Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition edges back into the lead in Newspoll, with Labor, the Greens and One Nation all down on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the Coalition has opened a 51-49 lead in the latest Newspoll, after the previous poll three weeks ago recorded a dead heat. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 43%, with Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 66%, with the disapproval not yet provided; Albanese is down one on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 37%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 56-29, compared with 56-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504. More detail to follow later.

UPDATE: Morrison’s disapproval rating turns out to be up two to 30%. These numbers have been incorporated into the BludgerTrack leadership trends which you can see on the sidebar and in greater detail here. Newspoll has put to respondents the same suite of questions concerning coronavirus in its last three polls, which record soaring confidence in “federal and state governments’ performance” in managing the economic impact (60% satisfied, up 13 points on last time, and 24% dissatisfied, down nine), preparing the health system (up 19 to 78% and down 13 to 15%) and informing Australians about how to protect themselves (up seven to 82% and down seven to 13%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

828 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Cud Chewer @ #741 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 9:53 pm

    guytaur I find this a surprising comment from you.

    “Morrison acted in the National Interest on the pandemic.”

    Morrison has failed badly.

    We should have closed our borders at the earliest opportunity. We were getting cases in late January. Instead, Morrison frettled and fiddled and we closed our borders 6 to 8 weeks too late.

    We should have gone into lockdown (at least in some places) in mid February – after having sealed our borders. Instead we found ourselves going into March knowing there was a pandemic, knowing that lockdown was unavoidable and again Morrison fretted and dithered and said he was going to the footy.

    He was clueless. And worse he relied upon a CMO who couldn’t bring himself to challenge the PM and point out that the virus had already infected many times more people than had been diagnosed.

    So we rolled thorugh mid March with everyone talking about lockdown and Morrison denying reality and pretending that lockdown wans’t inevitable.

    The moment finally came when the Premiers took action and ambushed Morisson. He then had no choice but to hurriedly implement the economic support. He can take credit for a half assed, bodged together economic support package that was thrown together at the last minute, rather than having been planned in detail since the early days of January – when it became clear such a thing was possible.

    No, guytaur, you Prime Minister is a fool. As Turnbull says, he’s not interested in the good of the nation. Just his own personal power. Morrison has form in fucking up every job he’s been in. He lacks the intellectual furniture to do the job. All he has is rat cunning and marketting man’s understanding of the gullibility of the general public.

    Just as well the public see through him…as the polls clearly show.
    I doubt anyone will vote for the Liberal party if Morrison remains leader.
    No one. The Liberal party is toast!
    Toast I tells ya!


  2. mundo says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:00 pm

    ..

    Absolutely. The great thing is nobody is going to vote for them.
    Nobody,

    Unfortunately mundo few people spend much time following politics and the small bandwidth is filled with people like you mouthing shit and the green carrying on with bullshit Green stunts.

    The Liberals may be corrupt bastards but at leas they don’t pretend they have goals other than keeping Labor out of power.

  3. More evidence has been uncovered by Paul Karp of The Guardian that the government behaved, shall we say, inappropriately wrt Sports Grants before the last federal election:

    Scott Hamilton
    @SDHamiltonVIC

    @nic_fri
    and 3 others
    Well actually, Sport Australia did tell Minister McKenzie on 9 Dec 2018 there were problems with what she was doing. See SA’s Robin O’Neill’s EMAIL: ‘you may choose to select those projects and fund them separately via a Ministerial Budget’

  6. Chinese President Xi Jinping has told the World Health Assembly his country supports the idea of a “comprehensive review” into the COVID-19 pandemic after it is “brought under control”.

    The Chinese leader spoke at the virtual session of 194 countries convened by the World Health Organisation (WHO) at the invitation of director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Monday.

    “What we are facing is the most serious global public health emergency since the end of the Second World War,” he said.

    President Xi said the virus “caught the world by surprise” and “I mourn for every life lost and express condolence for the bereaved families.”

