Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling

Two new polls suggest support for the federal government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis is still on the rise.

I’ll be taking part in the Political Geekfest videocast through Zoom with Peter Lewis of Essential Research and Katharine Murphy of the Guardian Australia at 1pm AEST today, which you can register for here. The subject of discussion will be this:

• The Guardian reports on another Essential Research poll focusing mostly on coronavirus, which would appear to be a weekly thing at least for the time being. The latest poll finds 59% rating the government’s response as about right, up from 46% last week and 39% in the two previous weekly polls; 13% rating it an overreaction, continuing its downward trajectory from 33% to 18% to 17%; and 29% rating it an underreaction, which bounced around over the first three weeks from 28% to 43% to 37%. Respondents were also asked to rate their state governments’ reactions, though with sample sizes too small to be of that much use at the individual level: the combined responses for very good and quite good were at 56% for New South Wales, 76% for Victoria, 52% for Queensland, 79% for Western Australia and 72% for South Australia. The poll also records a surprisingly high level of general morale, producing an average 6.7 rating on a scale of one to ten, unchanged from May last year. The full report should be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.

• Also apparently a weekly thing is Roy Morgan’s coronavirus polling, which is being conducted online and not by SMS as I previously assumed – indeed, I believe this is the first online polling Morgan has ever published. Last week’s tranche showed a sharp rise in approval of the government’s handling of the matter from a week previous, with 21% strongly agreeing the government was handling the matter well (up twelve), 44% less strongly agreeing (up ten), 23% disagreeing (down ten) and 6% strongly disagreeing (down ten). Respondents had also become more optimistic since the previous week (59% saying the worst was yet to come, down 26 points, 33% saying the situation would remain the same, up 22 points, and 8% expecting things to improve, up four), and, contra Essential, slightly more inclined to consider the threat was being exaggerated (up five points to 20%, with disagreement down six to 75%). The poll was conducted last weekend from a sample of 987.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling”

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  1. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 3:37 pm

    beguiledagain
    I might be incorrect but i think you wrote that you were a journalist and if that is the case then you might understand the importance of trying to understand the logic of a comment from a politician or someone else.
    ——————————————————————-

    I also understand that one of the primary roles of a journalist is to act as a bullshit detector and not merely as a stenographer.

    I don’t see any need to look for logic or understanding of bullshit coming from Trump and Morrison except to call it for what it is.

    But your post?

    “Considering the WHO performance I understand the logic in cutting funding to…. what is already a compromised organisation.”

    This represents more than half of your comment. I somehow got the idea that you weren’t too impressed with the performance of the WHO which you described as “a compromised organization.”

    I am happy to acknowledge that you support the work of the WHO and oppose cutting its funding.

  3. Cud
    “Comment: Recessions have negative effects on well being of people
    The best way to avoid a long lived recession is to eliminate the virus and bring back certainty.”

    Yes the idea that there is a choice between the economy and people’s lives in Covid 19 policy has to be exposed as a dangerous fiction. The real choice is between Covid19 laxity with a high death toll and long term economic damage, or Covid 19 rapid lockdown and elimination with a low death toll and shorter term economic damage.

  4. It seems fairly certain that several countries are going to ease their some their restrictions within the next month or so. It will be apparent within 2-3 weeks of this whether it was too soon, or which easings have proven OK. We are already in a better position than those proposing these moves, so if we can wait 4-6 weeks from now, we should be able to pick any easings which seem to have minimal or no impact and implement these carefully.
    The regions with very few cases are already moving to wider testing, and this would be expected to widen further over the next 2-3 weeks

  5. “ And to think I get accused of idealism! You would have a better chance of getting a Liberal government to ban corruption, err, corporate donations.”

    I absolutely don’t expect them to agree. Which is the point. What are they trying to hide?

    I really hope Labor goes hard about this. Set them up with ‘reasonable’ suggestions – which they can’t but reject – then pile in.

    Site the problems with the last enquiry that Walker, SC ran – SA Royal Commission into the Murray-Darling when NSW and Federal folk simply told him to GGF when he called on them to give evidence – as the precedent as to why it must be a combined Fed-State inquiry with a power to ‘get to the bottom’ and where Ministers are accountable.

    Blow the whole charade up politically.

