Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings

A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the party leader should be chosen.

With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:

Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.

• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.

• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings”

  1. Oakeshott Country
    says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 7:40 pm
    A_E
    A barrister is getting Jobkeeper- really? What has happened to noblesse oblige?
    The government has gone mad
    _______________________
    Indeed. I hear sex workers cant even get it……..not sure where I heard that……

  2. I’ve no idea who this Tim Smith bloke is, but he’s like something from Young Liberal central casting. And fyi Tim, today you can’t sit down for a coffee in WA either.

  3. As I said in my first sentence, all of the information that Centrelink holds on your assets, and everything else, is listed on your record, directly accessible through MyGov, and previously through Centrelink’s own site. They pulled an ancient company thing on my Pensioner ‘client’, and my printing out the ‘deregistered’ record from ASIC, and a run-in with a desk jockey at the local Centrelink office, escalated to the office Manager, had the record corrected in real time, in front of me.

  4. Bushfire Bill @ #1247 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 7:29 pm

    Stop squealing about persecution and Centrelink trying to “break you”, and find out what’s the problem. Go in personally, join the queue where everyone can see you (like everybody else has to) and quit thinking you’re special.

    You are unbelievable. Leave aside for the moment that we live remotely – are you completely unaware that Centrelink is actively discouraging personal visits at the moment?

    Where have you been for the past 4 months? Have you actually heard of Covid-19?

  5. I draw on the work of Gough Whitlam. Who said his father was a Crown Solicitor while at the time most sex workers were half a crown (25 cents) solicitors

  6. nath says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 8:03 pm
    though I suspect a lot of this verbiage is the result of impotence. Sadly.
    _________________________________________
    I suspect the issues with many of the angrier posters here are ultimately of that or a similar character. It does explain many things.

  7. Barristers can screw you, financially that is.

    And speaking of Tim Smith MP, the rising star of Victorian Liberals – what did he do after Melbourne Uni? Firstly a shill, then a staffer – now combining the learnings

    Senior Consultant (Office of the Chief Executive Officer), PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC);
    Consultant (Strategy and Operations) Deloitte;
    Mayor and Councillor, City of Stonnington;
    Assistant Adviser to The Hon. Bruce Billson MP;
    Assistant Adviser to The Hon. Malcolm Turnbull MP, Leader of the Opposition;
    Electorate Officer for The Hon. Michael O’Brien MLA, Shadow Minister for Gaming and Consumer Affairs;
    Researcher for The Rt Hon David Davis MP, Shadow Home Secretary (UK).

  8. SK re your concerns about reconciling a 6.2% jobless rate with 600,000 jobs lost, I agree on face value the numbers don’t stack up.

    The lower participation rate would account for between 350,000 and 400,000 people dropping out of the calculation, however there does seem to be an apparent discrepancy of around 1%,

    Perhaps it’s timing?

  9. “Instead, a new Social Democrat Party will have to be founded. It will have to consist of most of the current Greens and the ALP, but with the dark elements like the SDA and the Shortcons etc are excised. I’m not sure it will be possible to accomplish. Victoria must lead the way though.”

    Can’t see the SDA going anywhere. And most of the ALP left detest the Greens and vice versa. But regardless, assume this new party is formed. What, exactly is its path to victory in Australia’s electoral system? How will it win any seats at all outside of Melbourne and inner city Sydney.? How would it resolve the core tension between Green ideology and economic growth (read worker’s prospects and employment)?

  10. Well Sprocket – there you go again the relativity argument, ie you think Labor’s bad, the Liberals are just as bad or worse…

    The problem is the 2 party duopoly of which Labor is but one limb.

  11. Tim Smith looks like foreman material to me. He agrees.

    “In a political scene mostly static since Andrews’ electoral rout of the Coalition 18 months ago, Smith’s colourful invective has sparked leadership speculation that Michael O’Brien could have lived without as he tried to launch policies this week for the post-COVID-19 economic recovery.

    O’Brien, who cannot conduct a press conference without being asked about his colleague from Kew, lost patience with Smith a week ago after the Liberal planning spokesman went on national breakfast TV, without clearing the appearance with his leader, and called Andrews a “loony”.

    Despite instructions from O’Brien to tone it down, Smith was back on Twitter the next night with a fresh choice of words for Andrews – a “schmuck” – and another stream of invective.

    The Victorian Liberal Party is buzzing with theories on just what Smith is up to.

    But he told The Age on Friday that there was nothing out of the ordinary going on.