    “The disease does not respect borders … nor is race or nationality relevant in the face of the disease.”

    “In China, after making painstaking efforts and enormous sacrifice we have turned the tide on the virus and protected the life and health of our people.”

    He pledged $2 billion in funds over two years to help the global COVID-19 fight and made six proposals of his own, saying “we also need to continue supporting research into source and transmission routes of the virus.”

    “This work should be based on science and professionalism, led by WHO and conducted in objective and impartial manner.”

    The Chinese leader also defended his country’s record on sharing information with the WHO, including the genome sequence of the new virus “in a most timely fashion” and said the country had “done everything in our power to support and assist countries in need.”

    Any vaccine China developed would be available to the world as a public good, he added.

    “This may not be the last time a major health emergency comes knocking at our door. China supports the idea of a comprehensive review … after it is brought under control.”

  7. “ I bet McLure and the witnesses to alleged war crimes won’t be invited to regimental mess dinners at Campbell Barracks.”

    From reports I’ve read most of the witnesses against B R-S are troopers and NCO’s within the regiment who had a gut full of what had happened to the professionalism and traditions of the SASR. …

  9. Cud Chewer
    One thing you have to give the Liberals when it came to One Nation they were ruthless, it took a while for Labor to realize how useless the Greens were and how damaging they would be to Australian politics.

  10. frednk @ #752 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 10:06 pm


    mundo says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:00 pm

    ..

    Absolutely. The great thing is nobody is going to vote for them.
    Nobody,

    Unfortunately mundo few people spend much time following politics and the small bandwidth is filled with people like you mouthing shit and the green carrying on with bullshit Green stunts.

    The Liberals may be corrupt bastards but at leas they don’t pretend they have goals other than keeping Labor out of power.

    ‘The Liberals may be corrupt bastards but at leas they don’t pretend they have goals other than keeping Labor out of power.’
    Probably the only thing which needs to be said.
    Shut PB down.
    Labor is not up to the task of saving it’s own hide.
    The Liberal are hereby declared the winner.
    Turn the lights out.


  15. mundo says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:10 pm
    …
    The Liberal are hereby declared the winner.
    Turn the lights out.

    A devastating thought. An empty treasury and broken people.

  17. frednk

    Just remember that where I fit on the vote compass is closer to the Greens than Labor. I still respect a lot of what the Greens stand for but I also think they made a mistake. At the same time, Rudd made a mistake fully trusting the Liberals and not having a backup plan (he could have done quiet negotiation with the Greens in the background). At the end of the day one can engage in a big political war over this issue but from my point of view, mistakes were made and you should save your nager for the most destructive person in Australian public life – Abbott.

  19. The complaints from Menzies house to the ABC will be in full force tonight.

    It’s a joy to watch a factual debate.

  20. Andrew_Earlwood:

    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:09 pm

    “ I bet McLure and the witnesses to alleged war crimes won’t be invited to regimental mess dinners at Campbell Barracks.”

    Andrew says:

    [‘From reports I’ve read most of the witnesses against B R-S are troopers and NCO’s within the regiment who had a gut full of what had happened to the professionalism and traditions of the SASR. …’]

    I’ve heard on the Vets’ grapevine that Roberts-Smith is intensely disliked. And I see that Porter has to sign off on the prosecution, which goes against the separation of powers doctrine, and which, if he exercises his power to proceed with the prosecution, won’t bode well for him politically. The way I see it is that the brief will collect dust in the bowels of Porter’s office.

  21. frednk

    Mundo isn’t the only one here whose pointed out that the Labor organisation is pathetically out of date, ill equipped and insular. That its far too insular policy wise and doesn’t have a portal through which to engage experts (such as in high speed rail). That it fails to get the fact that in order to create good change it has to reach out to and not just understand but also educate the voters. It has to lead in the sense of argument for basic ideas and facts – even if the media is lazy and partisan.

