Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings

A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the party leader should be chosen.

With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:

• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.

• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.

• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings”

Comments Page 18 of 27
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  1. No I don’t think its enough. I agree with you that a truth and reconciliation commission is required. The Central Coast session should be scheduled for at least a week

  2. Bribie beach still closed to 4WD’s and people were generally good about social distancing. Nice early morning walk on Woorim beach followed by a drive to Toorbul.

  3. Lane Cove National Park was starting to look normal today. There were lots of people about. In spite of the cool, overcast weather, there were picnicking groups. People were sitting at picnic tables. The kids’ playground was open. The Cafe was open with people at the tables (not me).

  4. Things here went back to normal a couple of weeks ago, even though restrictions haven’t technically eased yet. Woolworths has abandoned the hand sanitiser at the front doors and they are no longer policing numbers going into the shop.

    Movement of people however returned to normal after easter. It’s like that long weekend was some kind of psychological hurdle people felt they needed to get past before they felt safe to move around more freely.

  6. Lars Von Trier @ #848 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 6:31 pm

    True OC, but the personal destruction and devastation left in the wake of the Labor corruption is sad to see.

    I am sure like me you are convinced the position description reform for the General Secretary position will cure it all.

    You really are a sad individual with your repetitive nonsense.

  8. Oakeshott Country @ #846 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    He should have been guided by Mark 8:36 but if you join the NSW Right You leave your moral compass at the door

    Do you even know anyone in the NSW Labor Party that isn’t 80 in the shade like you, reliving their glory days and bitter enmities from days gone by?

  10. The Mundo sayeth thus:

    ‘Literally millions out of work, and Morrison’s wealthy donors are already demanding cheap foreign (and ununionised) labour be allowed onto Australian building sites. ‘

    There you go again with the imported American crap. Wealthy donors are a huge problem in America, but in Australia we have:
    – that tosser Palmer (who interfered in an election rather than donating to anyone)
    – Mr Turnbull (the holder of a “temporary position” who made a failed attempt to secure the support of his party by donating to it; an episode that tends to demonstrate that parties are not for sale, rather than that they are)
    – That Tasmanian guy who donated to the Geeens
    None of which provides evidence of any sort of donor-donee corruption such as is routine in America. The reason that (for example) the Liberal Party supports the mining industry (and all the various industries they preference in policy) is that they believe that Australia’s interests align with the interests of those industries; they are wrong about this, but that is because they are just not very smart, rather than being institutionally corrupt (the private activities of various Ministers are a different matter – the alleged corruption here is the pursuit of the private interests of those responsible, not bribery paid by donors).

    If one screams corruption when in fact one faces stupidity, one has taken one’s eyes off the ball, and is almost bound to lose. If one fights an American political battle from Australia as some sort of “deputy sheriff” of one of the American parties, one will lose embarrassingly, as one should.

  11. alfred

    Interesting video here on a bunch of topics.
    Talking about various methods to help with contact tracing.
    Also includes a clip from that video you mentioned.
    Also includes a shot of that paper showing the layout of that restaurant where one diner infected people at multiple tables. And the paper that talks about the outbreak in a call center.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGA5AJv1UHs

  12. Mark Jacka
    @themarkjacka

    FFS!

    @abcnews
    just heard two “Employers” complaining that now they’ve re-opened it is hard to get their Employees who are on JobKeeper back to work.

    Let me guess the
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    LNP narrative for the upcoming week.

    JOBKEEPER WELFARE BLUDGERS, time to roll it back.

  13. E. G. Theodore

    Oh, good, all those donors and maaates getting looked after is just a coincidence after all. what a relief. Bonus, they are not ‘wealthy’ either.

  14. damned right Cud Chewer. i thought of that research you posted last night about how it passes through air cond. to non-contiguous tables in restaurant settings.

    we swung by the local supamart at 6:00pm on the way back from cat food (ok). it was chaotic. browns’ cows straying everywhere. nil effort by others to social distance, 100% my effort, evasion. 5 minutes & i was out of there. ms kiewa stayed away, v. not happy. back to strictly 8:00am shopping, the experiment’s data are in. gladys & scottie are sending the wrong messages. people are acting as if its all over when its not. a case of give ’em an inch & they take a mile.

    how ’bout this:-
    “‘Deeply worrying’: 92% of Australians don’t know the difference between viral and bacterial infections”
    https://theconversation.com/deeply-worrying-92-of-australians-dont-know-the-difference-between-viral-and-bacterial-infections-138619
    -a.v.