    “All I am doing is my job, which is to ask questions of the government and to raise issues the public is raising with me,” Smith said.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/it-s-my-job-to-get-attention-meet-the-ambitious-member-for-kew-20200515-p54th6.html

  12. Historyintime says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 8:21 pm
    “Instead, a new Social Democrat Party will have to be founded. It will have to consist of most of the current Greens and the ALP, but with the dark elements like the SDA and the Shortcons etc are excised. I’m not sure it will be possible to accomplish. Victoria must lead the way though.”

    Can’t see the SDA going anywhere. And most of the ALP left detest the Greens and vice versa. But regardless, assume this new party is formed. What, exactly is its path to victory in Australia’s electoral system? How will it win any seats at all outside of Melbourne and inner city Sydney.? How would it resolve the core tension between Green ideology and economic growth (read worker’s prospects and employment)?
    -_______________
    Easy introduce MMP

  13. Well that didn’t take long. Went to my local Coles, a large store in inner city Brisbane. No distancing, no additional guards and every single self service checkout open again. Completely business as usual.

    Yeah, the social distancing rules are mere formality at mine now. Every second self-serve is still closed and the markers are still on the floor but, other than that, it’s all back to normal – other than purchase limitations (which really aren’t an inconvenience anyway.)

  14. “davidwh says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 8:13 pm
    Jobkeeper is definitely paid to an employer at $1,500 per fortnight per employee subject to qualifications.”

    If the employee earns more than $1,500 p.f. they receive their normal pay. If the employee earns less, the employer must pay them $1,500 p.f.

    I can see how this could lead to some bad feeling in the workplace. JobKeeper could have been designed so that the wage subsidy for someone earning less than $1,500 p.f. was capped at that amount.

  15. And who is this Michael O’Brien? Never heard of him.

    What happens to Matthew Guy? Too many lobster lunches with gangsters?

  16. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 8:25 pm
    And who is this Michael O’Brien? Never heard of him.

    What happens to Matthew Guy? Too many lobster lunches with gangsters?
    ________________________________
    Whatever happened to that Bill Shorten guy? He was going to be the next Prime Minister wasn’t he?

  17. Hard to believe Victoria was once the so-called jewel in the crown for the Liberal party when you see some of their MPs at both state and federal level!

  18. I reckon Lars and nath should be taking some tips on how to troll from Tim Smith MP – on fire today..

    “More recently, Smith took to Twitter today to ask the internet’s “preferred label” for Andrews, with the options including “Chairman Dan” and “Dictator Dan,” asserting that the Premier’s actions during the coronavirus pandemic makes him some sort of tyrant.

    In unsurprising news, Smith’s replies were almost instantly flooded with people calling him a “massive f-wit” and “an absolute douche-nozzle of epic proportions.” So here’s hoping he can take the name calling as well as he can dish it.

    The MP has also dished sick burns like “control freak wowser”, “Dictator Dan”, “schmuck” and even going so far as to call Andrews a “fear mongering doomsday propagandist.”

    Heck, he’s even been counselled by State Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien because apparently it’s not appropriate to call the Premier a “loony” during a breakfast television interview. Who knew?”

    https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/tim-smith-dan-andrews/

  19. Here’s Tim Smith on the left with 3 other pollies who went to 30k a year elite private schools. #diversity. #taxpayerpaidholidaystoIsrael

  20. sprocket_
    says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 8:36 pm
    nath, Israel sponsors the trips
    ____________
    OK. still, nice get though.

  21. Hey Bob Sprocket – don’t forget the age too!

    Only 4 out of 22 members of the Labor Shadow Cabinet will be under 50 by the time of the next Federal election and none will be under 45.

    Time for a clean out?

  22. “ I always know I am on the right track when you appear to bloviate, rant, rave, spit and froth in my general direction.

    I am always happy to provide you with an excuse, no matter how small, to don your metaphorical steel-capped boots. A bully, wannabe head-kicker and coward always needs a punching bag when he is filled with angst and distemper.

    You’re welcome.”

    ____

    Let me guess. You are “having a hoot”, as you like to say whenever someone really gets under your skin. Rather than ranting and raving I simply smashed you like a guitar with your Asinine wunderwaffe on JobKeeper. In less than ten words. All you could do is cut and paste a link that you lacked the brain cells to even comprehend.

    As for why a barrister would apply, since going back to the private bar nearly 2 years ago, I’ve joined a criminal set. Rates for criminal law barristers haven’t moved for 13 years, and barely for 25 years. Whilst I’ve been fully engaged ‘in harness’ as a toiling hack, I haven’t yet rebuilt my network of solicitors that will provide a steady flow of lucrative private paying work. The upshot is that I’ve been living off legal aid briefs and whatever various prosecuting agencies will pay – which is next to fuck all (worse, with no cancellation fees to cover the 50/50 proposition that the case will fall over just before it stars, or be vacated because there ain’t enough judges to hear all the trials listed). Anyhoo, while I make enough to rub by, but it’s not exactly a case of endless riches at the criminal bar. Not by a long shot.

