Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings

A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the party leader should be chosen.

With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:

Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.

• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.

• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings”

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  1. There are no longer any known, active cases of coronavirus in South Australia, health authorities have said.

    SA Health said the last remaining patient has recovered, and there have been no new cases in more than a week.

    Just keep the fithy infected eastern staters away from us thanks.

  2. Mexican

    That means the government would have to include funding increases for universities.

    The point is. The students don’t deserve to starve. The fact they are begging for food means systemic failure and a lack of empathy.


  3. Bucephalus says:
    Friday, May 15, 2020 at 3:55 pm

    I haven’t seen him doing that.

    ….

    We should just shut up, do nothing, say nothing that might upset them?

    Pick your horse you can’t have it both ways.

  4. Australia Post is seriously failing us (well, failing me). A letter incorrectly addressed to my street address instead of POBox took 10 days to return to sender. Sender then redirected it to me four days ago, but still not arrived. Both of us live in Outer Melbourne.

    It matters to me because the letter will contain a prescription to assist with current pain relief. Makes me unhappy, obviously.

  5. Guytaur
    Our universities are wealthy organisations that can afford to reimburse the students that they lobbied Canberra to let into the country when it was clear the borders needed to be closed. The universities placed self interest ahead of student welfare and so deserve to take the hair cut because they can afford it. I know my university has substantial financial resources and benefits greatly from international students so in this short term crisis it can dip into its pocket.

  6. Australia Post is seriously failing us

    Yeah I had a package from Amazon US, that went Florida, Georgia, South Korea, Singapore, Perth in just under two weeks.

    A simple Sydney Perth Aus post package took closer to three.

    Even before covid it always is disappointing to see Australia post as the delivery agent when you buy something online. I bought something online yesterday, and sadly it was Aus post, so I guess I’ll get it in July, I should have ordered something from mars, it would get here sooner.

  7. Further to the previous comment. My university and i am sure others are seeking financial support among their student alumni.

  8. The Australian appoints Michelle Gunn as first female editor in newspaper’s 56-year history
    Gunn, who will remain as editor of the Weekend Australian, began her career as a cadet journalist at the News Corp title

  9. meher babasays:
    Friday, May 15, 2020 at 4:00 pm

    The Australian Government should work with the Indians to get their citizens home.

    Imagine of our Government shut out Citizens or Residents. There’s enough yelling when we try to manage controlled entry for non-citizens.

  10. guytaur: “They are human beings. Looking after them is not only right thing to do but is also helping to contribute to soft power diplomacy. Where the bloody hell is the empathy?”

    If they are able to go home then why on earth should we pay them to stay here? University instruction is currently being undertaken online, via Skype and whatever. Maybe some of them reckon that they would have a better time here than at home, but why is it up to the Australian taxpayer to finance that choice?

    Taxpayers will be paying off the enormous deficit run up on Jobkeeper and Jobseeker allowances for many years to come. Why add to that deficit with expenditure that is totally unnecessary, and which doesn’t do anything to benefit taxpayers?

    I don’t get the arguments about soft diplomacy, etc. I don’t think the countries from which these students have come are expecting us to support them: except perhaps, as I have said, those who are genuinely unable to get back home. And we should definitely support them IMO.

  11. Mexican

    It’s systemic failure. You are showing your lack of empathy.
    Universities are begging for money. That’s why they import fee paying international students.

    No matter how you try and dress it up. Our society has failed when people are begging for food.

  12. Bucephalus
    There has been cases where Australia has dragged the chain on Australians oversea with cases in the U.K and South America.

  13. Baba

    Yeah find ways to blame the students when they are begging for food.

    It’s irrelevant why they are here. The point is they are starving in Australia.

  14. Our universities are wealthy organisations that can afford to

    They might well be, but that really isn’t the important question. They are being rundown, and being treated more like a McDonald’s franchise than institutions of learning and research. Where once it was all about academic merit now it is all about your parents wallet. We are dumber and poorer for it.

  15. Guytaur
    Its not a lack of empathy and just because someone or some group wants funding doesn’t mean they don’t have money and when it comes to the universities they are not on struggle street.

  16. WeWantPaul says:
    They might well be, but that really isn’t the important question. They are being rundown, and being treated more like a McDonald’s franchise than institutions of learning and research. Where once it was all about academic merit now it is all about your parents wallet. We are dumber and poorer for it.
    ———————————–
    That is a separate debate that i would agree with and would say needs to be addressed although the Gillard Government did make attending university easier for lower income earners which i rate as one of those unrated policy achievements of that government.

