Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling

Two new polls suggest support for the federal government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis is still on the rise.

I’ll be taking part in the Political Geekfest videocast through Zoom with Peter Lewis of Essential Research and Katharine Murphy of the Guardian Australia at 1pm AEST today, which you can register for here. The subject of discussion will be this:

• The Guardian reports on another Essential Research poll focusing mostly on coronavirus, which would appear to be a weekly thing at least for the time being. The latest poll finds 59% rating the government’s response as about right, up from 46% last week and 39% in the two previous weekly polls; 13% rating it an overreaction, continuing its downward trajectory from 33% to 18% to 17%; and 29% rating it an underreaction, which bounced around over the first three weeks from 28% to 43% to 37%. Respondents were also asked to rate their state governments’ reactions, though with sample sizes too small to be of that much use at the individual level: the combined responses for very good and quite good were at 56% for New South Wales, 76% for Victoria, 52% for Queensland, 79% for Western Australia and 72% for South Australia. The poll also records a surprisingly high level of general morale, producing an average 6.7 rating on a scale of one to ten, unchanged from May last year. The full report should be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.

• Also apparently a weekly thing is Roy Morgan’s coronavirus polling, which is being conducted online and not by SMS as I previously assumed – indeed, I believe this is the first online polling Morgan has ever published. Last week’s tranche showed a sharp rise in approval of the government’s handling of the matter from a week previous, with 21% strongly agreeing the government was handling the matter well (up twelve), 44% less strongly agreeing (up ten), 23% disagreeing (down ten) and 6% strongly disagreeing (down ten). Respondents had also become more optimistic since the previous week (59% saying the worst was yet to come, down 26 points, 33% saying the situation would remain the same, up 22 points, and 8% expecting things to improve, up four), and, contra Essential, slightly more inclined to consider the threat was being exaggerated (up five points to 20%, with disagreement down six to 75%). The poll was conducted last weekend from a sample of 987.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling”

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  1. I wonder if freedom boys mind wandered to the nbn as he assembled this sentence

    My objective and my hope, I guess, and certainly I expect the prime minister and the Premiers’ objectives is to do this right, once, so we don’t have to repeat it.

  2. guytaur @ #1138 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 5:08 pm

    It’s Time

    I am no expert and never claimed to be.

    You will note I used explain in layman’s terms. Most of us are not experts in the field and are layman trying to understand.

    The management I talked about is to manage resources so the virus does not put people into ICU departments and especially not onto ventilators.
    That if that does happen we have the resources to cope.

    That means the virus in its dangerous phase to be eliminated. Thus mass testing so we know who has tested positive to the virus but survived.

    That’s why frontline people who have survived the virus are the best resource. You don’t have to worry about them being sick again.

    That’s why people worry about people not getting permanent immunity.

    That’s what I understand without being an expert.

    You have to understand that people will die from the virus even with all of the best medical equipment and drugs which we have today. And there is still a suspicion that the illness can cause heart problems for those who recover.

    Herd immunity without a vaccine is cited as requiring 60% of the population to become infected, recover and remain immune. That is 15 million Australians need to be infected. And even a 1% fatality rate after infection gives 150,000 deaths; mainly people over 60 or with comorbidities but even a smattering of people younger and otherwise healthy people. This needs to be avoided even if it is at a substantial cost.

    And the idea that frontline people can be used as cannon fodder because they will be more useful when they have been infected and recovered is bizarre, as well as immoral. You do know that medical staff have also died from this disease?!

  4. CC

    I agree about supression and elimination in terms of border control. For now.

    After the most vulnerable have survived the percentage needing hospital visits goes down.

    Just like with the flu.

    The big exception to that is the question can people have the dangerous life threatening phase twice? That’s the big unknown known that gives substance to go for safe and elimination and isolation on a permanent basis.

    If the answer to that is yes we are going to have to go for elimination out of necessity as we can’t cope with a permanent death toll for the vulnerable groups in such numbers as Trump is exposing the first wave people to.

    Edit: we have seen fear headlines on this but no evidence so far this is the case.

  6. He actually had the temerity to have a whinge about it!?!

    “In that conversation [the shopper said] ‘my eBay site has been shut down, so we couldn’t profiteer off that’,” Mr Drake told ABC Radio Adelaide.

    And is that what he puts on his tax return as his occupation…’Profiteer’.

    What a dropkick!

  7. A big rift between Morrison/Murphy and the Victorian CMO today:

    Chief Health Officer, Victoria
    @VictorianCHO
    My advice to the Victorian Government was and continues to be that to slow the spread of coronavirus, schools should undertake remote learning for term two.
    1/3
    3:40 PM · Apr 15, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
    401
    Retweets
    1.1K
    Likes

    Chief Health Officer, Victoria
    @VictorianCHO
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @VictorianCHO
    This is because having around a million children and their parents in closer contact with each other, teachers and other support staff has the potential to increase cases of coronavirus not just in schools but across the community. 2/3
    11
    111
    469

    Chief Health Officer, Victoria
    @VictorianCHO
    ·
    2h
    By having remote learning, it can contribute to physical distancing and therefore supports efforts to drive transmission down.
    3/3

  9. “The big exception to that is the question can people have the dangerous life threatening phase twice?”

    1. Research
    2. If necessary, re-testing.

  10. “The Bank of Canada embarked on its first ever large scale asset purchase program last month. The move to buy at least C$5 billion of Canadian government bonds each week, on top of almost C$100 billion of securities purchased under resale agreements, will help sop up the massive amount of debt the federal government is expected to issue in coming months to finance its stimulus package.”

    Let’s see what happens there in the long term.

    My guess – it’ll be ok.

  13. It’s Time

    “And there is still a suspicion that the illness can cause heart problems for those who recover.”

    Not to mention damaged lungs..
    Another reason why we should consider suppression as an absolute last resort.

  16. DM

    “Absolute elimination may never be achieved – have we eliminated the virus if we have zero cases for x weeks and then a plane load of Australians fly in from OS and some test positive?”

    They are all quarantined and tested. There is no difference between elimination and suppression in this regard. In BOTH scenarios we will need to have strict quarantine at the border.

  17. “Cud Chewer says:
    Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 5:47 pm
    “And is that what he puts on his tax return as his occupation…’Profiteer’.”
    Best laugh all day ”

    If he was truthful, Trump would put that as his occupation on his tax return.

  18. Gas fields seven times more polluting than estimate, think tank says

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/gas-fields-seven-times-more-polluting-than-estimate-think-tank-says-20200414-p54ju5.html

    The true climate impact of new onshore gas exploration and extraction has been underestimated by as much as seven times because the Victorian government excluded emissions produced when the gas is burnt.

    According to a new briefing paper from policy think tank the Australia Institute, the Andrews government’s estimates do not count emissions produced when the gas is burnt for heating, cooking or other end uses.

    Last month’s lifting of the long-standing moratorium on onshore exploration was welcomed by gas producers, unions and manufacturers, which had called for it to be abolished, but environment groups remain fiercely opposed, arguing onshore drilling will drive up greenhouse gas emissions.
    :::
    Richie Merzian, the institute’s climate and energy director, questioned why carbon dioxide produced when Victorian gas was burnt does not have to be included in emissions calculations.

    “The government needs to explain why the advice it used to lift the ban on more gas extraction so badly underestimated the impact this would have on the climate,” says Mr Merzian.

    “Gas is not a transitional fuel in the fight against climate change, it is part of the problem.”
    :::
    The decision to lift the moratorium will allow exploration and drilling for gas to commence from the middle of next year.

  19. “Cud Chewersays:
    Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 5:57 pm
    To those who are still saying elimination isn’t possible..”

    First hit

    “Although there are striking similarities between SARS and COVID-19, the differences in the virus characteristics will ultimately determine whether the same measures for SARS will also be successful for COVID-19. COVID-19 differs from SARS in terms of infectious period, transmissibility, clinical severity, and extent of community spread. “

  20. The Australia Institute

    Victorian Government ignores up to 88% of true emissions from new onshore gas

    https://www.tai.org.au/content/victorian-government-ignores-88-true-emissions-new-onshore-gas

    “In the cover of the pandemic, the Victorian Government has still found the opportunity to green-light new fossil fuel mining based on misleading research. At the same time, it has put off setting the ambitious emissions targets the state needs to guide recovery.”

