Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition edges back into the lead in Newspoll, with Labor, the Greens and One Nation all down on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the Coalition has opened a 51-49 lead in the latest Newspoll, after the previous poll three weeks ago recorded a dead heat. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 43%, with Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 66%, with the disapproval not yet provided; Albanese is down one on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 37%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 56-29, compared with 56-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504. More detail to follow later.

UPDATE: Morrison’s disapproval rating turns out to be up two to 30%. These numbers have been incorporated into the BludgerTrack leadership trends which you can see on the sidebar and in greater detail here. Newspoll has put to respondents the same suite of questions concerning coronavirus in its last three polls, which record soaring confidence in “federal and state governments’ performance” in managing the economic impact (60% satisfied, up 13 points on last time, and 24% dissatisfied, down nine), preparing the health system (up 19 to 78% and down 13 to 15%) and informing Australians about how to protect themselves (up seven to 82% and down seven to 13%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

828 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”


  1. Rational Leftist says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:18 pm

    I see tonight’s episode of the Poll Bludger comments is a rerun.

    Of cause, as was four corners for those that are actual interested in environmental outcomes.

  2. mundo: “On February 24, 2011, the government’s press release said:
    The two-year plan for a carbon price mechanism will start with a fixed price period for three to five years before transitioning to an emissions trading scheme..
    Anything else said about the carbon price is bullshit.”

    Including Gillard’s comment that you could call it a tax.

  3. SK
    Backdoor Benny was a lot better nickname than he was called by opposing teams and fans.
    Roy and HG’s other name for him “Crimea War” was much wittier

  4. This is a frightening statistic. It suggests:

    1. A huge number of people are in desperate straits and the economy is in far worse shape than official figures suggest;

    2. Many, many people will be facing retirement in relative poverty;

    3. The superannuation industry and all contributors will suffer in one form or another.

    This must have sounded like a wonderful idea to Frydenberg and Morrison at the time – appear generous by using other peoples’ money.

    More than 1.3 million people seek super relief

    The number of people seeking to raid their retirement nest egg to help them get through the deep economic downturn is climbing.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6760222/more-than-13-million-people-seek-super-relief/?cs=14225

  5. Bucephalus
    Who cares, if the trading scheme was a tax or not, the aim was to encourage a reduction in carbon emissions. The only party that has more to be ashamed of than the Greens are the Liberals.

  6. meher baba @ #696 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 9:23 pm

    mundo: “On February 24, 2011, the government’s press release said:
    The two-year plan for a carbon price mechanism will start with a fixed price period for three to five years before transitioning to an emissions trading scheme..
    Anything else said about the carbon price is bullshit.”

    Including Gillard’s comment that you could call it a tax.

    No question. It was stupid and naive. (see Lizzie’s comment earlier)
    But irrelevant.

  7. Actually the origin of the 1918 flu is still uncertain and likely to remain uncertain. China, Austria, Mexico, UK, Kansas have all been suggested. About the only certainties are that WW1 was a major contribution to spread and severity.

  8. meher baba @ #689 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 7:11 pm

    Confessions: “Bob Brown sounded like a whiny child on 4Corners. He said the reason they voted against the CPRS is because the govt wouldn’t negotiate with them. That’s like something you’d expect from Jacqui Lambie or Pauline Hanson.”

    Well I’m not aware of too many instances in which a government got the Senate crossbenchers to vote for a piece of legislation without making any effort to talk to them about it.

    It’s always been the rules of the game. You can say it oughtn’t to be so, but it is.

    Nah, climate change is supposed to be the Greens signature reason for being in parliament. Yet they couldn’t get off their asses to support the first bill ever going through parliament to enact legislative action on GHGEs. To hear Bob Brown now whining about not being consulted is laughable and just excuse making for their conduct. I bet secretly he regrets not supporting the CPRS a decade ago.

  9. It’s because of coronavirus. No new material. Hollywood is facing the same problem.

    Fair point.

    Oh god, the 10 year anniversary of a certain Australian political event is coming very soon isn’t it. I look forward to retreading that topic again.

  10. And, anyway, the Greens didn’t have the balance of power in the Senate in 2009 except perhaps – in theory – for that very brief moment when a couple of Lib senators crossed the floor. And if the Greens had voted with the Government, those same Libs might not have crossed the floor.

    If the Greens had voted for the CPRS back in 2009 it would’ve passed into law.

  11. davidwh says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:26 pm

    Actually the origin of the 1918 flu is still uncertain and likely to remain uncertain. China, Austria, Mexico, UK, Kansas have all been suggested. About the only certainties are that WW1 was a major contribution to spread and severity.

    Watch the video. All is revealed by the gnome sequence.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:08 pm

    “Learn how to speak respectfully about Labor women!

    Play the ball. Not the woman.”

    Perhaps go back and review all the comments about LNP women on this blog, let alone Hanson, who I’m no political fan of but talk about double standards. You are a joke.

  13. citizen @ #707 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 9:25 pm

    This is a frightening statistic. It suggests:

    1. A huge number of people are in desperate straits and the economy is in far worse shape than official figures suggest;

    2. Many, many people will be facing retirement in relative poverty;

    3. The superannuation industry and all contributors will suffer in one form or another.

    This must have sounded like a wonderful idea to Frydenberg and Morrison at the time – appear generous by using other peoples’ money.

    More than 1.3 million people seek super relief

    The number of people seeking to raid their retirement nest egg to help them get through the deep economic downturn is climbing.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6760222/more-than-13-million-people-seek-super-relief/?cs=14225

    They couldn’t have destroyed the Hawke-Keating legacy any more effectively if they tried. Maybe that was their aim?


  14. mundo says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:31 pm

    Rational Leftist @ #709 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 9:29 pm

    I think we all get it Mundo.

    At last someone says it.

    Free speech. Everyone has the right to say any shit the like, no one has to listen.

  15. frednk says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:25 pm

    “Who cares, if the trading scheme was a tax or not”

    Everyone who was lied to: ie the whole electorate.

    Do you need the quote? There’s a video.

  16. Bucephalus @ #719 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 9:30 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:08 pm

    “Learn how to speak respectfully about Labor women!

    Play the ball. Not the woman.”

    Perhaps go back and review all the comments about LNP women on this blog, let alone Hanson, who I’m no political fan of but talk about double standards. You are a joke.

    A completely context free assertion (how many times do you have to be reminded of the hands-off approach we took to Julie Bishop, except for her arms, I will admit? And straight after the disgusting way that Prime Minister Julia Gillard had been abused by Coalition MPs!), and another put-down of me because I dare to have called out your epithet and asked you to please don’t drag us into that quicksand again.

    Mate, I may be ‘a joke’ but you are just a sad example of today’s Liberal Party.

  17. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #592 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 6:54 pm

    The Greens alone didn’t give the numbers in the Senate, so it was pointless negotiating with them.

    However with a couple of Liberal Senators crossing the Floor, the Greens were in a position to provide the numbers to pass the legislation.

    And there is Labor’s stupidity on display right there, in two short sentences.

  18. Morrison acted in the National Interest on the pandemic.

    I meant in general. You look at the whole system…. how a politician gets to where they are. Be it a PM or a lowly MP. From the decision to go into politics, the ‘training’, the selection process to the environment they find themselves in… how they make decisions on voting or policy formation or what faction they throw their support behind….. wheeling and dealing with lobbyists, the media, backers, donors, think tanks… winning elections, getting a good seat or position on the ballot… job security… setting up the family… not to mention power. And temptation. Money.

    The system doesnt seem well setup to get pollies acting in the national interest on all things all the time.

  19. Steve777 says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:24 pm
    Next month is 10 years since Rudd was rolled. Time flies…
    __________________________________
    The Second Day of Fundamental Injustice …

  20. Barney

    “However with a couple of Liberal Senators crossing the Floor, the Greens were in a position to provide the numbers to pass the legislation.”

    This is something that rarely gets a mention in this whole debate but its worth pointing out what should be bleedingly obvious.

    Had Labor negotiated with the Greens the resulting legislation would probably not attract the support of those Liberal Senators that might have crossed the floor.

  21. “What did Doyle teach ?”
    English/History

    He was just awesome on early afternoons 702 am radio. Clearly knew nothing about astrophysics but was keen to get the astrophysics regular to explain dark matter…. over and over… till it actually made sense.