  16. I like to think the Adam McCormick story is a cautionary tale and it suggests even the worst Labor operatives can find redemption. Perhaps not with the Lord but still do something useful with their lives.

    I think your right nath and rex it is a mistake to think the problem is limited to nsw, its systemic and national.

  18. Seen in the dead tree version of the Newcastle Herald (I can’t seem to find it online)
    An opinion piece by Pat Conroy advocating for Newcastle to go back into producing steel using hydrogen.

  19. Lars Von Trier @ #868 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 8:19 pm

    I like to think the Adam McCormick story is a cautionary tale and it suggests even the worst Labor operatives can find redemption. Perhaps not with the Lord but still do something useful with their lives.

    I think your right nath and rex it is a mistake to think the problem is limited to nsw, its systemic and national.

    When you have to find common cause with renowned Labor Haters, nath and Rex Douglas, you really should quit while you’re behind.

    Anyway, I’ve wasted enough time on a non-entity like you for one night.

  20. Cud Chewer @ #870 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 8:23 pm

    Seen in the dead tree version of the Newcastle Herald (I can’t seem to find it online)
    An opinion piece by Pat Conroy advocating for Newcastle to go back into producing steel using hydrogen.

    He’s a very smart young man. However, if you were to believe the blatherings of Oakeshott Country, LvT, nath and Rex Douglas, you’d think that Labor were even worse than Donald Trump and the Republican Party in America! 😆

  23. the experiment’s data are in. gladys & scottie are sending the wrong messages. people are acting as if its all over when its not. a case of give ’em an inch & they take a mile.

    To which you can add that opening up non-essential businesses also adds to the wrong impression being given.

  24. For those who are interested here is Pat Conroy’s work history (as per his Parliament profile) before election:

    Qualifications and occupation before entering Federal Parliament
    BEc(Hons) (University of Sydney).
    Customer service assistant, Coles 1995-2000.
    Electorate officer to the Hon. Anthony Albanese MP 2000.
    Industrial/Policy Organiser, Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union, Forestry Division, NSW Branch 2000-02.
    Policy Adviser to Senator George Campbell 2002-04.
    National Economist, Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union 2004-08.
    Principal Policy Adviser to the Hon. GI Combet, AM, MP 2008-11.
    Deputy Chief of Staff to the Hon. GI Combet, AM, MP 2011-13.

  26. Blobbit @ #874 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 8:32 pm

    https://mobile.twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1261052353773363200

    May be of interest to some – good news on Covid19 in terms of immune response.

    “Our new paper rapidly studied T cell + antibody immune responses in average COVID-19 cases. This is good news in multiple ways, including coronavirus vaccines”

    Highlights
    •
    Measuring immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is key for understanding COVID19 and vaccine development
    •
    Epitope pools detect CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in 100 and 70% of convalescent COVID patients
    •
    T cell responses are focused not only on spike but also on M, N and other ORFs
    •
    T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 epitopes is also detected in non-exposed individuals
    Summary
    Understanding adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is important for vaccine development, interpreting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis, and calibration of pandemic control measures. Using HLA class I and II predicted peptide ‘megapools’, circulating SARS-CoV-2−specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells were identified in ∼70% and 100% of COVID-19 convalescent patients, respectively. CD4+ T cell responses to spike, the main target of most vaccine efforts, were robust and correlated with the magnitude of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA titers. The M, spike and N proteins each accounted for 11-27% of the total CD4+ response, with additional responses commonly targeting nsp3, nsp4, ORF3a and ORF8, among others. For CD8+ T cells, spike and M were recognized, with at least eight SARS-CoV-2 ORFs targeted. Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.

  27. Thanks for the summary Cat – my poor understanding of all that is that the immune system seems to respond fairly normally to Covid19, so one less thing to worry about.

  29. C@t

    Whenever I need a dash of “bitter and twisted” to add to any cocktail, I only need to look for certain posters here.. 🙂

  31. Cud Chewer says:
    Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:56 pm
    a v

    Regarding Supreme Court..