    So, when covid19 took away 95% of my trial practice for April through to October – just like that, I had no problem with applying for JobKeeper. As an individual – sole trader.

    Moreover, about 75% of the barristers on my floor (which is one of the top 3 criminal law floors at the Sydney bar) are in the same boat. The floor has a service company which employs 4 staff and pays the rent on our space. With nearly all of the floor taking a hit of at least 75%, we needed to work out how we keep paying wages and rent. The floor’s service company can only qualify for JobKeeper for our staff and a rental abatement with the landlord if we can show that it is in a ‘supply chain’ that has had its turn over cut by more than 30%. We have been advised that the individual barristers need to apply for JobKeeper to justify the decision the floor has taken to cut floor fees by 55% for the next 3-6 months and hence qualify for JobKeeper for our staff and to get a rental abatement off our landlord.

    I hope this is informative to the less thick headed and shitful of bludgers.

  23. Tim Smith wearing his AIS Rowing shirt in that Jerusalem shot – Rowing is such a private school sport, and it seems Timmy excelled at that as much as he is excelling in trolling..

    “Smith was selected to row for Victoria for the youth eights team at the Australian Rowing Championships in 2002-3.[3][4]. He was selected for the Victorian lightweight four to contest the Penrith Cup at the Interstate Regatta 2002-04. He placed second in 2002.[5][6]

    Smith made his Australian representative debut in 2003 at the World Rowing Cup III in Lucerne in a lightweight quad scull. That quad went on to the 2003 U23 World Rowing Championships in Belgrade where they placed fourth.[7].

    In 2004 he moved into the Australian senior squad in the lightweight eight. That boat rowed to bronze medal at the 2004 World Rowing Championships in Banyoles, Spain.[7] At the 2005 World Rowing Championships in Gifu, Japan he competed in the lightweight coxless four.[7] At the 2006 World Rowing Championships at Eton, Dorney he competed in the lightweight coxless pair and finished in fourth place.

    He sustained a significant back injury in the lead up to the 2006 World Championships. Smith retired due to this injury.[7]

  24. Sorry Bob Sprocket, I should have said only Dr Jim Chalmers would be under 45 at the next election.

    Haven’t they heard of succession planning in the modern ALP?

  25. Appalling. This government is giving welfare to people who have already sucked on the public teat to enter a profession.
    I support Labor because it enabled me to become a professional despite spending my first 17 years in public housing. It put me on my feet so that I would never again need direct public support and could put back through my taxes.
    To give barristers welfare is a perversion of our society

  26. AE

    lol Your arrogance and ego is showing as it always does. If you need to believe so badly “You get under my skin”, who am I to dissuade you otherwise. Take joy in an empty victory, one that is imaginary and only in your own mind.

    You re welcome.

  27. “ Haven’t they heard of succession planning in the modern ALP?”

    Labor is damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t.

    On the one hand, we have the bleating of pegarex about ‘party democracy’, but on the other hand, criticism for the very undemocratic process of ‘succession planning.

    The usual suspects can all go and get fucked. Want a mainstream political party – or three – to criticise, how about the Libs, Nat’s, LNP, CLP or the Greens. All worthy candidates before one gets to the internal failings of the ALP.

  28. Talking about Labor with a corrupt dishonest secretive LNP Federal Morrison led government bugggering up a response to the the economic effects of Covid 19 and totally confused about what to do next !
    Shorten remains intact as Morrison and his mob melt in the heat of governing.
    Shorten remains the luckiest politician at any level and will be contributing long after Morrison has bolted with the cash desperately seeking relevance.

  29. Lars, the Liberal Minister for Youth is Senator Richard Colbeck – he’s 62!

    And where is this ageist rant coming from? Tim Smith is 36 – would you want a cabinet full of twerps like him?

  30. “NSW is apparently going for social distancing on public transport. ”

    So they’re taking the option of keeping people out of the Sydney CBD. Good 🙂

  31. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 8:54 pm
    Lars, the Liberal Minister for Youth is Senator Richard Colbeck – he’s 62!

    And where is this ageist rant coming from? Tim Smith is 36 – would you want a cabinet full of twerps like him?
    ______________________
    And Don Farrell is 66 yrs old.

  32. I don’t think the “progressive” contrarians on here should bellow too loudly about people being too old, considering they recently supported a 78-year-old to be POTUS and a 70-year-old to be UKPM.

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