Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings

A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the party leader should be chosen.

With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:

Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.

• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.

• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings”

  1. Is Don Farell the only ALP parliamentarian to own a winery? And $100 bottles too. Fascinating what being a made man in the SDA can bring you.

  2. “ Is Don Farell the only ALP parliamentarian to own a winery? And $100 bottles too. Fascinating what being a made man in the SDA can bring you.”

    Hmmmn. Winery. I’m warming to the man,

  3. Re Newspoll

    – 3 weeks since the last one, might be their new cycle
    – at least one of the suspects close to NewsLtd hinting it might
    – I wasn’t polled off the panel, but that doesn’t mean much

  4. some people and some companies are doing very well out of job keeper. It is blunt largess. It had to be simple and fast. But Now is a good time to re-evaluate. To audit…. To sharpen the system. Or to replace it with something else.

    The ideas need to keep coming. Morrison can’t sit on his laurels.

    The worry is we will get Shock Doctrine. Morrison will bring a suite of policies that the IPA couldn’t even dream about a year ago.

  5. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 9:08 pm

    “ Is Don Farell the only ALP parliamentarian to own a winery? And $100 bottles too. Fascinating what being a made man in the SDA can bring you.”

    Hmmmn. Winery. I’m warming to the man,
    ________
    I’m the last man to begrudge anyone a winery. However it’s a shame that all the SDA members in Coles and Woolworths who got less than award wages for decades have to be the ones that pay for it all.

  6. Surely it has to end nath. From the sad story of Adam McCormick, the trashing of Emma Hussar, the activities of Eddie Obeid etc etc. The whole rotten edifice has to be brought down.

  7. I’m not sure about the wine. I suspect they taste like the tears of a 60 year old woman who has been underpaid for decades. IMHO.

  8. 1. Truth and Justice Commission
    2. Sequestration of assets – compensation to victims
    3. MMP electoral reform

  9. I’m not sure about the wine. I suspect they taste like the tears of a 60 year old woman who has been underpaid for decades.

    …with a hint of cherry. Pairs well with beef.

  10. Lars,

    How would you see MMP operating in Australia?

    Specifically;

    What party vote threshold?
    Would it be first past the post voting or would preferences be retained?
    How would it work with Australia’s federal system?

    Lars Von Trier @ #1312 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 9:24 pm

    1. Truth and Justice Commission
    2. Sequestration of assets – compensation to victims
    3. MMP electoral reform

  11. In many ways OC, it would be this country reclaiming its democratic progressivism from the beginning of the last century.

  12. Oakeshott – you are not, and never were, a Labor man. Thank hitchens your nascent political career failed.

    Now you can fuck off to the Australia Party, Reason, the Australian Democrats, Greens or whatever pop left bourgeoise obscurantist clique floats your boat.

  13. Lars Von Trier @ #1307 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 9:16 pm

    Surely it has to end nath. From the sad story of Adam McCormick, the trashing of Emma Hussar, the activities of Eddie Obeid etc etc. The whole rotten edifice has to be brought down.

    LvT has really been a One Trick Pony on a mission today!

    Aided by his clown sidekick, nath.

    Honestly guys, do you really think that if you dominate conversation here it’s really going to make a difference to the opinion of anyone except those who have already made their minds up to hate Labor as much as you do!?!

    All I can say is that it must take a massive ego to believe that it will.

  14. A_E
    Even though the Beagle Boys made you, you are rapidly becoming yesterday’s man.
    Enjoy Morrison’s largesse

  15. Isle of rocks –

    1) 5% threshold
    2) FPTP for electorates
    3) would be introduced federally – presumably it would flow to the States too (Most likely we will see constitutional reform)

  16. “ AE

    Is OC “getting under your skin”? What a hoot.”

    Yes, he is.

    Hoot away, you feckless wonder and witless servant of our Tory overlords.

  17. What I find amazing Isle of Rocks – we are 20 years behind NZ.

    They realised MMP was the solution after getting rogered by rogernomics. For 2 countries that have often moved in tandem thats been the crucial point of departure between the 2 countries.

  18. “ A_E
    Even though the Beagle Boys made you, you are rapidly becoming yesterday’s man.
    Enjoy Morrison’s largesse”

    Lols. I’m a has-been who never was. Quite happily so.

  19. Has anyone else noticed how the blog has gone careening downhill into the gutter since LvT reappeared, full of their trademark anti-Labor sludge?

  20. C@tmomma
    says:
    Honestly guys, do you really think that if you dominate conversation here it’s really going to make a difference to the opinion of anyone except those who have already made their minds up to hate Labor as much as you do!?!
    ___________________
    We are not trying to dominate conversation. Just having a joke and a whinge and waiting for Newspoll really. We leave dominating the conversation to you. We haven’t had an update on your trip to the shops today.

  21. We do not have a company.
    We do not negatively gear anything.
    We do not have employees.
    We do not have “ambiguous assets” – we barely have even one “asset”, which is our home.
    We do not have “tax effective expense arrangements”.

    If you don’t have employees, then how can you justify applying for inclusion in the Job Keeper program?

    If you run a B&B, then why shouldn’t you negatively gear expenses? Unless you’re not disclosing the income either maybe.

    You have no assets yet are forced to submit (your words) 14 separate documents to justify a dole claim.

    Obviously you or your spouse have a few questions to answer. At least Centrelink thinks so. That’s why they knocked you back, presumably.

  22. Oh, pony. In an imaginary universe where every every daddy’s princess owned a unicorn and flew to school on a winged horsey your bourgeois prejudices would be rewarded with actual progress.

    In our universe you are repelled by the slice of humanity that is actually needed to actually take the progressive plurality into a majority. That slice of humanity is equally repelled by you and your ilk. Morrison and all the other pirates thank you for every single ‘Labor bad’ trope, or worse ‘we will hold Labor to account if they are elected to government’ stunt you sign on to. Chapeau. No progress for generations. While you are feel’n all righteous the planet burns. How good is that.

  23. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/17/politics/state-polls-2020-analysis/

    Poll of the week: A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 46% to 43% lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin.

    The poll matches the last poll from Marquette, which also had Biden up by 3 points in Wisconsin.
    What’s the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether or not they’re an accurate representation of what is going on at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is to compare state poll results to the past presidential vote in a given state. I did so for all telephone polls that called cell phones since the beginning of April.
    When we average out these state polls, they suggest that Biden’s running about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s final margin.

    In other words, the state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points.

  24. Bushfire Bill @ #1339 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:02 pm

    If you don’t have employees, then how can you justify applying for inclusion in the Job Keeper program?

    Sole traders are eligible*. As are directors, shareholders, and partners in a company with no employees as long as they do something business-related for the company.

    People in these categories are as justified in applying as anyone else.

    *Subject to the standard caveat of needing to demonstrate a 30% drop in turnover.

    If you run a B&B, then why shouldn’t you negatively gear expenses?

    Deducting expenses and negatively gearing are separate concerns. You’re only negatively geared if your claimed expenses exceed the income from the source you’re claiming the expenses against.

  25. What brain cells there are in the family tree certainly didn’t fall when this cretin came along.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/17/eric-trump-coronavirus/

    What’s the bet that Netanyahu finds some way to sabotage this arrangement because he just can’t stand the idea of power sharing.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/after-three-elections-and-political-deadlock-israel-finally-swears-in-new-government/2020/05/17/ba25e752-9807-11ea-87a3-22d324235636_story.html

  26. dan Andrews ignores Smith and announces:

    ABC Melbourne
    @abcmelbourne
    ·
    4m
    Premier
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    has just announced a 2.7 billion construction stimulus package for roads, rail and schools.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *