Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling

Two new polls suggest support for the federal government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis is still on the rise.

I’ll be taking part in the Political Geekfest videocast through Zoom with Peter Lewis of Essential Research and Katharine Murphy of the Guardian Australia at 1pm AEST today, which you can register for here. The subject of discussion will be this:

• The Guardian reports on another Essential Research poll focusing mostly on coronavirus, which would appear to be a weekly thing at least for the time being. The latest poll finds 59% rating the government’s response as about right, up from 46% last week and 39% in the two previous weekly polls; 13% rating it an overreaction, continuing its downward trajectory from 33% to 18% to 17%; and 29% rating it an underreaction, which bounced around over the first three weeks from 28% to 43% to 37%. Respondents were also asked to rate their state governments’ reactions, though with sample sizes too small to be of that much use at the individual level: the combined responses for very good and quite good were at 56% for New South Wales, 76% for Victoria, 52% for Queensland, 79% for Western Australia and 72% for South Australia. The poll also records a surprisingly high level of general morale, producing an average 6.7 rating on a scale of one to ten, unchanged from May last year. The full report should be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.

• Also apparently a weekly thing is Roy Morgan’s coronavirus polling, which is being conducted online and not by SMS as I previously assumed – indeed, I believe this is the first online polling Morgan has ever published. Last week’s tranche showed a sharp rise in approval of the government’s handling of the matter from a week previous, with 21% strongly agreeing the government was handling the matter well (up twelve), 44% less strongly agreeing (up ten), 23% disagreeing (down ten) and 6% strongly disagreeing (down ten). Respondents had also become more optimistic since the previous week (59% saying the worst was yet to come, down 26 points, 33% saying the situation would remain the same, up 22 points, and 8% expecting things to improve, up four), and, contra Essential, slightly more inclined to consider the threat was being exaggerated (up five points to 20%, with disagreement down six to 75%). The poll was conducted last weekend from a sample of 987.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling”

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  1. I hope all the PB ‘Jeremy Corbyn is an AntiSemite’ keyboard warriors hang their heads in shame today.

    From the previous thread:

    Ray (UK) (Block)
    Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 5:05 am
    Comment #1984
    Some ‘interesting’ developments out of UK Labour, involving Tom Watson and others, and a flurry of twitter activity complete with ‘leaks’

    One allegation is that Watson manipulated the NEC inquiry into Ken Livingstone to extend his suspension for 12 months – when Corbyn was pushing for expulsion – to drag out the anti-semitism furore to damage Labour and undermine Corbyn

    And a general campaign in the background – in the run up to the 2017 election – to undermine Corbyn from within

    As a Labour member I’m disgusted with it

    Shlomo #CorbynWasRight

    So Ken Livingstone was suspended for comments that offended Jewish people
    Tom Watson delayed the expulsion to make Corbyn look bad & make Corbyn look Anti-Semitic
    In other words Tom Watson used Jewish people as a football to hit Corbyn with

    Quote Tweet
    Mike (one of those Trots)
    · 19h
    This is the most damning quote I’ve found thus far: Emilie Oldknow saying she had Tom Watson delay the expulsion of Ken Livingston to embarrass Jeremy Corbyn, despite his demanding a resolution.
    Show this thread

    You were all so bloody sanctimonious and rained ire down upon those of us wanting to give Jeremy Corbyn at least the chance to explain his side of the story.

    I’m looking at you, briefly.

    But, of course, also at the usual sanctimonious poseurs.

  2. ‘God help us’: Americans horrified after Trump names Jared and Ivanka to his ‘Council to Re-open America’

    President Donald Trump on Monday announced his picks for his “Council to Re-open America” that will make recommendations on when to get Americans back to work during the coronavirus pandemic.

    However, many Twitter users were horrified to see that Trump had appointed daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner to the council, as the two have no experience in public health and are only qualified to serve due to their relationship with the president.

    Dr. Dena Grayson‏Verified account @DrDenaGrayson

    OMG…@realDonaldTrump’s “dream team” that’s advising on how/when to re-open America is a TOTAL nightmare.

    Not. A. Single. Doctor. Or. Scientist.

    Many THOUSANDS of Americans are DYING from this deadly #coronavirus, and this motley crew is supposed to “save” us

  3. I wonder if New York could save Trump’s ‘corona arse’ .They have had 10,000 deaths 50% of the US total. De Blasio and Cuomo are both Democrats.Not hard to imagine a Trump/Fox “look how bad things were where Democrats were in charge” type campaign. Remember ‘reality’ and ‘truth’ is so out of fashion these days.

