Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).
I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.
The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.
In other COVID-19 disruption news:
• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.
• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.
• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.
‘Quoll says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 1:07 pm
Boerwar @ #1456 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:51 am
Q
What is the evidence of a causal link (as opposed to selected correlations) between habitat destruction and an increase in new zoonotic diseases?
Did they control for:
(a) increased human population
(b) increased density of human population
(c) increased volume and speed of human travel
(d) increased human consumption of wildlife.
Dotard level analysis and wilful ignorance of scientific literature
Say something useful when you’ve got more than any empty opinion on the matter’
Uh huh. So your contribution is personal abuse.
I remain curious about the formulation that clearing habitat increases the incidence of zoonotic diseases because it increases human/wildlife interactions.
In terms of zoonotic diseases, clearing habitat is highly correlated with increased human/domestic animal interactions. So much habitat has now been cleared that there are a billion cattle, a billion sheep, well over a billion pigs, around 23 billion domestic fowl, over a billion domestic dogs, and around half a billion domestic cats. These now interact with 7.5 billion humans.
Additionally, the wildlife trade is immense, with millions of individuals from the wild traded every year, BV.
Additional, there is a huge wildlife trade for food. BV, over a million pangolins were traded a year for food. Fruit bats are eaten in many nations.
Habitat destruction is highly associated with increased human populations. Apart from commensals many, if not most species of wildlife have suffered reductions in both range and in populations.
Which brings us to habitat. The operating principle is that as habitat decreases the population of species that depend on the habitat is reduced. It follows that the absolute potential for wildlife/human interactions is reduced as wildlife habitat is reduced. Further, destroy the habitat totally and the individuals that depend on that habitat die.
The notion that massive reductions in habitat is leading willy nilly to increased human/wildlife interactions, and hence to an increase incidence of new zoonotic diseases, not only lacks substantial evidence, it also lacks rigorous demonstration of causality.
In fact, the reverse is far more likely. The less habitat there is the fewer species and the lower the numbers of wildlife there are, and therefore the smaller potential is for human/wildlife interaction. At the extreme, extinction cuts the human/wildlife interaction absolutely. We have entered the Anthropocene Extinction Era.
Several trends apply:
1. Increased interaction between humans and pets.
2. Increased interaction between humans and domestic animals – including an increased consumption of domestic animals.
3. Increased human interactions with wildlife as food.
4. Increased numbers of humans.
5. Increased density of humans.
6. Increased travel by humans.
7. Increased speed of travel by humans.
The theory that habitat destruction is causing an increase in the incidence of new zoonotic pandemics would have to take all these variables into account.
Nothing I have seen in the literature does so.
Barney in TB,
You have air conditioning, no? Otherwise, how do you sleep!?!
lizzie:
I’d have thought the risk of us contracting coronavirus off surfaces would be extremely low, except perhaps for people working in EDs or dedicated screening clinics.
Confessions @3:15
More clueless reporting sadly.
C@tmomma @ #1600 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 1:29 pm
A/C!!!
What’s that?
That’s the bad thing about going to work, having to sit in the cold and not having any warm clothes.
Nah, a fan is all you need.
Occasionally it gets down to the low 20s at night and I have to turn the fan off.
Brrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!! 🙂
yabba
“I shall now read from the book of Mathew, Mark, Luke and duck!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veG4f1WCQKI
C@t
It does rather show how easy it is for cold viruses to hang about a population that lives in built environments, though. 🙂
WA still seeing cruise cases
Jerrie Demasi
@JerrieDemasi
·
3m
UPDATED WA COVID19 STATISTICS:
6 new cases today.
2 West Aussies.
4 foreigners from the Artania.
Aged 33-70yo.
Total 523 cases.
251 recovered.
266 active.
28 in hospital (down by 10 since yday).
14 in ICU.
Blobbit do they count the foreigners in the total?
“Confessionssays:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 3:31 pm
lizzie:
I’d have thought the risk …”
This still seems to be one of the better recent bits of research on how the disease has been transmitted.
