I’ll be taking part in the Political Geekfest videocast through Zoom with Peter Lewis of Essential Research and Katharine Murphy of the Guardian Australia at 1pm AEST today, which you can register for here. The subject of discussion will be this:
• The Guardian reports on another Essential Research poll focusing mostly on coronavirus, which would appear to be a weekly thing at least for the time being. The latest poll finds 59% rating the government’s response as about right, up from 46% last week and 39% in the two previous weekly polls; 13% rating it an overreaction, continuing its downward trajectory from 33% to 18% to 17%; and 29% rating it an underreaction, which bounced around over the first three weeks from 28% to 43% to 37%. Respondents were also asked to rate their state governments’ reactions, though with sample sizes too small to be of that much use at the individual level: the combined responses for very good and quite good were at 56% for New South Wales, 76% for Victoria, 52% for Queensland, 79% for Western Australia and 72% for South Australia. The poll also records a surprisingly high level of general morale, producing an average 6.7 rating on a scale of one to ten, unchanged from May last year. The full report should be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.
• Also apparently a weekly thing is Roy Morgan’s coronavirus polling, which is being conducted online and not by SMS as I previously assumed – indeed, I believe this is the first online polling Morgan has ever published. Last week’s tranche showed a sharp rise in approval of the government’s handling of the matter from a week previous, with 21% strongly agreeing the government was handling the matter well (up twelve), 44% less strongly agreeing (up ten), 23% disagreeing (down ten) and 6% strongly disagreeing (down ten). Respondents had also become more optimistic since the previous week (59% saying the worst was yet to come, down 26 points, 33% saying the situation would remain the same, up 22 points, and 8% expecting things to improve, up four), and, contra Essential, slightly more inclined to consider the threat was being exaggerated (up five points to 20%, with disagreement down six to 75%). The poll was conducted last weekend from a sample of 987.
1,397 comments on “Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling”
The SMH has, as is usual, taken parts of a Washington Post article and given it a “subtle” bit of rewriting.
Here’s the article they borrowed from.
I hope all the PB ‘Jeremy Corbyn is an AntiSemite’ keyboard warriors hang their heads in shame today.
From the previous thread:
Ray (UK) (Block)
Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 5:05 am
Some ‘interesting’ developments out of UK Labour, involving Tom Watson and others, and a flurry of twitter activity complete with ‘leaks’
One allegation is that Watson manipulated the NEC inquiry into Ken Livingstone to extend his suspension for 12 months – when Corbyn was pushing for expulsion – to drag out the anti-semitism furore to damage Labour and undermine Corbyn
And a general campaign in the background – in the run up to the 2017 election – to undermine Corbyn from within
As a Labour member I’m disgusted with it
So Ken Livingstone was suspended for comments that offended Jewish people
Tom Watson delayed the expulsion to make Corbyn look bad & make Corbyn look Anti-Semitic
In other words Tom Watson used Jewish people as a football to hit Corbyn with
Mike (one of those Trots)
This is the most damning quote I’ve found thus far: Emilie Oldknow saying she had Tom Watson delay the expulsion of Ken Livingston to embarrass Jeremy Corbyn, despite his demanding a resolution.
Show this thread
You were all so bloody sanctimonious and rained ire down upon those of us wanting to give Jeremy Corbyn at least the chance to explain his side of the story.
I’m looking at you, briefly.
But, of course, also at the usual sanctimonious poseurs.
“He’s been fretting about Fauci for a while,” a source said of President Trump’s focus on the popular public health expert, summing up Trump’s comments about the doctor as, “why isn’t Fauci saying nice things about me?”
‘God help us’: Americans horrified after Trump names Jared and Ivanka to his ‘Council to Re-open America’
President Donald Trump on Monday announced his picks for his “Council to Re-open America” that will make recommendations on when to get Americans back to work during the coronavirus pandemic.
However, many Twitter users were horrified to see that Trump had appointed daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner to the council, as the two have no experience in public health and are only qualified to serve due to their relationship with the president.
Dr. Dena GraysonVerified account @DrDenaGrayson
OMG…@realDonaldTrump’s “dream team” that’s advising on how/when to re-open America is a TOTAL nightmare.
Not. A. Single. Doctor. Or. Scientist.