  17. Guytaur
    What part of it don’t you get

    Students should be reimbursed fees which would put money on that student’s pocket
    Rent holiday so they don’t need to pay rent
    Speed up immigration process to allow access to other packages

    Sounds like a plan to put money in these students pockets.

  18. I don’t get the arguments about soft diplomacy

    Then you’re being particularly dense today.

    There is no question in my mind that being generous to these International Students would necessarily make a good impression with them and their families and, by extension, populations in their home countries.

    Of course there is a legitimate question about whether the cost to us is worth whatever hard to quantify gains there might be here – and given that we’ve successively slashed our international aid budget there is clearly basically zero weight applied by the current government to the value of international good will – and it’s legitimate to come to the opinion that the costs far outweigh the benefits and thus decide that it’s not worth doing anything.

    But that there is a ‘soft power’ benefit should be obvious.

    Having said that, clearly there is a sliding scale of what kinds of assistance we might provide, and the Federal government has come down firmly in the “no assistance whatsoever” camp which I find hard to see a justification for, except perhaps that it is forcing the states and universities to attempt to step up and thus the Feds can smile smugly that they’ve cost shifted the burden onto the states to do something approaching the right thing. As a citizen of this nation that kind of justification doesn’t work for me – in fact it shouldn’t work as a justification for anyone except a Federal politician.

  19. We should work with foreign governments to help their stranded nationals get home.
    We should work with foreign governments to help stranded Aussies get home.
    Same same.

  20. Diplomacy wise, it’s too late now, no matter what we did for the students.

    Ethically, it is a different matter.

  21. Mexican

    Just pay the students directly. Stop with the excuses of blaming the universities. Universities forced to rely on international students as cash cows because we have a government that lacks empathy.

    The fact remains. Students begging for food is systemic failure and shows a lack of empathy after weeks of knowing its happening.

    Edit: WWP went into the empathy part. Value of education for education. Not for profit.

  22. BW

    It is time for Australia to cancel the F35 contract.

    Looks like you have finally caught up with Greens Scott Ludlam and Peter Whish-Wilson who have been highlighting problems with the contract for many years.

    November 2015: Push for inquiry into Australia’s $24 billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter purchase

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/push-for-inquiry-into-australias-24-billion-f35-joint-strike-fighter-purchase-20151127-gl9ubr.html

    A push to examine the wisdom of Australia’s planned $24 billion fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters – ranking as the nation’s largest ever defence purchase – is underway in the Senate.

    Greens defence spokesman Peter Whish-Wilson on Friday has urged the Senate’s standing committee on foreign affairs and trade to inquire into the suitability of the stealth jet for Australia’s strategic interests.
    :::
    “This is about the public’s right to know how their money is being spent and if we are getting value for money,” Senator Whish-Wilson said.

    “I would like to see many of the criticisms levelled at this procurement answered by a wide range of experts and discussed in detail at this inquiry.”
    :::
    He also urged potential alternative jets to be considered.

    ———————–
    June 2017: The senate inquiry into the procurement of the F-35

    https://greens.org.au/wa/news/media-release/senate-inquiry-procurement-f-35

    It is not all that surprising. I would confess to be disappointed but not surprised that the government disagrees with our sole dissenting recommendation, which is simply to cancel the contract.
    :::
    Not only was the government not interested in this inquiry getting on its feet—and I think it did enormously valuable work; it apparently thinks everything is just going to be fine. There is an incredible difference with the way the government considers spending on health care, education, public transport and critical infrastructure and the miserly way the government handles expenditure on income support for people. Compare that with the open chequebook, take-as-much-as-you-like approach to defence contracts. We see it unwinding at the moment with the submarine acquisition. We have seen it over and over again.

    The worse case study I have ever come across is that of the joint strike fighter, because the answer effectively that will come back from the minister will be: ‘It will cost whatever it costs. We have no plan B. We don’t know what else to do, and that’s why we can’t tell you how much it is going to cost. Not only can we not tell you; we don’t really care. We’re going ahead with it anyway.’ It is a remarkable abdication of responsibility.

    —————-
    Dissenting report by the Australian Greens – JSF: Too big, too fail

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/JointStikeFighter/Report/d01

    The Greens cannot support the majority recommendations in this report: it seems entirely likely that Australia will eventually be forced to follow Canada’s lead, leave the JSF program and reassess its options rather than simply insisting that there is no plan B.
    :::
    Recommendation 1

    1.15 The Australian Government cancel its contract to acquire the JSF and restart an open tender process to acquire new aircraft.

  23. Bucephalus @ #266 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 2:54 pm

    Unless your kids are doing something completely unique there would be a like for like comparison that the employer has to make.

    Off to the FWC you go.

    Good luck.