  4. So how come Trump and his band of clowns in the clown car with him at the top of the White House tree, can decide when to ‘re-open America’ but it’s up to the Governors to do all the heavy lifting wrt fighting the COVID-19 virus?

    Anyway, we all know Ken and Barbie, sorry, Jarrad and Ivanka, will open America too soon and what they’ll end up with is Coronavirus all over their faces and a death-led Recession in America.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Malcolm Farr unpicks the latest Essential poll.
    Shane Wright tells us that Treasury modelling reveals the jobless rate is on track for 10 per cent, but the modelling reveals it would have been much worse if not for the $130 billion JobKeeper program.
    Idiot Trump has retweeted a call to fire his top infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci, amid mounting criticism of the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic.
    This is why the idiot is shitty.
    The poor bear the burden of the coronavirus downturn, but inequality is not inevitable in Australia writes Andrew Leigh.
    Peter Hartcher describes Chinese authorities’ latest wildlife trade outrage as mindbogglingly reckless.
    The editorial in the Canberra Times says that now is not the time to take the foot off the brake.
    The Australian tells us that Morrison has signalled his preference for the national cabinet to become a permanent decision-making body to manage the federation, with West Australian Labor Premier Mark McGowan arguing the COVID-19 leaders’ model should replace the Council of Australian Governments.
    We may have been too pessimistic about the success of lockdown. Now the health experts should take charge of a phased ending to social and economic restrictions, writes Andrew Mohl in the AFR.
    Australia needs to implement systemic tax reform as part of the country’s transition out of the coronavirus, and the current system risks younger Australians bearing the brunt of the government’s economic response, according to tax expert Robert Breunig.
    Deputy Commissioner Shane Patton has urged Victoria Police to issue fines for only the most blatant and deliberate breaches of the state’s lockdown regulations. He is concerned that confidence in the police is being eroded.
    Karen Maley reports that the RBA is warning of risks lurking in the residential property market as rising unemployment triggers a rise in people falling behind on their home loan repayments
    Co-operating with others in the virus fight is Beijing’s chance to resolve the strategic dilemmas it faces as a rising power writes Keyu Jin.
    The huge expansion of government spending must be subject to strict value for money assessment. The alternative will be brutal political fights to hang on to the new largesse. It’s Peter Hendy of course!
    Paul Bongiorno thinks the government stumbled at the last hurdle.
    Alexandra Smith reports that a crew member serving food is likely to be the source of the coronavirus that spread through the Ruby Princess.
    Tony Wright tells us that a justified Wayne Swan has given blessing to Frydenberg’s huge stimulus.
    Norm Abjorensen declares that decades of shrinking government have left it weakened in the COVID-19 fight. It’s difficult to disagree.
    Eradicating the virus completely while enforcing strict border controls is the best way to restore economic activity write John Daley and Stephen Duckett.
    The SMH editorial reckons that COVID-19 is a bad reason to subsidise local manufacturing.
    The Australian economy won’t recover from the coronavirus downturn until NSW and Victoria, and Sydney and Melbourne, get moving writes Shane Wright.
    Reuters looks closely at the oil deal, saying it is a short-term band aid, but offers long-term hope.
    Carrie Fellner reports that a NSW bureaucrat (in the Planning Department of all places) sacked by the same superior he complained about three days earlier escalated the matter to the Premier’s office, which then failed to respond to him for a year due to an “administrative error”.
    Scientists are inspecting sewage for traces of coronavirus with hopes it could be a rapid way to detect outbreaks. Max Koslowski tells us how researchers at the Australian National University hope to replicate results out of the Netherlands that found coronavirus traces in sewage long before cases of the virus were officially reported.
    Why is it so hard to stop COVID-19 misinformation spreading on social media?
    Michael Pascoe explains the ways in which out big debt can be managed. Some good, some bad.
    Michelle Grattan writes that Greg Hunt has said the goal of the government’s suppression policy is the “effective eradication” of the coronavirus in Australia – while at the same time casting doubt on the possibility of eliminating it.
    Isabelle Lane explains why we’re seeing some strange prices at supermarkets.
    The epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic has shifted from Wuhan, China, to Italy and now to the USA writes Alan Austin. He says that the reality is that America’s response to the pandemic has been disastrous.,13788
    Ending native forest logging in Victoria immediately, rather than phasing it out by 2030 as the state government plans, would save taxpayers $192m over the next decade, according to an estimate by the state’s independent budget office.
    A new set of guidelines will provide advice on who can wear medical masks and gowns and when, amid a global shortage intensified by stockpiling and misuse reports Aisha Dow.
    Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn says there are early signs of a slowdown in the number of new cries for help from mortgage customers seeking to have their payments delayed.
    In this moment of crisis, macho leaders are a weakness, not a strength opines Robin Dembroff.
    Trump’s coronavirus tsar Peter Navarro defended the administration’s pandemic response on CBS on Sunday night, angrily challenging his hosts to show him how they had covered pandemic preparations under previous administrations.
    The New York Times says Boeing was in deep trouble before the virus and wonders if it should it be rescued or not.
    Linked without comment.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre

    Alan Moir

    From the US

  6. I see that British Labour’s problems with anti-semitism run deeper than anyone had imagined possible.

    Not only was there a significant and systemic problem with anti-semitism inside the Party which was only belatedly (and half-heartedly) addressed by Corbyn, Corbyn’s internal political enemies were hypocritically mobilizing their personal anti-semitism to damage Corbyn. As Ray (UK) states, totally disgusting behaviour by Watson et al.

    Let’s hope that Starmer’s healing meeting with the leadership of a complete set of British national jewish organizations bears real fruit. In order for this to happen, Starmer will have to do what Corbyn never did do – act urgently with respect to the hundreds of complaints of anti-semitic behaviour inside British Labour. In order to expedite this, Starmer has promised to personally review each case.

    Starmer also has the option of engaging with ex Labor MPs and members, many of them previously Labor for life, who fled the Party in open revolt at their personal anti-semitic treatment and at the failure of the Party under Corbyn to address anti-semitism adequately.

  7. The White House denied Monday that President Trump is considering firing the nation’s top infectious-disease specialist, Anthony S. Fauci, after Trump retweeted a message Sunday night that included the hashtag “FireFauci” amid a flurry of Twitter activity responding to criticism of the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak.

    Which of course means he’ll be gone by the end of the week.


  8. Okay, I have an update on the infographic I shared yesterday about surface persistence of the Coronavirus which specifically refers to COVID-19:

    The data indicate that the stability of the new virus is similar to that of SARS-CoV-1, which caused the SARS epidemic, researchers report in an article published on the medRxivpreprint server. (A version of the article has been published online by the New England Journal of Medicine.)

    Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, has quickly outstripped the pace of the 2003 SARS epidemic. “Superspread” of the earlier disease arose from infection during medical procedures, in which a single infected individual seeded many secondary cases. In contrast, the novel coronavirus appears to be spread more through human-to-human transmission in a variety of settings.

    However, it’s not yet known the extent to which asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals spread the new virus through daily routine.

    To investigate how long SARS-CoV-2 remains infective in the environment, Neeltje van Doremalen, PhD, of the Laboratory of Virology, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in Hamilton, Montana, and colleagues conducted simulation experiments in which they compared the viability of SARS-CoV-2 with that of SARS-CoV-1 in aerosols and on surfaces.

    Among patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, viral loads in the upper respiratory tract are high; as a consequence, respiratory secretion in the form of aerosols (5 μm) is likely, the authors note.

    van Doremalen and colleagues used nebulizers to generate aerosols. Samples of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 were collecting at 0, 30, 60, 120, and 180 minutes on a gelatin filter. The researchers then tested the infectivity of the viruses on Vero cells grown in culture.

    They found that SARS-CoV-2 was largely stable through the full 180-minute test, with only a slight decline at 3 hours. This time course is similar to that of SARS-CoV-1; both viruses have a median half-life in aerosols of 2.7 hours (range, 1.65 hr for SARS-CoV-1, vs 7.24 hr for SARS-CoV-2).

    The researchers then tested the viruses on a variety of surfaces for up to 7 days, using humidty values and temperatures designed to mimic “a variety of household and hospital situations.” The volumes of viral exposures that the team used were consistent with amounts found in the human upper and lower respiratory tracts.

    For example, they applied 50 μL of virus-containing solution to a piece of cardboard and then swabbed the surface, at different times, with an additional 1 μL of medium. Each surface assay was replicated three times.

    The novel coronavirus was most stable on plastic and stainless steel, with some virus remaining viable up to 72 hours. However, by that time the viral load had fallen by about three orders of magnitude, indicating exponential decay. This profile was remarkably similar to that of SARS-CoV-1, according to the authors.

    However, the two viruses differed in staying power on copper and cardboard. No viable SARS-CoV-2 was detectable on copper after 4 hours or on cardboard after 24 hours. In contrast, SARS-CoV-1 was not viable beyond 8 hours for either copper or cardboard.

