With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.
• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.
• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.
Steve777
Exactly a journo might be a member of the communist party but if they want to keep a well paid job in a shrinking industry they will write exactly what ‘management’ expects of them.
Is Australia a functioning democracy?
I suggest not.
Our parliament relies upon the members acting honourably
and the ministers telling the truth.
It is very serious if a minister misleads parliament. Ministers are also expected to take responsibility for the actions of people reporting to them ( ie those in their department).
Our current crop fail both tests.
Morrison himself has mislead parliament, as has Taylor, Cash, and others. Resignations? Nil
Ministerial Responsibility? You’re joking aren’t you?
So no, it’s not working when you have a bunch of liars in charge, led by the Liar in Chief.
Steve777
Exactly those media companies would control the tone of news coverage and in all workplaces people will follow the company line only to moan about the management at after work drinks or in the lunch room.
Just got one of those stupid calls “This is Telstra. Your internet will be cut off unless…”
Made worse because I was asleep so now I’m double grumpy.
Barney:’This is a strange comment as it is widely accepted that our economic prosperity over a long period of time has largely been because of ongoing high immigration numbers.’
That is my point. The increase in population requires more housing and economists see this as a good thing.
They totally ignore the bush that was bulldozed to clear the block, the output of CO2 to produce the bricks and concrete, the forest that is clear felled for the timber, the invasive pests they put in their garden. The fuel they use to get about and warm/cool their house etc.
Mega only looks at this issue for a economists’ eyes. Economists don’t care what happens down the track. If something runs out, if the air is polluted, if a species goes extinct that is a problem we can look at later.
Enforcing social distancing at a cafe in Germany
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/15/europe/german-cafe-noodle-distancing-scli-intl-grm/index.html
Ryan StruykVerified account @ryanstruyk
Reported US coronavirus cases on date:
Feb. 15: 15 cases
Mar. 15: 3,485 cases
Apr. 15: 638,111 cases
May 15: 1,484,285 cases
Reported US coronavirus deaths:
80 days ago: 0 deaths
10 days ago: 71, 043 deaths
Right now: 88, 507 deaths
Meanwhile in the good ol US of A:
The already dismal outlook for economic growth during the current period just got considerably worse.
Gross domestic product, which tallies the sum of goods and services across the economy, is on track to crater 42.8% in the April-to-June period, according to a running measure kept by the Atlanta Federal Reserve.
The tracker, called GDPNow, had been indicating a drop of 34.9% a week ago, but a raft of poor economic data since then caused the central bank district to take down the figure even more. The drop would easily be the worst in the post-World War II era.
On top of all the bad jobs reports recently, the Census Bureau reported Friday that retail sales collapsed 16.4% in April, which was even worse than the 12.3% that economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been forecasting. That came following news Thursday that another nearly 3 million Americans filed jobless claims last week, bringing the running eight-week total during the coronavirus lockdown to 36.5 million.
Does anyone agree with this?” [that Australia is not a functioning democracy
————-
To answer that one has to define what is meant by “democracy”.
In the ancient Greek sense of democracy of course Australia it is not. No country is ruled by its “demos”.
We elect representatives to rule us for a period.
But we associate a number of other attributes and rights with “democracy”: right to equal participation, right to express one’s opinion, right to have fair elections, Right that Parliament accurately reflect citizens choices, right to have elected officials held to standards of honesty and integrity.
On these things one would have to honestly say Australian democracy has a great need for improvement.
My fresh cup of coffee tastes just the way I like it. Pray Zeus for no relapse.☕
Tasted like the fabled dishwater this morning.
As you were. Dismissed. Full kits and rifles in the morning for a couple hours of drill.
Oh no! lizzie is twice as grumpy as normal! run!
New Zealand
Zero again 🙂
It was the same for public servants during the Howard era and presumably also today. Still, I had a bit of fun occasionally writing obvious BS to keep the ministerial staffers and senior management happy.
citizen @ #756 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 11:29 am
That doesn’t look very effective to me.
Can you put those on MAGA hats?
Cud Chewer
Cheeky! It’s lucky that my ability to throw straight is seriously impaired, or I’d chuck a screwed-up ball of paper at you. 🙁
SK:
The MAGAs are too busy working out how to fit Super Dooper onto a hat.
Rakali
says:
On these things one would have to honestly say Australian democracy has a great need for improvement.
____________________
Still let us be thankful for the AEC and the governments that created it. Remember when Labor did shit like that?
Australia is a functioning democracy. I find people that say it isn’t usually say it because they don’t like the government of the day.
Mexicanbeemer
I think I’ll have to do more research on the meaning of democracy. I suspect it has a few difference flavours.
edit: different
Perhaps this hat would help social distancing?
nath
Yes, AEC is much better than not having one.
One of the main problems is the ability of wealthy people/businesses to fund political candidates. This is, to my mind, an obvious form of indirect corruption which is the whole point of it.