    Clearly, we would lose. Paying minimum wage (+ casual loading) as an hourly rate is perfectly legal. As far as I can tell, the only time you would be doing something illegal is if you also had permanent employees doing exactly the same job as your casuals but were paying them something above minimum wage. But if all your employees doing that particular job are casualized (which is typical) then you are not breaking any laws.

    In the case of one of my kids, I can see this is legal (although morally suspect). But in another case, it is clear the employer is employing two casuals to do each full-time job simply as a way of avoiding having any of their workforce deemed to be “permanent”, and having to offer them annual leave, sick leave, give them notice etc etc.

  24. guytaur: “Yeah find ways to blame the students when they are begging for food. It’s irrelevant why they are here. The point is they are starving in Australia.”

    It’s totally relevant why they are here. If they have are choosing to stay in Australia when they could easily go home and continue to pursue their studies, then Australian taxpayers are going to feel pretty unenthusiastic about having to reach into their pockets to subsidise that choice.

    If the universities want them to remain in Australia for some reason, they the universities can pay for them. The whole foreign student caper has always been purely a business transaction for universities. And it has funded the expansion of a vast and highly-paid cadre of university administrators who neither research nor teach. In many ways it has ruined and even corrupted our entire tertiary education system and now you are asking me, the taxpayer, to subsidise this mess?

    I don’t notice any ALP politician having anything to say about it. They’re too sensible.

  25. Guytaur
    Our universities behavior in January was an ethical failure on their part and they owe their students a duty of care so they should be supporting those students. They should be reimbursing their students. I know universities are offering support to some extent by raising funds through the alumni groups.

  26. Everybody seems to want to give money to international students.
    But whose pocket is it coming out of?
    They come here to study with work being an option. Same as back packers.
    I’m sure with the so called backpackers visa it says work is incidental to the purpose of their visit and you are not entitled to any government largesse.
    When I travelled I never expected foreign governments to give me sit down money and planned accordingly.

  27. BW

    The sooner we tell the US to take its marines the hell out of Australia, to get its forward equipment the hell out of the NT and to close down the two spy bases, the better.

    Again, you are as one with the Greens.

    November 2011: Is a US Marine base in Darwin really a good idea?

    https://theconversation.com/is-a-us-marine-base-in-darwin-really-a-good-idea-4260

    The Labor Government will reportedly allow the US to permanently base American Marines in Darwin.

    ———

    Scott Ludlam, May 2012 – Fact Sheet: The Impact of Military Bases

    https://scott-ludlam.greensmps.org.au/articles/fact-sheet-impact-military-bases

    The decision to base US troops in Darwin was announced by Australian Prime Minister Gillard and US President Obama in November 2011, after many months of secret negotiations. The decision will have far-reaching local impacts and foreign policy consequences, and yet the announcement was made without any consultation with Australians.

    We have a right to know what Australian facilities will be used, the purpose of the base, its eventual scale and its legal status. Before signing on to an open ended commitment, the scope of agreement between our Government and the United States must be disclosed.

    The economic benefits of military bases include employment for local contractors and suppliers. The Australian Government is proceeding as though these benefits will occur without any costs – social, economic and environmental – that have followed military bases elsewhere.

    In order to progress public debate and in the absence of any attempt by the Government to evaluate or consult on the costs and benefits of the decision, this paper briefly examines the experience of other communities hosting military bases worldwide.

  28. traffic on glebe island bridge now (5:11PM) is bumper to bumper, not moving. last friday at 5 the bridge was empty. tearing down the hansen cement works on bridge rd in preparation for the new fish market is proceeding apace. looks like its “all cisterns go” (dr poo ref. there) in nsw. -a.v.

  29. lizzie @ #293 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 3:21 pm

    Guardian

    Shocking foodlines continue across Australia for international students – who have lost jobs but cannot access jobkeeper, jobseeker, youth allowance or other support.

    We need to get BB down there immediately! He can tell ’em how they are all lazy bastards who don’t deserve any sympathy or government support! 🙂

  30. Well I am aghast and agog, and I am also gobsmacked. I have just seen Professor Brendan Murphy, Commonwealth Chief Health Officer, say that he is unsure about the link between COVID-19 and the severe inflammatory condition that some children are experiencing!

    It has been investigated and medical professionals and researchers overseas are pretty sure that THEY understand the link. I wonder why our head medical honcho cannot as well!?!

    And it is leading him to not be overly worried about it!!!

    Excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the floor as well.

  31. Peg

    You don’t have to try to be stupid. You are a natural.

    The Greens are planning to use a suicidal ‘Light Mobile Force’ to defend Australia.
    The Greens have never supported ANY defence purchase.
    The Greens’ main security policy is ‘peace studies’ with a spot of kumbaya thrown in.
    The Greens’ notion of national security is the equivalent of national kamikaze.