    In other words, Labor needs to be far more professional and effective in the war on ideas.
    Having said this, I’m hoping that some people will engage their brains in thinking about how this works in pracitce. Mundo keeps sounding like the dog scratching at the door.. which is.. amusing..

  24. frednk

    “The voter compass tells me a should vote Green, but I want outcomes.”

    I have the same problem too. I want the Greens to grow. They no longer get a 1st preference from me, but I’m always going to put them above the lunatics in the LNP.

  25. frednk says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:58 pm
    Bucephalus
    “The base Fraser looked after is not the rabble that is the current base. the base that Menzies look after is not the current rabble that is the current base.”

    Fraser? One of the three worst Liberal PMs ever? The proverbial Drover’s Dog could have beaten Whitlam both times.

    If the base is so terrible it’s strange that they keep winning.

  27. Cud Chewer @ #771 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 10:25 pm

    frednk

    Mundo isn’t the only one here whose pointed out that the Labor organisation is pathetically out of date, ill equipped and insular. That its far too insular policy wise and doesn’t have a portal through which to engage experts (such as in high speed rail). That it fails to get the fact that in order to create good change it has to reach out to and not just understand but also educate the voters. It has to lead in the sense of argument for basic ideas and facts – even if the media is lazy and partisan.

    In other words, Labor needs to be far more professional and effective in the war on ideas.
    Having said this, I’m hoping that some people will engage their brains in thinking about how this works in pracitce. Mundo keeps sounding like the dog scratching at the door.. which is.. amusing..

    Amusing, but eventually you let me in, right?

  29. Bucephalus

    The base is terrible. You won the last election because you had a leader that tipped beer on his head and Clive spent more money that both major parties put together.

    Not something to be proud of.

  30. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:58 pm
    “ the mindless stupidity on display amongst a good section of the Liberal/National Party.

    Otherwise functional human beings who simply can’t understand basic science, physics or engineering.“

    The only problem with your unsubstantiated statement is that many members of the LNP are Engineers and Geologists and other professions and completely understand physics and engineering and a vast array of other areas of knowledge and disagree with you.

    And we keep winning elections.

  33. Cud,
    Did you listen to the podcast that Confessions put up earlier today where Katharine Murphy interviewed Dr Jim Chalmers? Maybe, instead of putting Labor down all day here you, and mundo, could both take the time to listen to it. You may just find that there is someone in federal Labor that is capable of being articulate and expressing the way forward for the Labor Party very well indeed. Despite what the guttersnipes here say about Jim Chalmers. He’s not the only one in the FPLP either.

    Honestly, Cud, you have to get over your snit about not being consulted by Labor about HSR. It’s distorting your perspective way too much.

  34. Strange that President Xi didn’t mention trying to suppress initial reporting and the arrests of doctors and suppression of social media reports etc etc

    I’m sure they’ll be fully transparent. Apparently.

  38. nath

    mundo you are a cruel bully with your homophobic remarks and general nastiness. You made me cry.

    Up with how much more of this shit must we put?

  39. C@t

    Its not only in the area of transport that I have issues with the Labor organisation and policy development

    As for the podcast, I’ve lost the link. Feel free to repost.

  42. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:25 pm

    “ the media is lazy and partisan.”

    And yet every morning there is a comprehensive roundup of the media eviscerating the LNP in print and cartoon.

    You can’t have it both ways.

  45. frednk says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 10:31 pm

    There is no evidence that Palmer’s spending had any impact. He did win one seat. The highest vote he got was a joke.

    What actual evidence from the AEC do you?

  47. That’s it for Mundo for the day.
    Or as he is known by his American Indian name…Sleeps with Three-Cats…(and Mrs Mundo)

  49. President Xi has just announced that he will be supporting the WHO inquiry into the origins of the Coronavirus pandemic.

  50. Of course, if the LNP said nothing publicly about China and the Kung Fu Flu Player One would be apoplectic about us being cowardly to protect our miners and farmers.

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