  22. Bucephalus
    The Liberals and the Greens stuffed up big time, and I have no doubt another decade will be wasted.

    I have little time for Peta Credlin but at least she was honest about the game played.
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/whats-the-point-of-australian-politics

    It is a great pity because the Liberals are destroying an opportunity for little political gain.

    https://www.amazon.com.au/Superpower-Australias-Opportunity-Ross-Garnaut/dp/1760642096/ref=asc_df_1760642096/?tag=googleshopdsk-22&linkCode=df0&hvadid=380648525508&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=11225551316577676728&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1000490&hvtargid=pla-838673115302&psc=1

  23. It’s simple.

    When the Greens were relevant with the balance of power they stepped up to the plate.

    No amount of whining or spin can change the facts.

  24. Confessions: “Had the Greens voted to pass the CPRS a decade ago we would still have carbon pricing today.”

    Really? Why was it more likely to survive than the bill that was passed a couple of years later?

    Abbott would still have become leader and would have run his line against the carbon tax in exactly the same way.

    I think a more accurate portrayal of history would be that, if the CPRS had gone through with bipartisan support, it would possibly still be in place today: but even that is not certain.

  25. Guytaur @8:44 ”Four Corners is making it crystal clear. The Energy policy failure is all the fault of the LNP.”

    Said it in one. We have no climate policy because the big donors / backers / owners of the Coalition parties don’t want one. They want ”business as usual” for as long as it can be sustained – which is probably longer than it makes economic sense even in the short term.

    The Greens were unwise in knocking back Labor’s CPRS thinking that something better would come along in a year or so. The Direct Election Republicans made a similar misjudgement. But they are not to blame.

    Labor misjudged in negotiating with the Coalition Opposition in good faith trusting them to keep their word, when fossil fuel interests were close to closing the deal on their purchase of the Coalition. Labor are not to blame.

    The corrupt and mendacious Coalution parties are to blame.

    Anyway, it’s a decade-old battle that has probably been lost in Austealia. It won’t become a 100-year war.

    I haven’t seen Four Corners yet but I’m recording it.

  26. Wow. The Liberals really are getting down in the gutter to attack Anastacia Palacsjuk.

    Privileged toff and federal MP Andrew Laming, superimposed AP’s face onto a Nazi uniform today and posted it on his facebook page. And has refused to apologise for doing so, even after he was told that Anastacia Palacsjuk’s grandparents were abused in Nazi concentration camps!!

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1261933355307798529

  27. citizen says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:25 pm

    No. It’s not that frightening at all. The percentage of total assets in Superannuation being withdrawn is very small. I’ve been pleasantly surprised.

    The ones who are accessing it are mainly the ones who are low income earners out of the hospitality and tourism industries so mostly young low income earners. They’ll have plenty of time to recover. Many others are low balance holders who on reaching normal conditions of release probably would have immediately emptied their account and been fully reliant on the Age Pension anyway.

    I would be interested on seeing data matching with those already accessing it under the hardship rules that allow access to $10,000 annually anyway.

    I suggest you stop making hyperbolic claims until you have some real meaningful data to analyse.


  28. guytaur says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:42 pm

    It’s simple.



    Yes it is, the Greens are never relevant. They have proved this point in may ways. The charge you can lay at Labor is they are slow learners. I think the gas guzzler convey to North Queensland finally drove the message home.

  29. Really? Why was it more likely to survive than the bill that was passed a couple of years later?

    Because had the CPRS been voted in it is hard to see it being an issue today. As Turnbull said in 4Corners, climate change and carbon pricing would be like the GST is now: simply accepted.

    I’ve also said many times over the years, including back in 2010, that had the CPRS been brought into legislation I doubt very much that Rudd would’ve been rolled. His capitulation on the CPRS seems to be what was his undoing as leader. And good luck to Abbott and the coalition coming anywhere near a hung parliament in 2010 with Rudd as leader.

  30. Cud Chewer,
    I bought the masks online back in Feb as we wanted some more before we went overseas.
    We also made our own during self-isolation on our return from patterns on the web. (Thought our kids and grandkids might be interested, but nah!!)
    I lived in Japan for some time so this gaijin is a firm supporter.