    I’m sure Mundo would approve 😉

  6. Its now Wednesday.
    No sign of a post-Easter surge in cases.
    The overall curve Australia wide is still consistent with a bell curve with a long tail.
    Meaning, there’s no reason to believe that cases won’t continue to fall next week.

  7. CC
    “Meaning, there’s no reason to believe that cases won’t continue to fall next week.”

    I don’t necessarily disagree. But we need to expand testing.

  8. Cud

    Thanks.

    I do disagree with you.
    Our country has always been about managing the spread not elimination.

    The whole idea was not to overload ICU departments so we have the resources to manage it. The virus is here. Our trade off decision is to go to a new normal after the population is infected. Not to isolate ourself from the world.

    Some experts have argued for effective elimination. The ones you are citing. I just don’t think we will do that. We want to continue people to people connection with China.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1102 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 4:23 pm

    “ And to think I get accused of idealism! You would have a better chance of getting a Liberal government to ban corruption, err, corporate donations.”

    I absolutely don’t expect them to agree. Which is the point. What are they trying to hide?

    I really hope Labor goes hard about this. Set them up with ‘reasonable’ suggestions – which they can’t but reject – then pile in.

    Site the problems with the last enquiry that Walker, SC ran – SA Royal Commission into the Murray-Darling when NSW and Federal folk simply told him to GGF when he called on them to give evidence – as the precedent as to why it must be a combined Fed-State inquiry with a power to ‘get to the bottom’ and where Ministers are accountable.

    Blow the whole charade up politically.

    I’m sure Mundo would approve 😉

    And who within the Labor party room has the political skill and want to effectively “Blow the whole charade up” ..?

  10. Beguiledagain
    Thanks and while its easy to dismiss Trump and Morrison but for the time being they hold power.

    The WHO is only compromised in the sense it wanted to keep a good relationship with China which is understandable just as they do with other countries. When history is written the WHO’s role will probably be seen as only a small part and if the likes of Trump were honest then they would admit that viruses happen and ultimately he and other leaders (Morrison) were reactive rather than proactive and because of that we see many people underestimating the seriousness of the situation. The WHO can point out that while is it being criticised for taking it slowly when the same political leaders take warnings of climate change with a grain of salt.

  11. “ And who within the Labor party room has the political skill and want to effectively “Blow the whole charade up” ..?”

    We shall see … bwhaha …

  12. “I don’t necessarily disagree. But we need to expand testing.”

    WA testing numbers falling at the moment. Not sure if it’s because of a lack of tests taken over Easter, or if it just reflects the lack of people who have any symptoms.

    (Testing in WA now requires only a single symptom)

  13. meher baba @ #1070 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 3:39 pm

    guytaur: re your rant at me (although thanks for the flattering statement that I “seem rational”)

    If you haven’t yet read this article, you would do well to do so.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-lives-economy-lockdown-left-right

    And I thought this was a very reasonable presentation of the issue as well, particularly as it comes from someone with whom I normally strongly disagree.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/15/how-long-the-lockdown-lasts-is-not-just-a-medical-question-its-a-democratic-one

    It’s easy for people who are strongly partisan about politics – either from a right or left perspective – to break all issues down into a fight between the goodies and baddies. One of the tragedies of our global response to climate change has been that many right wing people who would normally be quite rational about scientific questions have decided that, because they can’t stand the environmental movement, climate change must be a load of crap.

    Contrary to the simplistic goodies vs baddies view, I don’t think deciding an exit strategy will ever simply be about making a clear choice between an “economy” and “saving lives” (eg, as in that old science fiction story in which a couple is given the opportunity by a mysterious stranger to press a button and receiving a million dollars, but someone they don’t know will die).

    It’s ultimately going to be about how we confront the obvious fact that we can’t all stay cooped up in our houses indefinitely. Restrictions will have to start to be lifted at some point and, when that happens, there will inevitably be people arguing that it’s too soon. But we don’t have the luxury of being able to completely trash the world economy while we wait for signs of a total elimination of the virus that might never come.

    NZ seems to have a plan of first eliminating the virus and then cutting itself off for the rest of the world for some extended time: possibly until an effective vaccine is developed (which could of course be never). But, as a country which depends extensively on exports to maintain their standard of living, they are going to have to face the issue that, if you want to continue to sell things to other countries, you are probalby going to need to send significant numbers of your people to those countries to secure deals, sustain relationships, etc. Interesting to see how they go with that.

