Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition edges back into the lead in Newspoll, with Labor, the Greens and One Nation all down on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the Coalition has opened a 51-49 lead in the latest Newspoll, after the previous poll three weeks ago recorded a dead heat. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 43%, with Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 66%, with the disapproval not yet provided; Albanese is down one on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 37%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 56-29, compared with 56-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504. More detail to follow later.

UPDATE: Morrison’s disapproval rating turns out to be up two to 30%. These numbers have been incorporated into the BludgerTrack leadership trends which you can see on the sidebar and in greater detail here. Newspoll has put to respondents the same suite of questions concerning coronavirus in its last three polls, which record soaring confidence in “federal and state governments’ performance” in managing the economic impact (60% satisfied, up 13 points on last time, and 24% dissatisfied, down nine), preparing the health system (up 19 to 78% and down 13 to 15%) and informing Australians about how to protect themselves (up seven to 82% and down seven to 13%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

828 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. frednksays:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 12:26 pm

    “I remind the mindless Liberal types. Morrison was going to the footy while the country was busy shutting down”

    Can you show me the advice at that time from the CMO of Australia and NSW? No?

    How was he in contravention of it?

    How is complying with Medical Advice wrong?

  2. Can you show me the advice at that time from the CMO of Australia and NSW? No?

    How was he in contravention of it?

    How is complying with Medical Advice wrong?

    The CMO has not being giving medical advice, he has provided political cover, when not just spreading untrue gossip for partisan purposes, that anyone confuses what the CMO is doing with medical advice is beyond me. Anyone coming out of this with more egg on their faces than Morrison and Dutton for not stopping the Ruby Princess, it is their CMO.

  3. “There is no way public transport systems can operate under the restrictions – so don’t.”

    I always thought Buce was in favour of letting it rip and seeing thousands of people die. Now I know.

  4. I tend to work on the basis that to understand what a Politician will do going forward look at what they’ve done in the past.
    I honestly think Morrison feels that you get what you deserve in life. That if you were a better, more penitent person you’d succeed, just like he has. Blessed by God as it were.
    The fact that he’d throw his mother under a bus is besides the point, God has blessed him. I fully expect him to return to type and be confused when he is loathed again in very short order.
    Yes, there are a lot of “Good Australians” who religiously read our versions of Völkischer Beobachter and follow the party line as people burn and who will continue to do so, up until “they” come for them in the form of the dole queue (or in more sinister ways if you look at what Dutton is proposing) or some other factor leaves them in the gutter.
    At that point they will discover what a heartless POS Morrison is, given his rhetoric of the last few days I am expecting the various payments to revert to the subsistence levels of a few months ago, as thousands of people lose their jobs, houses, relationships and their lives Morrison will blame them, as he said over the weekend, we can’t allow people to become dependent on government handouts.
    So on that basis people must starve … or take what they cannot earn.

  5. This might be controversial but one solution could be to ask the local first Australians to manage the problem and in doing so basically asking them to run the high country national park.

    Sure. So long as they have the skills. Professional hunters are highly trained and have decades of experience.
    There are numerous projects around the country that are trying to engage the local indigenous community in a two way learning experience where the trained ecologists learn from any knowledge left in those communities (which can vary from immense to very little) and the ecologists/managers train them up for work as future parks managers and researchers etc. There are some great success stories here.

  6. Simon Katich @ #342 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 1:00 pm

    Did you see the moderators comment about “Give it a rest P1”?

    To be fair, the moderator can be a bit of a Scarlet Pimpernel.

    He also asked all posters to lift their game with this new thread.

    What do you think that was referring to?

  7. “How is complying with Medical Advice wrong?”

    When its being given by a ladder climbing sycophantic kidney doctor, rather than an impartial expert. It was apparent back in early March that we should have gone into lockdown. Scomo wanted to “wait and see”. Brenda stood there and smiled. Don’t pretend that he didn’t either, Buce. I have eyes and ears too.

  8. WeWantPaul
    There are a number of ways to offset share market falls and to profit from falling oil prices but the problem is the media tends to focus on the losses.

  9. There is no way public transport systems can operate under the restrictions – so don’t. Stop trying for the perfect solution.