  31. guytaur I find this a surprising comment from you.

    “Morrison acted in the National Interest on the pandemic.”

    Morrison has failed badly.

    We should have closed our borders at the earliest opportunity. We were getting cases in late January. Instead, Morrison frettled and fiddled and we closed our borders 6 to 8 weeks too late.

    We should have gone into lockdown (at least in some places) in mid February – after having sealed our borders. Instead we found ourselves going into March knowing there was a pandemic, knowing that lockdown was unavoidable and again Morrison fretted and dithered and said he was going to the footy.

    He was clueless. And worse he relied upon a CMO who couldn’t bring himself to challenge the PM and point out that the virus had already infected many times more people than had been diagnosed.

    So we rolled thorugh mid March with everyone talking about lockdown and Morrison denying reality and pretending that lockdown wans’t inevitable.

    The moment finally came when the Premiers took action and ambushed Morisson. He then had no choice but to hurriedly implement the economic support. He can take credit for a half assed, bodged together economic support package that was thrown together at the last minute, rather than having been planned in detail since the early days of January – when it became clear such a thing was possible.

    No, guytaur, you Prime Minister is a fool. As Turnbull says, he’s not interested in the good of the nation. Just his own personal power. Morrison has form in fucking up every job he’s been in. He lacks the intellectual furniture to do the job. All he has is rat cunning and marketting man’s understanding of the gullibility of the general public.

  32. frednk says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 9:42 pm

    “It is a great pity because the Liberals are destroying an opportunity for little political gain.“

    Apart from being in Government instead of the ALP and keeping faith with the membership of the LNP. The anger from the party members was white hot when Turnbull was playing footsies with Rudd on the CPRS and Liberal Politicians reported that their office phones and emails were being flooded by outraged party members giving them a roasting. That’s why there was a move against Turnbull. He’d list the base.

  33. Just to add to that guytaur

    Had we closed our borders sooner and instituted lockdowns where needed, we would have seen an order of magnitude fewer cases and we’d have eliminated the virus weeks ago and now we’d be nearly fully functional.

  34. Bucephalus
    The base Fraser looked after is not the rabble that is the current base. the base that Menzies look after is not the current rabble that is the current base.

    The current Liberal party is an utter disgrace no matter how you look at it.

  35. The thing I most missed about that four corners program is that it touched upon, but never explored, the mindless stupidity on display amongst a good section of the Liberal/National Party.

    Otherwise functional human beings who simply can’t understand basic science, physics or engineering. The people who quite genuinely believe that taking action on climate change will send us back to the stone age because.. well because they are willfully ill informed.

    How did these people get to be like this? That would make a lovely show…

  36. frednk @ #745 Monday, May 18th, 2020 – 9:58 pm

    Bucephalus
    The base Fraser looked after is not the rabble that is the current base. the base that Menzies look after is not the current rabble that is the current base.

    The current Liberal party is an utter disgrace no matter how you look at it.

    Absolutely. The great thing is nobody is going to vote for them.
    Nobody,

  37. [‘The Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions has appointed top Sydney barrister David McLure SC to lead efforts to prosecute decorated Afghan veteran Ben Roberts-Smith for alleged war crimes.

    The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald has confirmed Mr McLure, a former legal officer attached to the special forces turned rising star of the Sydney bar, was appointed recently by the CDPP to handle one of the most sensitive cases in its history.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/top-sydney-barrister-to-oversee-war-crimes-probe-against-ben-roberts-smith-20200518-p54u49.html

    I bet McLure and the witnesses to alleged war crimes won’t be invited to regimental mess dinners at Campbell Barracks.

  38. frednk..

    “The base Fraser looked after is not the rabble that is the current base. the base that Menzies look after is not the current rabble that is the current base.”

    Precisely. The base that Tony Abbott sought out are people who are (there’s no polite way to put this) ignorant and angry. They’re not all older. They’re not all white. They’re not all men. But they are unified by the primitve, fearful part of their brain. They are selfish. They don’t understand cooperation. They react emotionally. They cannot comprehend science. The future is a mystery to them.

    And some of these people ended up as LNP members of Parliament.

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