No company that operates for profit within an area should be able to fund candidates for office in that area.
No company that operates for profit in an area should be able to get any government contracts if they have funded the government party issuing the contracts.
Confessionssays: Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 1:45 pm
The MAGAs are too busy working out how to fit Super Dooper onto a hat.
************* ************************************************
Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA
Trump boasts of a new “super duper missile that’s 17 times faster.”
Stormy Daniels could not confirm Trump’s missile was “super duper”, but did report it was 17 times faster.
‘Obvious our president is beyond incompetent’: Chorus of ridicule after Trump brags of new ‘super-duper missile’
President Donald Trump on Friday afternoon said the U.S. military is developing a “super duper missile” that can go 17 times faster than any existing rocket, earning him ridicule from critics
Breaking Defense reporter Paul McLeary said on Twitter that he had not yet received confirmation from sources at the Pentagon indicating any knowledge of what the president was talking about.
I think the American Monarch, pro tem, wishes to be Rocket Man. 🙂
Would this happen to be Trump’s sooper dooper missile?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Upt7ZTvcriY
Looking at the numbers for New York State, the Virus has infected nearly 2% of the population according to official numbers, but likely many more. It has killed 1/700 of the population in about 4 months. Its apparent mortality rate (deaths / resolved) is about 24% (!), compared to Australia’s 1.5%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
By way of comparison, Australia’s road toll is about 1/20000 of the population p.a.
PhoenixRed
Trump is a conman and a charlatan.
There are no limits to his bullshittery
Danama Papers @ #190 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 12:09 pm
As far as the rest of the world is aware, you are the only person who has ever mentioned having “a crumpet rammed up their jacksie/arse.” Do you report this event as the rammer or rammee? Or is it, perhaps, just another one of your wishful dreams?
” Perhaps this hat would help social distancing?…”
There might be a market for Elaine’s ”Urban Sombrero” (Seinfeld) after all.
“Trump boasts of a new “super duper missile that’s 17 times faster.”
It’s amazing what a few kilos of Viagra can do to a missile when added to the fuel mix.
Confessions @ #727 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 11:49 am
Note how he promised it for AFTER the election, when he can no longer be held accountable if he doen’t deliver? However, he can promise it up hill and down dale UNTIL the election.
Evil scumbag.
Rakali
Not for profit doesn’t equate to not been profit driven so i’m not sure what point there is to allowing them to donate while not allowing for profits to donate and wealthy people will still have access through the not for profits or directly to the MP so if you are going to restrict donations then it has to be for both for and not for profit entities.
I think you will find that the IPA are a not for profit.
Brexit talks are not going very well. The UK government has a reason to panic if deadlines are not met – the EU not so much.
Rakali @ #775 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 1:58 pm
Yeah, like this guy:
phoenixRed:
President Donald Trump on Friday afternoon said the U.S. military is developing a “super duper missile” that can go 17 times faster than any existing rocket, earning him ridicule from critics
And China or Russia or whomever develop a Zooper Dooper Anti Missile Battery to shoot them down. 😐
Quoll:
Sometime in the past year or so, “The Australian” ran in its business section a report on corporate law headcounts, reporting as fact a massive (double digit) surge in both the number of partners and number of associates.
There was no real explanation as why this had (apparently) occurred, but it was reported as a factual
phenomenon, and there were all sort of analyses proffered as to what the likely implications of the surge were and would be.
In addition to the headline numbers, there was a table of the major corps law firms, so naturally one would turn one’s attention to this detail, at least casually interested to see which firms where doing well, and benefiting from the double digit industry growth.
Strangely, however, none of the firms in the table had individually achieved double digit growth in headcount, so one had a mathematically impossible situation were the growth in the sum was (much) greater than the maximum of the growth of any of the terms being summed.
Looking further into their table it quickly become clear where the problem was: Minter-Ellison (often the largest firm by headcount) had simply not participated in the prior year data. This was handled correctly in the table (Minter-Ellison growth given as N/A with a note) but incorrectly in the aggregate (Minter-Ellison added to the current year, but counted as zero in the prior year).
In other words, the supposed double digit growth was in fact wholly the consequence of a trivial mathematical error, and all the “analysis” of that supposed growth was entirely baseless as the growth had not occurred. There was no retraction, no correction and no discussion that I could see – it simply “went through to the keeper”.
Journalism in aggregate is determined by the underlying business model, which involves (even for non-commercial operations):
– a certain amount of pandering to the prejudices of the existing “customer” base
– a certain amount of controversy to attract new readership (or at least to give third parties the impression that such attraction might be occurring)
The clearly wrong report (and “analysis”) of growth in corps lawyer headcounts in “The Australian” satisfied both of these criteria. It is completely irrelevant that it was completely wrong, since that has nothing to do with any mass-market media business model.
Perhaps Trump has been watching Futurama cartoons?