    So long as noone gets into the CBD any other way and everyone from the PM through the CMO and down to the mcdonalds workers are in exactly the same position in the covid incubation and spreading devices I’m all for it. If this is just another way to kill poor people while the wealthy work from home, it is evil and should be condemned as evil.

  10. I think it’s a myth that Abbott successfully led the Coalition to victory in 2013 because he constantly banged on about budget emergencies, carbon taxes going up and up and generally making a spectacle of himself in high-viz vests.
    Abbott did have the support of a fairly uncritical and sometimes overtly rightwing media.
    For these same reasons Julia Gillard could not convince enough voters that the carbon price was not a broken promise and that it was also necessary to combat global warming.
    But what really did for Labor was the inexcusable infighting, as Kevin Rudd and those backing him, constantly undermined Gillard’s leadership through leaks and backgrounding to the media and sometimes through open mockery of her.
    If not for that, I think there’s a good chance Labor could have won a third term and bedded down such worthwhile policies such as carbon pricing, the Gonski education reforms and a properly functioning NBN. Alas we’ll never know.
    Once in government, Abbott’s style pretty quickly undid him. I don’t think being a loudmouth is usually the path to political success.

  11. And if you want evidence that closing borders early and locking down early work, take one look at Vietnam

    No local infections for a month. Plus they’re pretty much back to normal activity levels. Hows them apples, Buce?

    Compare and contrast with what Scomo did. Too late on both issues. We had thousands of cases when we could have had hundreds or fewer. And we’d be back to business now.

  12. I would hate to be able to see into Morrison’s mind, but it’s possible to wonder what he thinks a future Australia should look like.

  13. What do you think that was referring to?

    I dont know. I dont read the whole thread.

    Which is my point. One I believe you have stated previously. If the moderator wants a different tone then that would require more intervention or a revolution where blog regulars change long held habits aided by some group management/peer pressure.

  14. WWP

    If you are to believe the media, Gladys is going to enforce social distancing on public transport.
    So the queues will keep growing and lots of people are simply going to be physically excluded from the Sydney CBD. You can predict what the politics of that will be…

  15. Simon Katichsays:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 12:47 pm

    “There needs to be a professional force of hunters in Australia ”

    Are you reading my emails?

    So, you’re the Mossad guy.

    There is a ready made pool of employees – they are called Veterans (mainly Army because the Navy and Airforce only use their F88s for ceremonial duties – Clearance Divers excused).

    There should be a nation wide shooting program that coordinates with State and Local Governments and land owners and lessors to allow the widest possible access to these shooters.

    There’s a heap of ex-Army guys and gals who would be happy as pigs in poo to be given a Tojo and a few guns and ammo, a house to live in and off they go shooting anything that isn’t native. Make it a fairly flat management structure and Bob’s your uncle. Hire a few Helo’s occasionally or use ADF ones to get amongst it occasionally.

    One absurdity of the ADF is that it is so risk averse that on their ranges, if you shoot a feral animal, there is hell to pay for anyone who does that – even if it is in arc standing in front of a target.

  16. WeWantPaul
    There are a number of ways to offset share market falls and to profit from falling oil prices but the problem is the media tends to focus on the losses.

    I just think as the inevitable continuing decline of the US sees China rise, and I think it is worse if China doesn’t, I’m not at all sure our markets are going to do at all well. I don’t have a lot of faith in the markets. They’ve been very good at maximizing inequality, and they make a lot of money for people who add nothing to the economy but play in them, but for most people I think they are part of a system that has clearly and overtly failed, not part of the solution.

  17. Just remember if the trains are full (to social distance compliant capacity) and the roads are gridlocked, you can always take your chopper to get around…

  18. Simon Katich @ #356 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 1:13 pm

    What do you think that was referring to?

    I dont know. I dont read the whole thread.

    Which is my point. One I believe you have stated previously. If the moderator wants a different tone then that would require more intervention or a revolution where blog regulars change long held habits aided by some group management/peer pressure.

    My observation over many years is that posters can do anything they like apart from ignore the moderators directions, abuse the moderator or criticise the Fremantle Dockers.

  19. WeWantPaul says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 12:57 pm
    “GST – Howard succeeded

    He succeeded in getting it in, it did approximately none of the things it was supposed to do, bit like the insane CGT discount. ”

    You’ll have to expand a bit beyond the gratuitous insult level to make your point because I’ve got no idea what you mean.

