With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.
• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.
• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.
Boerwar
I understand the cognitive dissonance it must create within you to be as one with the Greens on the NT marine base, spy bases and the JSF contract.
meher baba
Excellent. He’s taking it seriously.
BOB LYNCH @ #379 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 3:09 pm
The problem here is that backpackers, like may of the international students, arrive with limited funds knowing they can work to support their living costs and facilitate future travels.
With the students, the ones I know from Vietnam, they would only be able to cover the tuition fees and air fares, normally with much family support, and then use their working rights to cover living expenses.
‘Pegasus says:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 5:30 pm
Boerwar
I understand the cognitive dissonance it must create within you to be as one with the Greens on the NT marine base, spy bases and the JSF contract.’
You understand nothing.
The Greens defence policy is to lie back and spread their international legs.
The Indian navy could usefully be deployed to repatriate Indian nationals in Australia.
It is several times the size of the Australian navy.
Buce….for the very little it’s worth, I’ve paid no attention whatsoever to the Biloela family. I have no knowledge of their claims or the claims made about them.
Why did you try to affiliate Clooney with terrorism? It’s a useless polemical device….cheap and demeaning
Ok. I can accept that you are wrong.
Let me paint you a picture:
Thousands of students come to this country to live for a while and get some form of educational qualification, and return home. (Those using education to pursue Australian citizenship are a different kettle of fish that are not relevant to the point I’m making here.)
These people necessarily form part of the educated elite in their respective countries, and quite a few of them will go on to be leaders of business and government down the track. These people, when in positions of power, have many opportunities to swing decisions one way or another, and when thinking of decisions with respect to Australia or Australian business or whatever their lived experience for good or ill (and how they relate that experience to their colleagues) will be a strong influence.
Our success at tertiary education export is actually a soft power generating engine for us. And we’ve managed to scam it that the relevant countries/families pay us for the privilege of getting to influence their upwardly mobile youngsters.
That’s a great scam, and it’s one we’ve taken for granted for way too long.
So, in the scheme of things, this beautiful scam that we have going that is probably one of our best mechanisms for improving our future standing and influence in the world is worth looking out for and nurturing.
So, there are specific hard economic reasons to go the extra mile for the students immediately affected here – being hard nosed and mean now will affect the future profitability of this sector. But there are also – in my opinion much more significant – long term soft power benefits from doing more than we are. The difference between those students who struggle now in the face of seeming indifference from our government and remember this down the track vs being shown modest temporary generosity now and fostering good will towards us, and the resultant boost to global influence, for decades down the track.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_power
meher baba @ #388 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 3:16 pm
The cost of living in India doesn’t bare comparison to Australia.
Your attempt to suggest there is some sort of equivalence is contemptible.
Turns out eating at McDonalds really is bad for your health.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/05/15/melbourne-mcdonalds-virus/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020200515
There is differently a risk of reputational damage for how the international students and non-citizen population has been treated but this government seems unable to see that risk.
Council elections to proceed amid storm of protest
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/council-elections-to-proceed-amid-storm-of-protest-20200515-p54tgc.html
Local council elections will proceed in October despite protests that doing so would set back women’s representation and give incumbents an unfair advantage.
But there will be no voting in person at the elections, with the state government deciding that all ballots will be held via postal vote for the first time.
:::
The decision to hold council elections on October 24 as originally scheduled comes as Labor prepares to reclaim influence at local government level after ceding that ground to the Greens in recent years.
Local government expert and campaigner for women on councils, Ruth McGowan, said holding elections this year favoured incumbent councillors, with men already holding the majority of seats.
:::
She said some female councillors were planning to vacate their seats rather than re-contest the election – further depleting women’s representation.
:::
The Municipal Association of Victoria also urged the state government to postpone the elections.
:::
The Labor Party will seek to seize back territory from the Greens on councils in a major strategic shift, after retreating from formally endorsing local government candidates years ago.
It has already moved to endorse candidates in councils such as Moreland as it focuses on the inner north.
One Labor figure said the party was seeking to reclaim the community level of government.
“It’s really about just trying to make sure the Labor Party brand rebuilds itself at a grassroots level,” the figure said.
But Melbourne Greens councillor Rohan Leppert said the government’s decision to move from multi-member to single councillor wards was intended to favour the larger parties.
“Multi-member wards are better for diversity. They get more women elected than single-member wards,” he said.
————
The Andrews government – so very democratic. Another iteration of its refusal to abolish upper house group tickets. Whatever it takes to destroy the Greens at the ballot box, in lock step with the Liberals and the Murdoch media.
Baba
There is a Yes Minister episode about soft power.