  32. Jackol: “There is no question in my mind that being generous to these International Students would necessarily make a good impression with them and their families and, by extension, populations in their home countries.”

    Countries that are refusing to allow students to return home would no doubt be grateful for any support we can provide to those students (thereby absolving them of an obligation which I think is ultimately theirs rather than ours). Beyond this, I think it’s an unbelievably marginal issue and would hardly come to the notice of either the governments nor the public of these countries.

    Australians who are currently trapped in India are having an extremely hard time of it. There have been a couple of stories in the media about this, but is the Government or any individual politicians making a great outcry about it? Nope. There’s too much else going on.

  33. meher baba –
    You ducked the main point. You said you didn’t understand the soft diplomacy argument.

    Do you understand that yet?

  34. The Indian Government should pay the home air fares of stranded Indian nationals.
    Can it afford it?
    It can afford a nuclear arsenal.
    It can afford an aircraft carrier.
    It can afford an army of 1.2 million.
    It can afford over 2,000 main battle tanks.
    It can afford an air force of around 500 modern air superiority and ground attack craft.
    So the answer is YES.

  35. BW

    Thanks for the compliment. You’re a hoot.

    When it comes to the Greens all you have are emotive unsubstantiated claims. I no longer take you seriously at all on just about everything and I doubt I am alone in this.

  36. C@tmomma: “Well I am aghast and agog, and I am also gobsmacked. I have just seen Professor Brendan Murphy, Commonwealth Chief Health Officer, say that he is unsure about the link between COVID-19 and the severe inflammatory condition that some children are experiencing! It has been investigated and medical professionals and researchers overseas are pretty sure that THEY understand the link. I wonder why our head medical honcho cannot as well!?!”

    Quite a few overseas medical professionals and researchers were convinced at one point about a connection between MMR vaccines and autism in children, and this too got a lot of coverage in the media and – to its eternal shame – the Lancet published a ridiculous paper on the subject that should never have gotten through their review mechanism.

    In light of past schmozzles such as this one, Murphy is presumably taking the sensible approach of refusing to provide medical advice on the basis of media reports and will wait for the findings of peer-reviewed research.

  37. Jackol: “You ducked the main point. You said you didn’t understand the soft diplomacy argument.
    Do you understand that yet?”

    Ok, fair enough. I understand what you are saying but think it’s nonsense.

  38. C@t

    Something in Brendan Murphy’s brain refuses to acknowledge that children can be in real danger, either at school or though the inflammatory condition. He doesn’t ever quote anything that supports him.

  39. lizzie @ #395 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 5:24 pm

    C@t

    Something in Brendan Murphy’s brain refuses to acknowledge that children can be in real danger, either at school or though the inflammatory condition. He doesn’t ever quote anything that supports him.

    People need to stop thinking of Murphy as an independent voice. He is not. He is a mouthpiece for Morrison.

  40. Unlike Labor with its captain’s pick, the Liberals are having a preselction ballot for Eden-Monaro.

    “The Liberal party has revealed its two preselection contenders for the Eden-Monaro byelection.

    Dr Fiona Kotvojs, who ran for the Liberal party in the seat last election, and Mark Schweikert, who is a local councillor, will run against each other to be the party’s nominee for the upcoming byelection.” – The G

  41. boerwar: “The Indian Government should pay the home air fares of stranded Indian nationals.
    Can it afford it?
    It can afford a nuclear arsenal.
    It can afford an aircraft carrier.
    It can afford an army of 1.2 million.
    It can afford over 2,000 main battle tanks.
    It can afford an air force of around 500 modern air superiority and ground attack craft.
    So the answer is YES.”

    I’ve not heard that the Indian Government is refusing to pay for anyone to travel to India.

    What they have done is to close all the airports and refuse to let anyone at all – even their own citizens – into the country. I think I have posted this fact several times now. I think an online argument is always more interesting if people actually read what the people they are arguing with have posted before they respond to it.

  42. Player One

    I agree that it’s the Morrison effect. For some reason known only to himself, M wants the kids “at their desks, pronto.”

  43. Further to my earlier post re the possible link between Kawasaki disease and coronvirus, I found this in a report in the Age newspaper from yesterday.

    “Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy has asked Australia’s leading paediatric experts for a report on Kawasaki disease, which is the closest known illness to that which has developed in almost 100 children in the US, including newborns and teenagers, in the past two months.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/experts-call-for-urgent-research-on-coronavirus-linked-child-disease-20200512-p54sb9.html

    Seems to me to be a responsible and concerned response from Murphy.

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