Many THOUSANDS of Americans are DYING from this deadly #coronavirus, and this motley crew is supposed to “save” us
I wonder if New York could save Trump’s ‘corona arse’ .They have had 10,000 deaths 50% of the US total. De Blasio and Cuomo are both Democrats.Not hard to imagine a Trump/Fox “look how bad things were where Democrats were in charge” type campaign. Remember ‘reality’ and ‘truth’ is so out of fashion these days.
So how come Trump and his band of clowns in the clown car with him at the top of the White House tree, can decide when to ‘re-open America’ but it’s up to the Governors to do all the heavy lifting wrt fighting the COVID-19 virus?
Anyway, we all know Ken and Barbie, sorry, Jarrad and Ivanka, will open America too soon and what they’ll end up with is Coronavirus all over their faces and a death-led Recession in America.
So Caligula still insisting on giving jobs to Incitatus.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Malcolm Farr unpicks the latest Essential poll.
Shane Wright tells us that Treasury modelling reveals the jobless rate is on track for 10 per cent, but the modelling reveals it would have been much worse if not for the $130 billion JobKeeper program.
Idiot Trump has retweeted a call to fire his top infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci, amid mounting criticism of the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic.
This is why the idiot is shitty.
The poor bear the burden of the coronavirus downturn, but inequality is not inevitable in Australia writes Andrew Leigh.
Peter Hartcher describes Chinese authorities’ latest wildlife trade outrage as mindbogglingly reckless.
The editorial in the Canberra Times says that now is not the time to take the foot off the brake.
The Australian tells us that Morrison has signalled his preference for the national cabinet to become a permanent decision-making body to manage the federation, with West Australian Labor Premier Mark McGowan arguing the COVID-19 leaders’ model should replace the Council of Australian Governments.
We may have been too pessimistic about the success of lockdown. Now the health experts should take charge of a phased ending to social and economic restrictions, writes Andrew Mohl in the AFR.
Australia needs to implement systemic tax reform as part of the country’s transition out of the coronavirus, and the current system risks younger Australians bearing the brunt of the government’s economic response, according to tax expert Robert Breunig.
Deputy Commissioner Shane Patton has urged Victoria Police to issue fines for only the most blatant and deliberate breaches of the state’s lockdown regulations. He is concerned that confidence in the police is being eroded.
Karen Maley reports that the RBA is warning of risks lurking in the residential property market as rising unemployment triggers a rise in people falling behind on their home loan repayments
Co-operating with others in the virus fight is Beijing’s chance to resolve the strategic dilemmas it faces as a rising power writes Keyu Jin.
The huge expansion of government spending must be subject to strict value for money assessment. The alternative will be brutal political fights to hang on to the new largesse. It’s Peter Hendy of course!
Paul Bongiorno thinks the government stumbled at the last hurdle.
Alexandra Smith reports that a crew member serving food is likely to be the source of the coronavirus that spread through the Ruby Princess.
Tony Wright tells us that a justified Wayne Swan has given blessing to Frydenberg’s huge stimulus.
Norm Abjorensen declares that decades of shrinking government have left it weakened in the COVID-19 fight. It’s difficult to disagree.
Eradicating the virus completely while enforcing strict border controls is the best way to restore economic activity write John Daley and Stephen Duckett.
The SMH editorial reckons that COVID-19 is a bad reason to subsidise local manufacturing.
The Australian economy won’t recover from the coronavirus downturn until NSW and Victoria, and Sydney and Melbourne, get moving writes Shane Wright.
Reuters looks closely at the oil deal, saying it is a short-term band aid, but offers long-term hope.
Carrie Fellner reports that a NSW bureaucrat (in the Planning Department of all places) sacked by the same superior he complained about three days earlier escalated the matter to the Premier’s office, which then failed to respond to him for a year due to an “administrative error”.
Scientists are inspecting sewage for traces of coronavirus with hopes it could be a rapid way to detect outbreaks. Max Koslowski tells us how researchers at the Australian National University hope to replicate results out of the Netherlands that found coronavirus traces in sewage long before cases of the virus were officially reported.
Why is it so hard to stop COVID-19 misinformation spreading on social media?
Michael Pascoe explains the ways in which out big debt can be managed. Some good, some bad.
Michelle Grattan writes that Greg Hunt has said the goal of the government’s suppression policy is the “effective eradication” of the coronavirus in Australia – while at the same time casting doubt on the possibility of eliminating it.
Isabelle Lane explains why we’re seeing some strange prices at supermarkets.
The epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic has shifted from Wuhan, China, to Italy and now to the USA writes Alan Austin. He says that the reality is that America’s response to the pandemic has been disastrous.
Ending native forest logging in Victoria immediately, rather than phasing it out by 2030 as the state government plans, would save taxpayers $192m over the next decade, according to an estimate by the state’s independent budget office.
A new set of guidelines will provide advice on who can wear medical masks and gowns and when, amid a global shortage intensified by stockpiling and misuse reports Aisha Dow.
Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn says there are early signs of a slowdown in the number of new cries for help from mortgage customers seeking to have their payments delayed.
In this moment of crisis, macho leaders are a weakness, not a strength opines Robin Dembroff.
Trump’s coronavirus tsar Peter Navarro defended the administration’s pandemic response on CBS on Sunday night, angrily challenging his hosts to show him how they had covered pandemic preparations under previous administrations.
The New York Times says Boeing was in deep trouble before the virus and wonders if it should it be rescued or not.
Linked without comment.
Glen Le Lievre
From the US
Meanwhile Bernie Sanders has endorsed Joe Biden.
That should make the Bernie bros happy!
I see that British Labour’s problems with anti-semitism run deeper than anyone had imagined possible.
Not only was there a significant and systemic problem with anti-semitism inside the Party which was only belatedly (and half-heartedly) addressed by Corbyn, Corbyn’s internal political enemies were hypocritically mobilizing their personal anti-semitism to damage Corbyn. As Ray (UK) states, totally disgusting behaviour by Watson et al.
Let’s hope that Starmer’s healing meeting with the leadership of a complete set of British national jewish organizations bears real fruit. In order for this to happen, Starmer will have to do what Corbyn never did do – act urgently with respect to the hundreds of complaints of anti-semitic behaviour inside British Labour. In order to expedite this, Starmer has promised to personally review each case.
Starmer also has the option of engaging with ex Labor MPs and members, many of them previously Labor for life, who fled the Party in open revolt at their personal anti-semitic treatment and at the failure of the Party under Corbyn to address anti-semitism adequately.
Which of course means he’ll be gone by the end of the week.
Okay, I have an update on the infographic I shared yesterday about surface persistence of the Coronavirus which specifically refers to COVID-19:
Evangelical Pastor Who Mocked Social Distance Rules Dies of Covid19
The New Deliverance Evangelistic Church pastor died from Covid19 after refusing to adhere to social distancing rules.
In his last known in-person service on March 22, Bishop Gerald O. Glenn got his congregation at Richmond’s New Deliverance Evangelistic Church to stand to prove how many were there despite warnings against gatherings of more than 10 people.
“I firmly believe that God is larger than this dreaded virus. You can quote me on that,” he said, repeating it a second time to claps, saying that “people are healed” in his church.
“I am essential,” he said of remaining open, adding, “I’m a preacher — I talk to God!”
Darwin Award Candidate?
This fool put his entire church at risk even if no others die.
😆 Lordy thank goodness we have a pile of experts at the Treasury with sophisticated computer models to be able to that out.
…………..the jobless rate is on track for 10 per cent, but the modelling reveals it would have been much worse if not for the $130 billion JobKeeper program.
Sanders has endorsed Biden.
The main reason seems to be that it is important to support Biden in order to get rid of Trump, whom Sanders believes is the worst president in modern times.
Notably, Sanders failed to take up Nicholas’ meme that Biden is (a) senile and (b) the subject of a ‘credible’, ‘plausible’ and ‘detailed’ allegation of rape by a perfectly credible allegator.
That’s bs about Corbyn’s ‘half-hearted’ attempts to stymie the Anti-Semitism in the UK Labour Party. You’re mischievously trying to perpetuate the ordeur against Corbyn by saying that. He wanted to deal with it decisively but was subject to a campaign to manipulate his response. His hands were tied behind his back by shenanigans, he did not do it voluntarily and behave in a tardy fashion due to personal desire not to take prompt action.
It is somewhat heartening that lunacy is cross-cultural. This dill is exactly like that Irianian chappy who was licking some sacred object in Qom – epicentre of the Iranian Virus and scene of open pit mass graves.
Will it be enough for Bernie Bros who have been using the hashtag #NeverBidenNeverTrump in the wake of Bernie’s withdrawal when the spectre of a second Trump term should be enough for these spoiled brats to vote Democrat in the election. Hopefully Bernie’s appeal can cut through the self absorption.
