The Australian reports the Coalition has opened a 51-49 lead in the latest Newspoll, after the previous poll three weeks ago recorded a dead heat. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 43%, with Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 66%, with the disapproval not yet provided; Albanese is down one on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 37%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 56-29, compared with 56-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504. More detail to follow later.
UPDATE: Morrison’s disapproval rating turns out to be up two to 30%. These numbers have been incorporated into the BludgerTrack leadership trends which you can see on the sidebar and in greater detail here. Newspoll has put to respondents the same suite of questions concerning coronavirus in its last three polls, which record soaring confidence in “federal and state governments’ performance” in managing the economic impact (60% satisfied, up 13 points on last time, and 24% dissatisfied, down nine), preparing the health system (up 19 to 78% and down 13 to 15%) and informing Australians about how to protect themselves (up seven to 82% and down seven to 13%).
” Let’s see if we can all lift our game a little on the next thread.”
Thank you William for the unintentional humour 🙂
And despite Victoria having a sulk, the rest of the country has been good.
One overseas case in NSW. One overseas case in QLD and an historical case in WA.
Fingers crossed…
Basically par for the course. People have more on their minds than politics at present.
If you don’t have employees, then how can you justify applying for inclusion in the Job Keeper program?
If you run a B&B, then why shouldn’t you negatively gear expenses? Unless you’re not disclosing the income either maybe.
You have no assets yet are forced to submit (your words) 14 separate documents to justify a dole claim.
Obviously you or your spouse have a few questions to answer. At least Centrelink thinks so. That’s why they knocked you back, presumably.
All of the changes since the last poll are within or close to the margin of error (2.6% for a sample of 1500).
Lars,
You are dead right about Australia and New Zealand drifting apart politically. The political culture in both countries has diverged so much for societies that had a common beginning.
Again you hit the nail on the head by citing MMP as the best example of this.
However MMP getting up was pretty much an accident. It was a unique set of events and the early 90’s recession that brought MMP into being.
I just don’t think it would be replicated in Australia. Even in the current circumstances. It was on the political agenda well before the early 90’s recession hit NZ.
Interesting point….. if MMP ever got onto the agenda in Australia, the most strident opponents would be the Proportional Representation Society of Australia.
They are Hare-Clark or bust.
Lars Von Trier @ #1326 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 9:45 pm
Interesting to see PHON tanking as her latest stunts to gain attention during the COVID Crisis have fallen flat on their face beside Pauline in her paddock.
NZ also has a unicameral parliament and no states, of course, which puts a different complexion on things.
MMP would probably be a good fit for South Australia though, where they have the problem of enormous, sparsely populated rural areas that vote very heavily one way, and a core of compact urban areas that are more finely balanced.
Isle of Rocks – don’t be so pessimistic about MMP.
Can you imagine the Senate voting system changing? Hard to believe it was FPTP up to 1949.
There’a deep pessimism about politics in the Australian population – mainly because of the alienation from the current system. MMP would be a corrective – it would inevitably lead to a political realignment of political parties, a veritable renaissance.
Don’t be fooled too much about NZ.
They have a lot of right-wing nutters – with guns, some of them.
There’s a significant Hunting demographic there. Big brave blokes who take helicopters up the mountain, shoot a couple of stags, then come back down with their trophies. Real heros they are.
It’s not all sweetness and Jacinda-lovin’ under the Long White Cloud.
Pauline who?
Well that would be an argument made by opponents of against MMP as well.
Australia is too enormous for it. Rural electorates become too large. I can easily see rural angst being mined for opposition to MMP.
caf @ #8 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:15 pm
MMP would probably be a good fit for South Australia though, where they have the problem of enormous, sparsely populated rural areas that vote very heavily one way, and a core of compact urban areas that are more finely balanced.
NZ has had its share of right wing governments setting it backwards…
OK, put it another way – if you were teleported to the Constitutional Convention in 1890 knowing everything that played out subsequently : – Would you
1) Choose federalism
2) OPV
3) Bicameral parliament
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/17/politics/state-polls-2020-analysis/index.html
Poll of the week: A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 46% to 43% lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin.
The poll matches the last poll from Marquette, which also had Biden up by 3 points in Wisconsin.
What’s the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether or not they’re an accurate representation of what is going on at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is to compare state poll results to the past presidential vote in a given state. I did so for all telephone polls that called cell phones since the beginning of April.
When we average out these state polls, they suggest that Biden’s running about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s final margin.
In other words, the state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points.
Bushfire Bill @ #4 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:05 pm
For god’s sake, BB, give it a break. Try reading a little about the subject before you make even more of an ass of yourself.
There was a link explaining JobKeeper posted on the last thread. Please read it before posting any more nonsense.
The Australian Left’s love affair with NZ is purely Jacinda based and her election came as a surprise to everyone including herself. It was only a whim of Winston Peters that saved NZ Labour from Pasokification
Do not forget that for much of the last 10 years NZ has had National Governments that make our Liberals look positively benign.