  20. lizzie @ #95 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 8:41 am

    I’d agree with Bandt on this. The irony is that Morrison has already been raising our debt levels, but not in pursuit of fairness.

    The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, said: “Depression-era job numbers demand a Depression-era response. That means not shying away from debt, but using it to invest in building a cleaner, fairer Australia.”

    “We can’t cut our way out of this crisis. The government and big corporations are calling for more cuts – to company taxes, to public spending, to workers’ rights – but that is a recipe for disaster. We must invest to recover.”

    I’m not sure how any genuine progressive could disagree with Bandt.

  21. People get very narky on this thread. There is goading. There is trolling. And it often snowballs into repetitive mind numbing childish idiocy. It is what it is.

    I just scroll on by. There isnt enough respect of any poster on here to tolerate someone stepping in and saying ‘you are both being numbnuts – FFS STFU’. So if it is to come from someone, it has to come from the moderator. Unfortunately, that would require him to truly be omnipresent.

  22. WeWantPaul @ #332 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 12:45 pm

    Got a list of the skilled funds managers that have made a killing out of covid-19 and the oil price crash this year?

    Buy all the oil in the world at -$40/barrel and then sell it all back at -$2/barrel?

    Or just do the first thing and then disappear with your billions.

  23. CudChewer
    “If you are to believe the media, Gladys is going to enforce social distancing on public transport.
    So the queues will keep growing and lots of people are simply going to be physically excluded from the Sydney CBD. You can predict what the politics of that will be…”

    I agree that combining social distancing and public transport is not practicable.

    As an alternative to strict social distancing while on board the bus / train / ferry, could we compel all passengers to wear masks, and apply hand sanitiser upon entry? Both masks and sanitiser would be provided.

  24. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 1:07 pm

    “There are a number of ways to offset share market falls and to profit from falling oil prices ”

    There are but they cost money and reduce gains in a rising market. Good luck trying to convince most investors to do that.

    I’ve played that game – the long run benefit from being long in the market far outweighs the risks and reward of timing the market or paying for downside protection.

  25. Buce, I have met a few feral pest controllers/hunters in NZ. It is far more involved than just knowing your way around a gun. In fact, the whole idea is to get to a point you dont need one.

    There is a lot of planning, scoping, coordination. Not to mention the actual field craft of surviving and hunting in remote locations for long periods and walking incredible distances. There is tracking, setting traps, sometimes poisons, cameras….. it is a full on job and yes, one that some defense force peeps would be good at.

  26. Apparently Martin Parkinson gives the Greens are right old bollocking on 4Corners tonight, over the 2009 disgrace of voting against Action on Climate Change

  27. Simon Katich @ #369 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 1:20 pm

    People get very narky on this thread. There is goading. There is trolling. And it often snowballs into repetitive mind numbing childish idiocy. It is what it is.

    I just scroll on by. There isnt enough respect of any poster on here to tolerate someone stepping in and saying ‘you are both being numbnuts – FFS STFU’. So if it is to come from someone, it has to come from the moderator. Unfortunately, that would require him to truly be omnipresent.

    Mundo for Moderator!
    We want Mundo!

    Let me hear it……we want Mu……I can’t hear you! WE WAN…oh fuck it.

  28. Bucephalus says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 11:35 am
    meher baba says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 11:18 am

    If I were the ALP I would be looking very closely at Dreyfus, Freelander and Danby as Mossad plants.

    This is anti-Semitic sledging from a grubby RW partisan. This is absolutely unworthy of this place.

  29. Kakuru

    “As an alternative to strict social distancing while on board the bus / train / ferry, could we compel all passengers to wear masks, and apply hand sanitiser upon entry?”

    That’s the kind of medical experiment you could never get ethical approval for.
    Put it this way, I would never sit on a crowded train, even with a mask. Its just too risky regardless.
    Even if everyone complied perfectly, you’d get outbreaks.
    Worse, they’d be the kind of outbreaks where it would be impossible to trace effectively.

    So no, there’s no way to run public transport at more than a fraction of capacity and not invite a second wave.

    Edit: People should be wearing masks even with social distancing – simply to reduce the amount of virus you shed.