    “Given Victoria has just been devastated by climate change fuelled fires, it is extraordinary that the Government is opening up a large new source of fossil fuel. When it comes to gas, the Victorian Government has its priorities around the wrong way.”

    The report by Mark Ogge and Tom Swann, ‘Emissions from Onshore Gas in Victoria’:

    https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/P891%20Victorian%20Onshore%20Gas%20Emissions%20Briefing%20Note%20%5BWeb%5D.pdf

  21. My guess – it’ll be ok.

    Of course it will be okay. Canada’s government doesn’t have to issue bonds in the first place. By issuing bonds it is just letting private entities swap one financial asset (reserves) for another (bonds). It is not a borrowing operation for the government. How do you earn, save, or borrow something that you create yourself with a keyboard?

    When the central bank buys government bonds, it is pushing up bond values, which has the effect of pushing down bond yields. The bond purchases are an instrument of monetary policy. It has very little macroeconomic impact. Some investors get a capital gain. Borrowers get lower interest rates.

    When government bonds are owned by the central bank (which is part of the government) and the bonds mature, the government makes a payment to itself. It is a meaningless and artificial exercise. Issuing the bonds in the first place was pointless. Bonds do not finance the government. Bonds are not necessary for monetary policy (there are much more straightforward ways of targeting interest rates).

  22. Blobbit nitpicks earlier..

    “I think that minimising the difficulty in actually coming to an agreed position that the virus has been “eliminated” tends to avoid one of the big problems with that strategy. ”

    An agreed protocol on what constitutes provisional elimination is a matter for experts, mathematicians and modellers. Leave it to them. Of course, we first need our government to wake up and smell the elimination roses…

    Hey, if in a couple of weeks several states are sitting at zero cases and have been for a while and the government is still talking about “flattening the curve” I’m not the only one that’s going to be laughing at them.

  23. Maybe the photographer said to bunch up for a photo but this is not a good image for a new business.

    As countless Canberra businesses grapple with an uncertain future, one new shop opened its doors this weekend to a successful start. (Canberra Times headline)

  24. Blobbit

    Yep, SARS was easier to eradicate. With covid19 we may have to lock the country down for a while before proceeding to elimination.

    Oh.. wait..

    My point is Blobbit that although parameters are different, the process is the same. Test. Trace. Reduce R(eff) to under 1.0. Wait.

    It works.

  26. “Cud Chewersays:
    Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 6:10 pm
    Blobbit

    My point is Blobbit that although parameters are different, the process is the same. Test. Trace. Reduce R(eff) to under 1.0. Wait.

    It works.”

    Yes, I do understand. My point, to do a Mundo (*waves*) is that there is going to be an upper bound to how long we can do that for.

    BTW – you reckon that requiring a protocol for “elimination” is nitpicking. Another one of your references (https://biomedgrid.com/pdf/AJBSR.MS.ID.001017.pdf) discussed whether SARS I could be claimed to have been eradicated. Without a clear and measurable definition of eradication, we’re still just guessing as to when to lift restrictions.

  28. Blobbit

    You weren’t nitpicking about the requirement for a protocol. You were nitpicking about people agreeing over a protocol. The way to get agreement is to leave it to the experts.

  29. The “design flaw ” of the JobKeeper program is that employees need to be paid before the ATO pays the employer in arrears ( 4 weeks ). Hearing of plenty of business’ that are refusing to sign up as they just don’t have any cash flow to cover this.

  33. Nicholas
    When government bond yields fall it reduces the cost of borrowing up the chain so yes there is a point to bonds. Government bonds act as the anchor for all borrowing across the economy.

  36. Peg

    As a follow up to your follow up on Brisbane council election the other day, it looks like the Greens candidate in Coorparoo has also got in front of the Labor candidate, by 25 votes.