“No evidence of live viruses on surfaces
…
However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. “This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of ‘dead’ viruses,” Streeck said’
Large gatherings seem to be the biggest risk factor.
https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-german-scientists-hope-to-find-answers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot
“Cud Chewersays:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 3:43 pm
Blobbit do they count the foreigners in the total?”
I’m actually not entirely sure. I think they’re counting cases who are stuck in WA. I’m not sure how many of those are foreigners at this stage.
Though reading more closely what I posted, 4 of today’s cases are “foreigners” and they’ve been added to the total.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga
Re ‘just the fan’ . Was amazed to find that is so when the central aircon of the apt. I was staying at in Darwin packed it in during the Build Up , not fixed for nearly a fortnight. Thought I’d ‘die’ but a fan was all that was needed.
Aircon has one danger you would have come across up there. Those that wear glasses when walking from cool aircon room out into muggy air get insta fog vision 🙂 Aircon in cars can also be fun in high humidity. Nothing like the inside of the windows fogging up while driving for some excitement. 🙂
p
What about obesity and aircon, especially in the mango season?
Boerwar
Obesity and the Lockdown will be next up. Dieting related businesses will be in for ‘happy times’ come the end of the lock down. Them and AA 🙂
poroti
The sale of sex toys tripled in NZ..
Victoria,
My polite question was whether there was a shred of evidence ….a polite answer would have sufficed, as per Kay Jay and Poroti’s responses.
The ridicule was unnecessary.
Back to the comfort of lurking.
WA testing changes “PCR testing will be expanded to “no less than 8 locations” around Perth in the coming days for anyone with a referral from a GP.”
So a further relaxation from needing to turn up to a clinic with one of the symptoms.
poroti @ #1610 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 1:47 pm
I never had A/C in Australia and always found a fan blowing the air over you more than enough for those hot nights in summer.
Yes, fogging glasses can be an issue. 🙂
Confessions:
Hyperventilating hypothecation!
Cooperate With China on Coronavirus But Don’t Trust It
By Hal Brands
The most compelling call for U.S.-China cooperation on the coronavirus comes from dozens of former U.S. officials and foreign policy experts, who signed an open letter organized by the Asia Society and the University of California-San Diego. The statement is sober and sensible.
It does not gloss over China’s dishonest and damaging initial response to the outbreak, or ignore the blatant untruths Beijing has spread about the origins of the virus.
It is also important to remember just how little help China has so far contributed. Beijing has made a great show of providing masks, tests and other medical supplies to countries in need. But many of these supplies have proved defective, apart from the fact that they were sold, rather than given.
Meanwhile, China has threatened — through its official press — to push the U.S. into “the mighty sea of coronavirus” by withholding pharmaceuticals.
The Communist Party has withheld precisely what would be most useful, accurate information about how the virus started and what proportion of the Chinese population it infected, because it can’t provide that information without undermining its legitimacy and prestige.
Lingering in the background is U.S. officials’ long-held suspicion that China maintains an offensive biological weapons program, in violation of its international obligations.
This isn’t an argument against seeking greater coronavirus cooperation from China. It is good news that the Trump administration has toned down its “China virus” rhetoric, a label that is accurate but also counterproductive right now. The U.S. absolutely should encourage Beijing to share all it knows about the virus and methods for battling it.
Washington should be transparent in discussing its own lessons learned. When a vaccine is found, it will need to be distributed globally.
Yet we should be clear that whatever cooperation China provides is likely to be incomplete and self-interested. Beijing will also seek maximum diplomatic benefit from any role it plays in beating the coronavirus.
There is no reason to expect a departure from the broader pattern of deception and subterfuge often associated with authoritarian regimes. To paraphrase Reagan, a coronavirus détente could well be a good idea, so long as we keep its limitations in mind.