I know it’s the middle of the night there but I just had a quick look at flights over US on flightradar. Most planes in the air right now at FedEx, with a smattering of UPS and DHL and other cargo carriers, making up the vast majority.
Mexicanbeemer
I think you will find that the IPA are a not for profit.
———-
Good point. All donations from companies banned.
hello Roger Miller : i’ll swap my “marine traffic-global ship tracking intelligence” for you air traffic tracker. -cheers, a.v.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:151.288/centery:-33.826/zoom:12
Meher – very astute observation this morning:
“ mundo: “Anyone who thinks it has a left wing bias simply can’t be watching it.”
I think that, when it comes to the ABC, a lot of Labor supporters, including many posters on PB, confuse “anti-Labor” and “right wing bias.”
Many years ago, Peter Costello made a very perceptive comment when asked if he thought the ABC was “pro-Labor”. He said WTTE of “definitely not. They are biased to the political left, but they don’t believe the Labor Party is left-wing enough, so they hate Labor more than they hate us.”
An anonymous survey done a few years back found that the majority of ABC journalists identified themselves as Greens supporters. Most young journos these days come from tertiary communications courses where, among the good practical stuff, they are also taught a lot of French Marxist and post-Marxist nonsense. That stuff has a lasting impact on them. And, of course, the further left of centre your views are, the more inclined you become to forget about the right wing and concentrate your energies in battling against your true enemy, the centre left.”
_______
However I think you are missing one ingredient in the make up of ABC journalists, indeed most journos. They often come from middle class backgrounds. They may take to various brands of Marxist thought like a duck to water, but their natural inclination is petite bourgeoisie. That’s why the likes of Murpharoo, Taylor, Sabra, Fran, Leigh, Ellen etc etc went (and remain) gaga for Gilderoy Lockhart.
“ Peg: ‘It is to Morrison’s credit that he remains pro-migration’
Mega showing he is an economist and not an environmentalist.”
Mega demonstrating that he is a dishonest prick. Just like our lil’ Green Pony. Giddy up.
The usual suspects are going to have conniptions, but this is a really smart move by Labor.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/16/labor-calls-for-end-to-decade-long-barney-on-climate-wars-in-post-pandemic-recovery?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
On top of the filthy infected Coronavirus is this:
A café in Melbourne’s inner-north has been closed for more than a week due to a salmonella outbreak that’s feared to have caused illness in 36 people.
The Lincoln Bakery Café on Bouverie Street in Carlton was closed on May 8 and 36 people who ate there prior to the closure have been diagnosed with salmonella poisoning.
I’d agree with this statement.
AE: “However I think you are missing one ingredient in the make up of ABC journalists, indeed most journos. They often come from middle class backgrounds. They may take to various brands of Marxist thought like a duck to water, but their natural inclination is petite bourgeoisie. ”
Marxism and all other far left ideologies basically represent middle class ways of thinking about the world. The idealistic people who dreamed them up were middle class. The people who rode them into positions of absolute power in many countries around the world were for the most part middle class. The people who teach these ideas at universities are middle class, as are the students who soak them up.
The historic nature of many middle class people is to aspire to join the ruling class. There are different ways of pursuing this goal, but one very popular and successful one from the French Revolution onward has been to portray yourself as an advocate of the people/proletariat/colonised race or whoever and seize power, ostensibly on their behalf. After this is achieved, you set about killing all your enemies and setting things up so that you, your family and your friends can all live high on the hog while the people/proletariat/colonised race continue to work hard and get little in return.
It’s the second greatest scam in human history after the divine right of kings.
Player One says:
Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 10:41 am
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #688 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 10:25 am
I see unfettered capitalism as Darwinian, while the social structures and laws that we put in place as an attempt to moderate this.
“Survival of the wealthiest” is not the same as “Survival of the fittest”. It can, in fact, result in exactly the opposite.
Look at the Trump family for a perfect example.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
A very good point Player. I wish I had thought of that.
I remember an argument I had circa 40 years ago with an over-privileged little rightwing medical student (thankfully he failed, thus sparing many a patient in the years since) saying wtte that wealth differentials were merely a reflection of Darwin’s natural selection at work.
When someone pointed out that organisms winning the natural selection race do so by having more offspring than their competitors, and that therefore, the rich must be losing the race to the unwashed, because they were having fewer offspring, he kind of changed the subject.
So the working class should be lied to so that they vote for people who will give them trickle down economics? Yeah, right.
Victoria says:
Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 2:01 pm
Correct. And yet you all hang off every utterance and tweet and parse every media conference.
He lives in your heads.
Most rational people ignore everything he says and only look at the actions that matter.
Hypersonic missiles aren’t a new concept but none have reached operational production that I’m aware of. They have been tested in Australia at Woomera. I’m unaware of what they are 17 times faster than although they are expected to operate at Mach 5 or greater.