This point has been made by others elsewhere about the Democrats in general, but it bears repeating.
Wowee. Meanwhile Fauci is backpedalling on what he said in interview yesterday.
And now Trump giving his timeline. FMD.
Who knows. Some are not good faith players. They arent really for Bernie but for chaos.
Dont know how much longer I can listen to Trump rewriting history.
Stating the obvious!
Those stats are Treasury estimates, not ABS. I imagine that under current conditions they would be ‘soft’.
Untangling the reality would be interesting.
What happened to underemployment? I assume that most of these would now be unemployed.
How much unemployment have we exported overseas?
What happened to part time employees?
How are the counting sole traders/contractors who are now basically unemployed except that they are on jobkeeper?
Idiot Trump in full narcissistic flight at today’s presser.
When I heard Fauci say that thing I immediately thought , ‘He’s a goner!’
Meanwhile, a sailor from the USS Theodore Roosevelt has died.
‘An investigation is ongoing.’
As presaged here on Bludger, Trump may have done serious damage to his ‘defence’ vote.
I have had to switch it off.
Stockholm syndrome comes to mind
This is a very arrogant man.
BTW, BK, thank you.
I am prepared to stand up in court and swear to the fact that your daily service on Bludger is an ‘essential’ service!
7 new cases
0 new deaths
225 under treatment including Hospital in the Home
31 in ICU down 8
19 ventilated down 3
Targeted testing to anyone who requests a test in hot spots mainly in the city’s west
CNN has turned off the feed again. Trump is running an election rally.
Its all about statistics
1) The virus has to have been put there
2) It has to survive
3) You have to be there.
4) You have to pick it up
5)You have to put you hand to you face before you clean it.
Multiple points to change the probability of infection. Fretting over no 2 is not going to change things.
Trump can’t do his rallies anymore so he’s using his nightly press conferences to fulfil the same purpose.
I pegged Pell as an odious man 30 years ago.
Nothing has changed.
Today Trump took it to another level. It is to be expected but beyond disgusting.
From the NYT. A subtle message to their readers’ own “best health care in the world” ?
Before the virus started to bite and Australia was locked down the combined unemployment and underemployment rate was around 14% to 15%.
Going on the Treasury estimates ( interesting to see the basis of such modelling and what assumptions it is using ) we can expect the combined figure to reach 25% plus over the next months.
It would also be interesting to see how much lower estimates would be if the government had any interest in including the one million excluded casuals in the jobkeeper package.
I heard that one of the ICU/ventilator patients was a man in his 30s who was obese which I assume is one of the worse co-morbidities.
[‘Cardinal George Pell is being investigated over new child abuse allegations made by a different accuser according to reports.
The Victorian Police have been secretly investigating the claims according to an exclusive report from the Herald Sun. The accuser is a male who works in a professional role who made claims about alleged child sex abuse that date back to the 1970s.’]
The stock market and reality, moved to separate universes ?
Everything Is Awful. So Why Is the Stock Market Booming?
Vast swaths of American business are shuttered indefinitely. The economic quarter now underway will most likely feature Great Depression-caliber shrinkage in economic activity.
Yet at Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 was up 25 percent from its recent low on March 23.
That’s one way of describing Trumps presser today
The Daily Meltdown is on. He’s in rare form even for him.
There are now only 200 active cases in Victoria yet some people are saying the peak is coming in July. Am I wrong or are we just weeks away from beating this thing?
BK says: Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 8:10 am
CNN has turned off the feed again. Trump is running an election rally.
Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
Bravo to whomever cut away from that hot flood of horseshit.
One of the strongest predictors of social distancing behavior is attitudes toward climate change. From Vox in the US but just as true in Oz.
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 8:21 am
The stock market and reality, moved to separate universes ?
the market is factoring in a quick victory over the virus. It seems to be seeing a good July.
It’s a dangerous game Dr Fauci appears to be playing to me. Trying to hang on to his job until after November when he hopes the presidency changes is how I see it. So he goes along to get along and hopefully hang on till then.
CNN have gone back to it.
My OH is watching it.
You mean the Trump base?
Everything Trump touches dies.
July might be people mixing up flu season with this virus. It might be a top bit of luck that we got hit with this before winter though. It is has been speculated that the virus does its ‘best work’ then.