    “Taken together, our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 [SARS-CoV-2] are plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days,” the authors conclude.

    Andrew Pekosz, PhD, codirector of the Center of Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance and director of the Center for Emerging Viruses and Infectious Diseases at the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Health, Baltimore, Maryland, applauds the real-world value of the experiments.

    “The PCR [polymerase chain reaction] test used [in other studies] to detect SARS-CoV-2 just detects the virus genome. It doesn’t tell you if the virus was still infectious, or ‘viable.’ That’s why this study is interesting,” Pekosz said. “It focuses on infectious virus, which is the virus that has the potential to transmit and infect another person. What we don’t know yet is how much infectious (viable) virus is needed to initiate infection in another person.”

  9. Evangelical Pastor Who Mocked Social Distance Rules Dies of Covid19

    The New Deliverance Evangelistic Church pastor died from Covid19 after refusing to adhere to social distancing rules.

    In his last known in-person service on March 22, Bishop Gerald O. Glenn got his congregation at Richmond’s New Deliverance Evangelistic Church to stand to prove how many were there despite warnings against gatherings of more than 10 people.

    “I firmly believe that God is larger than this dreaded virus. You can quote me on that,” he said, repeating it a second time to claps, saying that “people are healed” in his church.

    “I am essential,” he said of remaining open, adding, “I’m a preacher — I talk to God!”

    Darwin Award Candidate?

    This fool put his entire church at risk even if no others die.

  10. 😆 Lordy thank goodness we have a pile of experts at the Treasury with sophisticated computer models to be able to that out.
    …………..the jobless rate is on track for 10 per cent, but the modelling reveals it would have been much worse if not for the $130 billion JobKeeper program.

  11. Sanders has endorsed Biden.

    The main reason seems to be that it is important to support Biden in order to get rid of Trump, whom Sanders believes is the worst president in modern times.

    Notably, Sanders failed to take up Nicholas’ meme that Biden is (a) senile and (b) the subject of a ‘credible’, ‘plausible’ and ‘detailed’ allegation of rape by a perfectly credible allegator.

  12. Boerwar,
    That’s bs about Corbyn’s ‘half-hearted’ attempts to stymie the Anti-Semitism in the UK Labour Party. You’re mischievously trying to perpetuate the ordeur against Corbyn by saying that. He wanted to deal with it decisively but was subject to a campaign to manipulate his response. His hands were tied behind his back by shenanigans, he did not do it voluntarily and behave in a tardy fashion due to personal desire not to take prompt action.

  13. dave
    It is somewhat heartening that lunacy is cross-cultural. This dill is exactly like that Irianian chappy who was licking some sacred object in Qom – epicentre of the Iranian Virus and scene of open pit mass graves.

  14. Victoria:

    Will it be enough for Bernie Bros who have been using the hashtag #NeverBidenNeverTrump in the wake of Bernie’s withdrawal when the spectre of a second Trump term should be enough for these spoiled brats to vote Democrat in the election. Hopefully Bernie’s appeal can cut through the self absorption.

    “I’m asking every Democrat, I’m asking every independent, I’m asking a lot of Republicans, to come together in this campaign to support your candidacy, which I endorse,” Sanders said. He added, “We’ve got make Trump a one-term president.”

    This point has been made by others elsewhere about the Democrats in general, but it bears repeating.

    The event underscored some key considerations for the Biden camp. First, Biden’s team has bent over backward to make certain Sanders’s supporters have no reason to oppose Biden or drag their feet getting behind the campaign. Second, for all the talk of task forces and common ground, Biden cannot afford to actually move to the left during the general election. He presumably knows this, so expect the task forces to put some pretty packaging around Biden’s agenda. And third, the media event actually underscores how progressive Biden’s platform has been from the beginning. He did not need Sanders’s help to support a $15 minimum wage, a robust green energy plan, easing rules for unionization, sick leave and workplace safety for workers, access to legal and safe abortions, LGBTQ rights and a slew of other items. The difference between the two is that Biden is willing to look for the common ground, move one step at a time and avoid scaring voters. That is, in large part, why Biden is the presumptive nominee and not Sanders (along with his record as vice president).

  15. Wowee. Meanwhile Fauci is backpedalling on what he said in interview yesterday.
    And now Trump giving his timeline. FMD.

  16. Fess

    Who knows. Some are not good faith players. They arent really for Bernie but for chaos.