    My brain hurts!!
    ____________________
    Have you consulted a medical professional ?

  33. Blobbit @ #877 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 8:48 pm

    Thanks for the summary Cat – my poor understanding of all that is that the immune system seems to respond fairly normally to Covid19, so one less thing to worry about.

    Yes, this is the money quote:

    Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.

    I guess that’s why we are being encouraged to get our flu shots.

    From that read I would also find support for my original contention that Boris Johnson was treated with Convalescent Plasma.

  34. State Department Inspector General Steve Linick was fired Friday in a late-night ouster that drew condemnations from Democrats, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi warning of an acceleration in a “dangerous pattern of retaliation” against federal watchdogs.

    Linick, a 2013 Obama appointee who has criticized department leadership for alleged retribution toward staffers, will be replaced by Ambassador Stephen J. Akard, a State Department spokesperson confirmed Friday. It was the latest in a string of weekend removals of oversight officials who have clashed with the Trump administration.

    Rep. Eliot L. Engel (D.-N.Y.), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, claimed the State Inspector General was fired after opening an investigation into Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and said the timing suggested “an unlawful act of retaliation.” The State Department did not explain Linick’s removal or address criticism, and the White House did not immediately respond to an inquiry Friday night.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/16/state-department-inspector-general-fired-democrats-decry-dangerous-pattern-retaliation/

  35. Oh, and take BB with you. You could both do with a lesson in humility.

    You have a severe attitude problem P1.

    In response to my constructive criticism of the way you and your partner(?) handled your recent dole application, the best you could do was fling a mouthful of abuse back at me.

    Let me tell you, Centrelink HATES accountants. If you have a company or corporate structure, a business or some kind of investment-based income (say, a B&B), or assets of any kind (beyond stock standards: car, furniture etc.) they will put you through the wringers trying to trip you up on your application. Anyone coming even near to these criteria is seen as a smarty who’s trying to scam it.

    I told you about the account with $20 in it that my wife had. It took Centrelink 18 months to let on they were suspicious about it. They couldn’t see why you’d have a non-interest bearing account that had only one transaction attached to it: the initial seed deposit if $20, twenty years before. They were pretty sure they’d uncovered a real smartarse. They wanted official letters from the Bank, tax file numbers, statements going back 5 years (all blank pages except for one entry: “BALANCE $20”).

    In the end, after visiting Tuncurry Centrelink in the morning, Her Indoors closed the account, got a letter from ANZ saying so, spent the money on a light lunch for her and her girlfriend, went back to Centrelink with receipts totalling $19 and some cents, and sorted out 18 months of shit in 5 minutes.

    I’m here to tell you Centrelink are not trying to “break you” (as you put it). They just don’t like smarties. And, whether it’s true or not, for better or worse, something related to your application sets you out as one.

    They won’t tell you what it is. You’ll have to figure that out for yourself. Anything to do with accountants, non-PAYE employment (sole trader, artisan, work from home self-employment – especially if you’re claiming tax deductions on your own home), late tax returns… anything irregular at all… will attract their attention.

    The logic goes like this: if you can afford an accountant, you’re not broke. If you have assets: why haven’t you sold them? Check also that any assets you do have, on paper, are not referred back to some earlier, happier time when you were flush. Centrelink NEVER remove assets from some earlier register of assets you may have lodged with them (I’m just for- instancing here) and since forgotten, even years down the track, unless you tell them to, with proof they no longer exist.

    For example, they had me down in 2018 for half a million dollars in cash from the sale of a business fifteen years previously in 2003. I just hadn’t told them I’d converted it into a family home (a generally exempt asset), as soon as it came in. It literally didn’t occur to me. I’d applied for the dole once, but never took it up as my financial circumstances improved. But I HAD submitted an assets register, before walking away fro Centrelink.

    But, as far as Centrelink was concerned, I still had the money somewhere, and by God they were going to uncover where it was. They’d even calculated interest on it… at 10%! No wonder I couldn’t get a Health Card. I was rich (in Centrelink’s eyes)!

    It took them 6 months, and a dozen visits to their office to sort what was the hold-up: phantom wealth, long gone… but not from their computer.