LVT
No George Houston Reid was right. NSW was badly done over by FederaTion and Lyne and Tosspot Toby were too weak to do anything about it.
The Australian Federal Council could have muddled along while NSW became a middle level World power
P1, YOU brought up the subject.
For someone who can’t even manage a simple dole application, even when millions are out of work on a coronavirus no-brainer, you’re pretty full of yourself calling ME ignorant of how Centrelink works, LOL.
If you’re such an expert, and seemingly know all there is to be known, how come they knocked you back on a sure thing?
You’re obviously missing something!
Voters are marking down the Greens over their leadership ballot omnishambles.
Qanda tommorow:
Lars,
Well you might have a point. Maybe I am too pessimistic.
I can see support for MMP from One Nation and Green voters who want to elect One Nation and Green MPs. “Don’t waste my vote!” “Count my vote!” etc.
From there MMP wouldn’t need a majority of major party voters combined to win a referendum.
It also depends on how it was pitched. It would have to be about “common sense” rather than fairness. “X% of the vote must win X% of the seats”
Once introduced MMP would lead to a shake up. But it too would settle down into familiar patterns.
In NZ, what was Labour vs National is now Labour and friends vs National and Friends.
In fact currently there are more political parties represented in the Australian Parliament than the NZ Parliament. There are 5 in NZ (National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, ACT). In Australia there are 7, if you count the Coalition as a single party (Coalition, Labor, Greens, KAP, Centre Alliance, One Nation, Lambie)
But multi-party government would salve the cynicism that power is locked up by one party.
Lars Von Trier @ #9 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:19 pm
Bushfire Bill @ #19 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:37 pm
Your information is out of date. Perhaps by decades. Do please read the link someone posted about JobKeeper in the last thread. You could also usefully look up the JobSeeker application process.
Then feel free to come back and apologize.
Let it go, Player One.
Sorry P1. You’re beyond help.
This conversation is closed.
Lars Von Trier @ #14 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:23 pm
Well a single nation for Australia is a good thing and I don’t think would have happened without a form of federalism, so 1). 3) will come with 1) as a federation needs a states house.
However pre-1949 the Senate voting system was a joke, so yes I would have entrenched a form of PR if possible.
This article by John Uhr, is a great background on the introduction of Hare-Clark for the Senate by the Chifley Government. While there was self-interest involved in well, there was long history of agitation for Hare-Clark for the Senate from 1901
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 10:29 pm
The Australian Left’s love affair with NZ is purely Jacinda based and her election came as a surprise to everyone including herself. It was only a whim of Winston Peters that saved NZ Labour from Pasokification
Do not forget that for much of the last 10 years NZ has had National Governments that make our Liberals look positively benign.
_________________________________
Give me Maurice Williamson and his big gay rainbow over anything that we have in the LNP any day of the week…
Newspoll well within the margin of error – LNP in the low 40s, ALP in the high-mid 30s, Greens round 7-8%, with 2PP roughy even. On those figures, the Coalition would most likely get re-elected, but we’re fair way away from any election, and right now the government is getting credit for a solid Covid response. The situation will of course be different in 2021/22, with the health crisis mostly past, but the economic shit-pile still steaming.
Hugo most likely we are going to see either a resurgence of the virus or else the economy being hobbled when its discovered that we cannot fully reopen things safely. When that sinks in, the honeymoon will be over.
That’s the status quo ante anyway though. It wouldn’t be changing the existing electorates, it’d just be adding top-up list members as required by proportionality.
Re: status quo ante…. good point
However, I don’t think there is public appetite for more MPs.
caf @ #30 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 11:28 pm
Hugo,
I agree with everything you have said and it must be galling to Morrison that after everything he has done wrt COVID-19 the electorate still hasn’t pushed his government into the stratosphere.
I think there’s an element of acknowledgement that the Premiers have helped to make the response as good as it has been, plus people haven’t forgotten about Angus Taylor and the Jam Land Affair or the Sports Grants slush fund for re-election.
The approval of Morrison’s government is tepid and although the Primary Vote has increased for the Coalition, as Hugo and Cud have pointed out, the worst is yet to come. All before we get to the next election. And there won’t be money to be pulled out of hollow logs to splash around with a big vote-buying exercise either next time.
And, as Cud points out, what will be the scenario to be dealt with if we get the Second Wave? Going by the behaviour of people there will be one. And what if it happens just when Morrison wants to pull the financial rug out from under people? Not to mention all the people still feeling the adverse effects from the Bushfires.
Anyway, I’ll be interested to see how Morrison spins his way out of what is assuredly coming his way.
Anyway, with the Coalition ahead 51-49, that must mean they are going to lose the next election. 😀
Pure MMP, such as operates in New Zealand, would be constitutionally impossible to implement without a referendum because it would mean to-up seats being able to vary the number of MPs. That would require a referendum that, because it changes the provisions for the proportionate representation of each state in a house of parliament, would have to pass in every single state.