    It seems the Greens are now in the 2PP count in 4 LNP held seats (Coorparoo, Paddington, Pullenvale and Walter Taylor), some pretty close. It also seems any Labor voters who extinguished their preferences has delivered the LNP status quo rather than a possible slim majority of one. No accounting for those who waste their votes sometimes, or electoral systems that favour such mixed systems for preferences in elections.

    On whole party vote only Greens and Independents got a boost. via ABC elections.
    BCC election results PV change

    LNP -4%
    Labor -0.4%
    Greens +3.3%
    Indepedents +1.4%

  37. “The Australian Financial Review is reporting that Deloitte has asked its staff to agree to a pay cut of 20% for five months.

    The AFR says the firm’s partners will also face a 25% pay cut as the company deals with the downturn caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Deloitte has about 10,000 staff and about 900 partners. “

    Which reminds me of the joke I like to tell consultants:

    What is the difference between a consultant and a shopping trolley?

    A shopping trolley can have a mind of its own.

  40. CC earlier. Yes, Tas Labor – while generally supportive of Gutwein’s response – is calling for a lot more testing.

    But, at least in Hobart, it looks like they will need to make it compulsory. There’s what looks to be an excellent drive-through facility at Salamanca and several virus clinics about town, but (I’m told) customers simply aren’t showing up.

    I think most people simply aren’t experiencing any symptoms. There have been no confirmed cases of community transmission in Hobart and bugger all cases in general: either one or none per day for the past week.

    Maybe it never came here to any significant extent.

  42. (Anecdotal) reports from Port Macquarie today of mass violations of beach closures, crowds in the streets.

    Paaaaarty on, bro!

  43. Lizzie,

    I was just appalled to hear your story today. If I had been there, I would have politely asked if you needed help (assuming that you may be worried about me having Corona virus) and then happily helped you.

    I am still amazed that no one offered help. However, I think it is because people do not feel “authorised” to help.

    One thing I notice about groups of academics / researchers / teachers etc. is that they are quite quick to make decisions about when to help / take responsibility for doing something.

    A trite example is when I go to pubs with my friends, we just rearrange the tables to suit our needed seating arrangements. This make some people very nervous, but I have only ever been pulled up on it once – in Cairns, at a remote beach bar, while we were visiting for an eclipse. The manager at the beach bar came over and told us on no uncertain terms to put the tables back exactly where they were and not to even think about moving tables again. I think we just all crowded around one table – no competition in the area, so we stayed to have our drinks. But we did not go back.

    My daughter and I were talking about this phenomenon earlier today, and we concluded that getting a tertiary education includes feeling enabled to take decisions, but also being willing to take responsibility for these decisions.

    I know that there are more than a few (mostly right wing) people who feel that we should be educating fewer people at a tertiary level, but seeing the obvious difference in confidence and behaviour, I really cannot agree.

    I suspect many people will take issue with this post, which is fine. It is just a subjective observation.

    Also, does your local Woolworths do “Click and Collect” on line? There is no charge for this service.

    Unfortunately we could not get my 85 year-old mother authorised for the Woolworths online, so we have gone with Coles, who have been pretty good.

    And I second advice to do as Cud Chewer did and ring the local Woolworths to ask about options.

  44. Not that it really matters that much, except to Scomo’s ego. But he has been claiming that Australia declared the pandemic “weeks” before the WHO.

    Well, no. It was matter of days.

    He declared the pandemic on Feb. 27. The WHO declaration came on March 11.

    That’s 13 days.

    Once a huckster, always a huckster.

  45. Ashley Draper on ABC Sydney TV news re. The Ruby Princess commission of inquiry : “Gladys probably knows the findings, and they will NOT be embarrassing her state government.”

  48. Gotta say I agree with criticism of the WHO, but don’t think starving them of funds is the way to press the point home.

  50. Boerwar

    Yes, that bit was v. good new that they have found something like that, readily done and seemingly pretty effective. No need for lots of “expensive machines that go ping! “

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