  30. Reuters reports russia/china beef deal concluded 10,000 tonnes of russian beef to china this year. and china is stepping up purchase of usa barley under existing contracts.

    birmingham still waiting for that phone call? christiansen still waiting for that ambassador to get back to him.

    so goes the bwana of the sth pacific – suckered. what a pathetic shambles. -a.v.

  31. reuters reports russia/china beef deal concluded, 10,000 tonnes of russian beef to china this year. and china is stepping up purchase of usa barley under existing contracts.

    birmingham still waiting for that phone call? christiansen still waiting for that ambassador to get back to him?

    so goes the bwana of the sth pacific – suckered. what a pathetic shambles. -a.v.

  32. Bucephalus @ #332 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 12:54 pm

    mundosays:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 12:19 pm

    “Gillard succeeded.”

    No, she failed on her Carbon Tax.

    Floating Dollar – Hawke succeeded
    Superannuation -Hawke succeeded
    GST – Howard succeeded

    See how it works.

    No she didn’t.
    It was legislated and it operated.
    The voters then decided they didn’t want it.
    That’s different.

  33. Continually Insufferable @ #211 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 11:25 am

    The Australian electorate will do what it nearly always does – elect an LNP Federal Government. We will all be the poorer for it, but that’s the way we roll in this country.

    Centrist Labor types prefer the neo-lib trickle-down methodology.

    Morrisons way is far more acceptable to you than Bandts progressive agenda announced today.

  34. any comment, mundo?

    “Chris Bowen says Labor has wanted to see “more Marise Payne in the debate and less George Christensen” when it comes to Australia’s response to China.

    But he says the “progress” is welcome.

  35. We’re all very lucky that for some reason Morrison thought the better about going to the footie and that the match was shut down. We would likely have had a jump in cases in NSW of at least one order of magnitude if these events had not been closed. Fortunately his bravado was tempered by some good sense.

  36. So no, there’s no way to run public transport at more than a fraction of capacity and not invite a second wave.

    It is just the very worst neofeudal shitfuckery and frankly people advocating it will have nothing to complain about if they end up in a queue for a guillotine. They will certainly have earned it. Not that I would ever advocate violence or a revolution, I’m just suggesting it would probably be morally justified with this kind of shitfuckery going on.

  37. sprocket
    “Apparently Martin Parkinson gives the Greens are right old bollocking on 4Corners tonight, over the 2009 disgrace of voting against Action in Climate Change”

    Good on him. In this case (as in so many other cases) the Greens would only settle for the perfect solution, and ended up getting bugger-all.

  38. Continually Insufferablesays:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 1:26 pm

    “This is anti-Semitic sledging from a grubby RW partisan. This is absolutely unworthy of this place.”

    Another tool who doesn’t do humour. You must struggle with Sacha Baron Cohen’s work.

    If you are looking for anti-Semitism you’re picking the wrong guy.

    How was your Pesach – mine was quieter than usual but possibly more meaningful – even for an Atheist.

  39. sprocket_ @ #385 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 1:30 pm

    any comment, mundo?

    “Chris Bowen says Labor has wanted to see “more Marise Payne in the debate and less George Christensen” when it comes to Australia’s response to China.

    But he says the “progress” is welcome.

    Chris Bowen? You mean the bloke who said don’t vote for the Labor party?
    Mundo has no comment other than to say I quite liked Chris’s moustache.

  40. Something that people here noticed a while back in their local areas . People had already started voting with their feet before the government “took steps”. I reckon the scenes from Italy at the time were a pretty convincing argument that “this is serious”. From the UK.
    ………………………………………………….
    Mobility data from Apple has revealed that the coronavirus outbreak was already having a significant impact on people’s behaviour long before the government imposed lockdown restrictions.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-lockdown-uk-date-travel-a9516901.html

  41. sprocket_ @ #382 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 1:25 pm

    Apparently Martin Parkinson gives the Greens are right old bollocking on 4Corners tonight, over the 2009 disgrace of voting against Action on Climate Change

    Then he’s as stupid as right wing LibNats and Labor types who slept through the decrease of emissions as a result of the Clean Energy Package of the minority Govt.

    Fair dinkum how do these people get away with their treachery ..??

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