With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.
• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.
• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.
Bucephalus
Labor hire firms offer two advantages.
1) Illegality is removed from your business. To claim labor hire firms are all as pure as driven snow is a nonsense. Some of the stuff that goes on is sickening.
2)You don’t have to deal with the kindergarten.
The disadvantage, you not part of the kindergarten and the kids could not care less about your business.
Yeah I can see the need for some of the flexibility for employers, but I’m not a fan of the casual system we have. It is really an exploitation system.
We need some kind of reverse payroll tax where labor hire (and particularly o/seas labor services and outsourced jobs) get hit the hardest, then the casual wage bill gets hit the next hardest, then there is relief for long term permanent employees. Say 20% tax, 15% tax 10% that scales to 0% tax over 5 years.
Bucephalus @ #168 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 11:07 am
And that’s enough to cover a minimum of 14 days isolation?
Continually Insufferablesays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 1:33 pm
“It’s not going to be possible to recoup $ from overseas students, so no $ for them”
Perhaps you could provide a link with supporting evidence? No? Just making shit up? Yes.
They aren’t Australian Residents and their visas do not entitle them to support from our welfare system. We have a legal responsibility and duty to look after Australian Citizens and Residents.
If I go overseas I don’t expect other countries to give me their welfare dollars. I take out travel insurance and have travel arrangements or money/credit in place to to get me home if something goes to poo.
lizzie says:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 1:34 pm
Ignore Mayne – serial perst and a bore. Wish I was in the NT right now. Perfect time of the year for it.
frednksays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 1:41 pm
“To claim labor hire firms are all as pure as driven snow is a nonsense.”
Where did I do that?
frednk @ #193 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 1:31 pm
You may be right.
In fact maybe Mundo wastes electrons like Labor wastes opportunities to improve its electoral standing by holding the government to account. And doing it in such a way that someone actually notices.
It must be hard for them choosing from the great array of real jobs with good employers, odd they’d pick casual with that vast array of choice.
I too worked casual through uni and it was a lot better than not eating, but you know it was still exploitation.
Casual work suits many people’s lifestyles, and it can be far more lucrative than regular full-time or part-time work, so it’s nonsense to suggest that all casual workers have been forced into it.
The problem here arises from human nature. Casuals are paid a loading which includes an allowance for the sick leave to which they would be entitled if they were a full-time or part-time employee. Under the minimum wage and most awards and EAs, the rate of the allowance is perfectly reasonable. But, because most people are people and not calculating machines, casual workers receiving it typically do not save a part of it every fortnight to provide a nest egg equivalent to sick leave in case they fall ill.
This is actually one of the things employers really like about casual workers: they are far less likely than other employees to take a “sickie” or a “mental health day” on a Monday or Friday or on days on which a heavier than usual workload is anticipated.
However, life is made up of swings and roundabouts, and the down side of casual employees is that, knowing that they’ll earn no money if they don’t front up, they are far more likely to come into work when seriously ill. And, as I have already posted, any employer in the current situation who doesn’t put in place some sort of incentive system for workers who display symptoms of coronavirus to stay home (eg, a few days of paid “COVID-19 leave”) is failing to adopt a commonsense approach to risk management.
Because the costs to any employer who finds themselves in a Cedar Meats or Newmarch House situation are going to far exceed the costs of paying out a few days of sick leave here or there that they are not contractually required to pay. The problem with many employers is that they don’t realise that awards and EAs set minimums and not maximums.
Kimberley has been naughty.
“Victorian Labor senator Kimberley Kitching has been rebuked for using parliament to make “unfounded, personal and false allegations” that a top government official was “corrupt”, “drunk on power” and “a thug in a suit” without disclosing he had previously led an investigation into serious allegations about her misconduct.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/slap-for-senator-kimberley-kitchings-false-allegations/news-story/c4ad158ea5fdea87b78334439767065a
Bucephalus says:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 1:45 pm
Continually Insufferablesays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 1:33 pm
“It’s not going to be possible to recoup $ from overseas students, so no $ for them”
This is the essence of the situation, conceptually-speaking. The idea is that losses will lie where they fall. Some socially-mobilised credit will be available, but this will not extend to the under-group.
It’s remarkably short-sighted. A really important part of the economy is going to be liquidated on arbitrary grounds. It’s a form of self-harm in an emergency….pennywise/pound foolish
More Moir:
Based of what I saw out and about today, we’ll be back in stage 3 lockdown before you know it.
Buce
‘And don’t give me this BS about all the employers not complying – that’s illegal…’
bwahahaha…
Which would be why employers who have literally stolen millions of dollars in wages and billions in Super are all in jail.
Casual workers are lumpen, mostly. They are not fully enfranchised workers, and experience recurring financial insecurity…with all the attendant problems: lack of access to credit and therefore to home-ownership, more downtime, higher transience, lower lifetime incomes, far fewer choices and opportunities…
If insecure work was the bees knees we’d all be driving for Uber.
And if full-time casuals are fully compensated for their sick pay, holidays, etc,as is being claimed, what’s stopping employers making them permanent?
There’s a reason employers like day labour – it’s cheaper to hire unskilled or semiskilled labour by the hour or the day. The cost of labour is a pure marginal input – only so much is hired as is needed from hour to hour. This reduces real wage costs to the lowest permissible rate.
The insecurity implicit in this is borne by the worker….in every possible sense.
It’s not for nothing that manual workers fought so hard to abolish day labour on the wharves and in the farms and factories.
Amal Clooney is here in Australia saying Australia should adopt sanction scheme against people believed to be involved in human rights abuses overseas – all while the Left and Refugee Advocates are wanting us to keep Tamil Tiger terrorists in Australia.
Tamil Tigers:
Invented the use of suicide bombing against soft civilian targets.
Used Child Soldiers.
Tortured and executed whoever they wanted to.
Had a Year 0 Nihilist Marxist philosophy just like the Khmer Rouge.
Used human shields.
Really nice people.
Bucephalus says:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 1:49 pm
frednksays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 1:41 pm
“To claim labor hire firms are all as pure as driven snow is a nonsense.”
Where did I do that?
___________________________
So what is your view of labour hire firms?
Bucephalus says:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 2:11 pm
Amal Clooney is here in Australia saying Australia should adopt sanction scheme against people believed to be involved in human rights abuses overseas – all while the Left and Refugee Advocates are wanting us to keep Tamil Tiger terrorists in Australia.
_______________________________
Take that George Clooney! Incitatus would rather we murder our own, like Trump is doing to his people.
boerwarsays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 2:03 pm
“Which would be why employers who have literally stolen millions of dollars in wages and billions in Super are all in jail.”
You mean like the ABC, WA Education Department, Victorian Department of Justice and Department of Health and Human Services, NT Government?
Yeah, and the Sri Lankan governing authorities who were oppressing, torturing and murdering them had such sweet dispositions and gentle natures as well.
The NT says ‘Hi’ to all youse Southerners.
https://www.ntnews.com.au/lifestyle/back-to-the-pub-the-territorys-historic-day-keep-up-to-date-with-our-rolling-live-coverage-here/live-coverage/cf4d59e9c8089f011a4d6a8e968e86b3
You mean like the ABC, WA Education Department, NT Government?
______________________________
Incitatus is doing great things for Scott Caligula Morrison. A knighthood is on its way!
She may well have been, but you are going to need a reliable source, the Murdoch stable is not a reliable source, it is a thoroughly dishonorable and discredited propaganda machine that feeds off racism and hate.
Bill Shorten loved Labour Hire companies. He did plenty of dodgy deals with them and the Labour Hire company UniBuilt donated 40k to his election campaign in 2007.
Fulvio Sammutsays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 2:15 pm
Last time I checked the Sinhalese aren’t claiming refugee status and loosing every single court case they have brought.
If you’ve got issues with how the Sri Lankan Government fought against the Tamil Tigers then I suggest you go to Sri Lanka and take it up with them. I’m more interested in Terrorists taking our court systems for a ride and using children as pawns in their game.
Bucephalus @ #221 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 2:14 pm
Pizza Hut, 7-11, Coles, Woolworths, etc., etc..
Bucephalus @ #218 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 12:11 pm
WOW!!!
Who could you possibly be misrepresenting?
Buce is conflating Clooney and the Tamil Tigers. Why?