A coup leader becomes President of a country. Turns out he went to School with the Minister.
meher baba @ #393 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 5:22 pm
Oh, meher baba, sometimes you make a very poor apologist for the Morrison government. This is one of those times.
For a start, you try and make the case that, ‘Quite a few overseas medical professionals and researchers were convinced at one point about a connection between MMR vaccines and autism in children’. No, it was one study by one medical professional, who hoodwinked a few of his peers until such time as his experiments were peer-reviewed and found to be bogus. Ergo, that particular example doesn’t make for much of a solid foundation to build a case to defend Murphy on.
I was sitting there listening to him prepared to give him a fair hearing. I couldn’t believe the words that came out of his mouth. He doesn’t deserve to be apologised for. These are children’s lives and well-being we are talking about here. And he seems ignorant of the facts when it comes to how they are being affected, in some instances, by COVID-19. It’s just mind-boggling.
However, if you wish to keep making excuses for him, that’s your choice.
BW
And you believe you understand and know everything.
“The Official Visit”:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0751822/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3gtmbk5qfs
Well the whole of the world will learn that on the whole Australian taxpayers are arseholes, not as bad as those who get investment incentives for being rich (ie dividend imputation cashouts) but still throughly unpleasant people.
One day China will blow us back to the stone age, like we blew Iraq back to the stone age, the difference will be we will probably deserve it, Iraq most certainly did not.
C@t
“Well I am aghast and agog, and I am also gobsmacked. I have just seen Professor Brendan Murphy, Commonwealth Chief Health Officer, say that he is unsure about the link between COVID-19 and the severe inflammatory condition that some children are experiencing!”
Not at all surprising. I’ve been saying all along that Brendan is fatally compromised. Not just because he’s in the employ of Scumo, but also because he’s affiliated with the Company Director’s association.
Several of my friends have emailed me on this issue and let me tell you, their language makes me look mild.
The stage 3 “breakers” today certainly were – a trial run for the start of the ski season in a couple of weeks.
Does anyone else find this comment of BW’s distasteful to say the least?
Peg
There are two ways you could play that.
1. it is a shockingly inappropriate comment
2. If the Greens was a lady then she would be well above your league and would be far too sophisticated to notice
😉
Socrates
Its worth me reposting this link: Its written by an expert on infectious disease.
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
Short version. The virus doesn’t just land at your feet. It can spread across a room.
Take home message 1: Don’t spend any length of time in an enclosed space.
Take home message 2: Trains are dangerous.
I notice also that today Gladys was pleading for people to avoid trains. You might love this too.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/limits-on-train-commuters-more-cbd-parking-and-bike-lanes-as-sydney-returns-to-work-20200514-p54t1b.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true
Totally fucking clueless! You know as well as I do that this is simply impossible. As I’ve said before we basically have 4 alternatives.
1. Eliminate the virus. Problem solved
2. Have a crippled economy where CBDs are only partially functional.
3. See the virus go out of control.
4. Test (almost) everyone (which if you think about its option 1 only done too late).
Can you really picture Scotty from Marketing and the rest of the LNP upsetting The Dunce in America by cancelling the F-35 contract? Lockheed Martin would go squealing to him and he would get angry and make brain fart threats to us about how horrible we are and Scotty would cave in so fast that it would make Ludicrous Speed look like standing still.
Time to go and watch one of my favourite episodes from the Yes, Minister and Yes, Prime Minister series, “The Key.”
mexican
Very good!
***
OTOH if I am not allowed to be offended at others, such as nath, I feel no compulsion to react to boerwar.
And of course having more cars in the Sydney CBD is directly in conflict with having more pedestrian space which is also vital for health reasons.
Kronomex
I wonder what an incoming Democrat administration might have to say about the money being wasted on the F35 in that country, given their likely economic situation.
The truly disgusting thing is that the Greens are planning to employ soldiers to defend Australia by way of a Light Mobile Force.
Light Mobile Forces have been slaughtered every single time they have come up against the real thing.
Sending Australian troops to the slaughter is disgusting.
The Greens equivalents in the Interwar years spent a couple of decades gutting the militaries of the democracies, giving such luminaries as Hitler, Tojo, Stalin and Mussolini an excellent run.
That, and your douchebag comment.
Of course, if one were to substitute Labor for Greens in BW’s comment and, if the comment had been posted by a Greens there would be no blowback whatsoever, would there.
I apologize to everyone for what can only reasonably be described as a douchebag comment.
International legs….I know a well traveled beautiful woman who has unknowingly acquired a new nickname. The rest of BW’s comment reeks of misogyny.
Cud,
Joe Biden is in your corner:
Joe Biden
@JoeBiden
We are months into this crisis. There is simply no excuse for President Trump’s failure to implement a national testing strategy.
