With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.
• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.
• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.
Just to add to my last post.
I actually think Marx himself had some interesting ideas.
Sure, his labour theory of value was crap: even Marxist economists gave up trying to defend that years ago. I am sorry to say that, when I was young, I read all three volumes of Das Kapital, and, when I got to the end, I realised that I couldn’t have more comprehensively wasted my time!
Equally crap was his prediction that capitalism would gradually make things worse and worse for the proletariat until the whole system would collapse under the weight of its own contradictions and be replaced by the glorious socialist republic. On the contrary, the standard of living of working people in advanced capitalist economies just kept getting better and better, and the glorious socialist republics have only ever popped up in less developed economies.
And Marx’s vision of life under glorious socialism was incredibly naive: everyone would do a bit of what they felt like doing to contribute to the common good, and that would be enough to keep everything going nicely. He never bothered to explain who was going to clean the toilets or collect the garbage under that model.
But Marx’s concepts of historical materialism and economic determinism are worthwhile, and he was also the first person to sort of get the fact that technological advancement drives change in societies and cultures. So, in short, I would rate Marx 0/10 as an economist and 0/10 as a political scientist, but perhaps 7/10 as an historian.
WA 2 cases added to the total but no new cases.
From ABC news:
“WA Health Minister Roger Cook says there have been no new coronavirus cases in Western Australia in the past 24 hours.
But two more cases have been added to the state’s total after two people were found to have previously had the virus through antibody testing.
Both cases are believed to have contracted the disease around six weeks ago and have recovered.
One was a passenger on a cruise ship.”
Intriguing. They’re not just trialling antibodies but counting antibody-positive as confirmed.
Greensborough Growler @ #794 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 3:12 pm
‘Labor-calls-for-end-to-decade-long-barney-on-climate-wars’
Labor calls for Morrison to stop lying.
Labor calls for Frydenberg to accept he’s out of his depth and resign.
You can say it, doesn’t mean anything will come of it.
I’d agree that technological progess is where its at.
So where are we in Australia? A conservative government that’s anti-science, wastes money on subsidising old industries whilst not investing in new industries. Starves universities. Etc.. etc..
And a culture amongst the rich that is the opposite of agile and innovative. That is all about rent seeking. And a government that encourages this culture.
Cud Chewer @ #805 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 4:04 pm
It’s not just the Govt, but also a large chunk of the Opposition.
The polity is corrupt until the voters put away their illogical partisanship and fix it.
How good is the AEC when it supports cheats who mislead voters by faking election notices? Fake notices using the AEC’s own official colours.
The Toorak Toff
Unbelievable that they dismissed the complaint.
meher baba @ #798 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 1:37 pm
Sounds like the Liberal Party!
Greensborough Growler @ #794 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 3:12 pm
Labor goes from having no policies to adopting the COALition policies and you think this is a “really smart move”?
What’s the weather like on that planet you live on?
When you put Marx’s work in historical perspective – that being the horrors of workers pay and conditions during the hey day of unrestrained capitalism in the industrial revolution – you will see that Marx indirectly changed the course of capitalism. Politicians started regulating capitalism. Welfare states were created. Workers unionised. Workers parties won elections.
And some countries developed socialist states. You can rightly say Communist Russia/Soviet Union collapsed. You could also say communism transformed an unruly backwater into a superpower. The corruption of communism was inevitable – just as corruption of laissez faire capitalism is. It is this corruption that brings civilisations crashing apart. And democracy, when the definition is limited to just voting for representatives, will/would not save either.
Furthermore… there have been studies that shows the actual ‘quality of life’ outcomes are better in socialist countries than their equivalent/comparable capitalist country. It has been a while…. I will try to extract them from my archives.
lizzie @ #798 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 3:37 pm
Yairs mate. A considerable liking for the benefits of self delusion coupled with a desire to continue doing a really good gig with no talent, ability or desire for improvement ensures the continuation of the species.
Its a little like a pair of friends –
He – We should get married.
She – Yes, but who’d have us ❓
Our useless pollies perpetually sucking away dare not stop lest the universe find the secret they are desperate to hide.
Please God, don’t let anybody find out how useless I am.
Here endeth the lesson.
If yer doin nothin tomorrow around noonish I think I will hitch old Bessie to the sulky and swing by your way. We could inspect the local ploughshares. 🚜
I understand that another two cases of Gummint Arseholery were detected today. Records tumbling as the participants eagerly vie for top of the day honours.
No I don’t know what that means either.
Player One @ #811 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 4:24 pm
A jobs guarantee program should be a bipartisan no-brainer.
KayJay
Them ole ploughshares sartinly could do with some inspectin. Ain’t seen em fer many a long yer.
Player One @ #810 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 4:24 pm
You are finding out that the Maven from Bumcrack Mountain does not rule the world.
But, do give us another tantrum.
Lizzie
Property has never been unionist in a trade union sense with most property professionals being represented by the REIV or other real estate bodies and the Property Council. The property industry is mostly locals and construction has long been the employer of migrants.
Bucephalus @ #800 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 3:50 pm
I always say that you watch what Politicians do, not what they say.
meher
I would say ‘trickle down economics’ ranks above ‘communism’ in the scam stakes, though the ‘divine right of kings’ is clearly on top.
The millions either on the streets, in trailer parks or queuing up at food kitchens in the USA were there before the C19, and all that has done is swell the numbers astronomically.
And if we ignore the demagogues, they remian uncriticised and they get their message out unfiltered. Which is what they want and what I, for one, will never let them get away with, for as long as I can.
Mexicanbeemer
Could be a problem if the borders remain closed then, since there seems to be a push for more “infrastructure”.
The USA is almost up to one and a half million confirmed cases of COVID-19!
