown for 40 years. No more steak for those guys.

  40. My comments followed an earlier post which essentially stated that Trump was no Churchill.
    I was agreeing with that post. But for the opposite reason the original statement had been made.

  42. mundo says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 7:05 pm
    Windhover @ #1800 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 6:27 pm

    mundo says:
    Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 4:57 pm
    BK @ #1762 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 4:41 pm

    HomeBuilder is 80% politics, 20% economics.
    _____
    Supported by 100% marketing.
    Which is why they’ll get away with it.
    ………………………………………………

    Don’t agree with you M.
    The last thing voters like is missing out. FOMO is an important factor when it comes to a scheme like this. Many people too poor will miss out. Enough rich people will miss out. Plenty in-between will miss out for one reason or another.

    That’s a lot of resentment that advertising will just keep people reminded that they missed out whilst their next door neighbour scooped it up.
    Did you see the ABC news?
    …………. …………… ……………..
    Did you see the moon tonight?

    Or, in the off chance you are too stupid to understand the point, what does abc news tonight have to do with how people feel about the great house cash splash when their next door neighbours are adding the extension thanks to it?

  43. Who says America is fwarked?

    ‘The boogaloo movement, members of which are often referred to as boogaloo boys or boogaloo bois, is a loosely organized American far-right extremist movement.[3][4][5] Members of the boogaloo movement say they are preparing for a coming second American Civil War, which they call the “boogaloo”.[3][6] Members use the term to refer to violent uprisings against the federal government or left-wing political opponents, often anticipated to follow government confiscation of firearms.[1][7]

    The movement consists of anti-government and anti-law enforcement groups, as well as white supremacist groups who specifically believe the unrest will be a race war.[3][1][7] Groups in the boogaloo movement primarily organize online (particularly on Facebook), but have appeared at in-person events including the 2020 United States anti-lockdown protests and the May 2020 George Floyd protests, often identified by their attire of Hawaiian shirts and military fatigues.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boogaloo_movement

  45. My mum who grew up in occupied Holland and my dad, who was a guest of Hirohito on the Burma Railroad, used occasionally to have a bit of an argument about who was worse – the Germans or the Japanese. The Germans starved around 50,000 Dutch people to death. The Japanese starved approximately one in three of my father’s fellow captives to death.

    This made a very large impression on me when I was a child. Inter alia, I knew that I existed at all because neither of my parents had been starved to death.

    But they were both very reluctant to acknowledge the least negativity about Dutch colonial behaviour in the Netherlands East Indies. The historical record over the centuries is well known. It included genocide in the spice islands and systems of indentured labour that were little better than slavery. During my father’s post WW2 time in the royal dutch colonial army in the NEI (between 1947 and 1950) elements of the KNIL carried out village massacres. (Read up on Westerling if you want some details. But really, there is no need. They are the same banal but evil slaughters that all colonial armies carried out at one time or another.)

    What I learned from all that is that all of us have a huge capacity for evil if we are groomed the right way by the wrong people and the wrong culture and if we allow ourselves to become evil.

    I believe we have choice.

    I also strongly believe the reverse side of the coin: that each of us has a huge capacity for good if we are groomed the right way by the right people and the right culture and if we make the right personal choices.

    I also strongly believe that there is one sure lifeboat in these stormy seas, and that is the truth.

  47. Churchill held many views that were quite normal in his day. John Curtin was also a terrible racist but the ALP ignores that.

    Churchill is correctly venerated as the greatest person of the 20th Century.

  48. boerwar

    We do what fits in with our “tribe”. What fits in is doing “good” . Now as to what determines whether your tribe thinks ‘good’ is shooting ‘them over there’ rather than being nice to ‘them over there’ is a bit of a ??? Money, power and ?

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