Implicitly, by association Buce is depicting Clooney as a terrorist. What’s the story there? Could simply be that Buce dislikes Human Rights campaigners? Why? It seems this is just another pretext to defile his ideological opponents… “the Left”…. how pathetic.
Incitatus is claiming every Tamil is a terrorist. How utterly racist and vile.
Ideo-LibNats….halfwits and thugs
A did a google search and it is only a story in the murdoch sewers, so i think we can all disregard the suggestion Kimberly has been naughty in any serious sense.
Fulvio Sammutsays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 2:08 pm
“And if full-time casuals are fully compensated for their sick pay, holidays, etc,as is being claimed, what’s stopping employers making them permanent?”
There is no employment category of “full-time casuals”.
Why don’t you go to a casual worker and tell them you are going to cut their take home pay and superannuation contributions by 20% but they can have sick leave and annual leave and see what the reaction is.
If the Sri Lankan Government had any evidence that the Tamils in Australia were criminals they could have brought extradition proceedings. Last I heard they were still part of the Commonwealth, and could have expected a sympathetic hearing.
The most extraordinary story about the Tamil Tigers – they wanted to assassinate the Sri Lankan army chief, so they got a Tamil woman to become pregnant by a Sinhalese army officer and knowing she would receive medical care on base had the woman blow herself up in the maternity ward as the army chiefs car drove by. Many people died but the army chief survived his injuries and became President.
Its an extraordinary story but says so much about that group and its leader Vellupai Prabkahan.
It is pretty easy to see why Murdoch would be fighting against a magnitsky act, just hard to see why anyone would support such a vile and disgusting cause.
It is pretty disappointing we have been so slow to adopt magnitsky act type law.
Kimberley Kitching is great.
I know people who work as casuals yet work over 40 hours per week on an ongoing basis.
Don’t try and dazzle me with petulant semantics.
TPOFsays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 2:11 pm
“So what is your view of labour hire firms?”
I can’t see any from my window.
They should comply with the law.
I know a few guys who work for them and are quite happy with them. They like the FIFO shut-down project type work and the time off and flexibility.
If you say so, but being a target of a Murdoch smear campaign is an indicator she isn’t 100% bad.
nath, Only four more sleeps until the first anniversary of the Third Fundamental Injustice Day!
For those who have forgotten:
First Fundamental Injustice Day: – Introduction of the GST in 2000
Second Fundamental Injustice Day: – The Knifing of one K.Rudd in 2010
Third Fundamental Injustice Day: – The defeat of Bill Shorten and Turtle Bowen in 2019
Strangely they seem to happen on average approximately every 10 years.
WeWantPaul
says:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 2:30 pm
Kimberley Kitching is great.
If you say so, but being a target of a Murdoch smear campaign is an indicator she isn’t 100% bad.
_________________
You haven’t even read the article.
Continually Insufferablesays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 2:21 pm
“Buce is conflating Clooney and the Tamil Tigers. Why?
Implicitly, by association Buce is depicting Clooney as a terrorist. ”
Are you that out of touch with the touchstone issues of the Left? – the Nadesalingam family – aka the Biloela Family – are Tamil Tigers.
Ms Clooney isn’t a terrorist.
TPOFsays:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 2:22 pm
“Incitatus is claiming every Tamil is a terrorist.”
No, just the Nadesalingam family.
Lars Von Trier
says:
Friday, May 15, 2020 at 2:30 pm
nath, Only four more sleeps until the first anniversary of the Third Fundamental Injustice Day!
__________________________
the sooner that the disgrace that is the ALP is replaced by a genuine Social Democratic party the better. How longer can we take being wedged between 2 sets of pathetic wannabe gangsters?
Buce
Who wouldn’t be happy being in the top few % of wage/salary earners? . Hardly your average/typical ‘casual’ .
Of course I haven’t, I don’t go into that sewer, you come out a little bit stupider and a little bit nastier every time you consume the filth from the Murdoch machine. Just look at the fox viewers in the US and sky viewers in a Australia (both of them)
Socrates
On the Eastern Freeway crash
In this case the driver is alleged to have crossed three lanes of traffic then straightened up and without breaking driven at high speed through four police officers.
If those reports are accurate then the driver and only the driver is responsible for the murder of those four officers.