    Centrelink are dealing with many desperately poor people. These “clients” don’t have accountants, investment properties, assets or income. Some have no money, no relatives, no insurance payouts, no nothing- not even food to eat. And Centrelink still put THEM through the wringer!

    My advice is to divest yourself if non-deductible assets, sell the second car, get rid of the cirpirate/sole-trader structure, and the negatively geared B&B and think like a Centrelink assessor.

    Until you do, your life will be one of disappointment and chronic ire.

    It’s the best advice I can give you.

  36. ———
    Boris Johnson was treated with Convalescent Plasma
    ———
    Is that a new fancy term for a cow dung poultice?

  38. “the experiment’s data are in. gladys & scottie are sending the wrong messages. people are acting as if its all over when its not. a case of give ’em an inch & they take a mile.”

    It’s not the messaging it’s the reality. There are basically no cases and so people don’t see the point of the more aggressive restrictions.

    You can’t scare people indefinitely or demand needless sacrifice.

  39. Bushfire Bill @ #885 Saturday, May 16th, 2020 – 9:19 pm

    It’s the best advice I can give you.

    Honest to goodness, what bollocks you do spout!

    Your advice is worthless, because it is based on a lack of understanding of both the current Centrelink processes and of our situation. You apparently have not had any significant dealings with Centrelink recently. We have – for bushfire relief and for Covid-19 relief for myself, my partner and our kids.

    We are in fact following to the letter the advice given to us by both our local MP and Centrelink themselves, who (after we explained our situation to them in detail) assured us that we should be able to claim either JobKeeper or JobSeeker, and that we should apply for both and let Centrelink sort out which one was most appropriate.

    I repreat – this is Centrelink’s own advice in the current situation relating to Covid-19. This is not a normal application for NewStart benefits, which is apparently what you are familiar with.

    As for having an accountant, when Centrelink asks you for a depreciation schedule of all the assets associated with your business for the previous financial year, and a profit and loss statement for both the current financial year and the previous financial year so they can compare them, then you may be able to generate this off the top of your head. We have to use an accountant. Similarly for the other dozen or so similarly detailed documents that Centrelink requested.

    We are merely following the application process, and are not yet sure why we have been deemed not eligible – we should be eligible. That it is due to our bushfire insurance payout is only our best guess, because that claim took so long to process that Covid-19 arrived before we had a chance to spend it fixing up the damage we had suffered. We will lodge an appeal after we receive the (paper) letter that they have apparently sent us. Which, based on past experience, should arrive here in a couple of weeks or so if we are lucky.

    You should stick to subjects you actually know something about.

  40. That is a shocking work history from Pat Conroy. Only real job was the one at Coles. No wonder the ALP are struggling to get thier message accross.

  41. Taylormade
    says:
    Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 9:55 pm
    That is a shocking work history from Pat Conroy. Only real job was the one at Coles. No wonder the ALP are struggling to get thier message accross.
    ______________
    At least he did work at Coles. There’s a lot worse than that.

  42. That is a shocking work history from Pat Conroy. Only real job was the one at Coles. No wonder the ALP are struggling to get thier message accross.

    As opposed to the hard, grinding, salt-of-the-earth work history of the lawyers, marketers and merchant bankers in the Coalition ranks.

  44. Not that the elitism is warranted because work is work, and just because it doesn’t fit some imaginary ideal, it doesn’t make it less valid.

    And no, I don’t give a shit about criticism of Conroy, I am just calling out the farcical hypocrisy of complaining that Labor have MPs that haven’t got a resume full of “real jobs” coming from a supporter of the Coalition (or indeed, pretty much any party in Australian politics)

  46. What’s with the shade being thrown at Pat Conroy? Anyone who has seen him speak in person would know he is articulate and funny – and committed to social justice. A fine representative for the Newcastle area.

  47. nath, yes there is worse than graduating from Coles, much worse.

    Like the conga line graduating from the IPA and YoungLibs infesting the ranks of the Federal Liberal Party. Don’t get me started on the banjo players.

  48. “Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.”

    I wonder if this in part explains the range in responses. Incidentally, the UK vaccine mentioned in that SBS article is based on a weakened version of a common cold virus with proteins from SARS-2 spliced in.

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