Hal Brands is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist
Full story –
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-12/china-can-t-be-trusted-in-fight-against-coronavirus?srnd=premium-asia
BW = PB’s own Lord Monkton of zoonotic diseases and pandemics
Evidence free opinion to the last
‘poroti says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 3:50 pm
Boerwar
Obesity and the Lockdown will be next up. Dieting related businesses will be in for ‘happy times’ come the end of the lock down. Them and AA ‘
IMO a hidden consequences of the Virus is that the sun and the yardarm have a changed physical relationship.
‘Quoll says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 3:58 pm
BW = PB’s own Lord Monkton of zoonotic diseases and pandemics
Evidence free opinion to the last’
Uh huh. Perhaps you could provide your considered opinion, with evidence, of how massive habitat destruction increases wildlife/human interactions? Did you count drop bears?
Did the savants control for commensals, the wildlife food trade, the pet trade, domestic animals, and feral animals? No.
Did they control for human population numbers and densities? No.
Did they actually count habitat destruction related interactions between humans and wildlife and then directly relate these in a rigorous causal way to new zoonotic diseases? No.
Do you even try to address these issues? No.
Do you habitually substitute reasoned discussion with personal abuse? Yes.
Boerwar @ #1601 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 3:28 pm
This may seem correct if you don’t bother doing even the merest skerrick of either thinking or research.
Meher:
As Bucephalus pointed out, there are logical reasons for preferring people to leave the city if/when they are able, such as to stay at a holiday house (for a substantial period). as this both provides protection to those who move and reduces the effective population density remaining in the city, thereby reducing potential transmission there (though only to a minor degree). It’s quite possible the unfortunate Mr Harwin in NSW is correct in his view.
This needs to be balanced against the increased risks from people moving round and reduced access to healthcare in the country, but it’s not clear which approach should be followed.
One thing seems clear – reversing the centralisation of population into the cities will improve our resistance to the next viral pandemic.
E. G. Theodore @ #1625 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:11 pm
Yes, it is.
p1
1. Just so we get it all sorted from the outset, whatever you say because you always have the last word and you are always correct.
2. Which continents have by far and away the largest of habitat destruction as a percentage of original habitat, and which continents have contributed least to new zoonotic diseases? Why did these continents get it so wrong?
3. Where is the statistical evidence that habitat destruction (eg forest clearing) increases interactions between wildlife and humans instead of reducing it.
4. If you cleared all the forest as far as the eye can see around your house, replaced it with introduced grass species, sheep and cattle you will have caused massive habitat destruction and considerably reduced your interaction with wildlife. New zoonotic diseases relating to wildlife need not apply. New zoonotic diseases relating to domestics, commensals and ferals, OTOH…
5. If, instead, you captured koalas, lyrebirds, fruitbats, and echidnas for the asian wet market trade you would have vastly increased human/wildlife interactions – both because you are in natural habitat, because you are handling these creatures, because the people transporting the creatures are handling them, because the people selling them are handling them, because the people killing and cooking them are handling them and because people are eating them. Ditto, bushmeat in Africa.
Chrisken
My response was not impolite.
E. G. Theodore
I look it as an equity/solidarity issue. This slogan doesn’t quite work “We’re all in this together…………………..except those of us wealthy enough to retreat to our holiday home in a secluded spot”
poroti @ #1629 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:20 pm
It doesn’t sit well with the much large number of people who were denied their caravan or camping holidays or renting a holiday house.
Hmmmm. Slightly on topic.
I have been caring for a juvenile lorikeet for a few days – found in the mouth of neighbours dog. It probably has a highly contagious virus (PBFD) that cause juveniles be without tail or wing feathers – it is so common they are called ‘runners’. Google says to have it put down. So have been keeping it as happy as I can till the vet opens tomorrow.
However, I should double take and check that direction is not a cop out. I am able to isolate the bird (I have a spare chicken coup). I have lorikeet food now. And with kids home the bird will get some attention. I dont like the idea of it being caged but… well it cant fly anyway. It will either quickly succumb to the disease (which wont be nice for it) or recover. Probably the former. Google says lorikeets in particular can survive the disease and regrow its feathers (one site says a 1/3rd will do this)… but will likely always be contagious.
