Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition edges back into the lead in Newspoll, with Labor, the Greens and One Nation all down on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the Coalition has opened a 51-49 lead in the latest Newspoll, after the previous poll three weeks ago recorded a dead heat. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 43%, with Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 66%, with the disapproval not yet provided; Albanese is down one on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 37%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 56-29, compared with 56-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504. More detail to follow later.

UPDATE: Morrison’s disapproval rating turns out to be up two to 30%. These numbers have been incorporated into the BludgerTrack leadership trends which you can see on the sidebar and in greater detail here. Newspoll has put to respondents the same suite of questions concerning coronavirus in its last three polls, which record soaring confidence in “federal and state governments’ performance” in managing the economic impact (60% satisfied, up 13 points on last time, and 24% dissatisfied, down nine), preparing the health system (up 19 to 78% and down 13 to 15%) and informing Australians about how to protect themselves (up seven to 82% and down seven to 13%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

828 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. I have actually, Buce. And when it was first on TV. Anyhoo, I’m going to sleep. So you will have to find someone else to poke fun at. 🙂

  2. C@tmomma says:

    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:47 pm

    [‘Wow. The Liberals really are getting down in the gutter to attack Anastacia Palacsjuk.’]

    Laming’s an entitled sicko, who owes Palaszczuk an unqualified apology. With Dutton’s recent attack on the Palaszczuk Government’s decision to attempt to save 5000 Virgin jobs, coupled with Laming’s disgusting FB post, one could conclude that the Tories are most worried about October’s election.

  3. I have actually, Buce. And when it was first on TV. Anyhoo, I’m going to sleep. So you will have to find someone else to poke fun at. 🙂
    But I thought you would be pleased that Xi decided to support your man’s inquiry? 😉

  4. Mavis, I concluded exactly the same thing.

    Btw, my son said that if anyone at the trailer park wants their astrological chart done, he’d be pleased to help.

  5. The attack by Laming was disgusting. He has finally apologized and accepted his action was completely unacceptable. Really dumb thing to do as she is under more than enough pressure at present.

  6. Catmomma,

    If you believe that the Chicoms will “support” the inquiry then I have some land to sell you in West Fremantle- uninterruptible ocean views.

  7. I’ve always wondered what the kitty was for the first journalist/interviewer to get Julia Gillard to use the words “Carbon Tax” in that sense. There would’ve been one, even if only kudos. I don’t give a rats how many interesting back roads Ewett wanders down, won’t forgive her for that.

  8. Rudd made the error of placing his political fortunes in the hands of his enemies. They duly broke the promises they’d made to him, destroying his leadership and his government. Gillard did the same thing and was destroyed by the deal she did with the Greens. The LNP won and so did the Greens. The country is the poorer for their successes.

    Labor might eventually return to power in Canberra. Let’s hope they never again have to rely on their enemies in order to govern.

  9. As it turns out, a carbon tax is not necessary. The most economical forms of electricity supply are renewable and they no longer need the support of a carbon tariff. The legacy investments in obsolete coal-fired and gas-fired plant are being protected by the LNP, who are serving the financial interests of their proprietors. Inevitably, this obsolete plant will be retired. As this happens it will be replaced by renewables + storage. And as this occurs, the re-industrialisation of the economy will become possible.

  10. C@tmomma says:

    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 11:08 pm

    [‘Mavis, I concluded exactly the same thing.

    Btw, my son said that if anyone at the trailer park wants their astrological chart done, he’d be pleased to help.’]

    I see davidwh has said that Laming has apologised, most likely at the direction of Morrison. This is not the first time he’s behaved like a goon but at least he’s manned up on this occasion. And thanks for your offer, via your son, to read the tea leafs on the trailer park. I’ll ask around.

  11. Morrison’s contribution to trade diplomacy was to attempt to politicise the pandemic for domestic gains. He’s an idiot. This is something for which he seems likely to be rewarded.

  12. Continually Insufferable says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 11:33 pm

    Yes, he such an idiot that the Unions and ALP have absolutely roasted him. Apparently.