Without descending to read the SmearStralian, I would say their spiv constituency are more interested in wealthy, professional or business people, being let in again – so they can buy property, keep prices high, line the pockets of developers. And the State governments get to clip the ticket via stamp duty to build their toll roads and white elephant stadiums.
They don’t want to bring in construction workers.
Lizzie
The Australian Newspaper has an agenda so when it tweets about the need for more imported labour then its pushing that. Knowing that many tradesman are currently off and maybe Victoria can tell us more about that situation but currently there isn’t a shortage of labour.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 4:48 pm
Without descending to read the SmearStralian, I would say their spiv constituency are more interested in wealthy, professional or business people, being let in again – so they can buy property, keep prices high, line the pockets of developers. And the State governments get to clip the ticket via stamp duty to build their toll roads and white elephant stadiums.
————————————-
That would be a big part of it but from reports around today the open for inspections were running hot.
sprocket and mexican
Always an ulterior motive with the Oz.
It appears we have 2 views of the property market in the major cities.
1. Bank and other economists warning of a lengthy recession, and prices flat at best, or falling up to 30% over the next 2 years.
2. Media, namely Murdoch organs, breathlessly spruiking the ‘snapback’, and desperate buyers falling over themselves to avoid FOMO.
Not an exact reflection of the Science vs Scumbag dichotomies evident in the Climate or C19 debates, but a whiff.
“Home prices will tumble 32 per cent over a prolonged downturn period, the Commonwealth Bank has warned.
In Sydney, where the median house price is $889,992, that fall will wipe $284,798 from the median home value by March 2023. “
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/cba-warns-of-32-house-price-tumble-020218800.html
Property and Real Estate | Daily Telegraph
3 days ago · Exclusive Agents are upping price guides and reversing previous gloomy forecasts amid extraordinary demand for quality listings in some parts of Sydney … and one economist has made a bold prediction. 4m ago …
Player One @ #808 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 4:24 pm
Amen.
From the UK
lizzie @ #806 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 4:17 pm
‘Literally millions out of work, and Morrison’s wealthy donors are already demanding cheap foreign (and ununionised) labour be allowed onto Australian building sites. ‘
Mr Albanese said.
I’d like to see property prices fall and the reduction in immigration will help. But interest rates are so low that this is unlikely. Maybe inner city units but that’s about it. Property bears have been right for about 1 year out of the last 20.
sprocket_ @ #826 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 4:55 pm
1. People buy and sell in the same market. It’s the cost of transitionn that counts.
2. People are genuinely interested in Property prices. I’ve never heard that Rupert made me do it.
One from the vault..
I would really like property prices to come down for about a year so my son can buy his first home with the inheritance he received from his grandmother last year.
KThnxBai 🙂
GG
I don’t know about Melbourne, but Sydney property has been super charged (super dooper?) by migration, near 100,000 a year – mostly skilled professionals, business investment visas, and foreign students on a path to converting to permanent residency.
They buy property, lots of it. They are not coming now because of closed borders.
sprocket_ @ #835 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 5:11 pm
There are are no guarantees in life.
Sprocket_
There has been some controversy because a number of those people are currently locked out of the country despite wanting to return despite already living and working here.
” I’m unaware of what they are 17 times faster than although they are expected to operate at Mach 5 or greater.”
So maybe 17 times faster than a Cessna or a light commercial propeller-driven aircraft.
Greensborough Growler @ #815 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 4:34 pm
You think someone reporting on lived experience in the real world is a “tantrum”?
You need to get out more. Try visiting a bushfire affected area once the restrictions ease. You might learn something. Oh, and take BB with you. You could both do with a lesson in humility.
Greensborough Growler @ #836 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 5:13 pm
You are guaranteed that there is an end to it.
Some guy from the Australian Rice Growers Association – or some such high-sounding name, claimed last week on local radio, that there will be a shortage of rice on Oz supermarket shelves due to poor harvest, drought, bushfire, shortage of imported rice and about 20 other factors. Claimed this will not be fixed until sometime next year. Haven’t clue whether he was talking the market up, being a Jonah or just mischief-making. However this is at odds with the puffed up boast some weeks ago that “Australia produces enough food to feed 7o million people” from some other agriguru when the topic of supply chains was under scrutiny.
The “feed 7o million people stuff” sounds good, but we can only eat a certain amount of the tons of wheat produced.
Meanwhile tinned peaches from South African, selling a about $2 a can, in Woolies certainly is a test for the “Put Australia First” mob when it comes to a commonplace item such as this……especially when the Oz comparative item was about $3.20….
Who appointed you moral arbiter GG? The mortgage brokers association?
https://www.eternitynews.com.au/australia/i-came-back-to-jesus-on-my-first-day-in-jail/
A poignant report about the dangers of Labor politics. Read what it did to this poor young man.
He should have been guided by Mark 8:36 but if you join the NSW Right You leave your moral compass at the door
“However this is at odds with the puffed up boast some weeks ago that…”
No it isn’t.
True OC, but the personal destruction and devastation left in the wake of the Labor corruption is sad to see.
I am sure like me you are convinced the position description reform for the General Secretary position will cure it all.
Oakeshott Country
Perhaps he should have noticed the sign above the door at the entrance to NSW Labor Right HQ “Abandon hope all ye who enter here”
With all this talk about the NSW Right lets not forget the Victorian Right. Bill Shortens’ EBAs would have him well entrenched in the NSW hall of fame. Let’s pay the man the respect he deserves.
With the restrictions eased in Queensland, we had a stunning return to form in the trailer park tonight, with discourse ranging from astrology, well, to astrology.
nath @ #849 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 6:42 pm
The Victorian right are far more proficient and less reckless in their exploits than the NSW right.