So the other option is to wait and see. If it survives and regrows its feathers I can have it tested for the virus with the potential for release.
What do peeps think? Lizzie?
Boerwar @ #1627 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:16 pm
Finally, you say something sensible.
Player One @ #1630 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:24 pm
How Donald Trump of you.
Simon Katich
Sorry, I’m no expert on bird diseases. I’d take the vet’s advice.
Movements of large numbers of people to holiday homes and back, even if it’s all in a sealed container (car), will transport the virus around. Unless they bring all their supplies with them, they will be going to shops and interacting with locals.
On the other hand, there may be exceptions that could be defined. I remember one poster here a week or so back (Bucephalus?) wanted to take his elderly mother to stay with a relative in the country. The mother lives in a high rise building in a capital city, so lots of neighbours touching lift buttons, handrails on stairs, common door handles, etc. That would have been a reasonable exception – vulnerable person (age, possible chronic conditions), vulnerable location.
Poroti:
Given competent management, the point at which the “bend” occurs seems to be an increasing function of population. This is reflected in the relative bends the Australian states, as well as in New Zealand, and supports the idea of divide and conquer.
Japan has simply not “bent” yet, but neither have they lost control so there is every reason to believe they soon will. The advantage they have is that there is now much better information than was available a month ago.
Given Singapore’s geographical situation, their population density and the fact their economy is very trade exposed, them avoiding a disaster is really quite extraordinary.
Travel to a holiday home. Essential or non essential ? Seems an easy question.
No wonder his fans adore him. This is the height of logic. He’s the best.
GG: ‘How Donald Trump of you.’
And how perceptive are you.
p
Most peeps I know who have holiday homes seem to spend inordinate time cleaning and repairing and maintaining two houses instead of one.
Steve777
The best approach might be to move to the country for a substantial period, i.e. to holiday homes but not back to the city. This is of course difficult to explain and enforce.
Measure it and see what the effect was.
PeeBee @ #1637 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:34 pm
Smarter than the average Boer!
As long as people exercise social-distancing when out buying essential goods there’s no logical reason to ban people isolating at their holiday homes.
S777
Agree, it’s not black and white. On the one hand you don’t want a whole bunch of people dispersing from virus hotspots to and throughout the rest of country. On the other hand some may be able to isolate more effectively.
SK
While we are on the topic, it may also be carrying psittacosis, so do take care when handling it.
https://www.ccohs.ca/oshanswers/diseases/psittacosis.html
“logical reason to ban people isolating at their holiday homes.”
Extra potential load on rural and regional hospitals.
People carrying the virus into areas where it may not have spread
Extra risk of accidents in people traveling
The first two being the main risks.
Anyway, shouldn’t we be taxing holiday homes out of existence
(Just quietly, buying a jigsaw was so bad, but letting people go to their holiday homes is A-OK?!(
The main general operating principle would have to be the less movement and the fewer variations in patterns of connection, the better.
Don’t get into a car at all. Stay at home. All the time. Don’t get with others. All the time. If you shop at two shops and buy petrol at two stations as opposed to shopping in one shop and buying petrol at one station you are minimizing connections. Then you multiply the principle by hundreds of thousands of iterations.
I wouldn’t be letting anyone into a car unless it was for essential purposes.
Greensborough Growler @ #1633 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:27 pm
Whereas you still have a ways to go.
Player One @ #1624 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:08 pm
Yes, you’d think it would be easier for BW to just point out their detailed peer reviewed literature review in a high impact and widely regarded journal on zoonotic disease for everyone’s benefit. Rather than rambling in the glazomaniacal fashion. Perhaps the Journal of Glazomania could be a suitable medium.
My cootamundra wattle has turned a lovely autumnal pink this year and appearing to turn deciduous. Never done that before.