    Dont know how much longer I can listen to Trump rewriting history.

  17. p

    Stating the obvious!

    Those stats are Treasury estimates, not ABS. I imagine that under current conditions they would be ‘soft’.

    Untangling the reality would be interesting.

    What happened to underemployment? I assume that most of these would now be unemployed.
    How much unemployment have we exported overseas?

    What happened to part time employees?

    How are the counting sole traders/contractors who are now basically unemployed except that they are on jobkeeper?

  18. V, Fess
    When I heard Fauci say that thing I immediately thought , ‘He’s a goner!’
    Meanwhile, a sailor from the USS Theodore Roosevelt has died.
    ‘An investigation is ongoing.’
    As presaged here on Bludger, Trump may have done serious damage to his ‘defence’ vote.

  19. BTW, BK, thank you.

    I am prepared to stand up in court and swear to the fact that your daily service on Bludger is an ‘essential’ service!

  20. Doug Cameron
    Pathetic interview by @karenandrewsmp defending “free trade”. We cannot manufacture essential items in Australia.
    When will these free trade , trickle down, devotees accept that dependence on international global value chains leaves us incapable of providing for the nation.

  21. NSW numbers
    7 new cases
    0 new deaths
    225 under treatment including Hospital in the Home
    31 in ICU down 8
    19 ventilated down 3
    Targeted testing to anyone who requests a test in hot spots mainly in the city’s west

  22. cat
    Its all about statistics

    1) The virus has to have been put there
    2) It has to survive
    3) You have to be there.
    4) You have to pick it up
    5)You have to put you hand to you face before you clean it.

    Multiple points to change the probability of infection. Fretting over no 2 is not going to change things.

  23. Before the virus started to bite and Australia was locked down the combined unemployment and underemployment rate was around 14% to 15%.

    Going on the Treasury estimates ( interesting to see the basis of such modelling and what assumptions it is using ) we can expect the combined figure to reach 25% plus over the next months.

    It would also be interesting to see how much lower estimates would be if the government had any interest in including the one million excluded casuals in the jobkeeper package.

  24. OC

    I heard that one of the ICU/ventilator patients was a man in his 30s who was obese which I assume is one of the worse co-morbidities.

  25. [‘Cardinal George Pell is being investigated over new child abuse allegations made by a different accuser according to reports.

    The Victorian Police have been secretly investigating the claims according to an exclusive report from the Herald Sun. The accuser is a male who works in a professional role who made claims about alleged child sex abuse that date back to the 1970s.’]

  26. The stock market and reality, moved to separate universes ?

    Everything Is Awful. So Why Is the Stock Market Booming?

    Vast swaths of American business are shuttered indefinitely. The economic quarter now underway will most likely feature Great Depression-caliber shrinkage in economic activity.

    Yet at Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 was up 25 percent from its recent low on March 23.

  27. That’s one way of describing Trumps presser today

    Claude Taylor
    The Daily Meltdown is on. He’s in rare form even for him.

  28. There are now only 200 active cases in Victoria yet some people are saying the peak is coming in July. Am I wrong or are we just weeks away from beating this thing?

  29. BK says: Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 8:10 am

    CNN has turned off the feed again. Trump is running an election rally.


    Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    Bravo to whomever cut away from that hot flood of horseshit.

  30. JohnQuiggin@JohnQuiggin
    One of the strongest predictors of social distancing behavior is attitudes toward climate change. From Vox in the US but just as true in Oz.

    Analyzing the data reveals that social distancing behavior is related to education; to race and ethnicity; to political identity and social capital; and to the impact that this virus has already had on the residents of particular counties. And the various sources of data also reveal a larger pattern.

    One of the strongest and most robust predictors of social distancing behavior is found in attitudes toward another major challenge facing the United States: climate change. Places where residents are less likely to agree that global warming is happening, that humans are the cause, and that we have an obligation to do something about it are the places where residents haven’t changed their behavior in response to coronavirus. The analysis makes clear that we have a collective action problem much larger than Covid-19.

  31. poroti says:
    Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 8:21 am

    The stock market and reality, moved to separate universes ?
    the market is factoring in a quick victory over the virus. It seems to be seeing a good July.

  32. It’s a dangerous game Dr Fauci appears to be playing to me. Trying to hang on to his job until after November when he hopes the presidency changes is how I see it. So he goes along to get along and hopefully hang on till then.

  33. nath

    July might be people mixing up flu season with this virus. It might be a top bit of luck that we got hit with this before winter though. It is has been speculated that the virus does its ‘best work’ then.

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