We could have something like the system that the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly have, with a fixed number of top-up seats (if the top-up seats were state based), without a referendum.
Hugoaugogo says:
Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 11:17 pm
Newspoll well within the margin of error – LNP in the low 40s, ALP in the high-mid 30s, Greens round 7-8%, with 2PP roughy even. On those figures, the Coalition would most likely get re-elected, but we’re fair way away from any election, and right now the government is getting credit for a solid Covid response. The situation will of course be different in 2021/22, with the health crisis mostly past, but the economic shit-pile still steaming.
With just one exception – 1983 – Labor have only won from opposition when the economy has been performing well. The postwar successes in this respect – 1972 and 2007 – occurred at the conclusion of very long booms, as indeed occurred in 1929.
If – as expected – the economy is struggling in 2022, or whenever the next election is held, the LNP should be favoured to win, even if only narrowly. There would need to be a very substantial shift in opinions in Queensland and WA for Labor to have much of a shot. The pandemic has sensitised behaviours and expectations around fears – fears for personal/ family safety and economic security. Unless things go very badly for Morrison, the arousal of fear/s as the conditioning mood should favour his political chances.
If Labor’s PV is polling at 35% nationally, it must be at best in the low 30’s in WA and Queensland. Labor cannot win federal elections if their PV is so low in these 2 States. It’s electorally impossible for Labor to win the necessary net 8-9 seats unless it can make gains in the export-facing economies. Maybe Morrison’s misadventures in trade diplomacy will damage him in these electorates. But so far his posturing seems to have done him no harm. This is regrettable because he’s certainly dicing with a resumption of prosperity.
Heh
In other words, in Libkin Garden….we are still f#$%^Ed
Considering their political position and the need to develop an economic revival narrative, it’s no surprise to hear the LNP talking up gas and IR ‘reform’. They will be hoping to wedge Labor on the former and bust a few unions with the latter. The twin themes of LNP politics of the last 40 years will be on constant replay – environmental exploitation and labour repression.
And just to prove that nothing will change in Libkin Garden, the Greens will resume their campaign for the LNP. They already have, as we’ve seen among the bludgers in recent days.
It is a fair result for the two majors. If Morrison can control the urge to dismantle the economic supports within six months i would say he deserves a tick for most of his part in handling this situation and if Albo can continue to take advantage of the gaps in Morrison’s policy response then he is well positioned to be competitive.
Nicotine may have a benefit after all.
“ In France, research at a major Paris hospital suggested a substance in tobacco – possibly nicotine – may be stopping patients who smoke from catching Covid-19. Clinical trials of nicotine patches are awaiting the approval of the country’s health authorities.
…………..
However, the researchers insisted they were not encouraging the population to start smoking, which carries other potentially fatal health risks and kills 50% of those who take it up.
While nicotine may protect smokers from the virus, those who have caught it often develop more serious symptoms because of the toxic effect of tobacco smoke on the lungs, they say.“
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/plan-study-nicotine-patches-potential-coronavirus-treatment-covid-19
Happy anniversary to federal Labor for losing the unloseable election one year ago through wilful ignorance, political ineptitude and stupidity.
Uh huh.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/spending-would-collapse-without-crisis-payments-to-households-20200516-p54tk8.html
I imagine that the political support for the Morrison government would similarly collapse if they pulled the financial rug out from under people.
Four Corners tonight may make you angry.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-18/four-corners-climate-change-public-servants-reveal-anger/12235180
Gee what rock has Ken Henry been hiding under for the past 15 years?
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, May 18, 2020 at 7:14 am
Happy anniversary to federal Labor for losing the unloseable election one year ago through wilful ignorance, political ineptitude and stupidity.
———————————————————
You falling for the media propaganda , what the media did expose was how the opinion polls were corrupt , despite the denials from the so called polling experts and analysis, that these opinion polls weren’t use for propaganda
Newspoll pretty well within the margin of error.
People are giving Morrison a tick for Covid management and a tick for his economic aspirations/plans/China fight.
While some might think that the leadership selection process issue has cost the Greens around a quarter of their polling support this year, I am inclined to think that the dilettantes among the Greens, confronted with personal existential issues that may conceivably be impacted by which party they support, are bailing out of the game playing.
***
I think Rex Douglas lives under a rock as well. He obviously wasn’t around to notice Sports Rorts, The Greens’ Convoy of Political Stupidity to Queensland, the lavish taxpayer-funded ads for the Morrison government, Tim Wilson’s taxpayer-funded dance around the nation to spread misinformation and lies about Franking Credits, the Death Tax trucks and facebook fake memes campaign, nor the 90 million dollar contribution in kind to the Coalition by Clive Palmer and his United Australian Astroturf Party.
As the saying goes, there are none so blind as those who will not see.