🙂
good god, Jakol, you paint a good picture. -regards, a.v.
Btw what’s the story with Trump’s taxes today?
Investment of $80,000,000,000 into establishing new manufacturing and infrastructure would be far more beneficial to Australian society than on submarines that will do a few exercises every now and then.
boerwar @ #429 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 6:04 pm
You showed weakness of character and argument with that comment.
CC
[Several of my friends have emailed me on this issue and let me tell you, their language makes me look mild.]
You think this counts, do you?
Here’s another article on the futility of restarting an economy whilst the virus is at large.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-15/eight-new-coronavirus-infections-recorded-in-nsw/12248890
constructive as always shellbell…
Rex, I think most of us agree with you on this. I certainly do.
Now, can you please give it a rest here, and take it up over at Menzies House?
No, not BW, the submarines.
There is some question as to whether the $48m now promised for mental health programs includes the $42m promised at the election and is not new money as a result of Covid.
I’m sure the MSM are working on it.
Cud:’Not at all surprising. I’ve been saying all along that Brendan is fatally compromised. Not just because he’s in the employ of Scumo, but also because he’s affiliated with the Company Director’s association.’
I have tried to find information about this, but couldn’t find any.
Its also interesting that Gladys says that public transport is already at capacity, once social distancing is taken into account. According to the info I’ve seen, public transport is now at about 20-22 percent of “normal”. So are we
A: Going to see crowd control for public transport forcing people into insane queues – with predictable pushback?
B: Going to see people crowd onto trains waiting for the super spread to join them?
This is what I mean about the government (yes Federal and State) being dishonest. They’ve sold the message that you can reopen the economy safely, but there’s plenty of reason to believe that this isn’t the case. That they are acting on blind faith and essentially winging it.
PeeBee
https://www.health.gov.au/about-us/who-we-are/leadership
lizzie @ #441 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 6:16 pm
A large chunk of it, is for marketing and ads. Can you believe that!?!
Some are doing ok, thank you C19!
“Amazon founder and world’s richest person Jeff Bezos is on track to becoming the first trillionaire, as the coronavirus pandemic supercharges his ecommerce empire.
Bezos, who has an estimated net worth of US$143.9 billion (AU$222.62 billion), will become a trillionaire by 2026, should his wealth continue to grow at its current rate of 34 per cent a year, analysis from Comparisun revealed.
Bezos’ wealth has been rocketing higher at this rate for the last five years.
That’s despite paying out US$38 billion in the largest divorce settlement in history last year, and before considering how coronavirus has sent the Amazon share price soaring 29 per cent in 2020.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/jeff-bezos-to-become-worlds-first-trillionaire-011354721.html
Cud Chewer @ #437 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 6:12 pm
Is it a failure of ‘duty of care’ by the Govt if someone on PT contracts the plague …?
Class action …?
How on earth did this happen? People need to go to prison.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-15/police-investigate-death-of-chairbound-woman-in-adelaide/12253326
C@t
What odds they will look to or have been using big ad spends as a means to look after and keep sweet the Rupe’s and Stoke’s of the world ?
CC: “1. Eliminate the virus. Problem solved”
It rolls off the tongue so easily, doesn’t it?
A few weeks ago, Victoria was the one state in Australia attracting praise from the “eliminationists” like Norman Swan for having committed itself to a goal of elimination. How’s that going? I’d say they are many weeks, if not months, away from achieving 14 days with zero cases. It’s possible that they’ll never get there.
But, guess what, Andrews is announcing plans to open up the economy anyway. Because he knows that his government cannot possibly afford the cost of holding things down any longer. And, most likely, the people of his state won’t tolerate the lockdown for too much more time and will start ignoring it.
And, yes, he could order the police to run around slapping $1500 fines on everyone and arresting those who kick up too much of a stink. But this would be in relation to an illness that Victorians currently have around a 1 in 100,000 chance of contracting in a given week. I don’t think Victorian public would stand for it.
Perhaps the right thing to do is to hold everything down for months to come. But I’m afraid that simply isn’t going to happen. It’s not even going to happen in countries that will never get anywhere near as close to elimination as we apparently have.
And who knows, the virus might be more widespread in the community than anyone knows so that we can never get rid of it entirely and it might eventually kill most of the vulnerable people who we are currently trying to protect (including me, I’m sorry to say).
Public health officials are facing a range of really difficult choices in trying to work out what the best thing to do is. It’s easy for those who don’t have such a responsibility to be critical of them. “Why don’t you just eliminate it?”
You might just as well tell the police “why don’t you arrest all the men committing domestic violence and put them in gaol?” Or the road safety experts “why don’t you just design the roads so there can’t be any car accidents?”