    I see that mb hasn’t entered the 20th century yet. “need to send significant numbers of people to those countires to secure deals, sustain relationships etc.” Maybe before the telegram and telephone were invented. But, in the current circumstances everyone can get by with videoconferencing and online transactions. And if it really, really, really needs to be in person then it would involve being quarantined on return to NZ.

    And I am unaware of any confirmed cases from contaminated goods. So physical trade of goods can continue.

  15. Kakaru

    The fewer cases, the more testing resources we should re-commit to random sampling and blanket testing specific groups.

  18. Clem Attlee: there are many futile things one can do in this world, but surely one of the most futile is to launch a searing ad hominem attack on an anonymous poster on a blog.

  20. “we should re-commit to random sampling”

    Compulsory? So states governments have that power?

    (FWIW now the resources are becoming available I think expanded sampling would be good)

  21. CC
    “The fewer cases, the more testing resources we should re-commit to random sampling and blanket testing specific groups.”

    Agreed. Though with the caveat that random sampling would have to be on a monumental scale in order for it to be informative.

  23. [ but at the moment you can only be sorry we did not do the same when we had the chance]

    No it is not compulsory to hold that view.

  24. It’s Time: I’m not sure I’ve even fully entered the 20th century yet: the 18th and 19th centuries are my centuries of choice for art, literature and music (although I can’t entirely deny the appeal of the glorious country and western genre: before it got stuffed up in the 1990s). I think I even prefer 19th century politics.

    But one thing I do know a little bit about is doing business with China and other Asian countries. And i know that interpersonal contacts are not just desirable, but essential. Online engagement just won’t cut it.

  27. DM @ #1092 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 4:07 pm

    FWIW, I agree with Guytaur’s view which is similar to Stephen Duckett’s effective elimination.

    Absolute elimination may never be achieved – have we eliminated the virus if we have zero cases for x weeks and then a plane load of Australians fly in from OS and some test positive?

    EDIT: Grammar

    You have if you quarantine the passengers and test them before releasing them into the community.

  30. Already out date it seems, from 9th April
    Carbon Brief report on carbon emissions via Reneweconomy

    Covid19 causes largest ever reduction in carbon emissions report. With an extensive discussion of the problems with the preliminary data and issues around calculating changes in GDP and carbon intensity.

    Nevertheless covid19 appears to be like no event in the world over the last 120 years, even before the most current data is clear.

    Still below the requirements for keeping CO2 levels low enough to keep under 1.5C warming. Particularly depending upon what sort of a mess humans keep up with after this.

    Analysis: Coronavirus set to cause largest ever annual fall in CO2 emissions
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions

  31. It’s Time.

    It’s all management. That’s why I talked about propaganda.
    Baba is very good. As is the article he cites.

    Using that you can argue stopping the missile hitting you means you just go about your business as odds are it’s not going to hit you. Just someone else.

    Science is science. Facts are facts. You can have your opinion on how to respond and that’s it.

  34. guytaur @ #1097 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 4:14 pm

    CC

    Then you need to explain in layman terms what you mean.

    We keep out infections of foot and mouth disease in Australia through quarantine.

    Otherwise the virus is here and you argue for the elimination of the spread. I don’t see you advocating killing people who have survived but have a positive result to the disease.

    Those comments lead me to believe you’re out of your depth on this topic. People who have recovered fron the illness almost certainly have no more virus in their system. All they have is the antibodies which helped to kill the virus off and which can be found in antibody tests.

  35. Tim Wilson slaps down the his former IPA… (yes I know that reads weird)

    Liberal MP Tim Wilson is asked whether he’s like to see social distancing rules to be eased.

    Before he was in parliament, Wilson was a long time Institute of Public Affairs policy director. You may be aware that IPA has been leading calls for the government to reopen the economy, despite warnings from public health officials that this would lead to more deaths.

    “Well I think it’s easy to make comment from the sidelines, when you have a lot of evidence and data before you addressing the full extent of the challenges, and they’re not always specific to one community,” Wilson says.

    “That’s what the states are doing, the federal government doing, working constructively together. None of us are enjoying this, you’re not enjoying it, I’m not enjoying it, it’s necessary to protect the health, lives, and wellbeing of many Australians.