  13. Gillard acceded to the “CarbonTax” name in a desperate attempt to get past the point & talk about policy. More a misplaced faith in the shit that comprises the Australian journalistic corps than stupidity.

  14. So, as of a few minutes ago, it has officially been a year since I posted my jumbo-sized election-night rant. Relive it in all of its frustrated, stream-of-consciousness, syntax-challenged glory here, should you be so inclined: https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/18/federal-election-2019-live/comment-page-33/#comment-3178730

    Knowing now how the party has seen fit to treat its third term in opposition, I observe the final paragraph of that rant and don’t know whether to laugh or cry:

    The anti-2007 strategy having now gone down in flames, it’ll be interesting to see where we go from here. If certain figures within the ALP are finally willing to swallow their pride, we may, at long last, start to get somewhere.

  15. itsthevibe

    Why would you expect them to change? Everyone keeps getting paid whether they win or lose apart from a few marginal seat members. The Unions keep funding them and the AEC shovels money their way.

  16. Vibe…

    Labor supporters almost always fail to understand a fundamental truth in Australian politics – the LNP are actually very very adroit at the game. They are highly skilled in listening to and communicating with their supporters. They start with substantial advantages and know how to use them. In this pursuit they are utterly determined and ruthless. They are not to be under-estimated, and yet they so often are.

    It’s really pointless for Labor to beat itself up. Labor have few of the strengths needed to win Federal elections and have to campaign from a position of weakness most of the time. Labor have won from Opposition just 4 times in the last century. The longest interval between such victories was 43 years, between 1929 and 1972, which included the nation-making terms of Curtin and Chifley, who came to power as a minority rather than as a result of an electoral win.

    Those who long for an alternative to LNP rule should take note. Such episodes are very rare. They cannot happen as long as the Center-Left is divided. And yet we are more divided now than we have been at any time since Federation. This being so, we will continue to lose. Nothing is more certain. If we want to change the Government, we must first change ourselves. This seems to be too much for us. Unless and until the dysfunction on the left is resolved we will not win.

  17. citizen @ #708 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 9:25 pm

    This is a frightening statistic.

    You might be reading too much into it. Tell people they can have $10k now instead of waiting until they’re 68 or 70 or however old the Libs are going to raise the retirement age to between now and whenever they’re old enough to actually retire and a lot of people will go for it. Legitimately dire financial straits or no.

  18. CI

    “Labor supporters almost always fail to understand a fundamental truth in Australian politics – the LNP are actually very very adroit at the game. They are highly skilled in listening to and communicating with their supporters. They start with substantial advantages and know how to use them. In this pursuit they are utterly determined and ruthless. They are not to be under-estimated, and yet they so often are.”

    Try telling C@t that. The LNP are better at the game. Hence my comment that the Labor organisation needs to level up – become more professional. Be better at the game. Whats worse than the tribal “don’t pick on Labor” reaction is the fact that Labor itself just isn’t listening to these kinds of constructive criticism. Its core group of “thinkers” just don’t reach out and talk to people with well informed views on things like how to reach voters. They have a very few trusted advisors. A very small talent pool.

  19. Gina and Twiggy and Clive and other fossil fuel companies will be lining up with their greedy little hands out if this joke go through.
    The Emissions Reduction Fund, surprise surprise, is chaired by a former Business Council of Australia president so of course he thinks it’s a wonderful idea. Maatteess looking after maatteess.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-looks-to-carbon-capture-for-climate-action-20200518-p54u4n.html

    Deputy Dope and the Dopey Clan will just drift along in Sheriff Trump’s dust as he continues to wreak havoc everywhere. Deputy Dope will make meaningless noises and just pull his bandanna up to stop choking on the fallout from Dust Storm Donald.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/on-the-brink-of-peril-australia-is-left-wondering-what-the-mad-sheriff-has-in-mind-20200518-p54txp.html

  20. 51-49 is not particularly high for an incumbent government in this climate.

    Other governments that have had a ‘good response’ to COVID-19 have had large bumps to their popularity. For example, South Korea’s response to COVID-19 handed the ruling party a landslide victory.

    I wonder if voters associated the ‘good response’ to state governments rather than the federal government.

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