    “We also have to consider the full scale of what happens if we repeal them, if we get a second wave, then we’re forced back into the same situation again. My objective and my hope, I guess, and certainly I expect the prime minister and the Premiers’ objectives is to do this right, once, so we don’t have to repeat it.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/apr/15/australia-coronavirus-live-news-economy-politics-nsw-victoria-queensland-latest-updates

  36. @TomMcIlroy
    ·
    8m
    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has announced former Tasmanian premier Will Hodgman will be the inaugural Chair of the $540m Australian Business Growth Fund

  37. “They can randomly breath-test you, so yes?”

    No idea. I guess RBT needs specific legislation. Would that be needed for compulsory testing?

    (Also I meant to say “do states…” not “so states”. The latter sounds much more confrontational. I blame autocorrect)

  38. It’s Time

    I am no expert and never claimed to be.

    You will note I used explain in layman’s terms. Most of us are not experts in the field and are layman trying to understand.

    The management I talked about is to manage resources so the virus does not put people into ICU departments and especially not onto ventilators.
    That if that does happen we have the resources to cope.

    That means the virus in its dangerous phase to be eliminated. Thus mass testing so we know who has tested positive to the virus but survived.

    That’s why frontline people who have survived the virus are the best resource. You don’t have to worry about them being sick again.

    That’s why people worry about people not getting permanent immunity.

    That’s what I understand without being an expert.


  39. “We also have to consider the full scale of what happens if we repeal them, if we get a second wave, then we’re forced back into the same situation again. My objective and my hope, I guess, and certainly I expect the prime minister and the Premiers’ objectives is to do this right, once, so we don’t have to repeat it.”

    And with attitude there is only one options, aim for elimination with a serious pile on to any outbreaks. It is clearly what Tasmania is going for.

  40. “Agreed. Though with the caveat that random sampling would have to be on a monumental scale in order for it to be informative.”

    Given the amount of money spent already on a stimulus, I don’t think a billion spent on testing is of any consequence.


  41. meher baba says:
    Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 4:49 pm
    …

    But one thing I do know a little bit about is doing business with China and other Asian countries. And i know that interpersonal contacts are not just desirable, but essential. Online engagement just won’t cut it.

    Agreed, and it goes both ways, but it tough tittles not going to be happening for a long while. I would not be buying shares in an airline.

  42. “And the plane they flew in on. And the terminal they arrived at. And every bathroom between there and baggage. And…”

    And its going to be expensive to fly for a while.

    However consider this. Whether the policy is suppression or elimination, its the same outcome in terms of what we do at our borders.

  45. guytaur

    ” We want to continue people to people connection with China.”

    This is not an argument against elimination. We need to keep the same border controls and the same restrictions (including quarantine) whether its elimination or suppression.

    Please, think carefully.

  46. “But one thing I do know a little bit about is doing business with China and other Asian countries. And i know that interpersonal contacts are not just desirable, but essential. Online engagement just won’t cut it.”

    If its worth doing, its worth paying for the necessary border control measures, quarantine etc.

    And again, we need exact the same border controls whether we go for suppression or elimination. In BOTH scenarios , over 99 percent of the population will remain susceptible (until a vaccine).

  48. lizzie

    reasurer Josh Frydenberg has announced former Tasmanian premier Will Hodgman will be the inaugural Chair of the $540m Australian Business Growth Fund

    😆 Timing for Hodgman. Handed to him just as it is to become the Amazing Shrinking Fund.

  49. “Three of today’s cases are from cruise ships – Costa Victoria (2) and Artania (1) – one is a close contact of a confirmed case and one is still under investigation.”

    So maybe one community transmission for WA

  50. It’s Time @ #1243 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 5:14 pm

    You don’t think this has been done previously?

    Not with any adequate level of success at stopping something as contagious as C19 from infecting people in Australia?

    Nor does it seem practical if the goal is to reopen international travel. The costs for maintaining proper segregation between arrivals until you know for a fact that none of them were carriers, and for properly eliminating the risk of contamination via shared areas and aircraft must be ridiculous.

    One infected person passing through a terminal with five other planeloads of healthy people deplaning at the same time and it’s outbreak-city again.

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